Real Gross Domestic Product (GDPC1) Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Lucas (1987)
models of business cycles
Table 1   Cost of reducing growth from ,«0 = 0.03 when 0 = 0.95
	
0.01	0.45
0.02	0.20
0.03	0.00
0.04	-0.17
0.05	-0.31
0.06	-0.42
1
Table 2	Cost of consumption instability: g[o\)		
o			
	0.013	0.039	0.120
1	0.00008	0.00072	0.0065
5	0.00042	0.0038	0.034
10	0.00084	0.0076	0.068
20	0.0017	0.015	0.136
[26]
Barlevy (2005)
FIGURE 2	
	Log consumption per capita, 1948-2003 Stabilization corresponds to filling in troughs
10.2 10.0	ln(C*) ^ Interpolating NBER peaks -—^^fT
9,8	
9.6	\
9.4	ln{C*) DeLong            >^ \ ■   and Summers ln(C) estimate jf
9.2	
9.0	
8.8	
1948 '53   '58   '63   '68   '73   '78   '83    '88   '93   '98 2003	
Sources: Consumption data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis; population data from the Census Bureau.	
2
FIGURE 3
Log consumption per capita, 1948-2003
8 8 I-1-1-1-1-1-1-■-1-1-1-1
1948 '53    58   '63   '68   '73   '78   '83    '88    93   '98 2003
Sources: Consumption data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis; population data from the Census Bureau.
3