Social Democratic Dominance (and defeat) Social Democratic Dominance n Were in power from 1932-1976 n Then 1982-1991 n Then 1994-2006 n This means 65 of the last 77 years n Center-Right governments in 1976-82 outspend previous social democratic governments, created a larger deficit and nationalized twice as many industries! n The current center-right government won on the social democratic theme of unemployment n 1991 electoral loss: SocDems had carried out a neo-liberal tax reform that caused an economic crisis n Hegemony: even the right has to accept social democratic ideology in order to win elections! Social Democratic Policy and The Working Class n The need to have generous welfare policies so workers have an interest in supporting the party n The need to have low unemployment so that workers would see the party as a guarantanty they will have jobs Social Democratic Policy and The Working Class: Unemployment Insurance n The social democrats came to power during the Great Depression n In the 1930s the social democratic-peasant alliance introduced unemployment insurance n To gain Peasant Party support the social democrats agreed to a lower level of support n The Peasant Party agreed to allow unions to run the funds n As a result many more people joined the unions, which made them much stronger n In return, the Soc Dems agreed to control agricultural prices and set-up a producer cooperative with mandatory membership fees Social Democratic Political Strategy and the Middle-Class n Marx was wrong: the working class is declining in numbers n Thus, social democrats need support from the middle class in order to win elections n The middle class is not willing to pay taxes to finance programs that are “means-tested” n Means-tested=benefits based on need (must be “poor”) rather than citizenship n If the Social Democrats would continue in power, the party had to create new policies that would appeal to the white-collar segment without alienating the traditional blue-collar working class voters Universal Policies n Universalism: addresses the entire population n social rights granted on the basis of citizenship rather than performance n Example: I have the right to good health care not because I can afford to pay, but because I am a citizen Universalism Builds Political Support n If programs are means-tested, beneficiaries becomes “stigmatized” n Middle-class voters think the poor are lazy and do not deserve benefits n Thus, levels are very low and the middle class votes for rightist parties n When the middle class believes it benefits from social policies, it supports them n Thus, to help the poor, one must also help the middle-class! Some basic facts n Nordic countries (ex. Norway) US n Growth: 3,1% 3,2% n WEF rank: 3,4, & 6 1 n GDP/Cap: 33000 41000 n Public exp: 48% 27% n Inf. Mort: 3,5% 7% n Life exp: 79 77 n Hours worked: 1600 1800 n In poverty all: 5% 17% n Poverty child: 3,5% 22% n Social Trust: 59% 33% n In prison: 72 /100000 725 /100000 Note: WEF = Economic competitiveness Other measures n Human Development Index 2008: Iceland #1, Norway #2, Sweden #7, Denmark #13, USA # 15, CZ #35 n Economist Democracy Index 2006: Sweden #1, Iceland #2, Norway #4, Denmark #5, USA #17, CZ #18 Political parties in Sweden and distribution of seats in parliament 2006 (2002) n Conservative Party (Moderate) 97 (55) n Centre Party 29 (22) n Liberal Party 28 (48) n Christian Democratic Party 24 (33) 178 158 n Social Democratic Party 130 (144) n Left Party 22 (30) n Green Party 19 (17) 171 191 n Total: 349 (349) The Main Causes of the 2006 Electoral Defeat: n The social democrats did not lose because the voters wanted radical changes in the country’s social policies n The center-right won because they assured the voters that they would not make radical changes n The social democratic loss represented a victory of social democratic ideology The causes of the electoral defeat n Arrogance of power n Tired, lack of vision n Didn’t discuss unemployment n Problems with coalition partners (the Greens and Leftists) – could not unite on program – Greens and Leftists against the EU – Leftists would not agree on budget restraints Causes of the electoral victory n Unity n Conservatives (Moderate Party) moves to the center and gives up market-liberalism n The center party downplays its green profile n The “fear factor” declined n “last chance” to show they can show fiscal responsibility The Move to the Center n Acceptance of fiscal responsibility and decreased emphasis on lowering taxes n Acceptance of labor market board and union power n Emphasis on improving public services n Emphasis on fighting unemployment n “the new moderates” Outflanked n Social Democrats said that ”the jobs are coming”, Moderates said that we need political measures to create jobs n Social Democrats seemed tired and out of a vision, Moderates promised ”change”. n The ”New Labour” message made voters think that the New Moderates was just a better form of Social Democrats. The voters who could afford the risk, dared voting for the opposition. Best Social Democrat wins n Most elections are won by the Social Dems n When Social Democrats lose, it’s most often because other parties are better at seeming to be Social Democratic (1976, 2006) n or the social democrats are seen as becoming market liberal (1991) n In 1976, the Centre Party promised to stick to full employment and close down nuclear power n In 1998, the Left Party acted as the safeguard of the welfare state to Social Democrat cuts The end – FINALLY!