1
International Terrorism: A Focus
on Jihadist Groups as We Prep
For the Midterm
MU MVZ 203 / 448
Spring 2010
Sonoma State University
Dave McCuan
Traditional vs. `New' Terrorism
TRADITIONAL
TERRORISM
1. Political
2. Local
3. Coercive
`NEW'
TERRORISM
1. Religious
2. Transnational
3. Catastrophic
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Global Jihadists Movements, Gen'l
* Worldwide religious
movement
* Islamist state is the goal
w/ reach from Morocco
(N.Africa) to Phillipines
(W. Pacific) & w/o
present-day boundaries
* Preaches salafiyyah or
salaf (Arabic for "ancient
ones" aka, the
companions of the
Prophet)
* AQ is the Vanguard
movement
* Collaboration &
coordination among many
other affiliated/likeminded
groups
* Large
infrastructure/support
base
* Salafi ideology is the
guide & a key pt here
The `Umbrella Effect:' What's This Mean?
* The `Umbrella Effect' is used describe
al Qaeda's influence on smaller organized
terror groups operating in many countries
around the world.
The `Umbrella' term means that while (AQ)
al Qaeda does not necessarily control all
of the groups activities, it provides
direction, resources and training.
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Learning Methods in Chechnya
* How could the process of radicalization &
the case of Chechen-based terror groups
& attacks illustrate this `Effect?'
* Moscow Theatre Attack: October 2002
* Beslan School attack: September 2004
Learning Methods in Chechnya
* Moscow Theatre Attack: October 2002
What went wrong (from the terrorists point
of view)?
* Beslan School Attack: September 2004
What did the terrorists do differently?
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Tactics of Jihadists
* Bombings, to include Suicide Attacks
* Kidnapping & Hostage-Taking
* Assassination
* Assaults
These tactics are utilized worldwide and
are part of al Qaeda's operational manual.
Tactics of Jihadists:
Appeared to be Isolated
Event on Most Occasions
* November 1997, four Egyptian Jihadist dressed in police
uniforms fired on a group of 50 Swiss tourists visiting the
Pyramids in Egypt.
* They then used knifes to bayonet and mutilate the
wounded. They decapitated some of the victims.
* The terrorists were later killed by Egyptian security
forces.
* Isolated case of extremists? Or, planned, wellcoordinated
& -executed attack?
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Chechnya v. Hezbollah
* Chechen terrorism: political, local, and
coercive
­ Dubrovka Theater
­ Beslan School No. 1
* Hezbollah's terrorism: religious,
transnational, and catastrophic
* The problem with "catastrophic" as a precursor
to terrorism
Hezbollah
* What is Hezbollah?
* What did they do in their early formation
that made this group different from other
extremist groups?
* See Sageman & Hoffman on this point.
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Hezbollah
* Hezbollah is primarily a Lebanese, Jihadist
based, terror group primarily focused on the
disputed territory of the Golan Heights in Syria.
* Hezbollah formed three main wings including a
social services branch to provide support to the
population.
* Timeline of Hezbollah? 1982-2008,2009?
* Overlap or influence of group & its timelines
with/to AQ?
* External / state-sponsored, state-sanctioned
links & relationships?
Jihadists in Israel, Palestine
* Israel and Palestine
* Conflict began over 100 years ago and
took hold after Israel became an
independent county in 1948.
* The 1st terror groups in the Middle East
were actually Jewish groups who targeted
Palestinians and British soldiers.
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Cont'd
* Terrorism became the main form of
resistance after the Six Day War, 1967.
Israel dominated the region at that time.
* A number of Palestinian groups formed
and began to serve their own interests.
Cont'd
* The three main points defining terrorism in the
Middle East, contributing to rise of Jihadists:
1. The on-going conflict between Palestine
and Israel.
2. Which Arab leader will dominate the
region.
3. The future influence and success of the
Jihadists
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The U.S. War on Terror
* The U.S. v. Hezbollah
­ Political pressure
­ Economic pressure
­ Military pressure
* The U.S. & Chechnya
­ "We resolutely condemn all terrorist acts and
senseless violence against civilians in Chechnya..."
­ "...We continue to urge a political settlement of the
conflict."
