1 1
The Future of Terrorism & The
AQ Model of Political Violence
Spring 2010
Masaryk University
Department of Int’l Relations &
European Studies
Dave McCuan
Part I: The Setup
How is Terrorism Today Different or Unique?
What are the trends affecting terrorism of the
past 20-30 years?
What are we to expect for the next 20-30
years?
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Seven Key Drivers of Global Change
Source: Robert L. Hutchings, Chairman of the [US] National Intelligence council in introduction to National Intelligence Council. Mapping the
Global Future: Report of the National Intelligence Council ‘s 2020 Project. Washington, D.C., NIC, 2005, .p 2
1. Demographics
2. Natural resources & the environment
3. Science & technology
4. The global economy & globalization
5. National and international governance
6. Future conflict(s)
7. The role the United States & its influence
• Globalization
• Demography
• Rise of New Powers
• Decay of International Institutions
• Climate Change
• Geopolitics of Energy
Source: [US] National Intelligence Council. Global Trends 2025. A Transformed World Washington, D.C. , GPO, November 2008 (NIC 2008-003).
Key Drivers of ‘Global Trends 2025: A
Transformed World’
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• Mass communication and propaganda
• Western responses to radicalisation
• Governance in target countries
• Western dominance (both real and perceived)
• State-to-state tensions
• Religion (and its relationship to politics)
• Government responsiveness (civil society)
• Immigration and demographics
• “Us- vs. -Them” identity politics
• New ideologies
• Resources (scarcities, conflicts over ~)
• Violence (associated with extremism)
“Global Futures Forum. Radical Worlds of 2020. Imagining the Futures of Radicalisation.” The Hague, 12-14 December 2007, pp. 54.
Key Drivers of Radicalization, according to
“Global Futures Forum”
• Resilience and longevity of the international jihadist
networks
• Unipolar exclusionist and interventionist world order
• Weak transitional states
• Non-state actors in global politics
• Globalization of organized crime
• Middle East oil dependence
• Migration and ethnic heterogenisation of Western societies
• Growing information interconnectedness
• Proliferation of deadly technologies
• Out-of-area spillovers from ongoing armed conflicts
Source:Brynjar Lia. Globalisation and the Future of Terrorism: Patterns and Predictions. London, Routledge, 2005, pp. 187-188.
Factors Facilitating Future Terrorism,
according to Brynar Lia (2005)
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Terrorist Incidents Worldwide, 1998 - 2007
990724759627669Total
18694876334792007
209911207166602006
15269819249762005
10860506626472004
6200234618992003
7349276326482002
6403457117322001
257078311512000
253484711721999
8202217212861998
InjuredFatalitiesIncidentsYear
Democratic Republic of the Congo, since 1990 4,000,000+
Sudan since 1983 2,000,000+
Afghanistan since 1978 1,500,000+
Uganda since 1987 500,000
Somalia since 1988 400,000
Sudan/Darfur since 2003 400,000
Burundi since 1993 300,000
Algeria since 1992 200,000
Colombia since 1964 200,000
Philippines since 1971 150,000
Israel/Palestine since 1948 120,000
Sri Lanka since 1948 100,000
Source: Mitchell Beazley. Where We Are Now. London, Octopus Publ. Group, 2008, p.103.
Death in Context: Current Armed Conflicts
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• Attack on Olympic games 1972
• Embassy party taken hostage in Lima
• Bombs on trains and subways in Paris, Moscow, Madrid, Manila,
London
• Nerve gas attack in Tokyo’s subways
• Truck bomb explosions in centre of London and Oklahoma
• Suicide bombers walking into restaurants, shopping malls, buses, hotel
lobbies
• Trucks full of explosives driven into embassies, synagogues and
mosques
• Jumbo jets blown from the sky; surface-to-air missiles fired at civilian
airliners
• Hijacked planes flown into skyscrapers.
