TRANSPORTATION
The increasing availability of high-speed trains and
low-cost carriers will influence classical travel flows.
Road traffic will face more congestion.
Consequences for the tourism sector:
1. Destinations will increasingly benefit from easy
and affordable access for short breaks
- in particular when major events are organised
outside of the main season.
2. The increasing availability of direct links by train
and plane will stimulate demand for international
short breaks in cities and city regions, to the
detriment of rural areas.
3. The use of high-speed trains for medium
distances will take over a large proportion of the
travel currently undertaken by scheduled airlines.
4. Road congestion will negatively influence
transport by private car - in particular in the high
season.
5. Coach trips will decrease in importance.
6. Barriers which result from non-adapted schedules
or inter-modal transportation which is not optimally
connected will have a stronger negative influence
on destinations that cannot meet the growing
wish for easy accessibility.
7. Cruises - not only expensive cruises, but also
those in `budget-class' - will increase in
popularity, in particular for those over 50 years
of age.
SUSTAINABILITY
Environmental consciousness will continue to increase.
For tourism, this will result in more demand for
sustainable destinations, in which nature and population
will play an increasingly prominent role. In order
to mitigate the costs for sustainability, the price will
increasingly be passed on to the tourists themselves.
Consequences for the tourism sector:
1 The regional component in destinations will increase
in importance.
2 Destination management policies need to be
improved through more coherent and consistent
planning.
3 The preference for destinations will be more strongly
connected to the support given by the local population
to welcoming increasing numbers of visitors.
4 Regions which have suffered from overbuilding
(particularly where this is not in keeping with the
natural landscape) will increasingly be rejected as
attractive destinations.
5 Eco-tourism should not be confused with sustainable
tourism.
SAFETY & SECURITY
Acts of terrorism, regional wars, pollution and other
crises have unfortunately become facts of daily life, and
influence the need to feel safe and secure.
In tourism, this results in an increased need for safety
and security, and in tourists avoiding destinations that
are perceived as unsafe.
Consequences for the tourism sector:
1. The quality of water (in lakes and pools, but also
of tap water) will increase in importance in the
selection of the destination, and demands better
protection.
2. The more critical tourist will more quickly make
claims if the product offered does not meet up to
the expected standards.
3. The costs for guaranteeing safety and security
will rapidly increase.
4. The industry should be better prepared to meet
tourism demand more flexibly in periods of crisis.
This text was written and co-ordinated by Herman Bos, of the Netherlands Board of Tourism (NBT),
European Travel Commission (ETC)
Contact : Lisa Davies, Media & Market Research
19A Avenue Marnix (PO Box25)
1000 Bruxelles - BELGIQUE
3 : + 32 2 - 502 01 13 / 5: + 32 2 - 514 18 43
e-mail : info@etc-corporate.org
website: www.etc-corporate.org
European Travel & Tourism Action Group (ETAG)
Contact : Bill Richards, Secretary
115 Hartingon Road
London SW8 2HB - U.K.
3 : + 44 20 7627 8633 / 5 : + 44 20 7627 8287
e-mail: etag-euro@btconntect.com
website: www.etag-euro.org
EUROPEAN TRAVEL COMMISSION
Tourism Trends for Europe
EUROPEAN TRAVEL COMMISSION
Tourism Trends for Europe
Changes in society - new ways of travel
Trends
The European Travel Commission (ETC) has
revised its document `Megatrends of Tourism in
Europe to the Year 2005 and Beyond' on the basis
of ongoing discussions with its members - the
National Tourist Offices (NTOs) of Europe - and
advice from the European Travel & Tourism
Action Group (ETAG), whose members comprise
international organisations representing the key
tourism industry sectors.
Society changes continuously, and trends - whether
economic, social or lifestyle - subsequently impact on
tourism, as tourism is an integral part of our society.
