1
Summary, Terror Attacks &
Activities, 1995-2007
MVZ 203 / 448
Spring 2010
Masaryk University
Dave McCuan
Further Definition
* - The term "terrorism" means premeditated, politically
motivated violence perpetrated against noncombatant targets
by sub-national groups or clandestine agents, usually
intended to influence an audience.
* - The term "international terrorism" means terrorism involving
citizens or the territory of more than one country.
* - The term "terrorist group" means any group practicing, or
that has significant subgroups that practice, international
terrorism.
* Title 22 of the United States Code, Section 2656f(d).
* - Let's examine the years just before & just after the
September 11th, 2001 attacks on the level and patterns of
terror-related activities & attacks.
2
A Simple List of Major Terror Orgs.
15 May Organization - Abu Nidal Organization (ANO) - Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG) - Action Direct (AD) - Al-Aqsa
Martyrs' Brigades - Alex Boncayao Brigade (ABB) - Ansar Al-Islam - Armed Islamic Group (GIA) - Armenian Secret
Army for the Liberation of Armenia (ASALA) - Army for the Liberation of Rwanda (ALIR) - Aum Shinrikyo (Aum ) Babbar
Khalsa International - Chukaku-Ha - Continuity Irish Republican Army (CIRA) - Democratic Front for the
Liberation of Palestine-Hawatmeh Faction (DFLP) - Egyptian Islamic Jihad - Ejército Revolucionario del Pueblo
(ERP) - Euzkadi Ta Askatasuna (ETA) - Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (FMLN) - First of October
Antifascist Resistance Group (GRAPO) - Force 17 -Front du Lineration du Quebec (FLQ) - Gama'a al-Islamiyya
(Islamic Group, IG) - Hamas (Islamic Resistance Movement) - Harakat ul-Ansar (HUA) - Harakat ul-Mujahidin (HUM)
- Hezbollah (Party of God) - Irgun - Irish Republican Army (IRA) - Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) - Jaish
Ansar al-Sunna - Jaish-e-Mohammed (JEM) (Army of Mohammed) - Jamaat ul-Fuqra - Japanese Red Army (JRA) Jemaah
Islamiyah (JI) - Kach and Kahane Chai - Khalistan Liberation Force (KLF) - Khmer Rouge - Kosovo
Liberation Army (KLA) - Kurdish Hezbollah - Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) - Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (LT) - Liberation
Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) - Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) - Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF) - Manuel Rodriguez Patriotic
Front (FPMR) - Morzanist Patriotic Front (FPM) - Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) - Mujahedin-e Khalq
Organization (MEK, MKO) - National Liberation Front of Corsica (FLNC) - National Liberation Army (ELN) - New
People's Army (NPA) - The Order - Organisation de l'Armée Secrte (OAS) - Palestinian Islamic Jihad-Shaqaqi
Faction (PIJ) - Palestine Liberation Front-Abu Abbas Faction (PLF) - Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) Palestinian
National Liberation Movement (Fatah) - Palestinian Popular Struggle Front (PPSF) - Popular Front for the
Liberation of Palestine (PFLP) - Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC) Popular
Front for the Liberation of Palestine-Special Command (PFLP-SC) - Popular Front for the Liberation of
Palestine-Special Operations Group (PFLP-SG) - al-Qaeda - Qibla and People Against Gangsterism and Drugs
(PAGAD) - Real IRA (RIRA) - Red Army Faction - Red Brigades - Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC)
- Revolutionary Organization 17 November (17 November) - Revolutionary People's Liberation Party/Front (DHKP/C,
Dev Sol) - Revolutionary People's Struggle (ELA) - Revolutionary United Front (RUF) - Salafist Group for Preaching
and Combat (GSPC) - Shining Path (Sendero Luminoso) - Stern Gang - Symbionese Liberation Army (SLA) - Terra
Lliure - Tupac Amaru Revolutionary Movement (MRTA) - Tupamaros (MLN) - al-Ummah - United Self-Defense
Forces of Colombia (AUC) - The Weathermen (UWO) - Zapatista National Liberation Army (EZLN) Terror
Data: Forms of
"Terrorism"
* Bombings
* Assassinations
* Hostage taking
* Threats and threatening behavior
* Murder
* Attacks on infrastructure
* Coups/Overthrows of Gov'ts
* Eco-terrorism
3
The Modern Benchmark: Terror Acts
* July 2005: London Subway attacks
* March 2004: Madrid Train attack
* October 2002: Bali nightclub attack
* September 2001: World Trade
Center/Pentagon attacks
* May 1998: Attacks on two U.S. Embassies in
Africa
* June 1996: Khobar Towers attack in Saudi
Arabia
Additional Acts
* 1996: Olympic Park Bombing
* 1995: Oklahoma City Federal Building attack
* 1993: First World Trade Center attack
* 1988: Bombing of Pan Am 103 in Scotland
* 1987: Hijack of TWA 847 in Greece
* 1972: Deaths of Israeli athletes at Munich
Olympics
4
Yet, Still More Data Points
* Irish Republican Army attacks in the
United Kingdom
* Separatist movements in Chechnya,
Spain, etc.
