Part XXI
Future of Informatics - Chapter 1
FUTURE in Informatics ERA
FUTURE in INFORMATICS ERA
(a new era - of superintelligence and Singularity - is coming!?)
Prof. RNDr. Jozef Gruska, DrSc, Spring 2015
Wednesday, 10.00-11.40, B410
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TECHNICALITIES
Web page of the lecture:
http://www.fi.muni.cz/usr/gruska/future15
Ways to finish the lecture: (essays (10-15 pages),
exam)
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ESSAYS from 2013
S. Boudov´a: Attempts to achieve immortality.
P. Brazdil: how you envision learning in 20 years?
M. ˇCerm´ak: Informaˇcn´ı v´alka: informaˇcn´ı technl´ogie jako zbraˇn.
R. J. G. Doblas: The present and futiure of HTML
P. Eibenov´a: What is Internet doing to our brains?
L. Dolniak: Nanorobots - state of the art and expectations
M. F. Gomez-Lorenzo: Supercomputers - evolution over the last 20 years
L. Jammer-Ponc: Internet security
M. Jon´aˇs: Approaches to specification of mathematics and natural sciences
T. Kadlecov´a: Immortality - the history and future of a phenomenon
S. Licehammer: User data aggregation and behavioral targeting
I. Luhov´y: Perceived value of our future
M. Macik: Informatics - our slave or master
J. M¨akinen: The future of human-computer interactions
M. Nemec: Danger of nanotechnology and need for regulation
M. Pavla: Pluses and minuses of living to 150 for individuals and society.
V. Podzimek: Openess - a future challenge of informatics
M. Trnˇen´y: State of the art of military robots and future of warfare
M. V´ıta: Essey on Knowledge of Ignorance
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Prologue
PROLOGUE
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FUTURE WILL BE MUCH DIFFERENT
During the last half a year, leaders of science and technology (for example Stephen
Hawkins, Bill Gate, especially in informatics, have started to make society aware of the
fact that in the near future we can expect developments, especially in superintelligence,
that will change radically society and society should put a lot of effort how to cope with
it (with this danger) - if possible.
This understanding is especially due to current and expected progress in artificial
intelligence robotics, nanotechnologies, biotechnologies, genetics and in understanding as
well simulation of human brains.
For example, the December issue of the weakly magazine RESPECT had a large article
entitled Artificial intelligence may change soon the world in a danger way. Subtitle
Machines versus people.
Newspaper New York Times keep more and more often reporting about big progress in
this direction.
It starts to be clear that we are approaching one of extraordinary period in the
development of human civilisation.
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EXAMPLES
Larry Page, founder of Google is the main supporter of
Singularity university to study future.
Peter Thiel, one of key investor of Facebook, is one of
key sponsors of Machine Intelligence Research Institute
in San Francisco
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EXTREME (??) VIEWS
Once human develop superintelligence it would take off on its own and re-design
itself at as ever increasing rate. Development of AI can lead to the end of human
race. Stephen Hawking
In future humans will overcome limitations of their bodies and intelligence as well as
resources of our small planet and become a higher civilization.
Development of AI is calling Devil Elon Musk, one of most successful investors in
Silicon Waley. Musk put also 10 millions of $ to the research that would avert
superintelligence apocalypse.
I am in the camp that is concerned about superintelligence. First, the machines will
do a lot for us and not be superintelligent. That should be positive if we manage it
well. A few decades after that, though,the intelligence will be strong enough to be
of a concerned. I agree with Elon Musk and some others on this and don’t
understand why some people are ot of concerned. Bill Gates, 2014
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MORE CAUTIOUS POSITIONS
Superintellignce is not something that will be created
suddenly or by accident. Dilep Geoge, co-founder of
AI startup Vicarious.
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A MORE DETAILED VIEW of SUPEINTELLIGENCE STORY
The human brain has some capabilities that the brains of other animal lacks.
It is to these distinctive capabilities that we own our dominant position on the planet.
Other animals have have stronger muscles and sharper claws, but we have cleverer brains.
