MACROECONOMICS cover art ROW 1 (90) C H A P T E R © 2008 Worth Publishers, all rights reserved SIXTH EDITION PowerPoint® Slides by Ron Cronovich N. GREGORY MANKIW Aggregate Demand I: Building the IS -LM Model 10 This chapter sets up the IS-LM model, which chapter 11 then uses extensively to analyze the effects of policies and economic shocks. This chapter also introduces students to the Keynesian Cross and Liquidity Preference models, which underlie the IS curve and LM curve, respectively. If you would like to spend less time on this chapter, you might consider omitting the Keynesian Cross, instead using the loanable funds model from Chapter 3 to derive the IS curve. Advantage: students are already familiar with the loanable funds model, so skipping the KC means one less model to learn. Additionally, the KC model is not used anywhere else in this textbook. Once it’s used to derive IS, it disappears for good. However, there are some good reasons for NOT omitting the KC model: 1) Many principles textbooks (though not Mankiw’s) cover the KC model; students who learned the KC model in their principles class may benefit from seeing it here, as a bridge to the new material on the IS curve. 2) The KC model is of historical importance. One could argue that anybody graduating from college with a degree in economics should be familiar with the KC model. cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I In this chapter, you will learn… §the IS curve, and its relation to §the Keynesian cross §the loanable funds model §the LM curve, and its relation to §the theory of liquidity preference §how the IS-LM model determines income and the interest rate in the short run when P is fixed > cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Context §Chapter 9 introduced the model of aggregate demand and aggregate supply. §Long run §prices flexible §output determined by factors of production & technology §unemployment equals its natural rate §Short run §prices fixed §output determined by aggregate demand §unemployment negatively related to output > cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Context §This chapter develops the IS-LM model, the basis of the aggregate demand curve. §We focus on the short run and assume the price level is fixed (so, SRAS curve is horizontal). §This chapter (and chapter 11) focus on the closed-economy case. Chapter 12 presents the open-economy case. > cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I The Keynesian Cross §A simple closed economy model in which income is determined by expenditure. (due to J.M. Keynes) §Notation: §I = planned investment §E = C + I + G = planned expenditure §Y = real GDP = actual expenditure §Difference between actual & planned expenditure = unplanned inventory investment > cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Elements of the Keynesian Cross consumption function: for now, planned investment is exogenous: planned expenditure: equilibrium condition: govt policy variables: actual expenditure = planned expenditure Stress that much of this model is very familiar to students: same consumption function as in previous chapters, same treatment of fiscal policy variables. Note: In equilibrium, there is no unplanned inventory investment. Firms are selling everything they had intended to sell. cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Graphing planned expenditure income, output, Y E planned expenditure E =C +I +G MPC 1 Why slope of E line equals the MPC: With I and G exogenous, the only component of (C+I+G) that changes when income changes is consumption. A one-unit increase in income causes consumption---and therefore E---to increase by the MPC. Recall from Chapter 3: the marginal propensity to consume, MPC, equals the increase in consumption resulting from a one-unit increase in disposable income. Since T is exogenous here, a one-unit increase in Y causes a one-unit increase in disposable income. cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Graphing the equilibrium condition income, output, Y E planned expenditure E =Y 45º cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I The equilibrium value of income income, output, Y E planned expenditure E =Y E =C +I +G Equilibrium income The equilibrium point is the value of income where the curves cross. Be sure your students understand why the equilibrium income appears on the horizontal and vertical axes. Answer: In equilibrium, E (which is measured on the vertical) equals Y (which is measured on the horizontal). cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I An increase in government purchases Y E E =C +I +G1 E1 = Y1 E =C +I +G2 E2 = Y2 DY At Y1, there is now an unplanned drop in inventory… …so firms increase output, and income rises toward a new equilibrium. DG Explain why the vertical distance of the shift in the E curve equals G: At any value of Y, an increase in G by the amount G causes an increase in E by the same amount. At Y[1], there is now an unplanned depletion of inventories, because people are buying more than firms are producing (E > Y). cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Solving for DY equilibrium condition in changes because I exogenous because DC = MPC DY Collect terms with DY on the left side of the equals sign: Solve for DY : cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I The government purchases