* Friction between India and Pakistan
* Friction between Arabs and Israelis
* Purported Al-Qaeda activity in
Southeast Asia
NBC Events Since 1970, Worldwide
1972
Typhoid
March 1995 Sarin
12 Dead, 5500
Affected
November 1995
Radioactive
Cesium
December
1995
Ricin
June
1996
Uranium
1992
Cyanide
March 1995
Ricin
April
1995
Sarin
April-June 1995
Cyanide,
Phosgene,
Pepper Spray
February
1997 Chlorine
14 Injured,
500
Evacuated
June 1994
Sarin
7 Dead,
200 Injured
May 1995
Plague
April
1997
U2351984
Salmonella
200 Injured
1985
Cyanide
1984
Botulinum
2001 Anthrax
5 dead
??? Injured
5
1972 "Order of the Rising Sun"
* Possession of 30-40 kg of Typhoid
Cultures
* Plan was to poison water supplies of
Chicago, St Louis, and other large
Midwestern cities
* Thwarted by FBI
1984 ­ Bhagwan Shree Rajneesh
* The Dalles, Oregon, Fall 1984
* Sprayed Salmonella on salad bars at 10
restaurants
* Attempt to sway local election by
decreasing turnout of voters
* 751 Ill
* 45 Hospitalized
* 0 fatalities
6
1990s Aum Shinrikyo Cult
* Attempted release of Anthrax on at least 8
occasions- no illness
* Sarin Subway Attack 1995- 5,510 affected
­ Dead 8
­ Critical 17
­ Severe 37
­ Moderate 984
­ Outpatient 4,073
­ Unknown 391
1995
* ... Japanese cult Aum Shinrikyo placed containers of the deadly
chemical nerve agent sarin on five trains of the Tokyo subway
system. The attack killed 12 persons, but despite the extreme
toxicity of sarin, 5,500 escaped with injuries, including two US
citizens. The attack was the first major use of chemical weapons
by terrorists.
* In Israel, Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated by a
Jewish Israeli extremist in November, and Palestinian terrorists
continued a series of massive suicide bombings and shootings in
Israel, killing 47.
* There was no known international involvement in the 19 April
bombing of a federal building in Oklahoma City, which killed 168
people and wounded more than 500.
* Ramzi Ahmed Yousef, who is under indictment as a key figure in
the bombing in 1993 of the World Trade Center in New York City,
was arrested and extradited to the United States by Pakistan in
February.
7
1996
* On 25 June a large fuel truck exploded outside the US military's Khobar
Towers housing facility near Dhahran, Saudi Arabia, killing 19 US citizens
and wounding some 500 persons.
* On 17 December terrorists belonging to Peru's Tupac Amaru Revolutionary
Movement (MRTA) took over the Japanese Ambassador's residence in
Lima during a diplomatic reception, taking some 500 persons hostage,
including eight US officials who were released after five days.
* There were several deadly bombings in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem by the
Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS).
* The deadliest attack of the year occurred in Sri Lanka on 31 January, when
terrorists belonging to the separatist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam
(LTTE) rammed an explosives-laden truck into the Central Bank in the
heart of downtown Colombo, killing 90 persons and wounding more than
1,400 others.
* On 9 February a bomb detonated in a parking garage in the Docklands
area of London, killing two persons and wounding more than 100 others,
including two US citizens. The Irish Republican Army claimed responsibility
for the attack.
* On 5 September Ramzi Ahmed Yousef, Abdul Hakim Murad, and Wali
Khan Amin Shah were convicted of a terrorist conspiracy to plant bombs
aboard a number of US passenger airliners operating in East Asia.