Non-State Terrorism Since 1970: Types of Incidents
Source: Brian Michael Jenkins. Unconquerable Nation. Knowing Our Enemy, Strengthening Ourselves. St. Monica, RAND, 2006, p. 6. 10
• Palestinian extremists sabotage and hijack
airliners
• Urban guerrillas in Latin America regularly
kidnap foreign diplomats, demanding the
release of their imprisoned comrades, first in
Latin America, then in Europe and the Middle
East;
• First terrorist groups appeared in Europe and
Japan
• Terrorist bombings became increasingly
common
Non-State Terrorism in 1970: Types of Incidents
Source: Brian Michael Jenkins. Unconquerable Nation. Knowing Our Enemy, Strengthening Ourselves. St. Monica, RAND, 2006, p. 6. 10
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1. Attempts to acquire Weapons of Mass Destruction
2. Religious Fanaticism
3. Catastrophic Terrorism
4. Border Porosity
5. Global Communication
6. Diaspora Bridgeheads (Portable conflicts)
7. Kamikaze-like Suicide Terrorism
8. Expansion of Range of Targets (Tourists, ICRC, UN)
9. Links with Organized Crime
10. New Sources of Financing
11. Failed and weak states as de facto safe havens
12. New types of weapons (e.g. MANPADs)
Elements of the “New Terrorism”
Review, Elements of the “New Terrorism”
Brig. Gen’l Howard’s model - “8 Ways Terrorism Has Changed”
1. America is now at risk
2. Terrorists are more violent – different political aims
3. Terrorists have global reach and are transnational non-state actors
– implications for “homeland security”
4. Terrorists are better financed – zakat, charity orgs., wealthy donors
5. Terrorists are better trained in tradecraft, AW, IW
6. Terrorist cells are more difficult to penetrate (esp. AQ)
7. Terrorists have access to more lethal weapons (Soviets, bio/nukes)
8. Success and/or failure are difficult to measure – no clear outcome
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Elements of the New Terrorism
• Global in scope and strategic objectives
• Generational in scope; epic struggle, David vs. Goliath
- Bin Laden as Robin Hood
• “The number of the brothers is large . . . I do not know
everyone who is with us in this base or this
organization.”
– Bin Laden as Pied Piper., with a constant call to jihad
as the duty of every good Muslim
• Educated members as martyrs in AQ; longer planning
cycles (9/11 hijackers arriving in U.S. as early as 1994)
• Evolution into a political social movement, a global
insurgency against Western-oriented globalization
• Afghanistan and Iraq offering new locations for Jihad,
indoctrination, tactical training, network formation
Elements of the New Terrorism
• Increasing number and lethality of attacks
• Attacks are carried out not by AQ or some other
centralized group, but by affiliates and wanna-bes
• Use of children and female suicide bombers by terrorist
organizations
• Info Ops – role of technology
– From DVDs and web videos to Al Jazeera
– Availability of info on government security, CT efforts
• EW & cyber-terror – another role of technology
• Taking instruments from our daily life—the backpack, the
car, the shoe, the cell phone—and turning them into
weapons. Goal – damage the trust necessary for a
successful open society
• Shifting from small groups to motivated and resourceful
individuals (Madrid, London)
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1. Nuclear Detonation Can vary widely
2. Biological Attack 13,000 fatalities & injuries
3. Biological Disease Outbreak (Pandemic Flu) 87,0000 fatalities, 300,000
hospitalized
4. Biological Attack – Plague 2,500 fatalities;7,000 injuries
5. Chemical Attack – Blister Agent 150 fatalities; 70,000
hospitalized
6. Chemical Attack –Toxic Indust. Chemicals 350 fatalities;1,000
hospitalizations
7. Chemical Attack – Nerve Agent 6,000 fatalities; 350 injuries
8. Chem. Attack –Chlorine Tank Explosion 17,500 fatalities; 10,000 injuries
9. Radiological Attach – RDD 180 fatalities;20,000
contaminations
10. Explosive Attack IED Bombing 100 fatalities; 450
hospitalizations
11. Biological attack – Food Contamination 300 fatalities; 400
hospitalizations
What’s the Future Threat of Terrorism?
US DHS Security Planning Scenarios 2004
Part II
What of AQ & The Success of Terror
Groups in Operations & Planning?
“You have trivialized our movement by
your mundane analysis. May God have
mercy on you.”
-Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri
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Al-Qaeda Terror Attacks, Ops
Adaptation by AQ of Terror Technique
• Diffuse organization of radical “Islamic”
terrorists
– 1980s - ‘Afghan Arabs’ v. Soviet force
– 1990-1 – Gulf War; Saudi decision to allow US troops
– 1991-6 – Sudan & Al-Qaeda; Some Yemeni presence
– 1996-2002 – Afghanistan
– 2002-present – Worldwide (Pakistan/Iraq/Indonesia)
• Focus on the USA & “Islamic” governments
closely allied with the US (Egypt, Saudi
Arabia, Jordan)
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Al-Qaeda Attacks
• February 26, 1993 - bombing of the WTC
• October 3, 1993 - killing of US soldiers in Somalia
• June 25, 1996 - truck bomb at Khobar Towers
barracks in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia
• August 8, 1998 - bombing of US Embassies in
Nairobi, Kenya and Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
• October 12, 2000 - bombing of the USS Cole in the
Yemeni port of Aden
• September 11, 2001 - the WTC, and the Pentagon
• April 11, 2002 - truck bomb near an ancient Jewish
shrine Djerba, Tunisia
Al-Qaeda Attacks (cont'd)
• May 8, 2002 - suicide bombing outside Sheraton Hotel
in Karachi, Pakistan
• October 12, 2002 - nightclub bombings in Bali,
Indonesia
• November 28, 2002 - suicide bomb at the Paradise
Hotel in Mombasa, Kenya
• May 12, 2003 - suicide bombing in Riyadh, Saudi
Arabia
• May 16, 2003 - explosions in Casablanca, Morocco
• November 15, 2003 - car bombs at the HSBC HQ in
Istanbul, Turkey
• March 11, 2004 - ten bombs explode at a train station in
Madrid, Spain
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Al-Qaeda & Threat to International Society
How does AQ threaten international norms &
the ‘club of states’?
(1) Monopoly of force
- Challenges notion of sovereign state being sole
legitimate user of force
- ‘less responsible’ and ‘unaccountable’
(2) Religious caliphate v. sovereign states
- Both territorial & source of legitimacy (divine v. secular)
- State system seen as ‘immoral’ by bin-Laden (separates
Muslims)
Threat to International Society (cont'd)
(3) Ignore / Subverts International Orgs & International
Law
- Al Qaeda rejects UN as founded upon ‘Western Norms’
- Int Law is man-made law; illegitimate source compared
to God’s law
(4) Undermining public’s trust in state
- We no longer ‘feel secure’ in our nation-states
(5) Killing Civilians (bin Laden’s Feb. 1998 “Fatwah”)
‘The ruling to kill the Americans and their allies--civilians
and military--is an individual duty for every Muslim who
can do it in any country in which it is possible to do it’
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Threat to International Society (cont'd)
(5) cont'd
Two Justifications for Fatwah against civilians
• American electorate democratically supports
government policies
• Tit-for-Tat: US military makes no distinction itself
(6) Provokes most powerful member of International
Society to overreact and undermine rules
- Get hegemon to conduct un-civilized policies
i.e.: Detentions; torture; invading another sovereign
state.
Why Are These Important?
• Challenges notion of sovereign state being
the sole legitimate user of force
• International Law is man-made law;
illegitimate source compared to God’s law
• Undermine public’s trust in state: We no
longer ‘feel secure’ in our nation-states
• Get hegemon/most powerful members of
Intnat’l Soc to conduct un-society like
policies, to overreact and undermine rule
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Symbolic targets: Biblical sites; the Pope; White House;
Statue of Liberty; Commerce Icons.
Major events: Soccer championships, Apartment buildings.
Common people: American school; soccer stadia; tourist places;
“Westerners”.
Government: United Nations; FBI & CIA headquarters; Capitol.
Transport: New York Subway; airports; US navy ship.
Business: Major corporate & investing bank institutions.
Infrastructure: NY tunnels ;UK Tower bridge; pipelines; oil refinery;
nuclear power plant.
AQ Targets of Planned, Foiled & Failed
Terrorist Attacks outside Europe, 1993-2006
Symbolic targets: Eiffel Tower; church; synagogue.
