TOC – Critical chain I J.Skorkovský ESF-MU, KPH TOC concisely I (see PWP presentation about TOC) •origin: E.M.Goldratt, Jerusalem •cost world<->throughput world •analogy weight of the chain – solidity of the chain •how to find a bottleneck? •tools of TOC – tree structures •CRT – EC – TT – PT – FRT meaning: •Current Reality Tree - Evaporating Cloud Tree– Transition Tree - • - Prerequisite Tree – Future Reality Tree TOC concisely I (see PWP presentation about TOC) •bottleneck in project management is critical path •finding (assessment) of bottleneck is not easy and often it is not explicit (uncompromising) •everybody knows something about TOC and nobody knows how to implement it to the real world- and this is again another bottleneck (tendon of Achilles from the heel to the scruff) • TOC-five steps (revision) •Five steps process: • Step 0. Identify the Goal of the System/Organization Step 0.5 Establish a way to measure progress to Goal • •Step 1. Identify the system’s constraint. •Step 2. Exploit the system’s constraint. •Step 3. Subordinate everything else to the above decision. •Step 4. Elevate the system’s constraint. •Step 5. If a constraint is broken (that is, relieved or improved), go back to Step 1. But don’t allow inertia to become a constraint. • Linear image of the project •activities – abscissas – Gantt graph •constantly changing conditions (Parkinson low, Murphy low, Student syndrome, customer changes - „fancies “,“caprices“.. …. ), • • Solvina z Austrálie Trouble Trouble Ajtík z Autsralie 20020416 Parallel image of the project Project and its budget •price of the whole project •project length (time) •project stages and length of each activity •assigned resources to every activity and their capacities (time per defined period) •time reserves (buffers) and their estimation •unfavourable influences (see Murphy´s lows - http://murphy.euweb.cz, etc.) • • • • Selected Murphy´s laws •If your attack is going well, you have walked into an ambush (trap) •Planner is alerted about modification of the plan exactly in the moment, when the plan is finally adjusted •To carry out n+1 trivialities you need two times more time than time necessary to carry out n trivialities (law 99 %) •If anything can go wrong, it will •Any given program, when running, is obsolete •No matter how many resources you have, it is never enough •Brains x Beauty x Availability = Constant. This constant is always zero. Project Pyramid – principle (not necessary pro MPH_AOMA) Project Budget Cost Volume Stage 1 ->Workshop->approval->Correction (2nd stage set out) Quality Management Stage 2 ->Workshop->approval->Correction (3rd stage set out) Quality Management And Credit Notes (Return Management) Financial Management 1st part e.g. Initial work on Finite Capacity Planning integration Basically all the scope of the project framed by e.g. your clauses 2-7 Stage 3 ->Workshop->approval->Correction (4th stage set out) 180 hours for Allocations 1st stage All budgeted hours for allocations All budgeted hours for quality.. Total volume of hours suggested for the 1st stage corresponds to the volume of the smaller triangle, which represents 430 hours Example of the real budget- data is modified (not necessary pro MPH_AOMA) Capacity assignment (not necessary pro MPH_AOMA- only example of capacity plan¨ Resources and orders Matrix structure of multi-project environment – responsibility of project managers and responsibility of department managers are in conflict time capacity Order 1 Order 2 Project manager 1 Project manager 2 Chief 1 Chief 2 overload 0789209039 Probability– median an element of statistical file, which is after sorting in the middle .Median of the set (1,5,2,2,1) is 2 5 min 15min 45min 100 „5-miniutes meeting happened. How many times it took 5 minutes only ? Variability of the real time assigned to activity Colleague ask for a quick rendez-vous: „Do not worry, it will take maximum 5 minutes!“. How long it takes on average? Partial time of any activity in the project Probability of finishing tasks A to E in time is 50%. (50*50*….