The Russian War on Terror
* Russia & Hezbollah
­ Iran/Syria
* Military aid
* Economic aid
* Political aid
­ Hezbollah's benefits
* Military aid
* Financial aid
* Geo-political aid
­ Cost/benefit analysis
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The Russian War on Terror (Cont'd)
* Russia v. Chechnya
­ Military offensive
­ Economic commitment
­ Political costs
­ Future conflict
Table 1.
International Terrorist Attacks, 1982­2003
16,1371,9072004
16,5033072003
16,2047252002
16,0373,5472001
15,5864092000
Homicides in the
United States
International Terrorism
Deaths
Year
Sources: 2000 - 2003 terrorism figures from U.S. Department of State (2004); the 2004 figure
from the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC). Homicide figures from the 2001 through
2005, US DoJ-UCRs.
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Table 2a. Some Major Terrorist Groups
Primarily via
criminal activity;
has received
training in Libya
and Lebanon
Unknown,
but has
many
supporters
in Basque
regions
Nationalist
and weakly
Marxist
Founded in 1959 with the aim of creating
an independent Basque homeland in
northwest Spain and southwest France. Its
activities have been aimed primarily at
Spanish government officials and security
forces, but French interests have also
been attacked.
Basque
Fatherland and
Liberty (ETA)
International
Sunni networks
and al-Qaeda
About 300Islamic
Lebanon-based Sunni Islamic group that
has assassinated Lebanese Shi'ite
religious leaders and bombed symbols of
Western "decadence" such as nightclubs
and U.S. franchise restaurants.
Asbat al-Ansar
Self-financed
via criminal
activity +
other Islamic
groups.
200 to 500Nationalist/
IslamicPhilippine radical Islamic group motivated
to gain an independent Islamic state in
southern Philippines. Engages in
kidnapping, bombing, and other criminal
activities. Has strong links with al-Qaeda.
Abu Sayyaf
FundingStrengthIdeologyDescription & ActivitiesGroup
Source: Department of State (2004). Patterns of Global Terrorism.
Support from
other Islamic
groups and
patrons in the
Middle East
About 1,000IslamicCoalition of a number of central Asian
groups opposed to secular rule in
Uzbekistan. Responsible for numerous
bombing incidents and kidnapping of
Westerners. Fought with the Taliban
against U.S.-led invasion of Afghanistan.
Islamic
Movement of
Uzbekistan
Donations from
Saudi Arabia
and other
Islamic states;
also donations
from individuals
Several
thousand
IslamicPakistani group operating primarily against
Indian troops and civilians in Kashmir,
territory claimed by both India and
Pakistan. Has carried out airline hijackings
and kidnapping of Westerners. HUM is
aligned with al-Qaeda and signed bin
Laden's 1998 fatwa calling for war on the
United States.
Harakat ul-
Mujahidin
(HUM)
Criminal activity,
contributions,
and
"revolutionary
taxes" extorted
from businesses
1,000+MaoistMilitary wing of the Philippine Communist
Party. Carries out assassinations and
kidnappings of political figures and U.S.
military personnel stationed in the
Philippines.
Communist
Party of
Philippines/Ne
w People's
Army
Table 2b. Some Major Terrorist Groups
Source: Department of State (2004). Patterns of Global Terrorism.
11
Funds from
Tamil
communities
overseas and
some drug
smuggling
10,000NationalismComposed of ethnic Tamils seeking an
independent Tamil state in Sri Lanka,
primarily through the use of bombings and
assassinations. The LTTE has refrained
from targeting Western tourists for fear of
drying up funds from overseas Tamils.
Liberation
Tigers of Tamil
Eelam (LTTE)
Syria, Iraq, Iran4,000 to
5,000
MarxistComposed of Turkish Kurds seeking an
independent Kurdish state in Turkey. Has
attacked Turkish diplomats in many
countries and attempted to disrupt tourism
in Turkey by bombing hotels, historical
sites, and kidnapping tourists.
Kurdistan
Workers Party
Middle Eastern
and Asian
supporters and
al-Qaeda
About
5,000
IslamicA Southeast Asian network with links to
al-Qaeda that has the goal of creating a
huge Islamic state composed of
Indonesia, Singapore, the southern
Philippines, and southern Thailand. JI
was responsible for the Bali bombing in
2002 that killed 200 and wounded 300
others.