1997
* The deadliest terrorist attack ever committed in Egypt occurred on
17 November when six gunmen entered the Hatsheput Temple in
Luxor and for 30 minutes methodically shot and knifed tourists
trapped inside the Temple's alcoves. Fifty-eight foreign tourists
were murdered, along with three Egyptian police officers and one
Egyptian tour guide.
* On 4 September three suicide bombers attacked a pedestrian mall
in central Jerusalem, killing seven persons--including a 14-year-old
US citizen--and injuring nearly 200 persons.
* In a notable counterterrorism achievement, Peruvian security
forces staged on 22 April a raid on the Japanese Ambassador's
residence in Lima where members of the Tupac Amaru
Revolutionary Movement (MRTA) were holding 72 hostages for
four months. All but one of the hostages were freed; after being
shot during the rescue, that one suffered a heart attack and
subsequently died. All the MRTA hostage takers were killed. The
United States strongly supported the Government of Peru's
steadfast refusal to make any concessions to the terrorists holding
the hostages during the four-month ordeal.
8
1998
* ... devastating bombings in August of the US Embassies in Nairobi,
Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. In Nairobi, where the US
Embassy was located in a congested downtown area, 291 persons
were killed in the attack, and about 5,000 were wounded. In Dar es
Salaam, 10 persons were killed and 77 were wounded.
* There were no acts of international terrorism in the United States in
1998. There were successful efforts to bring international terrorist
suspects to justice, however, in several important cases:
* On 4 November indictments were returned before the US District
Court for the Southern District of New York in connection with the
two US Embassy bombings in Africa. Charged in the indictment
were: Usama Bin Ladin, his military commander Muhammad Atef,
and [various] al-Qaida members...
1999
* The number of persons killed or wounded in international terrorist attacks
during 1999 fell sharply because of the absence of any attack causing
mass casualties.
* In Europe individuals mounted dozens of attacks to protest the NATO
bombing campaign in Serbia and the Turkish authorities' capture of Kurdish
Workers' Party (PKK) terrorist leader Abdullah Ocalan.
* In addition, radical youth gangs in Nigeria abducted and held for ransom
more than three dozen foreign oil workers. The gangs held most of the
hostages for a few days before releasing them unharmed.
* In Colombia the number of attacks against U.S. targets, including bombings
of commercial interests and an oil pipeline, rose to 91 in 1999.
* In Greece anti-NATO attacks frequently targeted U.S. interests.
* In Nigeria and Yemen, U.S. citizens were among the foreign nationals
abducted.
* The Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) kidnapped three
U.S. citizens working with the U'Wa Indians in Northeastern Colombia on
25 February. Their bodies were found on 4 March.
* A group of Rwandan Hutu rebels from the Interahamwe in the Bwindi
Impenetrable National Park in Uganda kidnapped and then killed two U.S.
citizens.
9
2000
* The number of anti-US attacks rose from 169 in 1999 to 200 in
2000, a result of the increase in bombing attacks against the oil
pipeline in Colombia, which is viewed by the terrorists as a US
target.
* Nineteen US citizens were killed in acts of international terrorism
in 2000. Seventeen were sailors who died in the attack against
the USS Cole on 12 October in the Yemeni port of Aden.
September 11, 2001
* Five terrorists hijacked American Airlines flight 11, which departed Boston for
Los Angeles at 7:45 a.m. An hour later it was deliberately piloted into the North
Tower of the World Trade Center in New York City.
* Five terrorists hijacked United Airlines flight 175, which departed Boston for Los
Angeles at 7:58 a.m. At 9:05 the plane crashed into the South Tower of the
World Trade Center. Both towers collapsed shortly thereafter, killing
approximately 3000 persons, including hundreds of firefighters and rescue
personnel who were helping to evacuate the buildings.
* Four terrorists hijacked United Airlines flight 93, which departed Newark for San
Francisco at 8:01 a.m. At 10:10 the plane crashed in Stony Creek Township,
Pennsylvania killing all 45 persons on board.
* Five terrorists hijacked American Airlines flight 77, which departed Washington
Dulles Airport for Los Angeles at 8:10 a.m. At 9:39 the plane was flown directly
into the Pentagon in Arlington, Virginia, near Washington, D.C. A total of 189
persons were killed, including all who were onboard the plane.
* More than 3000 persons were killed in these four attacks. Citizens of 78
countries perished at the World Trade Center site.
* Operation Enduring Freedom, the military component of the Coalition, began on
7 October. The first targets were the al-Qaida training camps and military
installations of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan. Islamic extremists from
around the world--including North America, Europe, Africa, the Middle East,
and Central, South, and Southeast Asia--had used Afghanistan as a training
ground and base of operations for worldwide terrorist activities.