Major events: G-7 meeting; world soccer cup final.
Common people: Christmas market, shopping centre; nightclub;
the funeral of a Pope.
Government: Embassies, Ministry of Defense; the Pentagon;
House of Parliament, US Supreme Court.
Transport: Airport; aircraft; trains; passenger ships; subway.
Business: Trade centers; export hubs; intermodal transport
centers.
Infrastructure: Nuclear power plant; air force base; computer
backup server centre.
European Targets of 44 Planned, Failed, &
Foiled Jihadist Terrorist Attacks, 1994-2006
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Killed Wounded
8/7 1998: Attacks on US embassies in Nairobi; Dar Es Salam 224 4,000
9/11 2001: Attacks on US targets, incl. WTC, with four airplanes 2,998 6,291
10/12: Bomb attacks in Bali on Western Tourists 202 209
11/15 2004 Two attacks in Istanbul on Jewish synagogues 25 300+
11/20 2004: Attack on British consulate in Istanbul 27 450
3/11 2004: Ten bombs explode in four trains in Madrid 192 1,800
7/7/2005: Attack on London underground and bus 52 700
11/09 2005: Amman bombing 57 96
Source: Spiegel Jahrbuch 2003. Hamburg & Muenchen, Der Spiegel Verlag/ Deutscher TaschenbuchVerlag, 2003, pp. 538-543 ;
Spiegel Spezial. Terror: der Krieg des 21. Jahrhunderts. Hamburg, Der Spiegel, 2/2004, pp. 55;Der Fischer Weltalmanach 2005.
Frankfurt a. M., Fischer Verlag, 2004, p.434.
Casualty Rates of Major Al Qaeda Related &
Inspired Terrorist Attacks
Year Incidents Killed Wounded Total Casualties
1995: 1 7 60 67
1996: 0 0 0 0
1997: 1 68 24 92
1998: 2 224 4077+ 4301+
1999: 1 1 0 1
2000: 1 17 39 56
2001: 1 2998 6291 9289
2002: 6 31 112 143
2003: 4 97 429+ 526+
2004: 5 62 206 268
2005: 5 46 89 135
2006: 7 6 37 43
2007: 1 24 50+ 74+
2008: 0 0 0 0
Totals: 35 3581 11414+ 14995+
Source: Data calculated by B. McAllister, CSTPV, University of St. Andrews
Number of Incidents & Casualties of Major Al
Qaeda Central Attacks
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Al Qaeda’s Strategic Goals as of mid-2005,
updated Fall 2008 (Dr. Ayman al-Zawahiri)
Stage 1: Expel the Americans from Iraq
Stage 2: Establish an Islamic authority or emirate,
then
develop it and support it until
it achieves the level of caliphate
Stage 3: Extend the jihad wave to secular
countries bordering Iraq
Stage 4: Extend jihad to Israel & its interests
Phase 1: (2001-2003): “The Awakening”: awake the Islamic nation from its
state of hibernation by causing United States to "act
chaotically”.
Phase 2: (20032006): “Eye-Opening”: turn Iraq into a recruiting ground
for young men eager to attack America; conduct
“electronic jihad”
Phase 3 (2007-2010): “Arising and Standing Up” Al Qaeda focus of
struggle on Syria and Turkey, also begin of confrontation
with Israel
Phase 4 (2011-2013): Al Qaeda to bring about demise of Arab
governments, continued attacks on oil industry,
electronic attacks to undermine U.S. economy, bringing
about the collapse of the dollar by promoting gold as
exchange medium
Phase 5 (2014-2016): “declaration of Islamic caliphate” leading to
change of int. balance of power by seeking new
economic allies such as China
Phase 6 (2017-2020): “total confrontation”: the now established
caliphate’s Islamic Army will achieve “definitive victory”.
Source: Lawrence Wright. “The Master Plan. For the new theorists of jihad, Al Qaeda is just the beginning.” The New Yorker ,
September 11, 2006, pp.7-8; at: http://www.newyorker.com/archive/2007/09/11/060911fa_fact3?cur..., as of 08/10/2008.
