1
US Presidents & Demographic
Change: Is Demography Destiny?
Or…The Impact of Rewards or
Punishment in 2010
Dave McCuan
Associate Professor, Sonoma State University
and
Fulbright Scholar, Masaryk University
Department of International Relations & European Studies
Fall 2009 – Spring 2010
Today’s Lecture
• Let’s examine how the US electorate has
changed in important ways over the last 8-10
years.
• How has the US electorate (voting public)
changed in the last decade?
• This analysis has important relevance to the
midterm election prospects for President
Obama, Democrats, and Republicans as we
head to the midterm election, November 2010.
• Do Democrats face a ‘gathering storm’ of wrath
from the voters?
• What are the prospects for GOP pickups?
• What of the Tea Party movement & momentum
as candidates & parties look to 2012?
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The Context of 2010 Midterms
• Part I: How the US Electorate Has Changed & the
Leading Indicators for 2010 Midterm Vote
• Part II: The 2008 Obama Electoral Coalition
• Part III: The Dilemma of 2008 in 2010 – Turnout,
Turnout, Turnout & Demographic Change
• Part IV: Predictions & What to Watch
How Are Traditional Electoral
Divisions Changing in the U.S.?
• Traditional View of the
U.S. Electoral Map:
– Defined by:
– SES;
– Neighborhood;
– Simple media messages;
– Gender as homogenous;
– Red (DEMS) vs Blue
(REPS) with little in
between
– Party-Group alliances
• A New View of the Map:
– Differences Today by:
– Race/ethnicity;
– Region, place of residence;
– Gender w/ complications;
– Partisanship, ideology;
– Trends by the media;
beyond the self;
– Changes in region that are
“micro” and not
aggregated;
– HTM & “stealth democracy”
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Population Shifts vs. Electorate Shifts
52.6
42.8 43
49.2 48.4
45.8
52.4
38
47.9
40.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1932-64 1968-88 1992 1996 2000
Democrat Republican
The Parties at Parity, 1932 - 2000
The Elusive Majority in Presidential Politics
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52 52
54
49 49 48 49
51
49 49 49
45 44
46
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
Democrat Republican
Parity, continued
The Tie That Was in the US House
Parity, continued
The Reasons for Parity?
• A “New Economy” Driving a New Electorate
• The Political Arrangements that Shaped
Politics in the Industrial Age are Collapsing
• A New Political Order Has Not Yet Taken
Shape for the Information Era
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A New, Emerging Electorate?
PERIOD DOMINANT VOTERS
Industrial Era Working Class
----------------------------------------------------
Information Age Rising Learning Class
-----------------------------------------------------
89
81
52
9 10 13
0
7
25
0 2
8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1980 2000 2050 Projected
White Black Hispanic Asian
With Growing Diversity
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Electorate of Generational Change
In the 2000 Election…
• Less than 10 percent of the electorate were New
Deal Era voters.
• The dominant generations are the “skeptical
generations”--the Baby Boomers, GenXers and
GenYers.
40
30
33
29
24
21 20 20
36
49
47
50
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1980 1992 1996 2000
Conservatives Liberals Moderates
Political Views Are Changing
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How Do Trends of Last 10, or
even 20 Years, Affect Election
Outcomes in November 2010?
How Do We Explain National Midterm
Election Outcomes?
• Referendum on the president
• Reversion to Party ID (PID) and/or ideology
• Response to economy & job approval
• Response to other issues (war/peace, etc.)
• Action of strategic politicians
• The money & turnout races
• Reliable pattern of the 20th century save 3 elections
• What is “average” midterm presidential seat loss?
• What “variables” determine the depth of seat loss?
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Macro Conditions – 2010 Outlook
• Democrats now have an accomplishment with the passage of health care
reform, but it’s far from clear that it dramatically enhances their prospects
for the fall, as some of their officeholders and supporters argue.
Polling still shows the public dissatisfied with the country’s direction and with
President Barack Obama’s performance, and as long as the national
unemployment outlook doesn’t start to show significant improvement,
Democratic prospects for November are poor.
Democrats will have the financial advantage in the fall, and their strategists
will try to localize elections, (just as Republicans tried to do for a number of
elections). But the atmospherics remain strongly behind the GOP, and
major Republican House gains are extremely likely.
With 68 Democratic House seats at risk and only 11 Republican seats in
play – to say nothing of national and districts-level survey data showing
voters hesitant to support Democratic incumbents – it’s clear that the
battleground is almost entirely on Democratic soil. Obviously, control of the
House is at risk.
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Part II: Setting Up 2010
The Obama Electoral Coalition of
November 2008
2008 Conventional Wisdom:
An Unpredictable Election
• For first time since 1952, there was no
incumbent president or vice-president in
the race
• The Republican candidate had reputation
as a maverick frequently clashed with his
party’s leadership
• Democratic candidate was the first
African-American nominee of a major
party
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Conventional Wisdom: 2008-A Time for Change?