Our modest advantage in general intelligence has lead us to develop language,
technology, science and complex social organizations.
The advantage has compounded over time, as each generation has built on the
achievements of its predecessors.
If some day we build machine brains that surpass human brains in general intelligence,
then this new superintelligence could become very powerful.
And, as the fate of the gorillas now depends more on us humans, than on the gorillas
themselves, so the fate of our species would depend on the actions of the machine
superintelligence. Nick Bostrom, director of Future of Humanity Institute, Oxford
University
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OXFORD’s VIEW
SIX WAYS HUMANITY could END
1 All world pandemic dieses
2 Atomic war
3 Colapse of ecosystem
4 Syntetic biology
5 Nanotechnologie
6 Artificial inteeligence
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A VIEW of ROBOTS
Figure 1:
A usual view of a robot
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EXAMPLE of CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS
Nagasaki’s Hen-na hotel plan to employ humanoids this
summer - as announced by Japan government.
They should check in guests, escort them to the room,...
Humanoids pretty girls should understand and speak
Chinese, Japanese, Korean and English.
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EXAMPLE of CURRENT DEVELOPMENTS
1. Recently a system was designed that can distinguish
dogs from cats on more than on 97%.
Huge progress was done in the recent years in pattern
recognition and natural language processing.
A system has been demonstrate that could hear a speech
in English, write it down, translate into Chinese and then
deliver he same speech in Chinese.
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WHAT CAN SOCIETY DO ABOUT IT?
In this lecture we will discuss basic laws,
ingredients, developments and paths that are
behind this developments. As well as potential
dangers and possible strategies society can
develop.
In particular we will analyse the role of informatics
by that and its grand challenges.
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FUTURE
FUTURE
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WHY TO SPEAK ABOUT THE FUTURE? - I.
In the past there used to be no lectures about future.
Why? For two reasons:
In the past there were very little reasons to expect that
Future in 20-50 years will be much different from the
presence.Therefore there was not much of interesting
what could be said about the Future. Therefore there
was no need for talking about the future.
It usually took a lot of time, often many months, and
even years, when important new developments started
to be sufficiently well known and could have a broad
impact.
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WHY TO SPEAK ABOUT THE FUTURE? - II.
What has changed?
There are nowadays very good reasons to assume that
soon, in about 20-40 years, future will be very, very
different.Therefore is a big need, for many reasons, to
understand well driving forces of future.There is a big
need to prepare new generation for future changes.
Informatics concepts, methods and tools can be seen as
driving forces of the exponentially fast developments in
all (information processing driven) areas of society.
The existence of internet and the current publication
modes and tools allow to learn fast, often almost
immediately, when important new developments take
place.
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CHAPTER 1. INTRODUCTION
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION, FUTURE ?!!, CONTENTS
(What kind of future can we foresee for
information processing and mankind?)
SUMMARY
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MAIN POSITIONS - DEEP THOUGHTS
If you try to reach for the stars you may not get one,
but you won’t come up with a handful of mud either.
Leo Burnett
We need men who can dream of things that never were.
John Fitzgerald Kennedy
One who is serious all day will never have good time,
while one who is frivolous all day, will never establish a
household.
Ptahhotpe, 24 century B.C.
A traveler who refuses to pass over a bridge until he
has personally tested the soundness of every part of it
is not likely to go far; something must be risked, even
in mathematics. Horace Lamb
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CONTENTS
New megachallenges of science and technology and
medicine
What can be expected from this lecture?
Brief contents of all 14 lectures.
Basic views of future and their developments
Why we need and can get deep insides into future?
Examples of some useful and some wrong predictions
Abstractions from the past.
Role of information, ICT and informatics in shaping the
future of mankind
Forecasting of the future and the Black Swan principle.
Appendix
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WHAT CAN YOU EXPECT TO GET from THESE LECTURES - I.?
To understand a new view of evolution - as evolving
from the biological evolution to
information-technological evolution and to their merge.
To understand laws of the development of ICT and
their impacts.
To develop a new understanding of informatics and its
grand challenges
To understand potentials and impacts of
GNR-revolution.
