Climate change impact on the mountain environment in Peruvian Andes and Tien Shan Mountains in Kyrgyzstan Prof. Dr. Bohumir Jansky Charles University in Prague, Faculty of Science, Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology logo_kontur Obr_1_color New research project - funded by the Czech Science Foundation “Natural Hazards of the Amazon River Sources Territory Caused by the Global Climate Change” STUDY AREA The Peruvian Western Andes (Cordillera Occidental) – altitudes higher than 5000 m → The watershed between Pacific and Atlantic Oceans 1.Cordillera Huayhuash (10° S.) 2.Cordillera Chila (15° S.) – distance N-S about 1000 km. •Comparing of two areas: •1. Marañon River headstream area (humid) - mountain steppe páramos •2. Ucayali – Apurímac (Amazon) headstream area (arid) • – mountain steppe puna • •Western hillsides: •Costa – zone along the Pacific coast (aridity growth to the south) → desert area and vegetation of type lomas in fog layer garúa. • - periodical effect El Niño (El Niño – Southern Oscillation): temperature increase → heavy rain → natural disaster (increase of glacier melting, • debris flows - huaycos, outburst of glacial lakes, floods, landslides). • Specially strong El Niño in 1982/83, 1997/98 and 2016/2017 • •Oriental hillsides and the tableland: humidify – under the influence of trade wind from Atlantic ocean • •Partnership in Peru: •National Hydrometerological Institute SENAMHI (Servicio Nacional de Meterología e Hidrología) Peru_sat kopie Rio Marañon Rio Ucayali • • Rio Amazonas C_Chila •Headwaters territory of the Amazon River • • • • ledovce_GIS •Headwaters territory •of the Amazon River (in 2000) 3Dair •3D model of the headwater territory of the Amazon river • • •km 0 obr •Laguna Bohemia – left source of the Carhuasanta River obr •Right headwaters stream of the Carhuasanta River obr Glaciation in 2000 • The glaciation was restricted to the highest parts of mountain ranges in the eastern part of the Cordillera Chila. There are four glaciers in the catchment area of the Carhuasanta and Apacheta rivers that extend over a surface of 1.54 km² out of total 57.15 km². • The snowline altitude varies from 5250 to 5300 m. • • Over the 20th century, the glaciers of an observed area have undergone rapid retreats: glaciers experienced a 60 % decrease in surface area since 1955. • Glaciers disappeared from 2000 to 2007 completely and fields of perennial snow persisted in the highest areas only • air1955-99 Glacier retreat since 1955 to 1999 34kajicnici Glaciers dynamic in the Amazon River headwaters territory since 1955 to 2000 •Glacier • • •Area [km2] • • •Difference •% • • •Max. alt. •[m] • • •Min. alt. •[m] • • •Orientation • • •1955 • • •2000 • • •Mismi • • •0.57 • • •0.45 • • •21 • • •5628 • • •5250 • • •NW • • •Chayco • • •0.72 • • •- • • •100 • • •5200 • • •5150 • • •NW • • •Quehuisha • • •0.97 • • •0.20 • • •79 • • •5358 • • •5250 • • •N • • •Calomoroco • • •0.42 • • •- • • •100 • • •5340 • • •5200 • • •NE • • •Ccaccansa • • •0.66 • • •0.51 • • •23 • • •5435 • • •5250 • • •S • • •Cututi • • •0.50* • • •0.38 • • •24 • • •5360 • • •5200 • • •S • • •Total • • •3.84 • • •1.54 • • •60 • • •5628 • • •5150 • • • • • • obr The watershed between Pacific and Atlantic Oceans 007 •Carhuasanta River and Nevado Mismi (5628 m) • • fig3_08 kopie • •Distribution of soils in the Amazon River headstream area obr Die Talvegetation „Champa“ (Distichia muscoides) klistan1 •The climatic station at the Amazon’s source, located at 5075 m above sea level: it was the highest located station in Peru. In background Nevado Mismi (5628 m). • •Air temperature, soil temperature and solar radiation at the Amazon’s source. The climatic station of the Charles University in Prague (5075 m a.m.s.l., period 30.7. - 6.8. 2008. •air temperature •soil temperature (0.1 m) •radiation • obr obr obr D:\Fuji_dokumnety\Dokumenty\Santiago_2011\Lloquetta.jpg •Average daily and monthly discharges in the Lloqueta River (headwaters territory of the Amazon River) and line of trend of monthly discharges. Period: 24.4. 2008 – 16.7. 2011 • C_Huay •Headwaters territory of the Marañon River obr obr Durchflussmessungen in Rio Lloqueta 2016-11-15 20 •The new climatic station at the Amazon’s source, located at 5280 m a. s. l. •The highest located station in Amerika (5 280 m n.m.), from November 2016. IMG_4279 Cordillera Huayhuash, Nevado Yerupaja (6617 m) Cordillera Huayhuash De NASA - http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8924, Dominio público IMG_6665 •Proglacial Cangrajanca Lake IMG_4581 •Dangerous Cangrajanca lake with periodical outburst. The lake basin is filled from the Yerupaja glacier. 