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Terrorism & Counter-Terrorism:
Analyzing Political Violence in the
North Caucasus
MU MVZ 203 / 448
Spring 2010
Sonoma State University
Dave McCuan
Lecture Today
* From Political Violence & Conflict to
Terrorism: A Historical Survey
* Chechnya: Nationalism, Separatism,
Salafism
* Russian Counter-Insurgency (CI) &
Counter-Terrorism (CT) strategies
* How can analysis of political violence in
the North Caucasus inform research about
terrorism?
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The First War
* Lasted from 1994-1996
* Russian Tactics (Armoured Convoys,
Aerial Bombardment...)
* Chechen Tactics (Separatism, Sufism...)
The Inter-War Years, 1996-1999
* Warlordism
* Lawlessness and Rise of Criminal Groups
* Lack of External Support
* Failure to Realize Independence
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The Second War
* Lasted from 1999-2003
* Chechen Groups, networked &
interwoven, to include:
­ Warlords
­ Military jamaats (inter-ethnic units)
­ Maskhadov loyalists
Russian Command Structure
* Unified Grouping of Federal Forces or OGV:
Operational Sectors (North, South, East and
West)
* Counter-Terror Operations overseen by MVD,
`Regional Staff Control of CT Operations in
North Caucasus'
* Includes, OMON, anti-riot police, FSB special
forces, SVR Foreign Intelligence Service,
Reconnaissance from the GRU main intelligence
Directorate
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Chechen Approach: Traditional
Low Intensity Conflict (LIC)
* Ambushes
* IEDs, targeting air-support & air-supported
elements
* Low intensity warfare
* Establishment of regional support groups
Moscow Theatre Siege
* Removal of troops from Chechnya
* Militarized nabegs (strategic hostage taking;
quick, small, highly mobile raids; and targeting
Russian sympathetic villages & towns) - ?
* Mass hostage-taking with suicidal intent
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Chechen Separatism
* Targeted assassinations
* IED attacks and ambushes
* Suicide attacks
* Basayev: operation `antiterrorism'/operation
`Boomerang'
Russian Counter-Insurgency
* Normalization: Use of pro-Kremlin
Chechen militias (Zapad as an example)
* Information War
* Zachistka (1st and 2nd War)
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Countering and/or Combating
Terrorism
* Mobile forces, Krontakniki
* Isolate and Eliminate (Intelligence Led
Isolation of Foreign Fighters)
* Hard Responses (Assassination in
Chechnya and Abroad, Counter HostageTaking,
Counter-Financial Support
Networks)
Political Implications
* Centralization of Power
* Role of the Siloviki
* Role of Judiciary
* Culture and Policing
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Events in 2004
* Death of Abu
Walid/Zelimkhan
Yandarbiyev/Ruslan
Gelayev
* Death of Akhmed
Kadyrov
* Attack on Nazran
* Escalation of Terror
Attacks in the run up
to the election
Prigorodny ­ Ossetia & Ingushetia
1992
* Around 2,000 killed + around 1,000
hostages
* 30,000 Ingush refugees ­ ethnic tension
* 1992-2004 : High concentration of arms +
state of emergency
* High concentration of kidnapping,
hostage-taking and criminal activities
* Continued state of emergency
* Nazran attack, June 2004
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Beslan Attack ­ Sept 2004
334 Civilians Killed, incl. 186 Children
Beslan, Overview
* Third largest
city/town in the
Republic.
* Population, by
Sept 2004,
estimated at
36,000-38,000.
* N. Ossetia seen
as "loyal" to
Moscow & Russia.
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General Themes
* Internal Problems / "Chechenization"
* Control Media + NGOs
* Widespread use of force + Regional
Instability
* Amnesty Former Fighters/Stabilization
* Regional Terrorism?
* Counter-Insurgency and Counter-
Terrorism
Analyzing Political Violence: Lessons What
Does This Case Teach Us About
Radicalization & Rise of Terror Tactics?
* Detailed Understanding of Chechen Culture,
History, & Politics
* Centralization of Power (by Putin)
* Detailed Understanding of Russian Culture,
History, & Politics
* Different Experience of Terrorism & CounterTerrorism
(CT) in Russia
* Different Political System values (esp. with
emerging democracies)
* See article on IS regarding Beslan siege, raid