* Within months, the Taliban was driven from power, and nearly 1000 al-Qaida
operatives were arrested...
10
2001
* In addition to the US citizens killed and injured on September 11, eight other US
citizens were killed and 15 were wounded in acts of terrorism last year.
* Ronald Sander, one of the five American oil workers kidnapped in Ecuador in
October 2000, was killed by his captors--an armed gang led by former
members of a Colombian terrorist group.
* Guillermo Sobero, one of three US citizens in a group of 20 persons kidnapped
on 27 May from a resort on Palawan Island in the southern Philippines by the
Abu Sayyaf Group, was subsequently murdered by his captors.
* On 29 May in the West Bank, militants fired on a passing vehicle, killing two
persons, including US citizen Sara Blaustein. Two other US citizens were injured
in the ambush. The Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade claimed responsibility.
* On 9 August in Jerusalem, a suicide bomber walked into a busy downtown
restaurant and detonated a 10-pound bomb that he was wearing, killing 15
persons and wounding 130 others. Among the fatalities were US citizens Judith
Greenbaum and Malka Roth. Four other US citizens were injured in the
explosion. HAMAS claimed responsibility for the attack.
* On 6 October in al-Khobar, Saudi Arabia, a terrorist threw a parcel bomb into a
busy shopping area, killing Michael Jerrald Martin, Jr., and wounding five other
persons, among them two US citizens.
* On 4 November, Shoshana Ben Yashai was killed in a shooting attack in east
Jerusalem near French Hill. The assailant was also killed in the attack, which
was claimed by Palestine Islamic Jihad.
2002
* Philippine military units on a rescue mission engaged terrorists from the ASG in a firefight that
took the life of US citizen Martin Burnham, who had been held hostage along with his wife, for
more than a year. She was wounded and freed.
* In Jerusalem, a bomb hidden in a bag that was placed on a table in the Frank Sinatra
International Student Center, Hebrew University, detonated, killing nine persons including five
US citizens and four Israeli citizens and wounding approximately 87 others including four US
citizens, two Japanese citizens, and three South Korean citizens, according to media reports.
The Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS) claimed responsibility.
* In Moscow, 50 armed Chechen rebels took control of the Palace of Culture Theater to demand
an end to the war in Chechnya. The theater was rigged with landmines and explosive devices to
control hostages and promote leverage with Russian authorities. The rebels held more than 800
hostages including foreign nationals from the United Kingdom, France, Belarus, Germany,
Azerbaijan, Georgia, Bulgaria, Netherlands, Ukraine, Israel, Austria, United States, and two
permanent residents of the United States. During the three-day siege, rebels killed one Russian
police officer and five Russian hostages.
* On 26 October, the third day of the siege, Russian Special Forces administered the anesthetic
gas fentanyl through the ventilation system. Commandos stormed the theater and killed all of
the Chechen rebels after a brief gun battle. In the rescue attempt, 124 hostages died including
citizens from Russia (115), United States (1), Azerbaijan (1), Netherlands (1), Ukraine (2),
Armenia (1), Austria (1), Kazakhstan (1), and Belarus (1). Chechen rebels led by Movsar
Barayev claimed responsibility.
* In Mombasa, a vehicle containing three suicide bombers drove into the front of the Paradise
Hotel and exploded, killing 15 persons including three Israelis and 12 Kenyans and wounding 40
others including 18 Israelis and 22 Kenyans. Al-Qaida, the Government of Universal Palestine in
Exile, and the Army of Palestine claimed responsibility. Al-Ittihad al-Islami (AIAI) is probably
linked to the attack.
11
2003
ˇThirty-five U.S. citizens died in international terrorist attacks in 2003:
ˇMichael Rene Pouliot was killed on 21 January in Kuwait when a gunman fired at
his vehicle that had halted at a stoplight. ˇ
ˇThe deadliest anti-U.S. attack occurred in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on 12 May
when suicide bombers in booby-trapped cars filled with explosives drove into the
Vinnell, Jadewel and Al-Hamra housing compounds, killing nine U.S. citizens.
ˇFred Bryant, a civilian contractor, was killed on 5 August in Tikrit, Iraq, when his
car ran over an improvised explosive device.