multiplier Example: If MPC = 0.8, then §Definition: the increase in income resulting from a $1 increase in G. §In this model, the govt purchases multiplier equals An increase in G causes income to increase 5 times as much! The textbook defines the multiplier as the increase in income resulting from a $1 increase in G. However, G is a real variable (as is Y ). So, if you wish to be more precise, then you might consider defining the multiplier as “the increase in income resulting from a one-unit increase in G.” cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Why the multiplier is greater than 1 §Initially, the increase in G causes an equal increase in Y: DY = DG. §But Y Þ C § Þ further Y § Þ further C § Þ further Y §So the final impact on income is much bigger than the initial DG. > Students are better able to understand this if given a more concrete example, which you can explain as you display the elements on this slide. For instance, Suppose the government spends an additional $100 million on defense. Then, the revenues of defense firms increase by $100 million, all of which becomes income to somebody: some of it is paid to the workers and engineers and managers, the rest is profit paid as dividends to shareholders. Hence, income rises $100 million (Y = $100 million = G ). The people whose income just rose by $100 million are also consumers, and they will spend the fraction MPC of this extra income. Suppose MPC = 0.8, so C rises by $80 million. To be concrete, suppose they buy $80 million worth of Ford Explorers. Then, Ford sees its revenues increase by $80 million, all of which becomes income to somebody - either Ford’s workers, or its shareholders (Y = $80 million). And what do these folks do with this extra income? They spend the fraction MPC (0.8) of it, causing C = $64 million (8/10 of $80 million). Suppose they spend all $64 million on Hershey’s chocolate bars, the ones with the bits of mint cookie inside. Then, Hershey Foods Corporation experiences a revenue increase of $64 million, which becomes income to somebody or other. (Y = $64 million). So far, the total impact on income is $100 million + $80 million + $64 million, which is much bigger than the government’s initial increase in spending. But this process continues, and the final impact on Y is $500 million (because the multiplier is 5). cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I An increase in taxes Y E E =C2 +I +G E2 = Y2 E =C1 +I +G E1 = Y1 DY At Y1, there is now an unplanned inventory buildup… …so firms reduce output, and income falls toward a new equilibrium DC = -MPC DT Initially, the tax increase reduces consumption, and therefore E: Experiment: An increase in taxes (note: the book does a decrease in taxes) Suppose taxes are increased by T. Because I and G are exogenous, they do not change. However, C depends on (YT). So, at the initial value of Y, a tax increase of T causes disposable income to fall by T, which causes consumption to fall by MPC  T. Because consumption falls, the change in C is negative: C =  MPC  T C is part of planned expenditure. The fall in C causes the E line to shift down by the size of the initial drop in C. At the initial value of output, there is now unplanned inventory investment: Sales have fallen below output, so the unsold output adds to inventory. In this situation, firms will reduce production, causing total output, income, and expenditure to fall. The new equilibrium is at Y[2], where planned expenditure once again equals actual expenditure/output, and unplanned inventory investment is again equal to zero. cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Solving for DY eq’m condition in changes I and G exogenous Solving for DY : Final result: cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I The tax multiplier §def: the change in income resulting from a $1 increase in T : If MPC = 0.8, then the tax multiplier equals cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I The tax multiplier tax forms(60) §…is negative: A tax increase reduces C, which reduces income. §…is greater than one (in absolute value): A change in taxes has a multiplier effect on income. §…is smaller than the govt spending multiplier: Consumers save the fraction (1 – MPC) of a tax cut, so the initial boost in spending from a tax cut is smaller than from an equal increase in G. > cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Exercise: §Use a graph of the Keynesian cross to show the effects of an increase in planned investment on the equilibrium level of income/output. > This in-class exercise not only gives students practice with the model, it also helps them understand the next topic: the derivation of the IS curve. cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I The IS curve §def: a graph of all combinations of r and Y that result in goods market equilibrium §i.e. actual expenditure (output) = planned expenditure §The equation for the IS curve is: cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Y2 Y1 Y2 Y1 Deriving the IS curve §¯r Þ I Y E r Y E =C +I (r1 )+G E =C +I (r2 )+G r1 r2 E =Y IS DI Þ E Þ Y cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Why the IS curve is negatively sloped §A fall in the interest rate motivates firms to increase investment spending, which drives up total planned spending (E ). §To restore equilibrium in the goods market, output (a.k.a. actual expenditure, Y ) must increase. > This slide simply states the intuition behind the graphs on the preceding slide. Suggestion: Omit this slide from your presentation, and just give the students this information verbally as you present the preceding slide. cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I The IS curve and the loanable funds model S, I r I (r ) r1 r2 r Y Y1 r1 r2 (a) The L.F. model (b) The IS curve Y2 S1 S2 IS The IS curve can also be derived from the (hopefully now familiar) loanable funds model from chapter 3. A decrease in income from Y[1] to Y[2] causes a fall in national saving. (Recall, S = Y-C-G) The fall in saving causes a reduction in the supply of loanable funds. The interest rate must rise to restore equilibrium to the loanable funds market. Now we can see where the IS curve gets its name: When the loanable funds market is in equilibrium, investment = saving. The IS curve shows all combinations of r and Y such that investment (I) equals saving (S). Hence, “IS curve.” cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Fiscal Policy and the IS curve §We can use the IS-LM model to see how fiscal policy (G and T ) affects aggregate demand and output. §Let’s start by using the Keynesian cross to see how fiscal policy shifts the IS curve… > cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Y2 Y1 Y2 Y1 Shifting the IS curve: DG §At any value of r, G Þ E Þ Y Y E r Y E =C +I (r1 )+G1 E =C +I (r1 )+G2 r1 E =Y IS1 The horizontal distance of the IS shift equals IS2 …so the IS curve shifts to the right. DY This slide has two purposes. First, to show which way the IS curve shifts when G changes. Second, to actually measure the distance of the shift. We can measure either the horizontal or vertical distance of the shift. The horizontal distance of the IS curve shift is the change in Y required to restore goods market equilibrium AT THE INITIAL INTEREST RATE when G is raised. Since the interest rate is unchanged at r[1], investment will also be unchanged. This is why, in the upper panel, we write “I(r[1])” in the E equation for both expenditure curves – to remind us that investment and the interest rate are not changing. cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Exercise: Shifting the IS curve §Use the diagram of the Keynesian cross or loanable funds model to show how an increase in taxes shifts the IS curve. > cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I The Theory of Liquidity Preference §Due to John Maynard Keynes. §A simple theory in which the interest rate is determined by money supply and money demand. § > cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Money supply §The supply of real money balances is fixed: M/P real money balances r interest rate We are assuming a fixed supply of real money balances because P is fixed by assumption (short-run), and M is an exogenous policy variable. cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Money demand §Demand for real money balances: M/P real money balances r interest rate L (r ) As we learned in chapter 4, the nominal interest rate is the opportunity cost of holding money (instead of bonds), so money demand depends negatively on the nominal interest rate. Here, we are assuming the price level is fixed, so  = 0 and r = i. cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Equilibrium §The interest rate adjusts to equate the supply and demand for money: M/P real money balances r interest rate L (r ) r1 cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I How the Fed raises the interest rate §To increase r, Fed reduces M M/P real money balances r interest rate L (r ) r1 r2 cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CASE STUDY: Monetary Tightening & Interest Rates §Late 1970s: p > 10% §Oct 1979: Fed Chairman Paul Volcker announces that monetary policy would aim to reduce inflation §Aug 1979-April 1980: Fed reduces M/P 8.0% §Jan 1983: p = 3.7% How do you think this policy change would affect nominal interest rates? This and the next slide summarize the case study on p.295. The data source is given on the next slide. At this point, students have now learned two theories about the effects of monetary policy on interest rates. This case study shows them that both theories are relevant, using a real-world example to remind students that the classical theory of chapter 4 applies in the long-run while the liquidity preference theory applies in the short run. cover R1,C4 Monetary Tightening & Rates, cont. Di < 0 Di > 0 8/1979: i = 10.4% 1/1983: i = 8.2% 8/1979: i = 10.4% 4/1980: i = 15.8% flexible sticky Quantity theory, Fisher effect (Classical) Liquidity preference (Keynesian) prediction actual outcome The effects of a monetary tightening on nominal interest rates prices model long run short run Since prices are sticky in the short run, the Liquidity Preference Theory predicts that both the nominal and real interest rates will rise in the short run. And in fact, both did. (However, the inflation rate was not zero, and in fact it increased, so the real interest rate didn’t rise as much as the nominal interest rate did during the period shown.) In the long run, the Quantity Theory of Money says that the monetary tightening should reduce inflation. The Fisher Effect says that the fall in  should cause an equal fall in i. By January of 1983 (which is “the long run” from