The AQ Twenty Years’ “Grand Plan”
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• Stay alive and active and show that jihad against Crusaders and Zionists
is a feasible strategy;
• Transform Al Qaeda from a militant group into a political movement;
• Portray the GWOT as a war on Islam;
• Trap the United States in “bleeding wars;”
• Overthrow the government of Pakistan;
• Crusaders and Zionist armies to leave Muslim lands defeated after the
collapse of their economies;
• Attack with weapon of mass destruction to make USA isolationist;
• Provoke war between USA and Iran and Israel and Saudi Arabia;
• Overthrow of all apostate rulers in Muslim countries;
• Recover “every stolen Islamic land from Palestine to al-Andalus and other
Islamic lands that were lost;”
• Reunite the Ummah and establishment of a Caliphate;
• Introduction of Salafism & Sharia law everywhere.
Source: Various,;incl. Bruce Reidel. The Search for Al Qaeda. Its Leadership, Ideology, and Future. Washington, D.C. Brookings Institution
Press, 2008, pp.34, 53,113, 121, 124.
Progress of AQ on the Path to a Caliphate
• Increasing Importance of Information
• The Evolution of Irregular Warfare Capabilities
• The Prominence of the Non-military Aspects of
Warfare
• The Expansion & Escalation of Conflict Beyond
the Traditional Battlefield
• Battle of Ideas Blurred With Loss of Endgame –
No Clear Ending to Conflicts
[US] National Intelligence Council. Global Trends 2025. A World Transformed. Washington, D.C. , GPO, November 2008 (NIC 2008-003), p. 71.
Thus, The Key Drivers in Armed Conflict
& Terrorism Today
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10%
7%
40%
43%
Victory of Group
Defeated by Military
Defeated by Policing
Political Solution: Group
joined political process
RAND: How Terrorist Campaigns Came to an
End (N = 268)
Source: Seth Jones. How Terrorist Groups End: Lessons for Countering Al Qa’ida. ST Monica, RAND, 2008, p.19
Part III
The AQ Evolution Since 9/11:
Adaptation, Learning, & Goals
How AQ Developed Its Organization
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GWOT Has Decisively Limited
Environmental & Strategic Context Where
al-Qaeda Operates
• Al-Qaeda remains principal focus of concern about
imported terrorist threats to the United States
• Attacks on Taliban in Afghanistan have led to loss of alQaeda
safe haven
– Scattering core of leadership to locales in Middle East
and throughout Central, South, Southeast Asia
• Unremitting campaign has led to capture/
elimination of many al-Qaeda’s critical field commanders
and functionaries
• Focus on staunching international flow of money has
denuded group’s ability to plan and execute large-scale,
complex attacks
GWOT / ‘Long War’ Successes Have Led
al-Qaeda to Reconfigure Itself
Late-1990s:
Monolithic Structure
Now:
“Movement of Movements”
• Centrally controlled
organization
• Strategic assaults
executed by inner core of
jihadist activists
• Nebulous, segmented, and
polycentric organization
• Tactically oriented strikes done
by affiliated cells (individuals)
and when opportunity arises
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From These Changes, We Can Predict Four
al-Qaeda Trends for the Future
Now:
“Movement of Movements”
• Nebulous, segmented, and
polycentric organization
• Tactically oriented strikes done by
affiliated cells (individuals) and
when opportunity arises
1. Continuing interest in hard
targets but increased focus
on soft, civilian-centric
venues (& European);
2. Ongoing emphasis on
economic attacks;
3. Continued reliance on
suicide strikes;
4. Desire to use CBRN
weapons but little ability
to execute large-scale
conventional attacks.
Future Trends
1996: Osama bin Laden issues declaration of war:
“Declaration of War Against the Americans Occupying the
Land of the Two Holy Places”
1998: Osama bin Laden issues another Fatwa—duty to kill
Americans anytime, anywhere
1998: Coordinated bombings of U.S. Embassies in Nairobi,
Kenya and Dar el Salaam, Tanzania
2000: USS Cole attacked by suicide bombers while
refueling in Yemen
2001: World Trade Center and Pentagon attacks
2002: Diplomat Laurence Foley murdered in Jordan
2005: Bombings at 3 American owned hotels in Amman,
Jordan
Al-Qaeda vs. U.S.
