1
Causes of Conflict & Political
Violence: An Introduction &
Review of Anarchy in IR
MVZ 203 / 448
Spring 2010
Masaryk University
Dave McCuan
Let's begin with a basic point:
Conflict ranges from minor disagreements,
feuds, and spats over national policies, to
various forms of violence including terrorism and
multiple kinds of war/conflict/violence, the worse
being total nuclear war.
We should ask why is `war' waged? And is `war'
the correct noun to describe conflict today?
2
Q. Why is it that most French citizens did not
fear the re-unification of Germany, even though
in WWI and WWII Germany was responsible for
hundreds of thousands of French casualties?
What would it take for the states like France,
Germany, UK, Japan, and the USA to fight each
other today?
Realists would say it is bound to happen.
But is this really likely to occur today?
Is it Due to the Structure of the Int'l
System?
* Distribution of power (# of poles ­ two poles, north and
south? Multi-polar world?) may influence global stability.
* Neo-realists argue a bipolar system is most stable ­ less
uncertainty, more effective alliances.
­ US-USSR did not fight in Cold War
* Hegemonic Stability Theory ­ one great power orders
and manages the system. Hegemon is more likely to
reduce conflict in system, unless their own power erodes
and is then challenged.
3
Due to State Level Processes?
* States vary by foreign policy. How?
­ Varied degree of democracy;
­ Varied degree in economic interdependence;
­ Varied degree of international social
interactions and interconnectedness;
­ Varied degree of trust in international
institutions.
Other Processes?
* Role of ideology, cultures, religion?
* Level of development ­ maybe some
states are more expansionist in their
history but out-grow it.
4
Basic Facts About War & IR
* Hubris ­ Most states think they will win war,
increases willingness;
* Anything that increases optimism, is a cause of
war;
* Most states think war will be short;
* Thus, most wars result from uncertainty and
miscalculation of who is more powerful­ people
keep repeating same old errors.
* In the above cases, drop the word, `war' and
insert the word, `conflict'
* Does this substantially alter our understanding
of violence in the Int'l System?
Explanations, cont'd
* It takes two states to fight a war.
* War is never an accident ­ it is an
intentional choice. The same is true of
peace.
* Why are there no names for periods of
peace, when the causes of war and peace
spring from the same roots?
5
Individual Level Factors as
Unit of Analysis
* Decision-makers may change history
* Hard-wired for war?
­ Is violence innate or learned?
* Public opinion?
­ Do people always want peace?
­ Power of ideas?
Fundamental Question
What is the fundamental difference
between international politics and
those politics that occur within states?
It is the lack of institutions with ultimate
power and authority to condition
politics.
Let's discuss the implications
6
Anarchy
Is the world is full of conflict because the
international system is chaotic"?
No. The world is anarchic! Anarchy and
Chaos are not synonyms.
By anarchy, we mean the lack of a central or higherBy anarchy, we mean the lack of a central or higherBy anarchy, we mean the lack of a central or higherBy anarchy, we mean the lack of a central or higher
authority, which characterizes the internationalauthority, which characterizes the internationalauthority, which characterizes the internationalauthority, which characterizes the international
system.system.system.system.
ˇThere is no legitimate central authority. UnlikeThere is no legitimate central authority. UnlikeThere is no legitimate central authority. UnlikeThere is no legitimate central authority. Unlike
domestic systems which are hierarchic, thedomestic systems which are hierarchic, thedomestic systems which are hierarchic, thedomestic systems which are hierarchic, the
international system is anarchic.international system is anarchic.international system is anarchic.international system is anarchic.
ˇThis does not necessarily mean that the world isThis does not necessarily mean that the world isThis does not necessarily mean that the world isThis does not necessarily mean that the world is
chaotic. Of course, for short periods of time chaoschaotic. Of course, for short periods of time chaoschaotic. Of course, for short periods of time chaoschaotic. Of course, for short periods of time chaos
has reigned, such as during times of world war.has reigned, such as during times of world war.has reigned, such as during times of world war.has reigned, such as during times of world war.
ˇThere is an abundance of peace in the internationalThere is an abundance of peace in the internationalThere is an abundance of peace in the internationalThere is an abundance of peace in the international
system. While there are many disputes and somesystem. While there are many disputes and somesystem. While there are many disputes and somesystem. While there are many disputes and some
militarized conflicts, wars are very rare occurrences.militarized conflicts, wars are very rare occurrences.militarized conflicts, wars are very rare occurrences.militarized conflicts, wars are very rare occurrences.
7
Implications of Anarchy
* Fundamentally motivates state behavior
forcing competition with no assurance of
survival.
* Self-help system: every state is on its own
* Autarky: Self-sufficiency is a goal.
* Lack of trust: Easy to lie or cheat.
* Human Rights Problems: Paradox of Int. Law
* Collective Action Problems: Cooperation is
difficult
* Only military force and economic statecraftOnly military force and economic statecraftOnly military force and economic statecraftOnly military force and economic statecraft
can be used to impose rules on other countriescan be used to impose rules on other countriescan be used to impose rules on other countriescan be used to impose rules on other countries
if they refuse to follow them.if they refuse to follow them.if they refuse to follow them.if they refuse to follow them.
