Chapter 3
Business Cycle Management


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Figure 3.1  Idealized Business Cycles

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Figure 3.2  Percentage Deviations from Trend in Real GDP from 1947--2003

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Figure 3.3  Time Series Plots of
x and y

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Figure 3.4  Correlations Between Variables y and x

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Figure 3.5   Imports and GDP

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Figure 3.6  Scatter Plot of Imports and GDP

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Figure 3.7  Leading and Lagging Variables

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Figure 3.8  Percentage Deviations from Trend in Real GDP (colored line) and the Index of Leading
Economic Indicators (black line) for 1959–2003

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Figure 3.9  Percentage Deviations from Trend in Real Consumption (black line) and Real GDP (colored
line)

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Figure 3.10  Percentage Deviations from Trend in Real Investment (black line)and Real GDP (colored
line)

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Figure 3.11  Scatter Plot for the Percentage Deviations from Trend in the Price Level (the Implicit
GDP Price Deflator) and Real GDP

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Figure 3.12  Price Level and GDP

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Figure 3.13  Percentage Deviations from Trend in the Money Supply (black line) and Real GDP
(colored line) for the Period 1959–2003

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Figure 3.14  Percentage Deviations from Trend in Employment (black line) and Real GDP (colored
line)

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Figure 3.15  Percentage Deviations from Trend in Average Labor Productivity (black line) and Real
GDP (colored line) for 1948–2003

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t3-1
Table 3.1  Correlation Coefficients and Variability of Percentage Deviations from Trend

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t3-2
Table 3.2  Summary of Business Cycle Facts