* Three U.S. citizens were among the victims of a deadly truck bombing of the UN
headquarters in Baghdad's Canal Hotel on 19 August. They were Arthur Helton,
Richard Hooper, and Martha Teas. UN Special Representative Sergio Vieira de
Mello was also among the 23 fatalities.
* Dr. David Applebaum and his daughter, Naava Applebaum, were killed on 9
September in a bombing at the Cafe Hillel in Jerusalem.
* Two U.S. citizens, William Carlson and Christopher Glenn Mueller, were killed in
an ambush by armed militants in Shkin, Afghanistan, on 27 October. Both were
U.S. Government contract workers.
0
50
100
150
200
250
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Anti US attacks
Killed
Incidents of Terrorism Worldwide, NCTC, DoS
12
Incidents of Terrorism Worldwide, NCTC, DoS, 2005-2007
44,31038,45524,853People worldwide injured as a result of terror attacks
22,68520,87214,616People worldwide killed as a result of terror attacks
72,06675,21174,309People killed, injured or kidnapped as a result of terror attacks
1,1581,3491,154Attacks resulting in the kidnapping of at least one person
6,2595,7983,839Attacks resulting in the injury of at least one person
355295227Attacks resulting in the death of at least 10 people
3,9934,1422,882Attacks resulting in the death of only one person
7,2417,1366,019Attacks resulting in the death of zero people
7,2587,4345,137Attacks resulting in at least one death
11,12511,3228,032Attacks resulting in at least one death, injury, or kidnapping
14,49914,57011,156Terror attacks worldwide
200720062005
13
Politicization of Definition of Terrorism and Intelligence, Part I
* US Department of State Patterns of Global Terrorism 2003
Report.
­ No universal definition (@ end of above document)
­ International/Transnational Terrorism
­ Definitions with consequences
­ Revised State Department report released
­ Originally released April 2004
­ Revisions released 06/24/2004
­ Originally reported 190 terror attacks, 307 deaths
* Lowest since 1969
­ Revised to 208 attacks, 625 deaths
­ Significant attacks large casualties and property damage
increased for 138 2002 to 175 2003, 21 year high
­ Democrats suggest manipulation of numbers, esp. Rep.
Waxman (D-California)
­ First time information complied by the Terrorist Threat
Integration Center (TTIC)
­ TTIC Director Brennan blames on "database" error
Politicization of Definition of Terrorism and Intelligence, Part II
* Patterns of Global Terrorism 2004
­ State Department transfers responsibility
* Now publishes "Country Reports"
­ Estimates & data analysis now responsibility of National
Counterterrorism Center (NCTC)
­ NCTC established 08/27/2004
14
2003 Terror Data - Events (State)
Transnational Terrorism: Annual Terrorist Events, 1968-2003
Source: Erickson 2004, Sandler and Enders 2002, US State Dept. 2004.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Events
5 per. Mov. Avg. (Events)
2004 Terror Data - Events (NCTC estimated 04/2005)
Transnational Terrorism: Annual Terrorist Events, 1968-2004
Source: Erickson 2004, Sandler and Enders 2002, US State Dept. 2004, CNN 2005, Washington Post 2005.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Events
5 per. Mov. Avg. (Events)
15
2003 Terror Data (Dept. of State, DOS)
Transnational Terrorism: Deaths, 1968-2003
Sources: Erickson 2004, Sandler and Enders 2002, US State Dept. 2004.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Events
5 per. Mov. Avg. (Events)
2004 Terror Data - Deaths (NCTC estimated 04/2005)
Transnational Terrorism: Deaths, 1968-2004 (NCTC Estimate 2004)
Sources: Erickson 2004, Sandler and Enders 2002, US State Dept. 2004, CNN 2005, Washington Post 2005.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Deaths
5 per. Mov. Avg. (Deaths)
16
2004 Terror Data Rate of Change (NCTC estimated 04/2005)
Transnational Terrorism: Annual Terrorist Events - Rate of Change from Previous Year, 1969-2004
Sources: Erickson 2004, Sandler and Enders 2002, US State Dept. 2004,CNN 2005, Washington Post2005.
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
EventsRate
* Recent author, Gunaratna:
­ Professor at the Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies,
Singapore.
­ Preface to his book, The New Face of Terror in early 2003.
* Al Qaeda a "very serious threat."
* US Coalition had "failed", not captured Osama bin Laden,
Mullah Omar (Taliban).
* Khalid Sheikh Muhammad ­ 9/11 Mastermind (captured
March 2003).