* By economic statecraft we mean takingBy economic statecraft we mean takingBy economic statecraft we mean takingBy economic statecraft we mean taking
measures such as imposing tariffs, cutting offmeasures such as imposing tariffs, cutting offmeasures such as imposing tariffs, cutting offmeasures such as imposing tariffs, cutting off
trade altogether through embargoes, freezingtrade altogether through embargoes, freezingtrade altogether through embargoes, freezingtrade altogether through embargoes, freezing
assets, etc.assets, etc.assets, etc.assets, etc.
* Thus, due to the concept of sovereignty,Thus, due to the concept of sovereignty,Thus, due to the concept of sovereignty,Thus, due to the concept of sovereignty,
enforcing international law, norms, or otherenforcing international law, norms, or otherenforcing international law, norms, or otherenforcing international law, norms, or other
demands is similar to mob rule or arbitrarydemands is similar to mob rule or arbitrarydemands is similar to mob rule or arbitrarydemands is similar to mob rule or arbitrary
coercion.coercion.coercion.coercion.
8
Origin of the Security
Dilemma
Problem: By every actor seeking to
maximize their own interest, such as
security, this threatens other actors.
Security Dilemmas arise when states in theSecurity Dilemmas arise when states in theSecurity Dilemmas arise when states in theSecurity Dilemmas arise when states in the
pursuit of security pursue policies that have thepursuit of security pursue policies that have thepursuit of security pursue policies that have thepursuit of security pursue policies that have the
effect of making other stateeffect of making other stateeffect of making other stateeffect of making other state''''s less secure.s less secure.s less secure.s less secure.
Implications:Implications:Implications:Implications:
1.1.1.1.Problem of offensive versus defensiveProblem of offensive versus defensiveProblem of offensive versus defensiveProblem of offensive versus defensive
weaponsweaponsweaponsweapons
2.2.2.2.Spiraling tensions or arms racesSpiraling tensions or arms racesSpiraling tensions or arms racesSpiraling tensions or arms races
3.3.3.3.Systemic problem of the international systemSystemic problem of the international systemSystemic problem of the international systemSystemic problem of the international system ­­­­
all states affectedall states affectedall states affectedall states affected
4.4.4.4.May produce fear and conflict where none wasMay produce fear and conflict where none wasMay produce fear and conflict where none wasMay produce fear and conflict where none was
there beforethere beforethere beforethere before
9
Useful metaphor to illustrate this problem is theUseful metaphor to illustrate this problem is theUseful metaphor to illustrate this problem is theUseful metaphor to illustrate this problem is the
PrisonerPrisonerPrisonerPrisoner''''s Dilemma Games Dilemma Games Dilemma Games Dilemma Game
Imagine you and another person rob a bank butImagine you and another person rob a bank butImagine you and another person rob a bank butImagine you and another person rob a bank but
are later arrested but without airare later arrested but without airare later arrested but without airare later arrested but without air----tight evidence.tight evidence.tight evidence.tight evidence.
You are placed in separate rooms for interrogation.You are placed in separate rooms for interrogation.You are placed in separate rooms for interrogation.You are placed in separate rooms for interrogation.
You are faced with a choice to confess and blameYou are faced with a choice to confess and blameYou are faced with a choice to confess and blameYou are faced with a choice to confess and blame
the plan on the other person with the reward ofthe plan on the other person with the reward ofthe plan on the other person with the reward ofthe plan on the other person with the reward of
going free or keeping your mouth shut. If you bothgoing free or keeping your mouth shut. If you bothgoing free or keeping your mouth shut. If you bothgoing free or keeping your mouth shut. If you both
keep quiet, neither of you may be convicted. If youkeep quiet, neither of you may be convicted. If youkeep quiet, neither of you may be convicted. If youkeep quiet, neither of you may be convicted. If you
both confess, you may both get more lenientboth confess, you may both get more lenientboth confess, you may both get more lenientboth confess, you may both get more lenient
sentences.sentences.sentences.sentences.
What would you do confess or keep quiet?What would you do confess or keep quiet?What would you do confess or keep quiet?What would you do confess or keep quiet?
Now think of this situation as the potential forNow think of this situation as the potential forNow think of this situation as the potential forNow think of this situation as the potential for
nuclear black mail or the possibility ofnuclear black mail or the possibility ofnuclear black mail or the possibility ofnuclear black mail or the possibility of
disarmament.disarmament.disarmament.disarmament.
Would you disarm if you were either India orWould you disarm if you were either India orWould you disarm if you were either India orWould you disarm if you were either India or
Pakistan?Pakistan?Pakistan?Pakistan?
10
Another Recent Example of Security Dilemma:Another Recent Example of Security Dilemma:Another Recent Example of Security Dilemma:Another Recent Example of Security Dilemma:
NATO expansionNATO expansionNATO expansionNATO expansion