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Al-Qaeda (AQ):
The Organization & the
Movement
Explanations For the Rise of
Terrorism in the Name of Islam
• Religious Explanations
Islam itself
Reactions to the West
Contention that foreign and economic
policies of Western countries—
especially the West-have harmed Islam
Group Reactions
Terrorists are like youthful gang members
operating in an Islamic context.
Root Causes of Terrorism
Poverty and ignorance—coupled with globalization
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Al-Qa’idah in the Arabian Peninsula
(AQAP)
• On January 20, 2009 a message was posted on
a jihadist forum, Islamic Al-Fallujah, announcing
the formation of “a new coalition” under a “new
emir in Yemen, Abu-Basir al-Wahishi
• The “Abu-Abdullah Usama Bin Ladin Brigade” is
seen as the sole ‘umbrella network operation’ &
Al-Qa’ida representative in the Arabian
Peninsula.
• It is to be based in the Yemeni highlands—
geographical conditions which are conducive to
successful recruitment and training of jihadists.
• AQAP influences, through geographic locale,
several areas & nations.
AQAP
• The Al-Qa’idah in the Arabian Peninsula issued
a video showing the unity between the two
merged coalition members - from Yemen &
Saudi Arabia.
• The video was the first appearance of the
Yemeni leader of the group, Nasir al-Wuhayshi,
with his Saudi deputy, Abu-Sufyan al-Azadi alShihri
(aka Abu-Sayyaf al-Shiri).
• Al-Shihri had been a former Guantanamo Bay
inmate as was another Saudi member of the
leadership.
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Al-Qa’ida in Yemen
• On January 24, 2009, Abu Osama, a
member of the military council of al-Qaeda
and the commander of the Yemen
Brigades claimed that “over 300 young
Yemeni men affiliated with al-Qaeda
traveled to Iraq, Afghanistan and Somalia
for Jihad in 2008.”
Al-Qaeda “The Base”
• Al-Qaeda was formed in 1988 in western
Pakistan
• Among its founders were:
– Osama bin Ladin
– Abdullah Yusuf Azzam
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Abdullah Yusuf Azzam
Spiritual Mentor of Bin Laden
• Born in the province of Jenin in the West
Bank in 1941
• Graduated from Khadorri College, an
agricultural School, and later enrolled in
Sharia College at Damascus University
where he obtained a B.A. in Islamic Law in
1966.
• In 1967 he immigrated to Jordan where he
fought against Israel
Abdullah Yusuf Azzam
• In 1971 Azzam entered Al-Azhar
University in Cairo where he received his
Ph.D. in Principles of Islamic
Jurisprudence in 1973.
• Accepted a university position in Saudi
Arabia.
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Abdullah Yusuf Azzam
• Leaves Saudi Arabia for Islamabad,
Pakistan where he is appointed a lecturer
at the International Islamic University.
• Resigns to devote himself to jihad and
moves to Peshawar where he founds the
Bait-ul-Ansar (Mujahideen Services
Bureau)
Azzam’s Theoretical Legacy
• “Only by means of organized military force would
the Ummah (Islamic Nation) emerge victorious.”
• “Jihad and the rifle alone: no negotiations, no
conferences and no dialogues.”
• Creation of a kind of Islamic “internationale”
through the recruitment of volunteers throughout
the Muslim world to export the Islamic revolution
to the world at large.
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Intellectual Fathers of al-Qaeda
Sayyid Qutb
• Sayyid Qutb born in Mush, Egypt in 1906
• Hanged on August 29, 1966
• Major Works: Fi Zalal al-Koran (In the
Shadow of the Koran); Milestones.
Philosophic Roots of Al Qaeda
Sayyid Qutb
• Early Christianity imported from Greek philosophy the
belief in a spiritual existence completely separate from
physical life, a zone of pure spirit.
• Christianity lost touch with the physical world—its
division of the world into Caesars and God’s put the
physical world in one corner and the spiritual world in
another.
