Seminar 7
1. Please, go to the website: https://www.forexfactory.com/calendar
and determine the impact of GDP, CPI index, Trade Balance, Money Supply, Central
Bank Meeting (Interest Rates), Industrial Production announcements on FX price.
2. Please go to the trading web site https://www.tradingview.com/ and practice technical
analysis on EUR/USD.
Identify the basic chart patterns such as support, resistance, head and shoulders,
trading channel and MAs crossing.
3. Please, read the macroeconomic outlook for the Czech Republic and Czech koruna
and identify fundamental factors affecting the CZK value in the coming future.
4. You were recently hired by the Doolittle Corporation corporate treasury to help oversee
its expansion into Europe. Blake Francis, the CFO, wants to hire a foreign exchange
forecasting company. Blake has asked you to evaluate three different companies, and
he has obtained information on their past performances. Out of a total of 50 forecasts
for the $/€ rate, the companies reported the number of times they correctly forecast
appreciations and depreciations:
Correct Down
Forecasts
Correct Up
Forecasts
Morrissey Forex
Advisors
20 5
Pixie Exchange Land 20 4
FOREX Cures 12 12
There is a total of 35 dollar appreciations (down periods) and 15 dollar depreciations
(up periods) in the sample. Blake wants to know two things:
a. Can anything be said about the companies’ forecasting ability with the available
data?
b. What additional information should Blake try to obtain in order to form a better
judgment?