It is important for the tourism sector to assess these
changes at an early stage. Existing policies regarding
products and services, marketing and investments, all
demand appropriate adjustments or adaptations when
preferences and behaviour develop differently from the
way they have done in the past.
In the past, supply has always dictated demand, where-
as today the reverse is true. Increasing saturation of the
market and more self-assertive consumers, with more
free disposable income and leisure time, determine the
profitability of suppliers in the tourism sector.
Competition is becoming more volatile. Although some
trends are supply-funded, it is also important to forecast
trends in demand, as these trends form the basis for
determining the time and money required to make the
relevant adjustments.
In this overview, we consider trends to be future
developments that differ significantly from the past
- both quantitatively or qualitatively. The main objective
of this analysis is to support suppliers in their longer-
term policy making. The trends mentioned relate to
Western society - and to Europe in particular for the
next five years. They are based on various quantitative
and qualitative trend analyses and assessments made
by leading international tourism experts.
Finally, analysing trends leads us to the conclusion that
every trend creates a counter-trend. Furthermore, it
should be stressed that, in many cases, trends are
mixed: mixed in terms of their phase of development,
mixed in results and mixed in the level of importance.
Given this fact, it is nearly impossible to isolate tourism
development into single trends alone.
DEMOGRAPHY
The number of persons in older age categories will rap-
idly increase. Seniors will be healthier and will have
higher disposable incomes than in the past. Many of
them will enjoy early retirement schemes.
In view of this development, the number of more experi-
enced senior travellers will increase faster than the
development of tourism demand in general (although a
gradual downgrading of pension benefits, and a trend to
increase the pensionable age may slow down this devel-
opment in the long run).
Consequences for the tourism sector:
1.Increasing demand for quality, convenience and
security.
2. Increasing demand for easy transportation.
3. Increasing demand for more relaxing entertainment
facilities (e.g. golf courses etc.).
4. Increasing demand for one-person products.
5. More demand in shoulder months.
6. In marketing, less emphasis should be put on
age and more on comfort.
The average number of persons per household will
decrease still further, which will result in higher
disposable incomes and spending power.
March 2004
to personalise; artificial supply that does not
distinguish itself from others (e.g. theme parks)
will decrease in importance if it does not meet
with higher standards.
7. Experience and critical attitudes will stimulate
tourists to revisit satisfactory destinations from
their travel past.
8. The increasing preference for mobility will
stimulate rentals of vehicles.
9. Regions that offer a full, varied, totally balanced
concept will be increasingly preferred, and will
demand better destination management.
LIFESTYLES
Lifestyles in Western society change gradually.
For tourism, this influences the tourist's perception of
his/her personal needs and behaviour.
Consequences for the tourism sector:
1. Though relevant investments may be made, the
interest in `Bed & Breakfast' is lessening,
since it is regarded as cheap.
2. As 'status' is less important than it used to be,
leisure behaviour is becoming more personalised,
leading to increased demand for smaller sized
accommodation units (like smaller authentic
family hotels and tourist farms).
3. The shift in perception regarding life and lifestyle
results in a decline in the demand for fully
escorted tours.
4. Suppliers will benefit more if they are able to
create completely new products, concepts and
services that distinguish themselves by their
added value.
5. Increasing specialisation by suppliers in relation
to specific hobbies and interests will become
more important, and will more often be combined
with holidaymaking.
6. The increased preference for solid 'anchors' as
secure holds in a more uncertain world stimulates
the wish to possess second homes, also in areas
close to smaller regional airports.
7. The trend of 'back to basics' results in
preferences for more simple holidays: from hotel
to bungalow, from caravan to tent.
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
The penetration of the internet - and its use for
information and the purchasing of tourism products and
services - will continue to increase.
For tourism, the role of the internet - including new
means of visual presentation - will increase still further,
and will prove to be of the utmost importance in future.