09_splaz_yeru •Yerupaja glacier retreat (1957 – 2008) • Total retreat: 230-350 m, annual retreat: 4 – 7 m. 09_sesuv •The relief changes •in the valley of Carhuacocha river after lanslide from 8.3. 2009 • •Lake outflow •Proglacial lake •The new dammed lake •Central moraine Rainfall-related debris flows in Carhuacocha Valley •The debris flow was triggered by cumulative rainfall combined with an extreme precipitation event: •From the end of January to the beginning of March 2009, the Cordillera Huayhuash experienced abnormally high precipitations at exceeded 270mm. • •The annual precipitation at the nearby Cajatambo station • (distance 25 km) is 563 mm. •From January 25 to March 7 – 270 mm •10 days prior to flow – 56,2 mm •24 h prior to flow – 18,4 mm • •The new lake (E) damed by the landslide (A,B,C,D) •New hydrographic situation • after landslide: • •→ water percolated through the moraine dam of Cangrajanca Lake •→ lateral moraine disturbed by groundwater erosion • •Lateral moraine: disturbed by groudwater erosion Conclusions •The monitoring has confirmed a falling trend in the flow rate, following the retreat of area glaciers. •At present, the Cordillera Chila mountain range no longer has any glaciers. The last of them melted between 2000 and 2007. •The Cordillera Huayhuash mountains show a relatively slow retreat of valley glaciers in comparison with the neighboring Cordillera Blanca range → since 1957, glaciers have retreated at an average annual rate of 4 to 7 m, summary by 230 to 350 m. •Systematic measurements of soil temperatures have shown an absence of long-term frozen soils in locations up to 5150 m above sea level. •The lower boundary of the zone of mountain permafrost is, therefore, located higher than the literature indicates for this area. •Kyrgyz Republic •Area: 198 500 km2 •Average relief altitude is 2 750 m a.s.l. •40 % of surface at the altitude above 3 000 m •Highest point: Pik Pobedy 7 439 mts a. s. l. •Population 5,3 millions •94 % of surface at the altitude above 1 000 m Projects of the Czech Development Cooperation •Monitoring of high-mountain glacial lakes and protection of population against catastrophic consequences of floods caused by moraine dam failure (2004-2007). • •Risk analysis and limiting the consequences of high-mountain lake dam failure (2007-2010). • •Project funded by NATO SPS • • Glacier hazards in Kyrgyzstan: implications for resource • development and water security in Central Asia • (2012-2013) P1010003 P1010007 P1010019 P1010104 •Natural hazards • in Kyrgyzstan •debris-flows •landslides •floods •The hazardous alpine lakes in Kyrgyzstan •1923 lakes covering more than 0.1 km² •100 lakes more than 1 km² •328 potentially dangerous lakes • 15 actually dangerous lakes • 30 of high potential hazard •95 % of population lives in dangerous river valley zones •Outburst thermokarst lake in Shakhimardan (1998) •More than 100 victims Lakes after outburst Outburst of Zyndan glacial lake, 24th of 2008 Genetic classification of lakes • •Monitoring of the mountain lakes in Kyrgyzstan was aimed mainly at evaluation of dam stability with regard to the risk of lake rupture and consequent occurrence of flood and stone flows ("sels"). •Genetic types of lakes in high mountain regions of Kyrgyzstan (according Jansky, Sobr and Yerokhin 2006): • tectonic, glacier, morainic-glacier, morainic, lakes • dammed by a rock step and lakes dammed by a landslides •Typology of alpine lakes •Nonhazardous lakes •Hazardous lakes •Tectonic •Riegel •Glacial •Moraine-glacial •Moraine •Moraine-riegel •Dammed •Dammed by glacier •Interglacial •Intermoraine •Thermokarst •By landslide •By debris-flow •Dammed by landslide P1010070 •Tectonic lakes •Issyk - Kul Merzbacher •Glacial (proglacial) lakes: •dammed by a glacier, situated directly in the body of a glacier or in the moraine on its contact •Glacier South Inylcek •Merzbacher lake •Glacier North Inylcek Intraglacier lakes: formed in hollows of glaciers, mostly in places of large icefalls with a complicated system of underground canals Aksaj_ledovec1_97 •Glacier Ak - Sai P1010066 •periodical Ak-Sai lake Aksaj_udoli7 Udoli_AlaArca2_118 •Stone flow (sel) after rupture of Ak–Sai lake in 1985 and 2014 P1010004 • •Holiday residence of President of Kyrgzystan Morainic-glacier lakes: a) subtyp – lakes of intramorainic depressions This type is developing in basins of intramorainic depressions after retreat of a glacier •Petrov lake Morainic-glacier lakes: b) subtyp lakes of thermokarstic depressions • • • • Kumtor_termokras1_84 P18a P13 Lakes dammed by a landslides: large volume → therefore rupture is very dangerous Koltor_hraz5 •landslide •periodical outflow •Koltor lake P1010032 •Overflow 19/ 7/ 2004 •Overflow 6/8/2006 •Overflow 28/7/2014 •Koltor lake: Superficial outflow after intensive precipitation • •Koltor lake – new trouble P1010018 •Erosion furrow •at outer side of lake dam • Development of precipitations •and temperature •Baytyk station 1 579 mts a.s.l. •Precipitations: •15 years cycle until 1966, •Change to 20 years cycle. •Steep increase since •middle of nineties. •Temperature: •Regular 20 years cycle. •Clear correlation between •precipitations and temperature •In the middle of sixties •and eighties •Highest number of •disastrous outbursts •in 1965-70, 1983-88, 1997-99 • • • Petrov lake: an extremely dangerous evolution C:\Users\mira\Desktop\KGZ_vrtulnik_Adygine\IMG_8774.JPG Petrov lake : an extremely dangerous evolution • •Moraine-glacial lake: developed in basin of intramorainic depression after retreat of Petrov glacier. •Is located in the foreground of the same-called glacier on the north-western slope of Ak-Sijrak massive in southern Tien-Shan. •The moraine-glacial lakes are considered as the most dangerous type including 47 % of listed lakes. •Petrov glacier is 69.8 km² large and 23 km long. • SATEL NAHLED •Tailings dam •Petrov Lake •Gold mine Kumtor •Petrov Glacier • •Satelite image of the Petrov Lake area (QuickBird 2003) • •Charles University in Prague 2006 • • •Petrov Glacier •bathymetry degl • •Petrov Glacier retreat (1957-2014) Total retreat (m) Annual retreat (m/y) 1869-1957 1330 15.1 1957-1980 570 24.8 1980-1990 380 38.0 1990-1999 390 43.3 1999-2014 710 47.3 •Morphology of Petrov glacier Petrova_general_view •The lakes of thermokarstic depressions Kumtor_Petrova12_68 •superficial outflow •narow part of the dam • •The moraine dam of the Petrov lake •Geophysical survey of Petrov lake dam •Resistivity tomography Conclusions I • The thermokarst processes caused by melting of • the buried ice in the moraine dam of the Petrov lake • most danger and very dynamic development. • • The surface area and volume of the retained water • in the Petrov lake increase considerably. •Enlarging of the lake size and volume together with weakening of moraine stability causes an extremely dangerous situation which could result in a large-scale natural catastrophe. • •In the case of the dam rupture the storage facility of highly toxic waste on the territory of the gold mine Kumtor could be washed out. • •Glacial complex Adygine • •Adygine research station •Adygine research station 3 700 mts a.s.l. •Klimatická stanice Adygine, 3700 m n.m., se satelitním přenosem, •instalace červenec 2017 The research programme of the station is aimed at: Monitoring of hazardous lakes • Meteorological observations Hydrological measurments Glaciological research Other researches (geological, botanical etc.) Research and monitoring station Adygine • • • • • GENERAL CONCLUSIONS • Retreat of most of glaciers at the heights of 3 500–4 000 mts a. s. l. • Development of new lakes after frontal part of retreated glacier tongue • Short life-time of recently appeared lakes, few years or even months • Negative influence of current climatic changes: - increase of evolution dynamics, - more chaotic development of glacier complexes, - decreasing of ice core mass inside the moraine, - higher water outflow from melting glaciers and discharge variability of glacial rivers. •Higer risk level due to more intensive exploitation of mountain valleys Publications •JANSKÝ, B., ENGEL, Z., ŠOBR, M., YEROKHIN, S., BENEŠ, V., ŠPAČEK, K. (2009): The Evolution of Petrov Lake and Moraine Dam Rupture Risk (Tien-Shan, Kyrgyzstan). Natural Hazards, Springer, 50, No. 1, pp. 83 -96. •JANSKÝ, B., ENGEL, Z., ŠOBR, M. (2010): Outburst flood hazard: Case studies from the Tien - Shan Mountains, Kyrgyzstan. Limnologica, Limnologica-Ecology and Management of Inland Waters, 40(4), 358-364. •ENGEL, Z., ŠOBR, M., EROKHIN, S. A. (2012): Changes of Petrov Glacier and its proglacial lake in Akshiirak massif, central Tien Shan, since 1977. Journal of Glaciology, International Glaciological Society, 58(208), 388-398. •FALATKOVA, K., ŠOBR, M., KOCUM, J., JANSKY, B. (2014): Hydrological regime of Adygine lake, Tien Shan, Kyrgyzstan. Geografie, 119(4), 320–341 •In preparation: •JANSKÝ, B., ŠOBR, M. edit.: The Lakes of Kyrgyzstan. Monography, Elsevier, 2019. •The scientists have • a hard live… Issykata_stredni_kone6 •THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION !