MU MVZ 449
Spring 2010
Masaryk University
Department of Int'l Relations & European Studies
Dave McCuan
Elections & Mass Political Behavior
Dave McCuan
Presidential Electoral Strategies
in 2008: How to Get to 270 & Win
the White House
Why Obama Won; and What
Challenges That Has Brought
As We Examine Polling Ask:
* What do voters know about politics?
* How do they know this information?
* How do they recall (use) this information?
* What
schemas/filters/knowledge/cognition/infor
mation drive turnout and/or attention to
politics? And,
* Which therefore shapes "political views"
on issues, shapes ideology, and
determines VC?
The Nominal Voter
"Voting Calculus"
* P(V) = PB + D ­ C
* The probability of voting is equal to the
* Voter's personal benefit from electing one
candidate times the probability the vote itself will
determine the outcome,
* And the emotional benefit of performing one's
civic duty,
* Minus the transaction and opportunity costs of
the act of casting a ballot.
The THREE Key Variables, 2008:
Foreclosure (FC) Rates;
Unemployment Rates
(UE);
Median Household
Income (HHI)
Let me show you an
example of why
(NPR's `Interactive Map:
The Economy Where You
Live')
Other locations for data shown in subsequent slides:
http://data.newyorkfed.org/creditconditions/ and www.realtytrac.com
How Obama's Team Saw America
Bush: 286
Kerry: 252
How McCain's Team Saw the Race
Results, 2004: What Changed?
35 Counties = 50%+ of FC Rate
Economic Stress =
 Levels of Personal
Stress
Top 10 Worst Foreclosure States For
July, 2008 in United States
Rank State Total 1 every 1000
1 Nevada 10,060 106
2 California 72,285 182
3 Florida 45,884 186
4 Arizona 13,350 195
5 Ohio 13,457 375
6 Georgia 10,061 385
7 Michigan 11,591 389
8 Colorado 5,376 390
9 Utah 1,911 472
10 Virginia 5,745 562
FC 6-Month Trend, Mar-Aug 2008
Red ­ Conditions have worsened
Green ­ Conditions have improved
Yellow ­ No change (within 0.05%)
What is the mood of voters at this point in
the Electoral Calendar? Late Sept. 2008
What is the mood of voters at this point
in the Electoral Calendar? Mid Oct. 2008
Tracking: What Trends We Saw
Likely Results ­ EVs Are the ONLY
Thing That Matter!
How Rove Saw the Race ­ 22 Oct
Rove and Company, cont'd
Red vs. Blue America
Rove, et al. saw this as their "ace in the hole"
Depth & Breadth Measure, 2004
The Rules of the Game
* Only one thing matters:
* Getting to 270 EVs via the Electoral
College
Electoral College Vote Distribution,
largest to smallest, 2004 and 2008
Wyoming 3West Virginia 5Kentucky 8
Vermont 3Utah 5Louisiana 9Virginia 13
South Dakota 3New Mexico 5Colorado 9North Carolina 15
North Dakota 3Nevada 5Alabama 9New Jersey 15
Montana 3Nebraska 5Wisconsin 10Georgia 15
D.C. 3Mississippi 6Minnesota 10Michigan 17
Delaware 3Kansas 6Maryland 10Ohio 20
Alaska 3Arkansas 6Arizona 10Pennsylvania 21
Rhode Island 4Oregon 7Washington 11Illinois 21
New Hampshire 4Oklahoma 7Tennessee 11Florida 27
Maine 4Iowa 7Missouri 11New York 31
Idaho 4Connecticut 7Indiana 11Texas 34
Hawaii 4South Carolina 8Mass. 12California 55
Historically, The Sure Things
* REPUBLICAN
STATES:
­ AL: 9, AR: 3, AK: 6,
GA: 15, ID: 4, IN: 11,
KS: 6, KY: 8, LA: 9,
MS: 6, MT: 3, NE: 5,
NC: 15, ND: 3, OK: 7,
SC: 8, SD: 3, TX: 34,
UT: 5, VA: 13, WY: 3.
­Total: 176
* DEMOCRATIC
STATES
­ CA: 55, CT: 7, DE: 3,
DC: 3, HI: 4, IL: 21,
ME: 4, MD: 10, MA:
12, NJ: 15, NY: 31, RI:
4, VT: 3
­Total: 169
The Purple States
* The West:
­ Arizona: 10 EV, Colorado: 9 EV, Nevada: 5 EV,
­ New Mexico: 5 EV, Oregon: 7 EV, Washington: 11
EV
* The Midwest:
­ Minnesota: 10 EV, Iowa: 7 EV, Missouri: 11 EV,
Ohio: 20 EV, Pennsylvania: 21 EV, Michigan 17
EV, Wisconsin: 10 EV
* Border states:
­ Tennessee: 11 EV, West Virginia: 5 EV
* The South: Florida: 27 EV
* The North: New Hampshire: 4 EV
Example of How This Played Out in Early
2004 (# of Campaign Visits, June 2004)
Bush:
PA: 29
FL: 20
MO: 17
OH: 14
- GA: 13
- CA: 13
- TX: 13
IA: 11
Kerry:
IA: 71
NH: 68
- CA: 29
- NY: 27
FL: 23
PA: 19
IL: 14
OH: 12
Check mark indicates a purple state. Why visit the others?
The Rules of the Game, cont'd
* Electoral College
* Problems with the Electoral College?
* What if we used a straight popular vote?
Rules, continued
* Electoral College
* Campaign finance
* Swing voters vs. base voters
Demographic Breakdowns
Additional Considerations, #1
Add'l Consideration, #2