* AQ develops from anti-Soviet mujahideen support
networks created by US, Pakistani, UK and Saudi
intelligence/military in late 1970s.
* Post-Soviet withdrawal turns focus on US/Israel/heretical
collaborating Islamic regimes.
* Post 9/11 attacks AQ has decentralized, need to develop a
global strategy to manage not eliminate threat.
­ Overview of AQ from Averting Armageddon Episode 3 The
New Face of Terror (2003).
17
* Hewitt Before September 11: American Terrorism Since 1950s
­ Background, networks, experience, contact with security
apparatus, corporations, think tanks, other institutions.
­ Professor of Sociology. Univ. Maryland Baltimore County.
* Terrorism long running problem in the United States.
­ 3000 incidents - 700 fatalities (up to 2000).
* Distinctive Feature of US terrorism.
­ Ideological Diversity.
­ Vast number of organizations and individuals.
­ Difficult to perceive totality.
* Definitions and Sources.
­ Hewitt uses synthesis of McKnight Trick and FBI definition.
­ Distinction between terrorism/quasi-terrorism.
­ Another difficulty posed is distinguishing between terrorism
and criminal acts w/political motivations.
­ Data gets lost between FBI and local law enforcement
reporting.
Hewitt's Model, cont'd
* Political Environments Conducive to Formation of Terrorist
Organizations.
* Hewitt's Conclusions
­ 1) sustained outbreaks of terrorism w/n the United States
have been associated with:
* The existence of a substantial body of
sympathizers/supporters,
* Who felt that the existing political system was not
responsive to their concerns.
­ 2) Not number of sympathizers - the number of mobilized
sympathizers.
­ 3) Terrorist organizations appear at decline of Social
Movements rather than... ascendance.
* Is Hewitt's model generalizable?
­ Can development of Al Qaeda be explained using model?
18
Terrorism Waves, Adopted from Hewitt (2002)
Hewitt, cont'd
* Political Violence and Terrorism in United States.
­ Civil War era.
* First Klan and Federal (Union) Occupation of South.
­ Labor Mobilization and Anarchist Organizations.
* Haymarket Riot 1886 Chicago.
* Echoes with Days of Rage 1969 (Weather Underground).
* Jensen Article.
­ Frontier Violence.
* Vigilante.
* Settler Indian/Native American.
­ World War I Era:
* Anti-War/Pro War Violence.
* American Protective League.
* Bureau of Investigation (predecessor to FBI) engaged in
anti-radical sweeps.
* IWW violence and counter-violence.
* Second Klan.
19
Other Authors on Terror in the U.S.
* Political Violence and Terrorism in United States.
* Rasler, Karen. 1986. APSR
* "War, Accommodation, and Violence in the United States, 1890-
1970."
* Nexus of External Crisis and Internal Conflict.
­ Severity of Conflict.
­ Duration of Conflict.
­ Accommodating on Non-Accommodating at federal level.
­ Findings:
* Parallel with Hewitt non-accommodating more likely to give
rise to conflict. Hewitt term "unsympathetic."
* Accommodating negative or weak association.
* Government reaction to mobilization key to understanding
escalatory processes.
* Violence: Economic, Social, Political, Total.
20
United States - Annual Violent Events
Civil Disorders and Terrorism 1830-1998
Source: Erickson Dissertation 2004
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1830
1834
1838
1842
1846
1850
1854
1858
1862
1866
1870
1874
1878
1882
1886
1890
1894
1898
1902
1906
1910
1914
1918
1922
1926
1930
1934
1938
1942
1946
1950
1954
1958
1962
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
Data Source 1
Data Source 2
Data Source 3
Index
21
United States - Annual Violent Events
Disorders and Terrorism 1900-1998
Source: Erickson Dissertation 2004.
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1900
1903
1906
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
Data Source 1
Data Source 2
Data Source 3
Index
5 per. Mov. Avg. (Index)
United States - Annual Violent Events
Disorders and Terrorism 1900-1998 - rate of change
Source:Erickson Dissertation 2004.
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
1891
1894
1897
1900
1903
1906
1909
1912
1915
1918
1921
1924
1927
1930
1933
1936
1939
1942
1945
1948
1951
1954
1957
1960
1963
1966
1969
1972
1975
1978
1981
1984
1987
1990
1993
1996
1999
violence-rate
5 per. Mov. Avg. (violence-rate)
22
Table 1.1 cont'd
23
Definitions & Insurgencies?