Jemaah
Islamiya (JI)
Table 2c. Some Major Terrorist Groups
Source: Department of State (2004). Patterns of Global Terrorism.
UnknownA few
hundred +
several
thousand
supporters
IslamicKurdish Sunni Islamic group that arose in
opposition to the Marxist Kurdish Workers
Party's (KWP's) actions against Muslims.
Fights against KWP and Turkish armed
forces. Bombs any establishment
considered anti-Islamic. Kidnapped,
tortured, and murdered at least 70
businessmen and journalists in the
1990s.
Turkish Hizballah
Mostly drug
trafficking and
other forms of
crime
2,000+Marxist/
Maoist
Formed in late 1960s to destroy existing
Peruvian institutions and replace them
with a peasant revolutionary regime.
Almost all Peruvian institutions have been
brutally targeted in Peru and abroad.
Sendero
Luminoso
(Shining Path)
Criminal activity
(drug trafficking
and extortion)
and some aid
from Cuba
3,000 to
5,000
MarxistColumbian Marxist group formed by
urban intellectuals inspired by Fidel
Castro and legendary terrorist Che
Guevara. Engages in kidnapping,
bombing, and extortion. Attacks
foreigners and Columbian infrastructure.
National
Liberation Army
Contributions
from Iranian
expatriates
Several
thousand
A mixture
of Marxism
and Islam
Formed in the 1960s to counter the
Westernization of Iran under the Shah. It
supported the overthrow of the Shah but
is presently fighting against Iran's Islamic
fundamentalist regime. Carries out
attacks on Iranian diplomats and Iranian
property.
Mujahedin-e
Khalq
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Part II: Seeing the Forest
From the Trees
Part I Gives Rise to the
question:
Is terrorism effective? Useful?
Distinct from other forms of
political violence?
What about when it appears to be
successful in the form of AQ &
9/11?
What is "Terrorism?"
* Potentially politically loaded term
­ One person's "terrorist" is another's "freedom fighter"
is not theoretically robust, less scientific & empirical
* Terrorism most clearly defined by several
characteristics
­ Combatants do not represent a state
­ Combatants deliberately target civilians
­ Actions have a desired outcome & emotive quotient
* Terrorism & terrorists violate int'l rules of war
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How New Is Terrorism?
* 9/11 brought terrorism to US agenda, but
strategy is long-standing
* "Terrorist" organizations exist across the globe:
­ KKK (1865)
­ IRA(1919) & the UDA (1971)
­ PLO (1964), Islamic Jihad (1970s), Hezbollah (1982),
Hamas (1987) & Irgun (1931), Lehi (1940)
­ Shining Path (1960s)
­ Al-Qaeda (1988)
* ...and many, many others (Russia, USSR,
France, Romans, etc.)
What is Al-Qaeda? Overview from
Readings Thus Far
* Diffuse organization of radical Islamic
terrorists
­ Wahhabi sect of Islam
­ Founded during Afghan resistance to USSR
­ Funded in part by the US
* US support of Saudis and US troops in
Saudi Arabia in Gulf War turned him
against US
­ Attacked US Embassies, USS Cole, 9/11 and
more
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Why Terrorism Exists?
* Specific grievances vary from one case to
another
­ Al-Qaeda wants the US to withdraw from the Middle
East
* Generally reflect poor state control of
territory
­ State cannot maintain monopoly on control of
violence
* Generally a strategy of weaker parties
­ "Asymmetric warfare" / "Irregular warfare"
* But, does it work?
Robert Pape and The
Logic of Suicide Terrorism
* Until recently we had little systematic data
on terrorism
* Pape (2003) collected data on suicide
terror attacks from 1980-2001
­ Attacks were part of systematic campaign of
coercion
­ Attacks were always targeting democracies
* The strategy was often effective
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Successful Suicide Terrorist
Campaigns (from Pape, 2003)
* Hezbollah vs. US/France ­ 1983
* Hezbollah vs. Israel ­ 1983-85
* Tamil Tigers vs. Sri Lanka - 1990-94
* Hamas vs. Israel ­ 1994-1995
* Overall Success Rate 1980-2001
­ 6 Success
­ 5 Failure
­ 5 Remain TBD
Terrorism and Coercive
Bargaining
* Traditional military coercive threats are
difficult to apply effective
* Where should one target the offensive?
