poč.hodn. alfa = 0.4 gama = 0.1 delta= 0.4 počáteční hodnoty parametrů jsou spočteny pomocí výpočetních postupů L0 T0 0 S01 nobs 52 313427 9614.31 50394.8 S02 32122.3 S03 37107.8 S04 DATE NOBS HDPCR WINTERS-A Lt Tt St rezidua abs.rezidua rezidua2 1995Q1 1 332995 329412 327022.8 10012.5 2388.9 3583 3583 12840242 1995Q2 2 366618 374110 328710.4 9180.0 45399.9 -7492 7492 56135094 1995Q3 3 376688 374285 340560.5 9447.0 33724.4 2403 2403 5774925 1995Q4 4 390221 389103 351249.8 9571.2 37853.2 1118 1118 1250033 1996Q1 5 382859 375499 368202.9 10309.4 7295.8 7360 7360 54174710 1996Q2 6 423953 410826 399685.5 12426.7 11140.3 13127 13127 172322602 1996Q3 7 432152 441282 401968.2 11412.3 39313.5 -9130 9130 83350460 1996Q4 8 444324 445325 412268.1 11301.1 33057.0 -1001 1001 1002221 1997Q1 9 415593 421075 417434.6 10687.6 3640.8 -5482 5482 30057035 1997Q2 10 455790 447057 433938.5 11269.2 13118.1 8733 8733 76273167 1997Q3 11 461902 459903 447429.3 11491.4 12473.3 1999 1999 3997698 1997Q4 12 477809 485162 450750.6 10674.4 34411.4 -7353 7353 54067542 1998Q1 13 457925 462685 462218.0 10753.7 467.3 -4760 4760 22660367 1998Q2 14 512225 498182 485179.6 11974.5 13002.6 14043 14043 197198119 1998Q3 15 512408 511639 498008.4 12059.9 13630.7 769 769 591188 1998Q4 16 513925 517027 506621.7 11715.3 10405.3 -3102 3102 9622342 1999Q1 17 481895 496437 505664.3 10448.0 -9227.3 -14542 14542 211468486 1999Q2 18 532968 523810 517237.5 10560.5 6572.6 9158 9158 83867713 1999Q3 19 529465 533546 523263.7 10107.1 10282.1 -4081 4081 16653154 1999Q4 20 536469 540261 529157.8 9685.8 11102.9 -3792 3792 14376965 2000Q1 21 504479 514804 530914.5 8892.9 -16110.6 -10325 10325 106604093 2000Q2 22 558691 544159 543697.7 9281.9 460.9 14532 14532 211190428 2000Q3 23 557780 558418 552270.7 9211.0 6147.3 -638 638 407022 2000Q4 24 568219 569495 560063.8 9069.2 9431.3 -1276 1276 1628526 2001Q1 25 540124 543379 561659.4 8321.9 -18280.5 -3255 3255 10594113 2001Q2 26 598842 575298 575712.6 8895.0 -414.6 23544 23544 554320742 2001Q3 27 599262 594152 590285.0 9462.7 3867.4 5110 5110 26108585 2001Q4 28 613986 611073 602984.1 9786.4 8089.1 2913 2913 8484209 2002Q1 29 576665 579476 599630.2 8472.3 -20154.4 -2811 2811 7900763 2002Q2 30 630141 605588 607500.3 8412.1 -1912.1 24553 24553 602835399 2002Q3 31 621004 619022 618114.9 8632.4 906.9 1982 1982 3929151 2002Q4 32 636622 634459 629150.2 8872.7 5309.1 2163 2163 4677021 2003Q1 33 598385 601237 623292.1 7399.6 -22055.5 -2852 2852 8131593 2003Q2 34 660401 631720 632754.3 7605.8 -1034.0 28681 