To see that convergence of ICT and biology has
reached a point to achieve simulation of the human
brain and the development of a brain-computing.
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WHAT CAN YOU EXPECT TO GET from THESE LECTURES - II.?
To envision a future in which information technology
and science keep advancing so far, and so fast, that
they would enable humanity to transcend its biological
limitations.That, in turn, will transform humanity (and
your/our lifes) in ways we cannot yet imagine at all.
A thoughts provoking envisages of such future, which is
closer than most people can realize.Future, in which
mankind transcendents our biological limitations to the
extend that should have very large, important and even
hard to imagine impacts.
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WHAT CAN WE EXPECT to get from THIS LECTURE - III?
A clear-eyed and sharply focused vision of not so far
ahead future, especially concerning our information and
knowledge producing and processing future.
Stunning, looking almost an utopia vision of the near
future when machine intelligence outpasses that of our
biological brains.
An attractive and well guiding picture of a plausible
future.
A plausible vision of technology developments and their
impacts and consequences for humans.
To get a plausible vision of future in which information
technologies develop so far and so fast that they enable
humanity to transcend its biological limitations.
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WHAT CAN WE EXPECT to get from THIS LECTURE - II?
To see evolution as development of large and large
intelligence that starts to come to a new era - that
of superintelligence.
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WHY CAN ALL THAT HAPPEN?
Because improvements in information related
technologies and methodologies is and will (very)
rapidly - exponentially - accelerate.
As a consequence the power of important ideas and
technologies to transform the world is and will also
rapidly accelerate.
In particular, rapidly will accelerate development of
non-biological intelligence and a merge of human and
machine intelligence towars superintellignece
Though many people may readily agree with these
observations only very, very few really fully understand
their profound implications (comming very soon - in their
lifetime.
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BRIEF CONTENTS of ALL 14 LECTURE
BRIEF CONTENTS of ALL 14 LECTURES
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Chapter 1: INTRODUCTION, SUMMARY, FUTURE
What can you expected to get from this lecture?
A brief content of all lectures.
Why we need to know future?
Deep views about future.
How much we can envision future and what we can do
for that?
Story of the attempts to make predictions.
How to get quite reliable predictions?
Grounds for our predictions.
Appendix - references, ways to pass this course
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Chapter 2: EVOLUTION - FROM BIOLOGICAL to
NON-BIOLOGICAL INTELLIGNECE and to THEIR MERGE
A detailed analysis of the following six epochs of biological and non-biological evolution
and their impacts:
Deep thoughts.
Six epochs
Epoch 1: Information is stored in basic physical and chemical structures - basic
story of universe.
Epoch 2: Information is stored in DNA. Creation of DNA and life.Carbon-based
compounds became more and more intricate until complex aggregations of molecules
formed self-replicating mechanisms.Life originated and biological systems developed.
Epoch 3: Information is stored in neural patterns. Brains develop as qualitatively
new tools to store and process information.
Epoch 4: Brain is used to develop intelligence and that in turn is used to develop
various technologies to store and process information.
Epoch 5: Non-biological intelligence develops and a merge of biological and
non-biological intelligence follows to dvelop suprintelligne.
Epoch 6: Post-singularity developmens. Universe will be saturated with knowledge,
non-biological superintelligence and its processing.
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Chapter 3: LAW of THE ACCELERATING RETURN for
INFORMATION-DRIVEN TECHNOLOGIES
Deep thoughts
Convergence of all technologies to information technologies.
Main features of the evolution of (information) technologies.
The law of accelerating returns and Moore laws.
Examples of exponential and double exponential developments of information-driven
technologies.
Five main paradigm shifts behind ICT evolution.
Recent developments in supercomputers.
Main impacts of the ICT developments laws.
Are radically more powerful computers in vision?
What can be expected from quantum information processing and transmission?
Visions of computers to solve efficiently NP-complete problems.
Visions of computers to beat Church-Turing barrier - to compute uncomputable.
Appendix I: What are computers - developments of views.
Appendix II: The law of accelerating returns as an economic theory.
