1
Summary of Course to Week
Three: A Framework for
Understanding the Environment
of Elections & How Voters Make
Decisions
MU MVZ 449
Spring 2010
Dave McCuan
Masaryk University
Agenda for This Week
* Elements of elections and campaigns;
* Environmental aspects of elections;
* Strategic aspects of elections;
* Linking "micro, ind'l level preferences" with
"mass prefs. & outcomes" while paying
attention to the "Ecological Fallacy;"
* Which came first, the "Chicken or the Egg?"
2
Predictability of Election Results
* Re-casting the issue
* To what extent do campaigns matter?
* When do campaigns matter?
* This "resolves" the quandary, a key question in
Political Science:
* "Do campaigns make a difference at all in the
outcome?
* "Do candidates matter all?
* Analyzing all elections with a focus on these.
Campaigns function within an
electoral environment that constrains
what campaigns do and what effect
those actions have on the outcome?
3
Key Factors Here on Elections &
Campaign Analysis
* Historical "importance" of the election
itself;
* Variables of importance here;
* Importance of the non-linear effects of
money;
* Role of trends, gaps, and cross-cutting
pressures & cleavages.
4
5
1992 Presidential Election
* Persian Gulf and the nomination campaign
* "It's the economy, stupid!"
* "No new taxes"
1996 Presidential Election
* 1994 Congressional election...and the
following budget debates
* Economic growth
* What was Bob Dole to do?
6
2000 Presidential Election
* The incumbent president
* Economic health 
* Contrasting campaigns
* What did POLS Elections scholars say or think?
* 2004 Election
­ Terrorism, Security
­ Same sex marriage
* 2006 Election
­ War, Scandals, What Else?
* 2008 Election
­ Issues, Partisanship, Campaign Effects (L/T versus
S/T factors), Candidate Effects & Characteristics
Environmental Factors
* Definition
* Impact
* Contrived examples? Bias here?
7
Environmental Factors
* Institutional framework
* suffrage laws
* ballot laws
* candidate selection
* party laws
* campaign finance laws
* Ex., The rise of PACs
Environmental Factors
* Political culture
* partisanship
* social and economic values
* public opinion
* Norms
* Ex., Views on equality
8
Environmental Factors
* Campaign technology
* Professionalization
* Mass media
* Paid media (radio, t.v., print, Internet)
* Ex., Advent of t.v. and cost of campaigns
Environmental Factors
* Political setting
* party competitiveness
* presidential vs. midterm election cycle
* presidential popularity
* state of the economy
* issue context
* district factors ­ incumbency, challenger
quality, & redistricting
9
Environmental Factors
* We can simplify:
* Incumbent-favoring vs. challenger favoring
* Democrat-favoring vs. Republican favoring
* Others?
Strategic Factors
* Definition
* Impact
10
Strategic Factors
* Environmental Effect on Campaigns
* strategy
Ex., Valerie Plame, weakness, temptation, move or
increase "uncertainty" factors, etc.
* success of strategy
Ex., Implications of terror attack
Strategic Factors
* Targeting
* Message
* Mode of communication
* Campaign structure & organization
* Consultants
* Press
* Outside groups