28681 822580377 2003Q3 35 650791 646348 645297.3 8099.6 1050.2 4443 4443 19744192 2003Q4 36 667533 662770 658688.6 8628.7 4081.9 4763 4763 22681718 2004Q1 37 650616 644080 661777.4 8074.7 -17697.9 6536 6536 42724905 2004Q2 38 716444 679554 677016.6 8791.2 2537.7 36890 36890 1360850123 2004Q3 39 712711 702654 696982.7 9908.7 5670.9 10057 10057 101150708 2004Q4 40 737591 726917 718751.1 11094.7 8166.1 10674 10674 113929635 2005Q1 41 697345 696858 714230.9 9533.2 -17373.1 487 487 237342 2005Q2 42 762115 728836 724348.6 9591.6 4487.9 33279 33279 1107463951 2005Q3 43 756632 749376 742001.8 10397.8 7374.7 7256 7256 52642309 2005Q4 44 778304 771020 760493.0 11207.1 10527.0 7284 7284 53057207 2006Q1 45 742621 742549 759873.6 10024.5 -17324.9 72 72 5225 2006Q2 46 861462 810088 793212.2 12355.9 16876.1 51374 51374 2639258959 2006Q3 47 820093 816480 809582.9 12757.4 6896.8 3613 3613 13056205 2006Q4 48 841083 836990 826887.5 13212.1 10103.0 4093 4093 16748597 2007Q1 49 817704 815354 831112.4 12313.4 -15758.3 2350 2350 5521873 2007Q2 50 899674 856700 845375.6 12508.4 11324.4 42974 42974 1846762086 2007Q3 51 314914 507979.9 -22482.1 -193066.3 2007Q4 52 177262 288540.0 -42177.8 -111278.0 588310 582110 6200 9476 217458222 yprum yvprum ME MAE MSE 14746 RMSE ##### Sheet/List 2 ##### poč.hodn. alfa = 0.4 gama = 0.1 delta= 0.4 počáteční hodnoty parametrů jsou spočteny pomocí výpočetních postupů L0 T0 0 S01 nobs 52 313427 9614.31 50394.8 S02 32122.3 S03 37107.8 S04 DATE NOBS HDPCR rezidua WINTERS-A Lt Tt St abs.rezidua rezidua2 1995Q1 1 332995 3583 329412 327022.8 10012.5 2388.9 3583 12840242 1995Q2 2 366618 -7492 374110 328710.4 9180.0 45399.9 7492 56135094 1995Q3 3 376688 2403 374285 340560.5 9447.0 33724.4 2403 5774925 1995Q4 4 390221 1118 389103 351249.8 9571.2 37853.2 1118 1250033 1996Q1 5 382859 7074 375785 368680.6 10357.2 7104.7 7074 50036961 1996Q2 6 423953 -175 424128 378843.9 10337.8 45283.6 175 30452 1996Q3 7 432152 3329 428823 392880.1 10707.6 35943.4 3329 11079087 1996Q4 8 444324 1038 443286 404741.0 10823.0 38545.1 1038 1077286 1997Q1 9 415593 -2547 418140 412733.7 10539.9 5406.5 2547 6488282 1997Q2 10 455790 -4596 460386 418166.7 10029.2 42219.4 4596 21124913 1997Q3 11 461902 -805 462707 427301.0 9939.7 35406.4 805 648752 1997Q4 12 477809 728 477081 438050.0 10020.7 39030.7 728 530449 1998Q1 13 457925 1601 456324 449849.8 10198.6 6474.0 1601 2563841 1998Q2 14 512225 3585 508640 464031.3 10596.9 44609.2 3585 12849214 1998Q3 15 512408 854 511554 475577.5 10691.8 35976.1 854 730077 