*50=3,125 %) What is a probability, that task F will start in time ? A B C D E F 50% 3% 50% 50% 50% 50% How the timely finishing of the tasks A,B,C and D will influence the integration point ? a)saving are fully wasted b)delay in one task will be immediately transferred to the next project task (activity) see +10 -2 -5 -1 -7 +10 +10 Project environment is very complicated because of integration linkages and their dependencies Project environment is very complicated because of integration linkages and their dependencies G G G B B B In order to start B in the upper branch, you have to finish G and also B in the lower branch. The probability, that B start in time is 50 % worse, than it was shown on the previous slide. The project must be protected against influences of breakdowns (troubles) activity 1 activity 2 activity 3 B B B B = buffer Standard estimation with protecting buffers for every activity activity 1 activity 2 activity 3 buffer 1st step : every activity is shorten to 50 % of its original time size. 2nd step : critical path buffer at the end of the project will have size of 50 % of the total sum of saved time created by shortening all partial activities istockphoto_245312-steam-train-buffer-close-up Critical path, adjoining branches of the project and adjoining buffers (AB) Project buffer Critical path activity X activity Y AB Adjoining project branch Buffer serves as a safety tool to accumulate reasons of expected and unexpected delays activity 1 activity 2 activity 3 Critical Path (CP) • Critical path is defined as the longest way (meaning time) from the starting point of the project graph to the ending point. • Every project has at least one critical path The rules of CP: • Every delayed task on CP will essentially delay the whole project • • Truncation of duration of any task on CP will shorten whole project CP definition (more in detail) Critical path is defined as the longest way (meaning time) from the starting point of the project graph to the ending point Critical path represents technological dependencies and given times of every task on Critical path inclusive of necessary condition for fulfilment of foregoing tasks (activities) framed by integration points. Critical chain definition • In TOC the Critical chain is defined as the longest way (meaning time) from the starting point of the project graph (Gantt) to the ending point which takes into account technological dependencies as well as time of the tasks and moreover, capacities of assigned resources. • With infinite capacities of resources you can consider Critical path=Critical chain Multi-project management and critical resources (CCR) used in more that one project branch X X X X AB AB AB AB Project buffer X Disadvantageous variant Critical chain Critical path CCR = Capacity Constrained Resource = X Multi-project management and critical resources (CCR) used in more that one project branch X X X X AB AB AB AB X After transformation of activities Project buffer Critical chain Project management based on remainimg time in buffers – Buffer Management •Buffers are used for timely warning and that is to say predicting and avoiding future problems related to project deadlines (milestones) • •It is also used as a guideline for corrective actions Basic metrics showing the project status •The partial size of Critical chain (CC) fulfilled in days (in %) •How much of buffer size was used to fulfil above mentioned partial size of CC ? •Trend of project (buffer consumption graph- see next slide) •Consumption of the financial buffer •Priorities – bigger buffer penetration- bigger priority •Adjoining branches have always lower priorities •It is not allowed to create bad multitasking • Trends of the project % use of the buffer % consumption of the critical chain Dangerous zone Warning zone Safety zone peril print_guardian_angel_watching_over_children_bridge_litho pompier_009 Planning - principles •We are working with plan , which takes into account different times of tasks : •- start of the tasks are changed based on termination of preceding tasks - you have to react in project in such a way , that handover is done as a baton pass during races A1 B1 C1 D1 B Buffer Plan with sharp deadlines with buffers 50% (2+3+3=8 8+4=12) 2 4 6 8 10 Planned start 12 Critical chain completion 8 days 0 100% 100% Zdroj MPM systems Buffer Planning - principles •A1 did not started yet , because this A1 resource is still working on another order (task), which may be part of another project •B1 already started an for completion will need another two days A1 C1 D1 r 2 4 6 8 10 Planned start 12 B1 0 100% 100% Zdroj MPM systems Plan with sharp deadlines with buffers 50% (2+3+3=8 8+4=12) Critical chain completion 8 days 1 Plan 2nd day after start •A1 started and will be finished (completed) tomorrow. •B1 will be finished (completed) tomorrow A1 C1 D1 r B1 0 100% 100% 2 4 6 8 10 Planned start Plan with sharp deadlines with buffers 50% (2+3+3=8 8+4=12) Critical chain completion 8 days Buffer 12 Zdroj MPM systems Plan 3rd day after start •A1 despite all efforts resource A1 needs another day to complete. •B1 has completed his work with 2 days delay A1 C1 D1 r B1 0 100% 100% Plan with sharp deadlines with buffers 50% (2+3+3=8 8+4=12) Planned start 2 4 6 8 10 Critical chain completion 8 days 12 3 Buffer Zdroj MPM systems Plan 6 day after start •A1 completed his task with 2 days delay •B1 completed his task with 2 days delay •C1 completed his task 1 day earlier than expected (planned) •D1 will start to work tomorrow A1 C1 D1 r B1 0 100% 100% Plan with sharp deadlines with buffers 50% (2+3+3=8 8+4=12) Planned start Critical chain completion 8 days Zdroj MPM systems 2 4 6 8 10 12 Buffer Plan 8 day after start •A1 completed his task with 2 days delay •B1 completed his task with 2 days delay •C1 completed his task 1 day earlier than expected (planned) •D1 needs one day more to complete A1 C1 D1 r B1 0 100% 100% Plan with sharp deadlines with buffers 50% (2+3+3=8 8+4=12) Planned start Critical chain completion 8 days 2 4 6 8 10 12 Buffer Zdroj MPM systems rezerva Plan 11 day after start •A1 completed his task with 2 days delay •B1 completed his task with 2 days delay •C1 completed his task 1 day earlier than expected (planned) •D1 completed his task with 2 days delay A1 C1 D1 r 0 B1 Plan with sharp deadlines with buffers 50% (2+3+3=8 8+4=12) Planned start 100% 100% Critical chain completion 8 days 2 4 6 8 10 12 11 Zdroj MPM systems Critical Path (CP) •Critical Path Method, abbreviated CPM, or Critical Path Analysis, is a mathematically based algorithm for scheduling a set of project activities. It is an important tool for effective project management. Critical Path (CP) Milestones Activity Critical Path (CP) Building a diagram 1 Critical Path (CP) Building a diagram 2 Critical Path (CP) Building a diagram 3 Critical Path (CP) Building a diagram 4 – calculating the FORWARD PASS Early Starts and Early finishes dates are calculated by means of Forward Pass ES EF 13-7=6 16=7+6+3 Critical Path (CP) Building a diagram 5 – calculating the BACKWARD PASS Late Starts and Late Finishes dates are calculated by means of Backward Pass LS LF 18-2=16 16-3=13 13-3=10 13-2=11 10-3=7 16-3=13 13-3=10 Difference Forward-Backward : you can start 7 minutes later and the time of the project (duration) is the same Planüberhang, Slip, Scivolo, Regresso, загрузочный Critical Path (CP) Building a diagram 6 – calculating the FLOAT(SLACK)/CP Free Float: Amount of time a single task can be delayed without delaying the early start of any successor task =LS-ES or LF-EF Critical Path (CP) •Project Planning and control. •Time-cost trade-offs. •Cost-benefit analysis. • Reducing risk. CPM is helpful in : Critical Path (CP) Limitation of CPM : •Does not consider resource capacities. •Less efficient use of buffer time. •Less focus on non critical tasks that can cause risk. •Based on only deterministic task duration. •Critical Path can change during execution. Multi-project Management w1 w2 w3 w4 w5 w6 w7 w8 w9 w10 w11 w12 w13 w14 DAP Project 1 12 Project 2 12 Project 3 12 36 K1 K2 K3 w1 w2 w3 w4 w5 w6 w7 w8 w9 w10 w11 w12 DAP Project 1 6 Project 2 6 Project 3 6 18 Bad multitasking causes, that one project will be significantly longer and no other project will be shorter Multitasking characterization •people always overestimate the length of their tasks •salesman offers impracticable terms (dates) •The fight for reserves (capacities) causes, that all saved time is fully wasted (Student´s syndrome) •Reserves (if any) are used badly •Bad use of reserves causes lack of transparent assignment •Non transparent priorities are parents of bad multitasking •Bad multitasking causes longer duration of all activities (tasks) and thus all the projects • Project Quick, resources A-E and activities X,Z,X,W, and V Resource and activity Activity=Task A-Y Median of the required time 10 days You can say, that 50 % of any activities finish earlier, and other 50 % will be delayed, meaning, that 10 days represents 50 % of the estimated time for chosen activity Project managers decided, that activity ends if 90 % of estimated time will be consumed. It means, that they add a time buffer of 8 days (for the safety reasons). 