the viewpoint of 1979), inflation and nominal interest rates had fallen. (However, they did not fall by equal amounts. This doesn’t contradict the Fisher Effect, though, as other economic changes caused movements in the real interest rate.) About the data: i = 3-month rate on Commercial Paper % change in M/P from previous slide: I computed M1/CPI (the measure used in the case study), then computed the percentage change in M1/CPI over the 8-month period beginning with the month in which Volcker became the Fed chairman, August 1979. Source: FRED database, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I The LM curve §Now let’s put Y back into the money demand function: The LM curve is a graph of all combinations of r and Y that equate the supply and demand for real money balances. The equation for the LM curve is: cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Deriving the LM curve M/P r L (r , Y1 ) r1 r2 r Y Y1 r1 L (r , Y2 ) r2 Y2 LM (a) The market for real money balances (b) The LM curve cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Why the LM curve is upward sloping §An increase in income raises money demand. §Since the supply of real balances is fixed, there is now excess demand in the money market at the initial interest rate. §The interest rate must rise to restore equilibrium in the money market. > This slide simply states the intuition behind the graphs on the preceding slide. Suggestion: Omit this slide from your presentation, and just give the students this information verbally as you present the preceding slide. cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I How DM shifts the LM curve M/P r L (r , Y1 ) r1 r2 r Y Y1 r1 r2 LM1 (a) The market for real money balances (b) The LM curve LM2 If you’re as anal as I am, you might consider helping your students understand the analytical difference between looking at a shift as a horizontal shift and looking at it as a vertical shift. We can think of the LM curve shift as a vertical shift: When the Fed reduces M, the vertical distance of the shift tells us what happens to the equilibrium interest rate associated with a given value of income. Or, we can think of the LM curve shifting horizontally: When the Fed reduces M, the horizontal distance of the shift tells us what would have to happen to income to restore money market equilibrium at the initial interest rate. (The graphical analysis would be a little different than what’s depicted on this slide.) cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Exercise: Shifting the LM curve §Suppose a wave of credit card fraud causes consumers to use cash more frequently in transactions. §Use the liquidity preference model to show how these events shift the LM curve. > Answer: This causes an increase in money demand. In the Liquidity Preference diagram, the money demand curve shifts up. Hence, at the the initial value of income, the interest rate must rise to restore equilibrium in the money market. As a result, the LM curve shifts up: each value of income (such as the initial income) is associated with a higher interest rate than before. cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I The short-run equilibrium §The short-run equilibrium is the combination of r and Y that simultaneously satisfies the equilibrium conditions in the goods & money markets: Y r IS LM Equilibrium interest rate Equilibrium level of income cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I The Big Picture Keynesian Cross Theory of Liquidity Preference IS curve LM curve IS-LM model Agg. demand curve Agg. supply curve Model of Agg. Demand and Agg. Supply Explanation of short-run fluctuations Figure 10-15, p.300. This schematic diagram shows how the different pieces of the theory of short-run fluctuations fit together. cover R1,C4 slide ‹#› CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I Preview of Chapter 11 §In Chapter 11, we will §use the IS-LM model to analyze the impact of policies and shocks. §learn how the aggregate demand curve comes from IS-LM. §use the IS-LM and AD-AS models together to analyze the short-run and long-run effects of shocks. §use our models to learn about the Great Depression. > This slide serves as a bridge between this chapter and the next one. Chapter Summary 1.Keynesian cross §basic model of income determination §takes fiscal policy & investment as exogenous §fiscal policy has a multiplier effect on income. 2. IS curve §comes from Keynesian cross when planned investment depends negatively on interest rate §shows all combinations of r and Y that equate planned expenditure with actual expenditure on goods & services CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 40 cover R3,C1 > Chapter Summary 3.Theory of Liquidity Preference §basic model of interest rate determination §takes money supply & price level as exogenous §an increase in the money supply lowers the interest rate 4. LM curve §comes from liquidity preference theory when money demand depends positively on income §shows all combinations of r and Y that equate demand for real money balances with supply CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 41 cover R3,C1 > Chapter Summary 5. IS-LM model §Intersection of IS and LM curves shows the unique point (Y, r ) that satisfies equilibrium in both the goods and money markets. § CHAPTER 10 Aggregate Demand I slide 42 cover R3,C1 >