1998Q4 16 513925 -4095 518020 481719.3 10236.8 36300.7 4095 16768939 1999Q1 17 481895 -5953 487848 485342.1 9575.4 2505.6 5953 35433997 1999Q2 18 532968 -2361 535329 492294.0 9313.1 43035.1 2361 5574861 1999Q3 19 529465 -2923 532388 498359.8 8988.3 34027.7 2923 8541162 1999Q4 20 536469 -2585 539054 504476.2 8701.1 34577.5 2585 6680867 2000Q1 21 504479 -4033 508512 508695.8 8253.0 -183.4 4033 16268447 2000Q2 22 558691 -465 559156 516431.6 8201.3 42724.8 465 216627 2000Q3 23 557780 -317 558097 524280.7 8166.0 33816.4 317 100498 2000Q4 24 568219 430 567789 532924.6 8213.8 34864.3 430 185007 2001Q1 25 540124 -299 540423 540806.0 8180.6 -382.8 299 89513 2001Q2 26 598842 2567 596275 551838.8 8465.8 44436.1 2567 6589539 2001Q3 27 599262 1851 597411 562361.1 8671.5 35050.2 1851 3425289 2001Q4 28 613986 2912 611074 574268.2 8995.0 36805.7 2912 8480466 2002Q1 29 576665 -2238 578903 580777.1 8746.4 -1874.5 2238 5006587 2002Q2 30 630141 -1375 631516 587996.0 8593.7 43519.7 1375 1889810 2002Q3 31 621004 -3829 624833 592335.3 8168.2 32497.6 3829 14660615 2002Q4 32 636622 -247 636869 600228.7 8140.7 36640.7 247 61210 2003Q1 33 598385 -2920 601305 605125.5 7816.3 -3820.9 2920 8523810 2003Q2 34 660401 1418 658983 614517.6 7973.9 44465.2 1418 2011374 2003Q3 35 650791 -1511 652302 620812.3 7806.0 31490.0 1511 2284091 2003Q4 36 667533 819 666714 629527.9 7897.0 37186.5 819 670157 2004Q1 37 650616 6124 644492 644229.7 8577.4 262.0 6124 37507575 2004Q2 38 716444 6902 709542 660475.8 9344.3 49066.4 6902 47635189 2004Q3 39 712711 4104 708607 674380.5 9800.3 34226.2 4104 16845356 2004Q4 40 737591 5841 731750 690670.3 10449.3 41080.2 5841 34111868 2005Q1 41 697345 -1453 698798 699504.9 10287.8 -706.8 1453 2111689 2005Q2 42 762115 1172 760943 711095.1 10418.1 49847.8 1172 1373828 2005Q3 43 756632 321 756311 721870.2 10453.8 34440.5 321 103252 2005Q4 44 778304 1764 776540 734283.9 10649.8 42256.1 1764 3111491 2006Q1 45 742621 -578 743199 744291.3 10585.5 -1092.2 578 334225 2006Q2 46 861462 20425 841037 777571.8 12855.0 63464.8 20425 417199224 2006Q3 47 820093 -1719 821812 788517.1 12664.0 33294.6 1719 2954061 2006Q4 48 841083 -848 841931 800239.4 12569.9 41691.1 848 718336 2007Q1 49 817704 2155 815549 815204.1 12809.4 344.7 2155 4645223 2007Q2 50 899674 2950 896724 831291.7 13137.2 65431.8 2950 8705443 2007Q3 51 0 2007Q4 52 0 174292 601 173692 785 13090013 3618 yprum ME MAE MSE RMSE ##### Sheet/List 4 ##### poč.hodn. alfa = 0.4 gama = 0.1 delta= 0.4 počáteční hodnoty parametrů jsou převzaty z regresního výpočtu