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Terror, Violence, Conflict, & the Law
Week 3: A Review Thus Far
MU MVZ 203 / 448
Masaryk University
Spring 2010
Dave McCuan
Week 1 ­ Theme of "What is
Terrorism?"
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Defining "Terrorism"
"A synthesis of war and theater; a
dramatization of the most proscribed kind
of violence ­ that which is perpetrated on
innocent victims ­ played before an
audience in the hope of creating a mood of
fear, for political purposes." (Cindy Combs
p. 10)
Defining "War"
The Social Science literature defines "war" as
having these conditions:
­ Armed conflict between gov't OR between a gov't &
an organized, domestic armed group;
­ Where at least 1000 people are killed; or are killed
yearly (think "civil war" for these last two key
qualifiers);
­ Deaths must be directly linked to violence of conflict;
­ Relaxation recently on "armed, uniformed
combatants" in this literature.
­ Only two currently using this definition: Iraq, Sudan
­ What about Afghanistan, Nepal, Israel, Chechnya, Sri
Lanka, Colombia, Kashmir, or Nigeria?
­ What's happened since the end of the Cold War?
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Main Components of Any Terrorism
Definition
1. Act of violence
2. Political motive or goal
3. Perpetrated against innocent
persons
4. Staged before an audience with goal
of striking fear; emotive context.
Nature of This Definition:
* Difficult to define. Where does crime or war end
and terrorism begin?
* Broad coverage of many different types of violent
acts with different political objectives.
* Innocent victims are targeted to produce fear,
and eventually pressure to change policy. This is
the drama, the fear of arbitrary and sudden death
and trauma.
* Terrorist acts are particularly a tool used by the
politically and militarily weak, whether it is
countries or groups.
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Terrorism Data, Week II: Towards a
Typology of Terror: (Hoffman, et al.)
* State Sponsored: Which
states have sponsored
terrorism?
­ Internal: Mass Terror as
Repression
­ External: Against other states or
foreign groups
* Objectives:
­ Internal: Terror of citizens
prevents resistance or crush
resistance
­ External: Undermine other states
or alternative to conventional war
for weak states.
Typology of Terror, cont'd
* Revolutionary/insurgency movements
­ Dynastic assassination
­ Tactical Terror against government
­ May be related to cultural or religious conflict
* Secular vs. religion or religion vs. religion
* Objectives
­ Change policy or remove current leaders
­ Destroy morale and will to fight resulting in
more autonomy, freedom, or control of
government
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Typology of Terror, cont'd
* Transnational Networks
­ "Focused" Random Terror (Cole Bombing,
Beirut `83, US embassies)
­ Random Terror or a "New Wave?:" (9/11)
* Objectives (related)
­ Change policy (fight imperialism)
­ Cultural-Religious revenge or war
­ Spread fear to reduce morale and confidence
Proportion of death from terrorism in
total death in the United States
0.12240462428932001
0.0012534203271990s
Proportion
(%)
From all
causes
From
terrorism
Average
death per
year
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Risk of Dying
One in 50,000,000Terrorism attack in 1990's
One in 10,000,000Hit by lightning
One in 100,000Terrorism attack in 2001
One in 100,000Homicide
One in 25,000Playing soccer
One in 8,000Road accident
One in 850All natural causes age 40
One in 200Smoking 10 cigarettes a day
From Penguin Books, 1987; 2002
Death Rate of Various Causes in
2000 USA & Deaths From Terror
One in 50,000,000Terrorism in 1990s
One in 100,000Terrorism in 2001
One in 20,000Homicide*
One in 10,000Suicide*
One in 4,000Diabetes*
One in 3,000Accidents *
One in 2,000Cerebrovascular
diseases*
One in 500Cancer *
One in 400Heart disease*
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The History of Int'l Terrorism in the Second
Half of the 20th Century ­ A "New Wave?"
* The second half of the
twentieth century was
marked by the
development of the
number of international
terrorist organizations.
This development could
be divided into several
periods.
* How can we / do we
characterize this wave?
* Are there successive
waves that have led to
this rise?
* Are we in an anomalous
period of terrorism &
politically violent
activities?
* How can we "explain" the
current period?