Consequences for the tourism sector:
1. The ready availability of tourist information on
destinations and products, and increasingly
sophisticated search engines to analyse such
information will lend itself to comparison, and
thus influence competition more intensively via
`grazing'.
2. Experienced tourists will increasingly put together
their own holidays on a modular basis with direct
bookings.
3. The role of travel agents will decrease, as full
package tours are increasingly bought directly
via the net.
4. Internet will transform the classical role of the
National Tourism Organisations (NTOs) and
Tourist Boards at an increasing speed - but will
create a new role in e-marketing, including the
application of Customer Relation Management
(CRM) destination marketing.
5. Destination marketing (e.g. better branding with
public support) will increase in importance as the
source to stimulate website visits.
6. The availability of in-depth information on
suppliers' products, either on the destination site
or accessible through links, will become of more
importance as the basic precondition for the
success of websites.
7. The possibility of `shopping' via the internet will
stimulate later bookings.
8. The growing need for secure online reservations
has to be stressed in relation to more
experienced and self-assured tourists.
EUROPEAN TRAVEL COMMISSION
Tourism Trends for Europe
EUROPEAN TRAVEL COMMISSION
Tourism Trends for Europe
For tourism, this will influence demand in general,
and demand for long-haul travel and short breaks in
particular.
Consequences for the tourism sector:
1. Increasing demand for luxury (`small
indulgences').
2. Increasing demand for special products which
can be obtained on impulse.
3. Increasing demand for city-breaks and other
short breaks abroad - in periods that used to be
less favoured.
4. Higher level of interest in winter sun holidays.
HEALTH
Health-consciousness will increase still further.
Though increasing health-consciousness will not
influence the volume of demand, it will certainly
influence the decision-making with regard to
destinations, and behaviour during holidays.
Consequences for the tourism sector:
1. Destinations that are perceived as less healthy
will be more quickly avoided than in the past.
2. The demand for sun-holidays only will decrease
still further.
3. Active or activity holidays will increase in
popularity, and the demand for facilities that
correspond to this type of holiday will be
increasingly preferred.
4. The demand for `wellness' products will increase,
including spas and fitness centres.
AWARENESS & EDUCATION
The average level of education is increasing.
This will result in holidaymaking in which the arts,
culture and history play a more important role, including
more educational and spiritual holidaymaking.
Consequences for the tourism sector:
1. Increasing demand for special products.
2. The more prominent inclusion of elements
relating to the arts, culture and history in package
tours and self-organised holidays.
3. The need for better and more creative
communication of information.
4. Demand for new destinations in Central and
Eastern Europe will increase.
LEISURE TIME
Modern society exerts increasing pressure on peoples'
daily lives, and stimulates the wish for more leisure time
and relaxation - which will have an adverse effect on the
increase of free disposable incomes. For tourism, this
trend is thus by definition unfavourable - also because
the increase in the number of days of paid leave for
holidaymaking has come to a halt.
Consequences for the tourism sector:
1. An increasing need to supply additional low-cost
products.
2. An increasing need to offer relaxation.
3. A shortening of the longer main holiday in favour
of more short ones.
TRAVEL EXPERIENCE
More sophisticated consumers are increasingly
self-assured regarding their needs and rights.
For tourism, this results in an increasingly critical
attitude to quality, and to the price-quality ratio.
Consequences for the tourism sector:
1. Alternative ways of spending time and money
will increasingly compete with holidaymaking,
and within holidaymaking the preferences for
destinations and accommodation.
2. Destinations that do not meet up to acceptable
standards will suffer more intensely, and for a
longer period of time in future.
3. More mixed behaviour: this holiday simple, the
next one luxurious - this year long-haul, next year
short-haul.
4. Holiday preference will become more fragmented
in future, and thus influence repeat volumes.
5. Destination fidelity will continue to decrease over
the years.
6. More experienced tourists will increasingly result
in a more critical attitude to the artificial, in favour
of greater authenticity - in particular with
reference to emotional satisfaction and the need