Insurgency Defined
* Organized rebellion.
* Deliberate actions designed to cause the
downfall of governmental or ruling authority.
* Can range from conventional military action
to guerrilla tactics.
* Insurgents usually comprised of irregular
military forces.
* Term made first appearance during Vietnam
Conflict and is now widely used in Iraq.
Tactics of Insurgents
* "Asymmetric Warfare"
­ Tactics that accept the insurgency's capabilities
are unequal to the authority's capabilities.
* Bombings, kidnappings, raids, ambushes.
* Attacks against both military and civilians.
* Leadership of insurgency may or may not be
visible or forthright.
24
Definitions of Terrorism for NGOs, IGOs, and Nation-States
* United Nations: Working on changing to a new definition.
* Proposed Definitions of Terrorism
­ 1. League of Nations Convention (1937):
* "All criminal acts directed against a State and intended or
calculated to create a state of terror in the minds of particular
persons or a group of persons or the general public".
­ 2. UN Resolution language (1999):
* "1. Strongly condemns all acts, methods and practices of
terrorism as criminal and unjustifiable, wherever and by
whomsoever committed;
* 2. Reiterates that criminal acts intended or calculated to provoke
a state of terror in the general public, a group of persons or
particular persons for political purposes are in any circumstance
unjustifiable, whatever the considerations of a political,
philosophical, ideological, racial, ethnic, religious or other nature
that may be invoked to justify them". (GA Res. 51/210 Measures
to eliminate international terrorism)
Definitions, cont'd
* United Nations continued.
* 3. Short legal definition proposed by A. P. Schmid to United
Nations Crime Branch (1992):
­ Act of Terrorism = Peacetime Equivalent of War Crime
* 4. Academic Consensus Definition:
­ " ... anxiety-inspiring method of repeated violent action,
employed by (semi-) clandestine individual, group or state
actors, for idiosyncratic, criminal or political reasons, whereby in
contrast to assassination - the direct targets of violence are
not the main targets.
­ Victims of violence chosen randomly (targets of opportunity) or
selectively (representative or symbolic targets)... serve as
message generators.
­ Communication processes between terrorist, victims, and main
targets... manipulate the main target (audience(s)), turning it
into a target of terror, a target of demands, or a target of
attention, depending on whether intimidation, coercion, or
propaganda is primarily sought" (Schmid, 1988).
25
Definitions, cont'd
* Definitions of Terrorism, Council of Europe:
* Extradition allowed for following acts which can not be considered
protected "political acts" violations of/or involving:
* Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Seizure of Aircraft,
signed at The Hague on 16 December 1970;
* Convention for the Suppression of Unlawful Acts against the
Safety of Civil Aviation, signed at Montreal on 23 September
1971;
* Attack against the life, physical integrity or liberty of internationally
protected persons, including diplomatic agents;
* Kidnapping, the taking of a hostage or serious unlawful detention;
* The use of a bomb, grenade, rocket, automatic firearm or letter or
parcel bomb if this use endangers persons;
* An attempt to commit any of the foregoing offences or
participation as an accomplice of a person who commits or
attempts to commit such an offense.
Definitions, cont'd
* Definitions of Terrorism, UK Home Office. Terrorism Act 2000:
* "Terrorism" means the use or threat of action ...
­ To influence the government or to intimidate the public
or a section of the public, and
­ For the purpose of advancing a political, religious or
ideological cause.
* Action consider terrorist if it involves...
­ Serious violence against a person,
­ Serious damage to property,
­ Endangers a person's life, other than that of the person
committing the action,
­ Creates a serious risk to the health or safety of the
public or a section of the public, or
­ Designed seriously to interfere with or seriously to
disrupt an electronic system.
26
Definitions, cont'd
* Definitions of Terrorism, United States Code Title 18, Part 1,
Chapter 113b.
* '`International terrorism''...
* Involve violent or dangerous acts to human life, violation of the
criminal laws of the United States or of any State, or that would
be criminal violation if committed within the jurisdiction of the
United States or of any State
* Appears intended - to intimidate or coerce a civilian population; to
influence the policy of a government by intimidation or coercion;
or to affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction,
assassination, or kidnapping; and
* Occurs primarily outside the territorial jurisdiction of the United
States, or transcend national boundaries in terms of the means by
which they are accomplished, the persons they appear intended
to intimidate or coerce, or the locale in which their perpetrators
operate or seek asylum.
