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What is the Role of the
"Culture War" in American
Electoral Politics ­ Is it a
Myth? Reality? Both?
MU MVZ 449
Spring 2010
Dave McCuan
Masaryk University
Red vs. Blue America 2004
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"The 49% Nation" - Michael Barone
49% Nation
49.2% 48.5% 47.8% 48.4%48.9% 48.9%
47.9%
40.0%
42.0%
44.0%
46.0%
48.0%
50.0%
52.0%
54.0%
56.0%
58.0%
60.0%
Clinton 96 House 96 House 98 Presid 00
D
R
W inning P a rty % V o te
4 9 .2
4 8 .9
4 8 .9
4 8 .4
4 8 .3
5 2 .9
5 0 .7
5 0 .4
3 0 3 5 4 0 4 5 5 0 5 5 6 0
1 9 9 6 C linto n V o te
1 9 9 8 G O P H o us e V o te
2 0 0 0 G O P H o us e V o te
2 0 0 4 G O P B us h V o te
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Is America Deeply Divided?
* "You've got 80% to 90% of the country
that look at each other like they are on
separate planets" Matthew Dowd, 2004
Bush reelection strategist; &
Schwarzenegger strategist
* "The red states get redder, the blue states
get bluer, and the political map of the US
takes on the coloration of the Civil War"
E.J. Dionne Jr., Washington Post
Party Activists More Polarized
D e le g a te D iffe re nc e ID diffre n c e
G o ve rnm ent sho uld d o m o re to
so lve na tio na l p ro b le m s 7 2 1 3
C ut taxe s to im p ro ve ec o no m y 6 7 3 5
A b o rtio n ava ila b le 6 2 3 2
A nti- te rro ism la w s re stric t c ivil
lib e rties 6 2 2 8
Im p o rta nt to w o rk w /U N 7 2 3 5
Difference between party activists and normal GOP and DEM
NYT/CBS Poll 2004
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Prevalence of Activists
in m illio ns
1 2 2
8 0
1 5 .5
1 7 .5
3 .3
1 .2
0 5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0
V o te d in 2 0 0 4
D id n 't vo te in 2 0 0 4
L is te n to R us h L im b a ug h
S a w F a hre nhe it 9 /1 1
W a tc h O 'R e illy F a c to r
M o ve -O n E m a il L is t
Confusing Positions with Choices
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Red vs. Blue America 2004
No Swing Voters
* 7 of Top 8 Kerry State have GOP
governors
* 9 states that Bush carries by 10%+ have
Democratic governors
* Are swing voters truly "independents" or
are these subsets "weak partisans"
leaning one way or the other?
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Red vs. Blue America 2004
Red vs. Blue America
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Evidence of Deep Divide?
* Red and Blue States should have big
differences on
­ policy preferences
­ Ideological positions
­ Views on abortion
­ Views on homosexuality
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Red vs. Blue America 2004
Barone/Rove Hypothesis
* Two Americas
­ "observant, tradition minded, moralistic...
repelled by Bill Clinton"
­ "unobservant, liberation-minded, relativist"
pleased with Bill Clinton"
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Evidence of Deep Divide?
* Red and Blue States should have big
differences on
­ policy preferences
­ Ideological positions
­ Views on abortion
­ Views on homosexuality
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% Agreeing 2000 ANES data
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Abortion Polarization
A b o rtio n is
a n a c t o f
m urd e r
4 6 %
D o n't fe e l
tha t w a y
4 6 %
D o n't k no w
8 %
2003 Harris/CNN/Time Poll
Abortion Cleavages / Cross-Cutting
Pressures
* Gender Gap
* North-South Divisions
* Deep divides?
* Religious & social connotations / divisions
* Regional variations
* Age and gender variations
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Further Abortion Polarization
A b o rtio n is
a n a c t o f
m urd e r
4 6 %
D o n't fe e l
tha t w a y
4 6 %
D o n't k no w
8 %
2003 Harris/CNN/Time Poll
Pew Foundation, The 2004 Political Landscape
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* Please tell me whether or not you
think it should be possible for a
pregnant woman to obtain a legal
abortion if:
1. the woman's health is serious endangered
2. she became pregnant as a result of rape
3. there is a strong change of serious defect in the baby
4. the family has low income and cannot afford any
more children
5. she is not married and does not want to marry the
man
6. she is married and does not want any more children
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Big differences between Red
and Blue States on Abortion?
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Big differences between Rs
and Ds on Abortion?
Same Sex Marriage and Voting
Behavior
Policy Toward Same Sex Couples Bush% Kerry%
* Legally Marry (25%) 22 77
* Civil Unions (35%) 52 47
* No Legal Recognition (37%) 70 29
Source: 2004 National Exit Poll
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Pew Foundation, 2004 Political Landscape:
Have electoral cleavages shifted?
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Are Differences Here a "Ditch and
Not a Chasm"
* # of Circumstances in which abortion
should be legal
­ CA 4.3
­ Deep South 3.4
* Feeling thermometer on Gays (0-100)
­ Blue state- 51
­ Red state 43
* But, Real Secular- Church differences are
consistent
Fiorina's Explanation
* Parties change ­ The Rise of Purists
* Expansion of government
* Opening of political processes
* Politics is dominated by purists who care
about policy/ideology, not just winning.
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A Causal Critique
* Timing
­ When do Fiorina's changes take place
­ When does religious differential start?
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Recall This Division
An Anti-Pluralist Critique
* Who participates?
* What do interest groups have to do to
form?
* Hyperpluralism?
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Normative Critique
* Is there anything wrong with a "choice not
an echo"?
* Is our democracy better or worse
Alternative Explanations
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