L0 T0 0 S01 244622 7864.47 2179.63 S02 -3875.5 S03 2987.62 S04 QUARTER NOBS DEPOSITS rezidua WINTERS-A Lt Tt St abs.rezidua rezidua2 1993Q1 1 179342.9 -26332 205675 223229.0 4938.7 -17554.5 26332 693357645 1993Q2 2 179879.6 -18168 198048 207980.6 2920.0 -9932.6 18168 330091039 1993Q3 3 184157.9 -8232 192390 201753.8 2005.3 -9363.6 8232 67769369 1993Q4 4 204782.7 -707 205490 202973.5 1926.8 2516.3 707 499907 1994Q1 5 215145.3 10008 205137 216020.1 3038.7 -10882.6 10008 100156535 1994Q2 6 220120.4 3958 216162 223456.5 3478.5 -7294.0 3958 15665199 1994Q3 7 224857.6 2623 222235 229849.5 3770.0 -7614.9 2623 6880362 1994Q4 8 244498.9 3011 241488 236964.7 4104.5 4523.4 3011 9064571 1995Q1 9 257013.4 9658 247356 251799.9 5177.6 -4444.2 9658 93269795 1995Q2 10 268251.6 6685 261567 264404.7 5920.3 -2837.7 6685 44682925 1995Q3 11 280707.7 6479 274229 277524.1 6640.2 -3295.5 6479 41979294 1995Q4 12 306236.9 6318 299919 291184.0 7342.2 8735.2 6318 39913541 1996Q1 13 320848.6 9636 311213 309232.8 8412.8 1979.8 9636 92852337 1996Q2 14 329595.1 5323 324272 323560.5 9004.3 711.3 5323 28338410 1996Q3 15 336112.3 2463 333649 335302.0 9278.0 -1653.2 2463 6068807 1996Q4 16 365625.2 4432 361194 349504.0 9770.4 11689.6 4432 19638888 1997Q1 17 414840.1 19291 395549 380708.8 11913.9 14840.4 19291 372138707 1997Q2 18 441183 17226 423957 411762.3 13827.8 12195.0 17226 296724132 1997Q3 19 443649.1 7096 436553 433475.0 14616.3 3077.7 7096 50358686 1997Q4 20 473921.5 5091 468831 453747.5 15181.9 15083.4 5091 25914321 1998Q1 21 493387.1 3462 489925 472776.3 15566.6 17148.6 3462 11986753 1998Q2 22 512073.8 4153 507921 492957.3 16028.1 14963.6 4153 17246432 1998Q3 23 527451.8 5540 521912 515140.8 16643.6 6771.0 5540 30690913 1998Q4 24 549745.5 1036 548710 532935.5 16758.7 15774.0 1036 1073237 1999Q1 25 559644.4 -2591 562236 546814.9 16470.8 15420.9 2591 6715481 1999Q2 26 554565.3 -8526 563092 553812.1 15523.4 9279.5 8526 72696681 1999Q3 27 542409.4 -12131 554540 555856.6 14175.5 -1316.3 12131 147160184 1999Q4 28 536933.7 -17594 554528 550483.2 12220.6 4044.6 17594 309552115 2000Q1 29 548175 -10782 558957 550723.9 11022.6 8233.0 10782 116249710 2000Q2 30 543395.4 -9947 553342 550694.3 9917.4 2648.1 9947 98943347 2000Q3 31 547678.9 -4182 551861 555965.1 9452.8 -4104.3 4182 17488766 2000Q4 32 549152.9 -7311 556464 557294.0 8640.4 -829.7 7311 53457271 2001Q1 33 568758.9 -1947 570706 563771.0 8424.0 6935.0 1947 3791063 2001Q2 34 583195.2 3007 580188 575535.9 8758.1 4652.6 3007 9040448 2001Q3 35 589675.9 3415 586261 