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Chapter 4: NEW PERCEPTION of SCIENTIFIC INFORMATICS
Deep thoughts.
Old and new views of computer science.
Why are old views of computer science no longer acceptable and why are new views
of Informatics much needed?
Information processing in nature - biological and quantum.
Four basic components of Informatics.
Basics of scientific Informatics.
Grand challenges of scientific Informatics.
Case studies.
Informatics as a queen and servant of sciences.
Other big challenges of scientific Informatics.
What we can learn from history of Mathematics.
Messages from the history of Physics.
Appendix
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Chapter 5: VISIONS, IMPULSES and ROADS to our NEW
PERCEPTION of INFORMATICS
Deep thoughts.
New perception of Informatics- its vision and its roots.
Growing understanding of the key importance of Informatics.
Needs of the drive to knowledge society.
Informatics as a tool for cross-fertilization in research.
Informatics as blurring out differences between pure and applied sciences.
Informatics as driving force of new education.
Informatics as a support of multidisciplinarity.
Information processing as a driving force of life.
Thoughts from physics community and lessons from history.
Needs to develop meta-science and engineering of science.
Convergence of sciences and technologies to informatics.
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Chapter 6: ENGINEERING/TECHNOLOGICAL and APPLIED
INFORMATICS and their Grand challenges.
Science versus technology.
Deep thoughts.
Basics of engineering/technological informatics.
Case studies.
Main grand challenges of engineering Informatics.
Relations between scientific and engineering
Informatics.
Other grand challenges of engineering Informatics.
Basics of Applied informatics.
Ways informatics facilities its applications.
Grand challenges of Applied informatics.
Human Genome Project
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Chapter 7: NEW, INFORMATICS-DRIVEN METHODOLOGY
Deep thoughts.
Main current methodologies of science.
Basic components of the new methodology.
Power of the new methodology.
Case study I - Algorithms design and analysis.
Case study II - Complexity considerations.
Case study III - Power of randomness as of a resource.
Grand challenges of new methodology.
Appendix
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Chapter 8: MODELING, SIMULATION and VISUALISATION
Deep thoughts.
Why modeling and simulation?
Basic types of modeling?
Basic approaches to the design of models.
History of computer modeling.
Potentials and pitfalls of computer modeling and
simulation.
Role and potential of visualisation.
Types of visualisation.
History of visualisation
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Chapter 9: DEVELOPMENTS in HUMAN BRAIN and MIND
UNDERSTANDING and OVERPOWERING
Deep thoughts.
Human brain - basics concerning its structure.
Human brain - basics concerning its functionality.
New megaproject of EU: Human Brain Project.
Towards new, sixth, paradigm of modern computing - 3-D molecular computing.
How big is information processing capacity of human brains?
Can and when computers will reach information processing potential of human
brains?
Ultimate physical limits of computation.
Information processing and life, cells and brains.
Reverse engineering of human brain.
Modelling and simulation of the human brain - why can this be done?
Pre-history of attempts to understand our own understanding.
Building models of human brains.
Interfacing brains and machines.
Getting Cyborg.
Uploading the human brain (mind).
Consciousness and information processing.
Human Brain Project of EU revisited - more on goals.
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Chapter 10: GNR REVOLUTION AS a ROAD to SINGULARITY –
Ia. G+N
Deep thoughts.
Three overlapping revolutions: in Genetics,
Nanotechnology and Robotics (strong AI), as paving
the way to Singularity.
Genetics: the intersection of Biology and Informatics.
Biochemical information processing systems creating,
reproducing and controlling the life.
Can we live ”forever”?
Biotechnology-driven ways to stop aging.
Cloning technologies and their potential.
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Chapter 10: GNR REVOLUTION AS a ROAD to SINGULARITY –
Ib. G+N
Nanotechnology: the intersection of Physics and
Informatics
Nanotechnology goals and tools
History of nanotechnology.
Drexler’s ideas
Potential of nanotechnology in biology and medicine.
Other potentials of nanotechnologies.
Nanobots and their potentials.
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Chapter 11: GNR REVOLUTION AS a ROAD to SINGULARITY –
II. R (AI)
Robotics and Strong AI.