­ Exist inside states, and move across borders
* Who should be targeted as a combatant?
­ How to distinguish terrorist from civilian?
* They can retreat and regroup indefinitely
* Indiscriminant force becomes counter-
productive
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Terrorism & Coercive
Bargaining
* Traditional diplomatic tools of influence are
not effective
* Terrorist organizations are desperate and
extreme
­ Often will have "deadlock" preferences
* May lack control of splinter groups
­ Agreements may not be enforceable
­ IRA vs. "The Real IRA"
Understanding Anti-Americanism
* Central strategy in war on terrorism should be
reducing anti-US attitudes
­ This is the factory for anti-US terrorists
* "Why do they HATE us so much?" was the
popular refrain:
­ In fact, "they" don't hate "us" so much
­ Anti-American sentiment much more limited than
opposition to US policy
­ Chiozza 2004, Holsti 2004
* US should examine policies that antagonize the
rest of the world
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Antagonizing the World?
* The Palestinian problem
­ US support of Israeli occupation of 1967
territories creates widespread opposition
­ Allows Arab governments to use US policy to
deflect pressure to reform (diversion)
* Unilateralism
­ US willingness to act without IO approval
creates fear in a unipolar world
­ US needs allies in an "asymmetric" war
Part III
Foundations of Terrorism: What
Makes a Terrorist?
Midterm Prep
Spring 2010
Dave McCuan
Sonoma State University
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What Makes a Terrorist?
* Before reviewing this discussion we need
to do something. What is the meaning of
this concept?
* Quick answer: We would need to clearly
define the concept of terrorism. This is
especially important for a concept as
emotionally charged and as politically
loaded as terrorism is both as subject and
object of our inquiry.
What Makes a Terrorist?
Criteria for a definition of terrorism:
* The definition should reasonably precise and clearcut;
that is, it should be clear how terrorism is
differentiated from other forms of violence.
* The definition should be primarily descriptive or
analytical, as opposed to emotional, and subject to
empirical measurement.
* In a related vein, the definition should not be premised
on a moral or political judgment, which either
automatically de-legitimizes or conversely legitimizes
the act or terrorism or terrorists.
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What Makes a Terrorist?
* Hoffman defines terrorism is the following
manner:
* [Terrorism is] ... the deliberate creation and
exploitation of fear through violence or the threat
of violence in pursuit of political change. All
terrorist acts involve violence or the threat of
violence. Terrorism is specifically designed to
have far-reaching psychological effects beyond
the immediate victim or object of the terrorist
attack .... Terrorism is designed to create power
where there is none or to consolidate power
where there is very little.
What Makes a Terrorist?
* It is useful to breakdown the components of this
definition:
­ Terrorism is an intentionally violent act
­ Terrorism is a tool used to pursue an objective, i.e.,
political change
­ Terrorism is, at base, a symbolic act designed to
instill fear in the larger population
­ Terrorism is the "weapon of the weak."
­ Hoffman (and others) also provide one more
component: Terrorism is committed by sub-national
and/or non-state actors
­ Terrorists are not uneducated, poor, nor unwilling
conspirators.
­ Terrorists look a lot like ROTC-students (Needing financial
assistance, yet committed to country/state)
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In-Class Midterm Discussion
Terrorism is the threat or use of violence for political purposes by individuals or
groups whether acting for, or in opposition to, established governmental authority,
when such actions are intended to shock, stun, or intimidate a target group wider
than the immediate victims.
The benefits of this definition are many. Threats come under it. The violence must
be used for political purposes. That leaves out failed bank robberies that end in
hostage situations, but making distinctions between terrorism and mere criminal
behavior is not always easy. The definition includes state terror, government death
squads and "disappearances," which not all definitions do. Terrorism is designed
to influence people not involved in the incident. That addresses the question of
publicity.
The great flaw of this definition is that it fails to distinguish sufficiently between
terrorism and other forms of political violence. All forms of political violence -- riot,
rebellion, civil war, even revolution -- fit the definition, and yet common sense tells
us that terrorism is different from these other forms, or we would not need the term.
Terrorism is not an event, like a riot, nor is it a process, like revolution. Terrorism is
a tactic of carrying out political violence, just as an infantry assault is a tactic in
conventional warfare. To distinguish it from riot and rebellion, it is necessary to
look at the motivation of those involved.