A REVIEW OF PUBLIC OPINION &
KNOWLEDGE PROCESSING ABOUT POLITICS
MU MVZ 449
Spring 2010
Dave McCuan
Sonoma State University
Public opinion is the distribution of preferences on matters of general relevance to
government within a specified population.
V.O. Key emphasizes that public opinion refers to the opinions of private citizens
government finds it prudent to heed, but Citrin (who is at UC Berkeley) prefers to
leave open the question of the influence of opinion. There also is the idea of "latent
opinion" which is a tendency to react in a particular way that gets expressed when
events or government actions occur.
Opinions have objects, so to hold an opinion its object must have some meaning to
the opinion-holder. Opinions have direction, but also differ in their intensity,
stability, informational backing, and centrality. These attributes tend to go
together empirically­i.e. intense opinions are more stable. Certain opinions are
more "pregnant," i.e. more likely to lead to action and those are the opinions
government is more likely to heed as opinions "grow."
Not everyone holds opinions on all issues, so the total population, e.g. electorateare
potential opinion-holders. In reality, the potential public is stratified by
knowledge, interest, having a definite opinion, and intensity. So, it is wise to think
of issue publics...from one issue to the next the number of people knowing, caring,
feeling intense, and so forth may vary.
Preferences are based on "valenced beliefs" or considerations. This means that you
can hold the same opinion as someone else but for different reasons.
Finally, opinion formation involves two steps­reception and acceptance. Reception
involves exposure and attention and cannot be assumed. Acceptance is impeded by
consistency bias, the preference to believe messages that are consistent with our
prior opinions, especially if those are central and intense. Sampling is added to
this model (R-A-S) by Zaller (UCLA) in his work.