Narrow AI - state of the art.
Toolkit of narrow AI.
From narrow to strong AI.
Strong AI and robotics.
Why it takes so long for AI to mature?
Perils of genetics developments.
Perils of nanotechnology.
Problems with nanobots.
Perils of strong AI and Singularity.
Potentials of global and fine-grained relinquishment.
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Chapter 12: SUPERINTELLIGENCE nd SINGULARITY - LIFE
AFTER (2045) a MERGE of BIOLOGICAL and NON-BIOLOGICAL
INTELLIGENCE
Deep thoughts.
Superintellignece and its types.
Singularity and Singularitarians - basic views.
Transhumanists and their muvement (H+)
Roads to Singularity and its visions.
Principles of Singularity.
Basic impacts of Singularity.
Some key elements of singularity: nanobots and virtual
reality.
Long term impacts of Singularity - saturation of the
universe with AI.
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Chapter 10: POTENTIAL DANGERS of GNR-REVOLUTION and
WAYS to MANAGE THEM
Deep observations
Perils of genetics developments.
Perils of nanotechnology
Problems with nanobots.
Perils of Superintelligence and Singularity
Potentials of global and fine-grained relinquishment.
Strategies society could take to fight dangers and their
impacts
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Chapter 13: LONGEVITY - LIFE OVER 100 (TILL 150 or after
that?) - CAN WE FIGHT DEATH? HOW (MUCH)?
Should and could we try to fight death?
History of the efforts to achieve longevity.
Why is nowadays longevity on the agenda of mankind?
Roads to longevity.
Centenarians.
Earth’s ability to handle longer-lived humans.
Would/can living longer mean living better?
Family life during longevity.
Economical and financial implications of longevity
Religion in the age of longevity.
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FUTURE - ????? - !!!!
FUTURE ???? - !!!!
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CAN WE and NEED WE to anticipate the FUTURE?
CAN WE and NEED WE anticipate FUTURE?
(Especially of Informatics, ICT and mankind?)
and
Is such a question of large importance?
If yes, for whom?
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IMPORTANCE of QUESTIONS
At the heart of everything is the question,
not the answer.
John Archibald Wheeler (1911 - 2008)
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OTHER KEY QUESTIONS - I.
Can we beat aging? How much and when?
Can we beat death?
Will we have computers with information
processing power million (billion) times larger
than that of human brain (humans brains)?
Will we have computers (robots) with
intelligence thousand (million) time larger than
that of humans?
If no, why? If yes, what afterwards? What
impacts can this have?
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OTHER KEY QUESTIONS - II.
Does mankind has good reasons to ask such
questions about the future?
Should ”ordinary” people be interested in such
questions?
Should informaticians be interested in such
questions?
Are these questions about the future that is still
much too far away?
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OLD MEGACHALLENGES of SCIENCE?
Old megachallenge of modern science
To try to understand geniality of God and ways he
designed and run this world.
20 century megachallenges:
To understand space and time and to develop Theory of
everything
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NEW MEGACHALLENGES
To beat human intelligence.
To beat natural death.
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WHY WE NEED to TRY HARD to FORESEE FUTURE?
We should all be concerned about the future because
we will have to spend the rest of our lives there.
Ch. F. Kettering, 1949
Most of you can expected to retire at the age 80 ± 10
and quite a few of you are expected to live over 100
(up to 150??). Most of your children are
expected,almost for sure, to live over 100.
Developments in many aspects of society is no longer
linear - it is already for quite a while exponential knowledge
of the past is not enough for forecasting
future.
R. Kurzweil (2006)
Wisdom of parents is not enough for foreseeing future.
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FAMOUS VIEWS of FUTURE I
Nothing gets old as fast as the future.
T. Grossman
One of the biggest flaws in the common conception of
future is that the future is something that happens to
us, not something we create.
Michael Anisimov
The future ain’t what it used to be.
Jogi Berra
The future is widely misunderstood. Our forebears
expected it to be pretty much like their present, which
had been pretty much like their past.