• Through revelation, the Prophet Muhammad established
the correct, nondistorted relation to human nature.
• He dictated a new strict legal code which put religion at
ease with the physical world.
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Sayyid Qutb
• The Koran instructed man to take charge of the
physical world.
• Through science Islam seized the leadership of
mankind.
• The Muslims, however, came under attack from
Crusaders, Mongols, and other enemies. And
because the Muslims proved unfaithful to
Muhammad’s revelations, they could not fend off
these attacks.
• The Muslim discoveries of science were
imported to Europe where modern science
emerged in the 16th Century and Europe
dominated the world.
Sayyid Qutb
• The European way of life brought a sense of
drift, purposelessness, and a craving for false
pleasures.
• Treacherous Muslims inflicted Christianity’s
“schizophrenia” on the world of Islam.
• The recognition of more than one authority—
God’s in the spiritual realm and man’s in the
physical realm was a step back into paganism.
• European imperialism was a continuation of the
Medieval Crusades against Islam.
• The conflict between the Western liberal
countries and the world of Islam “remains in
essence of the ideology—religion was the issue.
1 27
Sayyid Qutb
• The first step is to open people’s eyes—Muslims had to
recognize the nature of the danger.
• ISLAM HAD COME UNDER ASSAULT FROM
OUTSIDE THE MUSLIM WORLD AND ALSO FROM
INSIDE THE MUSLIM WORLD.
– THE ASSAULT FROM THE OUTSIDE WAS LED BY
CRUSADERS AND WORLD ZIONISM.
– THE ASSAULT FROM THE INSIDE WAS FROM
MUSLIMS WHO POLLUTED THE MUSLIM WORLD
WITH INCOMPATIBLE IDEAS DERIVED FROM
ELSEWHERE.
Sayyid Qutb
• THE VANGUARD OF TRUE MUSLIMS WAS GOING TO
UNDERTAKE THE RENNOVATION OF ISLAM AND OF
CIVILIZATION ALL OVER THE WORLD.
• SHARIAH WOULD BE REINSTATED AS THE LEGAL
CODE FOR ALL OF SOCIETY.
• IT IS THE ABOLITION OF MAN MADE LAWS.
• Paul Berman, “The Philosopher of Islamic Terror,” The
New York Times Magazine ( March 23, 2003 )
1 28
Bin Laden’s May 1998 Fatwa
(Published in Al-Quds al-’Arabi)
February 23, 1998
• The primary reason for the declaration of Jihad
(declared in his 1996 fatwa) against Americans
is that “for over seven years the United States
has been occupying the lands of Islam in the
holiest of places, the Arabian Peninsula,
plundering its riches, dictating to its rulers,
humiliating its people, terrorizing its neighbors,
and turning its bases in the Peninsula into a
spearhead through which to fight the
neighboring Muslim peoples.”
• “The devastation inflicted on the Iraqi people.”
• “The American role in serving the ‘Jews’ petty
state and its occupation of Jeruslaem.”
Bin Laden’s May 1998 Fatwa
(Cont’d)
• “All of these crimes and sins committed by the
Americans are a clear declaration of war on
God, his messenger, and Muslims. And ulema
have throughout Islamic history unanimously
agreed that the jihad is an individual duty if the
enemy destroys the Muslim countries.”
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Issue of the 1998 Fatwa to all
Muslims
• “The ruling to kill the Americans and their
allies—civilians and military—is an individual
duty for every Muslim who can do it in any
country in which it is possible to do it, in order to
liberate the al-Aqsa Mosque and the holy
mosque from their grip, and in order their armies
to move out of all the lands of Islam, defeated
and unable to threaten any Muslim.”
Al-Qaeda’s Intentions
• Who are the audiences that al-Qaeda
attempts to influence throught speech and
deed?
• What are the messages that al-Qaeda
expects these audiences to receive?
• What does al-Qaeda expect their
responses to be?
1 30
The Audiences
• The Islamic World
– Muslims, Islamists, Salafists, Jihadists
• The Near Enemy
– Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the Gulf States, Turkey,
India, Pakistan
• The Far Enemy
– Israel
– The United States
– Europe and the West