588088.4 9137.6 -1827.6 3415 11662389 2001Q4 36 595970.9 -153 596124 597055.8 9120.5 -931.8 153 23455 2002Q1 37 596536.5 -5967 602503 599546.4 8457.6 2957.0 5967 35604430 2002Q2 38 594155.3 -6660 600816 600603.5 7717.5 212.3 6660 44361889 2002Q3 39 580665.6 -9298 589964 597989.9 6684.4 -8026.2 9298 86453016 2002Q4 40 567335.8 -13106 580442 590111.6 5228.1 -9669.4 13106 171777596 2003Q1 41 560701.5 -13534 574236 580301.6 3724.3 -6065.9 13534 183176513 2003Q2 42 553728.3 -10984 564712 571822.0 2503.9 -7110.1 10984 120638936 2003Q3 43 548450.7 -6426 554876 567186.3 1790.0 -12310.0 6426 41288567 2003Q4 44 558026.2 -461 558487 568464.0 1738.7 -9976.7 461 212562 2004Q1 45 557442.5 -2410 559852 567525.0 1471.0 -7672.5 2410 5807978 2004Q2 46 563668.2 642 563027 569708.9 1542.3 -6682.3 642 411712 2004Q3 47 569176.8 3685 565492 575345.4 1951.7 -9853.4 3685 13578031 2004Q4 48 587564.8 7288 580277 585394.9 2761.5 -5118.1 7288 53115129 2005Q1 49 584631.3 1493 583138 589815.3 2927.4 -6677.1 1493 2229330 2005Q2 50 589489.7 1235 588255 594114.4 3064.5 -5859.3 1235 1524158 2005Q3 51 582149.8 -1863 584013 595108.7 2857.5 -11095.6 1863 3471723 2005Q4 52 599177.5 2279 596899 600497.9 3110.7 -3599.0 2279 5191970 2006Q1 53 597108 64 597044 603679.2 3117.7 -6634.7 64 4037 2006Q2 54 604796.4 1389 603407 608340.4 3272.1 -4933.2 1389 1929723 2006Q3 55 606284.6 2076 604208 613919.6 3502.8 -9711.4 2076 4311283 2006Q4 56 630641.9 6055 624587 624149.8 4175.5 437.4 6055 36659010 2007Q1 57 636801.4 5440 631362 634369.7 4780.0 -3008.2 5440 29592416 2007Q2 58 0 0 2007Q3 59 0 0 2007Q4 60 0 0 473009 -487 6506 71657592 8465 yprum ME MAE MSE RMSE ##### Sheet/List 6 ##### poč.hodn. alfa = 0.4 0.1 delta= 0.4 počáteční hodnoty parametrů jsou spočteny pomocí výpočetních postupů L0 T0 0 S01 nobs 52 6.10071 -0.1046 0.31826 S02 0.43911 S03 0.19826 S04 DATE NOBS REVENUE WINTERS-A Lt Tt St rezidua abs.rezidua rezidua2 2000Q2 1 6.55 6.351 6.218 -0.082 0.133 0.199 0.199 0.040 2000Q3 2 7 6.803 6.354 -0.061 0.449 0.197 0.197 0.039 2000Q4 3 7.38 7.147 6.552 -0.035 0.595 0.233 0.233 0.054 2001Q1 4 6.24 6.411 6.327 -0.054 0.084 -0.171 0.171 0.029 2001Q2 5 6.72 6.607 6.399 -0.041 0.208 0.113 0.113 0.013 2001Q3 6 6.47 6.591 6.223 -0.055 0.368 -0.121 0.121 0.015 2001Q4 7 5.43 5.910 5.635 -0.108 0.275 -0.480 0.480 0.230 2002Q1 8 5.55 5.572 5.503 -0.110 0.069 -0.022 0.022 0.000 2002Q2 9 5.13 5.299 5.204 -0.129 0.095 -0.169 0.169 0.029 2002Q3 10 4.48 4.827 4.690 -0.168 0.137 -0.347 0.347 0.120 2002Q4 11 4.15 4.383 4.263 -0.194 0.120 -0.233 0.233 0.054 2003Q1 12 3.75 3.890 3.914 -0.209 -0.024 -0.140 0.140 0.020 2003Q2 13 3.49 3.602 3.581 -0.222 0.021 -0.112 0.112 0.012 2003Q3 14 4.26 3.985 3.665 -0.191 0.321 0.275 0.275 0.076 2003Q4 15 4.82 4.378 3.964 -0.142 0.414 0.442 0.442 0.195 2004Q1 16 4.5 4.247 4.103 -0.114 0.144 0.253 0.253 0.064 2004Q2 17 5.02 4.656 4.393 -0.074 0.263 0.364 0.364 0.132 2004Q3 18 5.02 4.883 4.472 -0.058 0.412 0.137 0.137 0.019 2004Q4 19 4.04 4.323 4.098 -0.090 0.225 -0.283 0.283 0.080 2005Q1 20 3.62 3.812 3.795 -0.111 0.017 -0.192 0.192 0.037 2005Q2 21 3.31 3.540 3.429 -0.137 0.110 -0.230 0.230 0.053 2005Q3 22 3.26 3.420 3.115 -0.154 0.305 -0.160 0.160 0.026 2005Q4 23 3.61 3.457 3.130 -0.137 0.327 0.153 0.153 0.023 2006Q1 24 3.57 3.368 3.217 -0.115 0.151 0.202 0.202 0.041 2006Q2 25 4.05 3.748 3.437 -0.081 0.311 0.302 0.302 0.091 2006Q3 26 3.9 3.814 3.451 -0.072 0.362 0.086 0.086 0.007 2006Q4 27 3.68 3.690 3.369 -0.073 0.321 -0.010 0.010 0.000 2007Q1 28 3.76 3.647 3.421 -0.060 0.226 0.113 0.113 0.013 2007Q2 29 4.53 4.221 3.704 -0.026 0.517 0.309 0.309 0.095 2007Q3 30 4.54 4.360 3.878 -0.006 0.482 0.180 0.180 0.032 2007Q4 31 1.509 2.195 -0.174 -0.686 -1.509 1.509 2.278 32 0.809 1.122 -0.264 -0.313 -0.809 0.809 0.654 4.728 4.698 0.030 0.207 0.055 yprum yvprum ME MAE MSE 0.234 RMSE ##### Sheet/List 7 ##### poč.hodn. alfa = 0.4 gama = 0.1 delta= 0.4 počáteční hodnoty parametrů jsou spočteny pomocí výpočetních postupů L0 T0 0 S01 6.10071 -0.1046 0.31826 S02 0.43911 S03 0.19826 S04 DATE NOBS REVENUE rezidua WINTERS-A Lt Tt St abs.rezidua rezidua2 2000Q2 1 6.55 0.199 6.351 6.218 -0.082 0.133 0.199 0.040 2000Q3 2 7 0.197 6.803 6.354 -0.061 0.449 0.197 0.039 2000Q4 3 7.38 0.233 7.147 6.552 -0.035 0.595 0.233 0.054 2001Q1 4 6.24 -0.171 6.411 6.327 -0.054 0.084 0.171 0.029 2001Q2 5 6.72 0.113 6.607 6.399 -0.041 0.208 0.113 0.013 2001Q3 6 6.47 -0.121 6.591 6.223 -0.055 0.368 0.121 0.015 2001Q4 7 5.43 -0.480 5.910 5.635 -0.108 0.275 0.480 0.230 2002Q1 8 5.55 -0.022 5.572 5.503 -0.110 0.069 0.022 0.000 2002Q2 9 5.13 -0.169 5.299 5.204 -0.129 0.095 0.169 0.029 2002Q3 10 4.48 -0.347 4.827 4.690 -0.168 0.137 0.347 0.120 2002Q4 11 4.15 -0.233 4.383 4.263 -0.194 0.120 0.233 0.054 2003Q1 12 3.75 -0.140 3.890 3.914 -0.209 -0.024 0.140 0.020 2003Q2 13 3.49 -0.112 3.602 3.581 -0.222 0.021 0.112 0.012 2003Q3 14 4.26 0.275 3.985 3.665 -0.191 0.321 0.275 0.076 2003Q4 15 4.82 0.442 4.378 3.964 -0.142 0.414 0.442 0.195 2004Q1 16 4.5 0.253 4.247 4.103 -0.114 0.144 0.253 0.064 2004Q2 17 5.02 0.364 4.656 4.393 -0.074 