R. Kurzweil
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FAMOUS VIEWS of FUTURE II
I have no doubts that the in reality the future will be
much more surprising than anything I can imagine. My
suspicious is that Universe is not only queerer than we
suppose, but queerer than we can suppose.
J. B. S. Holding (1892-1964) British evolutionary
biologist
The future enters into us in order to transform itself in
us long before it happens.
Rainer Maria Rike
”The future cannot be predicted’ is a common
refrain....But, when this perspective is wrong it is
profoundly wrong.
John Smart
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FAMOUS VIEWS of FUTURE III
Change is the law of life. Those who look only to the
past or presence are certain to miss the future.
John F. Kennedy
Any sufficiently advanced technology is
undistinguishable from magic
Arthur Ch. Clarke
Everyone takes the limits of his own vision for the limits
of the world.
Arthur Schopenhauer
Almost everyone has linear view of the future - namely
that development in the next X years will be similar to
the one during last X years.
R. Kurzweil
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FAMOUS VIEWS of FUTURE IV
Why it is so difficult to see future? Because people in
general tend to overestimate what can be achieved in
short terms (because we tend to leave out of our
considerations many essential details) and they tend
underestimate what can be achieved in long terms
(because the exponential growth is ignored).
R. Kurzweil (2006)
People find it easier to be the consequence of the past
than the course of the future.
R. Kurzweil (2006)
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FAMOUS GOOD PREDICTIONS
Predictions are difficult, especially about the future.
Niels Bohr (1885-1962
Science fiction literature - Julius Verne (1828-1905),
Herbert George Wells (1866-1946), Stanislaw Lem
(1921–2006), Arthur Ch. Clarke (1917-2008), Isaac
Asimov (1920-1992) ...
Science fiction movies
Science fiction predictions are good because they are
stimulating by showing as to-be-possible what is not
known to be impossible.
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FAMOUS WRONG PREDICTIONS of LORD KELVIN (1824-1907)
X-rays will prove to be a hoax (zl´y vtip).
Radio has no future.
Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible.
In science there is only physics; all the rest is stamps
collecting. Ernest ruthenford (1912)
There is nothing really new to be discovered in physics
now. A follore belief at the end of 19th century of
physicists.
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FAMOUS WRONG IT PREDICTIONS
1939 The problem with television is that people must sit and keep their eyes glued to the
screen; the average American family hasn’t time for that. New York Times editorial
1943 I think there is a world market for maybe five computers. Thomas Watson, 1943)
1949 Where a calculator on ENIAC is equipped with 18 000 vacuum tubes and weights 30
tons, computers in the future may have only 1000 vacuum tubes and weight no
more than 1.5 tons (A visionary Popular mechanics article);
1957 I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best
people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won’t last out the
year. (The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall);
1977 There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. (Ken Olson,
president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp.);
1981 640K ought to be enough for anybody (Bill Gates)
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FAMOUS WRONG or QUESTIONABLE PREDICTIONS
Numerous The end of the world is coming predictions.
Famous prophetess (Delphi in Greece)
Question of a women: What I will have, boy or girl?
Answer of the Oracle: Boy no girl.
Interpretation I: ”Boy, no girl”
Interpretation II: ”Boy no, girl”
Astrologers, numerologists
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 58/1
FAMOUS CORRECT PREDICTIONS
Cooking - receipts
Agriculture - rules
Astronomy - movement of celestial bodies
Sex of a to be born child
Impacts of atomic bombs
Internet around 1966
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 59/1
WHEN THERE IS a CHANCE TO MAKE GOOD/DEEP
PREDICTIONS?
When resources for new developments start to be
available.
When a new law of nature is discovered.
When a new powerful resource in nature is discovered.
When a new scientific discovery is made.
When a significantly new technological achievement is
made.
When a way is found to see local developments from a
global perspectives. (For example weather forecast on
the basis of photos from satellites.)
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 60/1
WAYS to MAKE PREDICTIONS
Religious believes
Astronomy (movements of celestial bodies, eclipse on
the sun/moon),...