Definitions, cont'd
* Definitions of Terrorism, US Code (continued):
­ '`Domestic terrorism'' means
* involve acts dangerous to human life that are a violation of the
criminal laws of the United States or of any State.
­ Appears intended...
* To intimidate or coerce a civilian population;
* To influence the policy of a government by intimidation or
coercion; or
* To affect the conduct of a government by mass destruction,
assassination, or kidnapping; and
* Occurs primarily within the territorial jurisdiction of the United
States
27
Definitions, cont'd
* Definitions, Title 22 of the United States Code, Section 2656f(d):
* Premeditated, politically motivated violence perpetrated
against noncombatant targets by sub-national groups or
clandestine agents, usually intended to influence an
audience.
* International terrorism "involving citizens or the territory of
more than one country."
* Terrorist group "any group practicing, or that has significant
subgroups that practice, international terrorism."
­ Used for statistical and analytical purposes since 1983.
­ Domestic terrorism not included in this report.
­ Noncombatant is interpreted to include, in addition to
civilians, military personnel who at the time of the incident are
unarmed and/or not on duty.
­ Acts of terrorism attacks on military installations or on armed
military personnel when a state of military hostilities does not
exist at the site.
Definitions, cont'd
* Definitions, US DOJ FBI from Terrorism 2000/2001 p. iii-iv:
* "Unlawful use of force and violence against persons or
property to intimidate or coerce a government, the civilian
population, or any segment thereof, in furtherance of
political or social objectives."
* Domestic Terrorism.
* International Terrorism.
* Terrorist Related Activities.
­ Terrorist Incident.
­ Suspected Terrorist Incident.
­ Terrorism Prevention.
* Terrorism vs. Vandalism.
­ Discusses difficulties of defining ELF and AFL
vandalism of labs as acts of terrorism.
­ Conservative interpretation of US Code - in 1999.
­ 2004 discussed as "terrorist."
­ Congressional testimony re: "Ecoterrorism."
28
Revising Insurgency Tactics &
Relations to Terror Tactics
* Recall "Asymmetric Warfare" (AW)
­ Tactics that accept the insurgency's capabilities
are unequal to the authority's capabilities.
* Bombings, kidnappings, raids, ambushes.
* Attacks against both military and civilians.
* Leadership of insurgency may or may not be
visible or forthright.
Terrorism & Counter-Insurgency
(CI) & Back Again?
* Strategy involves both conventional and
non-conventional military tactics.
* Non-conventional tactics include:
­ Propaganda
­ Psychological Operations
­ Paramilitary Action
­ Economic Action
­ Information Warfare
29
"HEARTS AND MINDS"
* Chairman Mao divides guerrilla warfare
into three phases:
­ Attacks on machinery of government and
distribution of propaganda to gain popular
support.
­ Escalating attacks on military and other
vital targets.
­ Conventional attacks to seize infrastructure
and the government.
"HEARTS AND MINDS"
* Insurgents and guerrillas will rely on a friendly
population for supplies and intelligence.
* Insurgents and guerrillas will tend to melt into
the population or environment as a military
tactic.
* Local populace primarily punished or killed for
collaboration with ruling authority.
* Insurgents sometimes labeled as "Terrorists"
as part of a "Hearts and Minds" campaign.
30
Tactics of Terrorists; Tactics of CI
* "Oil Spot" Strategy
­ Spread the secure areas incrementally.
­ Terrorists: Spread the unsecure, threatened areas
* "Draining the Water" Strategy
­ Forced relocation of the local populace to expose
insurgents.
* Must win over the "Hearts and Minds" of the
local population.
­ Rule #1 for fighting guerrillas: Do Not Give Them a
Safe Haven from Which to Operate.
Implications of Similarities
* Widely used tactic for fighting
"Asymmetric Warfare."
* Use of "unconventional" tactics by both
sides ­ most involve winning the
"Hearts and Minds" of the people.
* Blurs the line between combatants and
non-combatants.
* Other implications?
31
Implications, cont'd
* Widely used tactic for fighting
"Asymmetric Warfare."
* Use of "unconventional" tactics by both
sides ­ most involve winning the
"Hearts and Minds" of the people.
* Blurs the line between combatants and
non-combatants.
* Other implications?
* All reports quoted directly from "Patterns of
Global Terrorism." US State Department
(www.state.gov)
* You can also navigate to www.mipt.org, or to
www.state.gov/s/ct/
* Also see: www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/crt/index.htm