The First Period (50-60 years)
Most international terrorist organizations, that were developed in this
period are left-radical or Marxist
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The Second Period (70-80 years)
Most of arising organizations were Islamic (more than a half)
The Third Period (90th years)
At that time the number of arising nationalistic organizations is
more then ever.
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Work of Al Qaeda before 9/11
US Embassy bombing in
Kenya
US Embassy in
Tanzania
What are the "Roots of Terrorism?"
* Oppression or perception thereof
* Limited ability to fight back using
conventional and/or peaceful methods
* Conflict seen as moral and necessary,
even at the expense of so-called innocent
victims
* Religious or ideological motivation
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Who Becomes a "Crusading"
Terrorist?
* Professional and systematic
* Daring, dedicated, and brave
* Acts without remorse or pity
* Education, gender, and age?
* Religious or ideological
* Background of poverty, hardship, or
violence
* Usually from an oppressed land
* Socialized into violence (group dynamics)
Group dynamics is particularly important. Almost all
crusading terrorists work in groups.
Groups provide:
1. A world view (ideology);
2. Recruitment of members;
3. Leadership and planning;
4. Resources (weapons, money);
5. Socialization and training.
Today, in general, the most intelligent, educated, or
experienced members (usually older) lead the
organization and enlist younger more daring and less
questioning members to do the dirty work of carrying
out attacks. Yet, even this model is suspect.
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Problems to Overcome
* Most transnational sophisticated terrorists work in
networks that do not operate based on the same
rules of international relations:
1. Countries are encumbered by issues of sovereignty
that make cooperation difficult to sustain.
2. Countries do not trust each other well enough to
reveal intelligence if it provides hints about how the
CIA or other agencies typically operate.
3. Terrorist Networks benefit from increased travel and
economic flows around the world.
4. Terrorist Networks often do fund their activities
through illicit activities (drugs, guns, sex) and charities.
Problems to Overcome, cont'd
* Terrorists Networks often lack a concrete
hierarchy, which makes them difficult to
eliminate.
* Fighting terrorism may thus be similar to
other `open-ended' fights like the `war on
drugs' or `war on poverty.'
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Problems to Overcome, cont'd
* Networks funnel large sums of money,
organization, and procurement of weapons.
* Cultural conflict: Is jihad growing as a
threat?
* Threat, even the preoccupation
(obsession?) that is WMD terror.
Assessing the Threat
* Transnational terrorism on a global scale is
easier today and thus harder to stamp out.
* Real threat that makes it more than a
nuisance is WMD:
­ Nukes? Not easy to do but Dirty bomb real
easy!!
­ Chem? Not good if you are a victim but not as
dangerous as some. Also, no shortage
globally.
­ Bio: Very dangerous unless well-prepared.
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Assessing the Threat
* The Iraq Diversion[?]
­ The only WMD Iraq may have had would
have been Chem Weapons, which are by no
means rare.
­ Iraq is not innocent but a less severe offender
on most wanted Terrorist nations list.
­ Why wouldn't deterrence work with Iraq?
­ Risk of civil war, already begun, claiming
thousands of Iraqi lives.
Options to Combat Terrorism
* Need high-quality intelligence to thwart plans and
attacks: Requires allies and spies able to
penetrate terror cells.
* Domestic security: transportation, food, etc.
* Working against the proliferation of WMD
* Military option: Occupation and defeat of terrorist
states, etc.
* Settling or reducing issues or conflicts that incite
terrorism. Try to win the hearts or at least not
radicalize your enemies, making recruitment more
difficult.
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Deeper Questions
* Why has terrorism become more violent
and indiscriminate?
* How much liberty should be given-up to
reduce threat of terrorism?
* Is terrorism (without WMD) really a strong
threat?
* What could be done to dispel the notion
that the USA or other western states are
threats? Would this be enough?
Our Views About Terrorism?
* Winning hearts and minds of people is key. Why?
* Terrorism can't be "defeated."
* Don't provide terrorists with good propaganda in
Iraq, Middle Eastern regimes, unflinching support
of Israel no matter the issue.
* Without winning hearts and minds, we have no
allies and thus are crippling ourselves.
* Dependence on oil from the region means we are
more involved than is desirable.
* Resource Constraints + Energy politics =
Terrorism Interaction / Entanglements