Astrology - even Newton and other famous scientists of
that time believed in astrology
Science (laws of physics (of motion, ....); differential
equations, probability and statistics, Bayesian rule,
economics, finances,
From deterministic to probabilistic predictions.
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 61/1
SCIENCE and PREDICTIONS
Science has two goals:
To explain
To explain phenomena in its domain.
To explain past and presence
To predict.
To predict future of phenomena and processes in its domain.
To predict future of mankind
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 62/1
ABSTRACTION (not INDUCTION) from THE PAST
DEVELOPMENTS
ABSTRACTIONS from the PAST DEVELOPMENTS
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THREE ERAS of MANKIND
Neolithic era: Progress was made on the basis that men learned how to make use of the
potentials provided by the biological world to have food available in a
sufficient amount and whenever needed.
Industrial era: Progress has been made on the basis that men have learned how to make
use of the laws and limitations of the physical world to have energy
available in a sufficient amount and whenever needed.
Information era: Progress is and will be made on the basis that man learns how to make
use of the laws and limitations of the information world to have
information (processing energy) available in a sufficient amount and
whenever needed.
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FOUR ERAS of MANKIND - VISION I
Neolithic era: Progress was made on the basis that men learned how to make use of the
potentials provided by the biological world to have food available in a
sufficient amount and whenever needed.
Industrial era: Progress has been made on the basis that men have learned how to make
use of the laws and limitations of the physical world to have energy
available in a sufficient amount and whenever needed.
Information era: Progress is and will be made on the basis that man learns how to make
use of the laws and limitations of the information world to have
information (processing energy) available in a sufficient amount and
whenever needed.
Security era: Progress is and will be made on the basis that man learns how to make
use of the laws and limitations of the physical and information worlds to
have security available in a sufficient amount and whenever needed.
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 65/1
FOUR ERAS of MANKIND - VISION II
Neolithic era: Progress was made on the basis that men learned how to make use of the
potentials provided by the biological world to have food available in a
sufficient amount and whenever needed.
Industrial era: Progress has been made on the basis that men have learned how to make
use of the laws and limitations of the physical world to have energy
available in a sufficient amount and whenever needed.
Information era: Progress is and will be made on the basis that man learns how to make
use of the laws and limitations of the information world to have
information (processing energy) available in a sufficient amount and
whenever needed.
Intelligence/knowledge era: Progress is and will be made on the basis that man learns
how to make use of the laws and limitations of the physical and
information worlds to have intelligence/knowledge available in a
sufficient amount and whenever needed.
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ANOTHER VIEW of HISTORY
If we try to see the development of the last three centuries we can discover, from the
science and technology point of view, the following common scenarios.
19th century was mainly influenced by the first industrial
revolution that had its basis in the classical
mechanics discovered, formalized and developed
in the 18th century.
20th century was mainly influenced by the second
industrial revolution that had its basis in
electrodynamics discovered, formalized and
developed in the 19th century.
21th century can be expected to be mainly influenced by
informatics, especially AI, discovered, formalized
and developed in the 20th century.
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 67/1
DEVELOPMENT of VIEWS on COMPUTING
19th century
Computing (information processing) is a mental
process.
20th century
Computing (information processing) is a machine
process.
21th century
Computing (information processing) are nature
processes.
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HOW GOOD PREDICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE?
Full and detailed predictions are not always possible.
However, when the past, recent and current developments
are carefully analysed, and proper abstraction from that is
made, quite a bit can be said for futureand with quite
large reliability.
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 69/1
WHAT WILL the LECTURE BE ABOUT? SUMMARY
An analysis of the recent, current and expected
developments in the information and knowledge mining,
storing, processing, transmission and utilization theory
and technology as well as in the new,
informatics-driven, methodology.
Well scientifically and technologically grounded and
imaginative speculations on the development and
impacts of the information and knowledge mining,
storing, processing, transmission and utilization theory
and technology, as well as a new informatics-driven
methodology .
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 70/1
WHAT ARE BASIC GROUNDS FOR for OUR EXPECTATIONS
Technological knowledge of mankind is fast snowballing with dizzying prospect for
future.