10 d= 50%, 20d=100%, 2d=10%, 20d-2d=18d, 18d-10d=8d A-Y B-Z C-X D-W E-V 5 x 10 days=50 days Time distribution Time 10 days 18 days Five activities (tasks) and applied modifications •If we consider for every activity time buffer 8 days we will get : A-Y B-Z C-X D-W E-V 5 x 10 days= 50 days A-Y 8 B-Z 8 C-X 8 D-W 8 E-V 8 5 x 18 days= 90 days Vložte obrázek některého z významných geografických úkazů země. Five activities and modifications (added buffers) and four types of troubles A-Y 8 B-Z 8 C-X 8 D-W 8 E-V 8 A-Y B-Z C-X D-W E-V Delayed „reporting“ We wait for resource D (even if C finished earlier) Parkinson Real delay No one trouble causes project delay taking into consideration planned delivery date (agreed date of the project). Dissipation of acquired time reserves was caused by company strategy saying strictly stick to the planned project schedule (example of rigid management) Five projects after modification (buffers united to one and placed to the end of the project) A-Y B-Z C-X D-W E-V 8 8 8 8 8 A-Y B-Z C-X D-W Parkinson Little bit longer than 20 days median but shorter than 18 days Earlier end of activity A 8 8 8 8 8 = CPB=current project buffer = 40 days 8 8 4 = new buffer = 50 % out of CPB, which makes CPB/2 E-V Critical path- Critical chain START Activity V 14 days, resource A Activity W 6 days, resource B Activity X 6 days, resource C Activity Y 10 days, resource A Activity Z 4 days, resource D END Critical path Critical Chain Gantt graph for X,Z,V,W a Z 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 3 1 4 1 5 1 6 1 7 1 8 1 9 2 0 2 1 2 2 2 3 2 4 2 5 2 6 2 7 2 8 Critical chain Critical path Project is considered as successful if is finished in expected time and financial budget is not exceeded Critical chain with buffers START Activity V 7 days=14/2, RES A Activity W 3=6/2 days, RES B Activity X 3=6/2 days, RES C Activity Y 5=10/2 days, RES A Activity Z 2=4/2 days, RES D END > Adjoining buffer 1,5 days > Project buffer 7 days 7=(7+5+2)/2 Length of the Critical Chain: 7+5+2+7=21 and originally it was all in all 24 days > Adjoining buffer 1,5 days Multitasking – sequential order of resources 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Time 1A PB1 AB1 AB-Adjoining Buffer 2 B PB2 AB 2A AB2 2 A PB3 AB3 3 A Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 Framed by those three projects we could see collision in utilization of some resources. GREEN RESOURCE at the end of projects P1 and P2 and the same by YELLOW RESOURCE at the beginning of P1 and P2. In the adjoining branches we could see collision due to the bad resources allocation in P1 and P3 and in all three projects we have collision of BROWN and RED RESOURCES. This is caused by matrix organisation scheme of the company PB-Project Buffer Matrix scheme 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 TIME 1A PB 1 AB 1 2 B PB2 AB 2A AB 2 2 A PB 3 AB 3 3 A Project manager 1 Project manager 2 Project manager 3 Manager commanding RED RESOURCE Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 AB-Adjoining Buffer PB-Project Buffer Collisions among project and department managers (DMi) (those who control resources) DM1 DM2 DM3 DM4 DM5 Project Manager 1 Resources PM always persuade Department managers to assign their resources to their project and department managers want have all projects finished as soon as possible with maximum parallel processing possible Project Manager 2 Project Manager 3 Collisions among project and department managers (DMi) (those who control resources) •The synchronization of the starts of the projects is based on most utilized (overloaded) resource, which is