0.263 0.364 0.132 2004Q3 18 5.02 0.137 4.883 4.472 -0.058 0.412 0.137 0.019 2004Q4 19 4.04 -0.283 4.323 4.098 -0.090 0.225 0.283 0.080 2005Q1 20 3.62 -0.192 3.812 3.795 -0.111 0.017 0.192 0.037 2005Q2 21 3.31 -0.230 3.540 3.429 -0.137 0.110 0.230 0.053 2005Q3 22 3.26 -0.160 3.420 3.115 -0.154 0.305 0.160 0.026 2005Q4 23 3.61 0.153 3.457 3.130 -0.137 0.327 0.153 0.023 2006Q1 24 3.57 0.202 3.368 3.217 -0.115 0.151 0.202 0.041 2006Q2 25 4.05 0.302 3.748 3.437 -0.081 0.311 0.302 0.091 2006Q3 26 3.9 0.086 3.814 3.451 -0.072 0.362 0.086 0.007 2006Q4 27 3.68 -0.010 3.690 3.369 -0.073 0.321 0.010 0.000 2007Q1 28 3.76 0.113 3.647 3.421 -0.060 0.226 0.113 0.013 2007Q2 29 4.53 0.309 4.221 3.704 -0.026 0.517 0.309 0.095 2007Q3 30 4.54 0.180 4.360 3.878 -0.006 0.482 0.180 0.032 2007Q4 31 -1.509 1.509 2.195 -0.174 -0.686 1.509 2.278 32 -0.809 0.809 1.122 -0.264 -0.313 0.809 0.654 2.837 -0.029 143.262 0.285 0.152 0.390 yprum ME MAE MSE RMSE ##### Sheet/List 8 ##### počát.hodn. alfa = 0.4 gama = 0.1 delta= 0.3 " Počáteční hodnoty Lt a Tt jsou spočteny podle doporučených vzorců, indexy S01,S02, S03, S04 odhadem " L0 T0 0.96 S01 nobs 52 5791.15 74.69 1 S02 6314 1.01 S03 9899.25 1.03 S04 quarter NOBS E0 - Kč/osoba WINTERS-A Lt Tt St rezidua abs.rezidua rezidua2 2000Q1 1 "5,783" 5719.248 5929.090 81.017 0.965 63.752 63.752 4064.29 2000Q2 2 "6,285" 6169.545 6120.064 92.013 1.008 115.455 115.455 13329.88 2000Q3 3 "6,417" 6357.023 6268.632 97.669 1.014 59.977 59.977 3597.23 2000Q4 4 "6,771" 6681.242 6449.295 105.968 1.036 89.758 89.758 8056.53 2001Q1 5 "5,929" 6094.589 6391.773 89.619 0.954 -165.589 165.589 27419.82 2001Q2 6 "6,506" 6517.673 6470.363 88.516 1.007 -11.673 11.673 136.27 2001Q3 7 "6,505" 6566.472 6501.148 82.743 1.010 -61.472 61.472 3778.85 2001Q4 8 "7,093" 6978.625 6689.038 93.258 1.043 114.375 114.375 13081.63 2002Q1 9 "6,156" 6286.601 6651.849 80.213 0.945 -130.601 130.601 17056.68 2002Q2 10 "6,673" 6718.480 6689.062 75.913 1.004 -45.480 45.480 2068.41 2002Q3 11 "6,810" 6819.639 6755.886 75.004 1.009 -9.639 9.639 92.91 2002Q4 12 "7,205" 7172.080 6860.942 78.009 1.045 32.920 32.920 1083.74 2003Q1 13 "6,377" 6452.994 6862.371 70.351 0.940 -75.994 75.994 5775.16 2003Q2 14 "6,903" 6928.289 6908.743 67.953 1.003 -25.289 25.289 639.52 2003Q3 15 "7,050" 7046.864 6979.655 68.249 1.010 3.136 3.136 9.84 2003Q4 16 "7,440" 7409.559 7075.638 71.023 1.047 30.441 30.441 926.67 2004Q1 17 "6,758" 6742.177 7162.687 72.625 0.941 15.823 15.823 250.38 2004Q2 18 "7,132" 7183.988 7185.939 67.688 1.000 -51.988 51.988 2702.79 2004Q3 19 "7,333" 7328.999 7257.401 68.065 1.010 4.001 4.001 16.01 2004Q4 20 "7,672" 7671.654 7325.781 68.097 1.047 0.346 0.346 0.12 2005Q1 21 "6,881" 6914.094 7360.394 64.748 0.939 -33.094 33.094 1095.20 2005Q2 22 "7,560" 7502.513 7479.907 70.225 1.003 57.487 57.487 3304.72 2005Q3 23 "7,677" 7654.999 7570.880 72.300 1.011 22.001 22.001 484.04 2005Q4 24 "8,041" 8025.476 7657.298 73.711 1.048 15.524 15.524 240.99 2006Q1 25 "7,384" 7332.859 7782.858 78.896 0.942 51.141 51.141 2615.37 2006Q2 26 "8,123" 8023.257 7956.462 88.367 1.008 99.743 99.743 9948.75 2006Q3 27 "8,285" 8221.670 8104.481 94.332 1.014 63.330 63.330 4010.66 2006Q4 28 "8,794" 8709.592 8275.514 102.002 1.052 84.408 84.408 7124.70 2007Q1 29 "8,029" 7971.936 8435.197 107.770 0.945 57.064 57.064 3256.26 2007Q2 30 "8,685" 8655.468 8570.859 110.560 1.010 29.532 29.532 872.13 2007Q3 31 "8,783" 8793.059 8671.975 109.615 1.014 -10.059 10.059 101.19 2007Q4 32 "9,204" 9220.050 8767.067 108.163 1.052 -16.050 16.050 257.60 2008Q1 33 "8,647" 8538.137 8984.934 119.133 0.950 108.863 108.863 11851.20 2008Q2 34 "9,417" 9323.314 9192.419 127.968 1.014 93.686 93.686 8776.97 2008Q3 35 "9,521" 9491.401 9348.189 130.749 1.015 29.599 29.599 876.12 2008Q4 36 "9,830" 9888.255 9426.183 125.473 1.049 -58.255 58.255 3393.67 2009Q1 37 "9,057" 9065.264 9543.373 124.645 0.950 -8.264 8.264 68.30 2009Q2 38 "9,709" 9749.608 9629.887 120.832 1.012 -40.608 40.608 1649.00 2009Q3 39 "9,641" 9749.820 9648.644 110.624 1.010 -108.820 108.820 11841.89 2009Q4 40 "10,013" 10107.361 9673.600 102.057 1.045 -94.361 94.361 8903.94 2010Q1 41 "9,123" 9191.423 9707.056 95.197 0.947 -68.423 68.423 4681.70 2010Q2 42 "9,680" 9782.529 9705.805 85.553 1.008 -102.529 102.529 10512.26 2010Q3 43 "9,743" 9806.433 9731.572 79.574 1.008 -63.433 63.433 4023.76 2010Q4 44 "10,236" 10242.331 9805.375 78.997 1.045 -6.331 6.331 40.08 2011Q1 45 "9,223" 9280.254 9826.785 73.238 0.944 -57.254 57.254 3278.08 2011Q2 46 "9,822" 9887.639 9838.001 67.036 1.005 -65.639 65.639 4308.43 2011Q3 47 "9,902" 9935.277 9873.586 63.891 1.006 -33.277 33.277 1107.38 2011Q4 48 "10,371" 10374.914 9933.908 63.534 1.044 -3.914 3.914 15.32 2012Q1 49 "9,388" 9410.436 9974.815 61.271 0.943 -22.436 22.436 503.39 2012Q2 50 "9,815" 9929.124 9927.943 50.457 1.000 -114.124 114.124 13024.34 2012Q3 51 "9,999" 10016.533 9961.805 48.797 1.005 -17.533 17.533 307.42 2012Q4 52 "10,395" 10420.206 9987.617 46.499 1.043 -25.206 25.206 635.32 8188 8193 -5.48 53.26 4369.17 yprum yvprum ME MAE MSE 66.100 RMSE