Computers, and IPC technologies, are getting not only faster and faster they are
getting faster faster (that is, the rate they are getting faster is increasing). They are
not only getting better and better, they are getting faster and faster better.
ICT performance is expected to keep growing exponentially in all important aspects.
Tools for making better and better as well faster and faster reverse engineering of
our brains also keep improving exponentially.
Miniaturization of IPC technologies also keep improving exponentially what is
expected to have enormous impact on treatment of human bodies.
Moreover, we can assume that we are
nowadays only at the beginning of the
rapidly fast growing exponential curves
for all these improvements.
All that is expected to have, practically
for sure, enormous impacts.
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 71/1
A BIG CONSEQUENCE
As a first consequence, of the increasingly faster
development in ICT and AI, one should realize that the
development of almost all areas of society will speed up
so fast that what would need about 1000 (500) years at
the current rate od development, will actually happen
within next 100 (40) years.It is therefore beyond our
full understanding how life will look in 30-40 years.
However,...
Since current informatics students are expected to retire
at the age 80 ± 10 years, or more, you can expect that
during your (working) life time you can expect what
you can now hardly not only expect but also imagine.
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 72/1
ANOTHER FORMULATION of BIG CONSEQUENCE
Now the world is networked, and ideas are having sex with
each other more promiscuously than ever, the pace of
innovation will redouble and economic evolution will raise
the living standard of 21st century to unimaginable
heights, helping even the poorest in the world to afford to
meet their desires as well as their needs.
M. Ridley, 201O
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A WORD of CAUTION - impacts of the Black swan principle
History teaches us that big progress usually comes from
discoveries, inventions and events nobody expects - from
so-called Black Swan events.
They are events such that
They are completely unexpected.
They have enormous impact.
Once they happen one can convincingly argue that we
should have expected them.
How can the Black swan principle goes along with the
conviction that we can foresee future concerning
information-driven evolution quite a bit?
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 74/1
HOW MUCH CAN INFORMATICS SHAPE FUTURE of
MANKIND?
Very much and this is another point, to be
discussed later, for having this lecture
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 75/1
APPENDIX
APPENDIX
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 76/1
REFERENCES
S. Arrison: 100 plus - how the coming age of longevity will change everything, Basic
Books, 2011
N. Bostrom: Superintelligence - paths, dangers,strategies, Oxford University Press,
2014
J. Gruska: A new perception of informatics, see web page of Academia Europaea,
http://www.AE-Info.org/ae/user/Gruska.Jozef
J. Gruska: Impulses and roads to a new perception of informatics, in ”Rainbow of
Computer Science”, Springer Verlag, 2011, p. 183-199
R. Kurzweil: How to create a mind, Duckworth Overlook, 2012
R. Kurzweil: The singularity is near. Penguin books, 2005
S. Lloyd: Programming the universe, Vintage books, Random House, 2004
N. N. Taleb: Black swan - the impact of the highly improbable, Random House
Trade paperbacks, 2010
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 77/1
Ray Kurzweil I
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 78/1
RAY KURZWEIL II
Ray Kurzweil is a very prominent inventor (in several fields), companies founder,
science writer and a visionary in USA. He is Director of Engineering at Google.
He received, from the US president Clinton, National medal of Technology, the
highest award for technology achievements, he holds 39 US patents got, 12 honorary
doctorates, wrote 5 best-sellers books, and gives in average 60 pubic lectures per
year.
In February 2011 Time magazine published about his ideas 8 pages article with title
”2045 - the year man becomes immortal”
He has been in the 5-member Advisory committee for US army for science and
technology.
He is the founder of the Singularity university, series of conferences ”Singularity
summit”.
Kurzweil made fortune as inventor and engineer. Recipient of 500 000
Lemensoln-MIT prize in 2001. Prominent US-magazine consider him as one of 16
revolutionaries that made America during last two centuries.
He invented the first reading machine for the blind, first commercial text-to-speech
synthesizer,....
prof. Jozef Gruska IV054 21. Future of Informatics - Chapter 1 79/1