the cause of prevailing quantity of conflicts • •The above mention statement means, that all your started projects are covered by all most critical capacity resources (CCR) of the organization and due to this fact you will have less started projects. • •Less started projects results in less quantity of conflicts among project managers and department managers boxing_giant Multitasking – modified schedule-stage 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Time 1A PB 1 AB 1 2 B PB2 AB 2A AB 2 2 A PB 3 PB 3 3 A Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 We have to protect critical (DRUM) resource – in our case RED RESOURCE. At the first sight it looks like all the scheduled projects will last longer. On the other hand, these reshuffling will result in higher probability, that they end in planned time and that is the reason of less conflicts among PM and DM. conflict conflict We should push it AB-Adjoining Buffer PB-Project Buffer Collisions among project and department managers (DMi) (those who control resources) •To all three projects we have inserted buffers protecting the critical chain • • •On the other hand, after reshuffling of the schedule in order to decrease quantity of conflicts we did nothing to protect critical capacity resource (drum, CCR) • •Above mentioned statement is the reason to insert additional protecting buffer before drum resource (Drum-Feeding Buffer) = DFB = DFB 1 See next slide c%3Fq%3D1826fa62fa51dd54_large Multitasking – modified schedule-stage 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 TIME 1A PB 1 AB 1 2 B PB 2 AB 2A AB 2 2 A PB 3 AB 3 3 A Project 1 Project 2 Project 3 Conflict DFB 1 DFB 3 Conflict AB-Adjoining Buffer PB-Project Buffer We should push it forward We have to protect critical (DRUM) resource – in our case RED RESOURCE. At the first sight it looks like all the scheduled projects will last longer. On the other hand, these reshuffling will results in higher probability, that they end in planned time and that is the reason of less conflicts among PM and DM. Project Buffer (10) Buffer consumption - variant A Activity A(10) Activity B(10) Project Buffer (10) Activity A(5+8) Activity B(10) Buffer penetration = 3 days 10=(10+10)/2 Rate of penetration is used to assign priorities to the partial activities Project Buffer 2 Priorities assigned to resources •If one resource have to be assigned to two activities starting in the same moment so the first activity which will start is the one belonging to the project with bigger project buffer penetration •If none of all project buffers were penetrated with previous activities, so the first starts this activity which belongs to the critical chain. A 1 AB 1 AB 2 A 2 A2 starts first because PB 2 is partially consumed (penetrated) AB-Adjoining Buffer PB-Project Buffer Project Buffer 1 Priorities assigned to resources A 1 Project Buffer 1 AB 1 AB 3 A 2 A 2 DFB 3 AB 2 Critical chain This activity starts first because it is a part of the Critical chain and Project Buffer 1 is penetrated AB-Adjoining Buffer PB-Project Buffer Project Buffer 2 Main benefits of the Critical Chain (CC) usage •Every single project ends significantly earlier, than projects where other project management methods than CC were applied • •Total time needed to end more project than one is markedly shorter • •Promised delivery times are fulfilled with higher rate of credibility • •You will have more free capacity of all used resources Main benefits of the Critical Chain (CC) usage •Better initial estimation about project timing and thus bore accurate planning • •During starting of the projects you did not meet any problem taking into consideration drum resource • •Decrease of unfavourable effects such as Student syndrome, Murphy attacks and impacts of Parkinson´s laws by redeployment and integration of all buffers to one and only one project buffer at the end of the project • •Utilization of benefits caused by earlier ended activities • •Use of reporting system which provides you with valuable information of buffer penetration , the extent of time reserves and thus better helping system for assigning priorities project-manager-attributes Thanks for Your Attention Wave_Surfing_At_Pipeline,_Hawaii