Key Assumption: Even though George Bush was not running,
the 2008 presidential election would be a referendum on the
performance the Bush Administration
Three Leading Indicators of
Presidential Vote
• Real GDP Growth in Second Quarter
• Incumbent President’s Approval Rating at Mid-
Year
• First Term vs. Second or Later Term for
Incumbent Party (referendum on party in White
House)
• Relevance here, with qualifications, for the
November 2010 midterm elections
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Elections & Voters in Nov 2008
• Voters in 2008
– 28% Independents
– 44% H/S Turnout (4-14% primaries)
– 55% Presidential Turnout (63.8% of eligible voters
from 2004)
– Conclusion: High Interest Election with High Turnout
in November 2008
– 33% early voting
– Party Identification (PID) changing from Partisan
Parity to Democratic Dominance
– Signal of party shifts to come? New groups mobilized
& appearing en masse in the electorate
All voters First Time
Voters
Support % %
Obama 52 62
McCain 38 28
Other/Don’t know 10 10
Source: Pew Research Center, 10-23-08
Democratic Advantage in Voter Registration
“In 13 swing states,
there are 1.49
million more
Democrats and
61,438 fewer
Republicans
registered than
there were at the
time of the 2004
general election.”
October 14, 2008
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Shifts in Party Identification (PID)
• Oct. 2008 Pew: Dem. 51% - Rep. 36%
• Avg. 2007 Pew: Dem. 50% - Rep. 36%
• Oct. 2008 Gallup: Dem. 52% - Rep. 41%
• Avg. 2007 Gallup: Dem. 51% - Rep. 40%
• The averages are the lowest numbers for the
GOP since Gallup started measuring this
statistic more than 20 years ago and Pew 18
years ago.
Popular Vote Percentages: 1964-2008
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Actual Votes: 1972-2008
Electoral College
Results 1968 - 2004
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Electoral College 2008
Electoral College Votes 1972-2008
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Part III: The Dilemma of 2008
Governing vs Electioneering
Turnout, Turnout, Turnout &
Demographic Change for Both
Major US Political Parties
Search for the Modal Voter in the
Electorate & Congress
Number
of
Voters/
Members of
Congress
(MCs)
Liberal + Blue Dogs (n = 60?) Conservative
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2008 Results in Context
• This is the first election since 1964 that the
Democrats have won the White House
and gained seats in both the House and
Senate
• Obama’s campaign was mostly positive
amassing a large number of small donors
and volunteers
• Obama’s central message was thematic.
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Demographic Shifts, Aftermath of 2008
Democratic Vote Totals, 1992-2008
Changing Composition of the US
Electorate, 1992 - 2020
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Results of 2006 + 2008 Elections:
Expanding Democratic Majorities
• More Democrats → It should be easier to
build coalitions for Democratic bills
• But Democrats are constrained by
Republican filibustering in the Senate
– Definition
– Threshold: 60 Votes
– Then, the Massachusetts Senate race (Jan.
2010) came along to change the game
MC Votes, Final HC Bill
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Part IV: Predictions & What to
Watch As We Move to Midterms
Predictions, Directions, &
Developments Over The Next 167
Days Until 02 November 2010
What of the Targets & the Marginals?
• Retirements mount for both parties
• Does GOP promote another, “Contract with America” in Sept. 2010?
• GOP has targeted 55 Democratic seats in the House.
• In the Senate, any chance of gaining 10 seats to takeover that Chamber
would require the GOP to win at least two of the following four states:
Connecticut, California, Wisconsin and Washington.
• Pay close attention to the following:
– GOP has 100+ challengers running in House races, but many are running
against each other in primaries. Two-thirds of the targeted Demo. seats have a
crowded GOP primary field.
– Rust Belt State gains for the GOP (MI, OH, PA, Gubernatorial races in these
states as well) & Dems success in FL, TX
– How well GOP does in trying to pick up Senate seats in
– Internal US Senate dynamics between Schumer (NY) & Durbin (IL)
– Role of ‘centrists’ in both Houses, post-November results
• Fundraising ratios Dems vs. GOP, esp. GOP fundraising “surges”
• Demographic & ideological “shifting” vs. motivated voters - who turns out to
vote?
• Vulnerability vs. inevitable losses
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Political Terrain for the Democratic Agenda
• Sequence / Timing: Which issues does the
President want to press? And Congress?
• Duration: How long is Obama’s “window of
opportunity” before Congress reverts to businessas-usual?
Has this already occurred?
• Constraints: How is the agenda limited by
economic, fiscal, & budgetary woes?
• Ideology: Do Democrats push a moderate or a
progressive agenda?
• Exposure: Are Dems over-exposed on seats
like the GOP was in 2006?
• Funding: $$$ helped drive turnout in 2006, 2008.
Drags on Dems:
1. Pres. Approval
2. Right/Wrong Track
3. Economic Perf.
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The 2012 Ramifications of 2010 Results
Websites for Additional Information
• www.thegreenpapers.com
• www.pollster.com
• www.gallup.com
• www.pollsandvotes.com
• www.cqpolitics.com
• www.rollcall.com
• www.thehill.com
• www.fivethirtyeight.com
• www.pewresearch.org