Decision tree calculation 				
				
Outcome	Probability	EVA	Expand	
"200,000.00"	0.70			
"80,000.00"	0.30	"164,000.00"		
"300,000.00"	0.70			
"50,000.00"	0.30	"225,000.00"		
				
 		 	 	
 	 	 	 	
 	 	 	 	
 		 	 	
 		 	 	
 		 	 	
 				
##### Sheet/List 2 #####
									
Decision tree calculation 									
									
Outcomes	Probability	EVA	Expand						
"3,000,000.00"	0.80								
"700,000.00"	0.20	"2,540,000.00"				 	 	 	 
									 
"2,540,000.00"		"1,740,000.00"	"-800,000.00"			 			
"1,740,000.00"	0.60	 				 	 	 	
"790,000.00"	0.40	"1,360,000.00"					 	 	 
									
"1,360,000.00"		"1,160,000.00"	"-200,000.00"		Purchase land				
"1,290,000.00"		"490,000.00"	"-800,000.00"		Expand				
 									
			 						
									
First example									
"2,300,000.00"	0.30	 							
"1,000,000.00"	0.70	"1,390,000.00"							
									
"1,390,000.00"		"790,000.00"	"-600,000.00"						
"1,740,000.00"	0.60								
"790,000.00"	0.40	"1,360,000.00"	 						
									
"2,000,000.00"	0.60	"1,200,000.00"			Upper branch				
"225,000.00"	0.40	"90,000.00"							
		"1,290,000.00"							
##### Sheet/List 3 #####
															
			Decision point												
Decision point			Change event	Payoff * Probability	Probability										
EVA-Cost	Situation	Cost 	Expected value 	Partials	%	Situation	Payoff								
	Warehouse			"1,200,000"	0.60	Market Growth	"2,000,000"								
"490,000"		"-800,000"	"1,290,000"												
							Payoff								
				"90,000"	0.4	No Market Growth	"225,000"								
															
															
															
															
															
	Compare 116000 and 49000														
															
															
															
															
								Decision point			Change event	Payoff * Probability	Probability		
								EVA-Cost	Situation	Cost 	Expected value 	Partials	%	Situation	Payoff
									Warehouse			"2,400,000"	0.80	Market Growth	"3,000,000"
								"1,740,000"		"-800,000"	"2,540,000"				
															Payoff
		Situation	Change event		Probability							"140,000"	0.2	No Market Growth	"700,000"
Decision point	Cost if purchase land	Growth (in 3 years 0 payoff)	Expected value 	Partials	%	Situation									
EVA-Cost				"1,044,000"	0.60	Market Growth									Payoff
	"-200,000"		"1,360,000"								"450,000"			 	"450,000"
"1,160,000"											Sell lend				
		No Growth (in 3 years 0 payoff)		"316,000"	0.4	No Market Growth		 			Situation				
		Situation									 				
															
															
								Decision point			Change event	Payoff * Probability	Probability		
								EVA-Cost	Situation	Cost 	Expected value 	Partials	%	Situation	Payoff
									Sell land			"690,000"	0.30	Market Growth	"2,300,000"
			"790,000"					"790,000"		"-600,000"	"1,390,000"				
															Payoff
												"700,000"	0.7	No Market Growth	"1,000,000"
															
															Payoff
											"210,000"			 	"210,000"
											Sell lend				
											Situation