1 MU MVZ 449 Spring 2010 Masaryk University Department of Int'l Relations & European Studies Dave McCuan Elections & Electoral Behavior Dave McCuan What do we know? What do we not know? What questions are we asking? An overview of the sub-field of Campaigns, Elections & Mass Political Behavior Review of Contents of Course * Elections are a distinguishing characteristic of all democracies. * Course will focus on how national elections and sub-national elections operate in the United States. * We'll focus on the Pres election, congressional elections, and non-candidate elections. * There is, however, a BIG problem with this research: the Macro-Micro problem. 2 Key Questions This Term * Key questions * Why do we have elections? * How should we judge the importance and impact of elections on our political system? * What are the key characteristics of the American electoral system? * How do voters respond to campaigns and elections? * What are the politics of electioneering? Why the Study of Elections Matters * Elections link political equality with popular sovereignty; thus, * Elections matter as a reflection of what...? * Elections serve to "legitimize" leaders, policies, protest, and preferences. * Elections link public opinion w/ public policy * This raises several serious questions: ­ Are citizens capable of informed consent? ­ Two models prominent: opinion-sharing & role-playing 3 What We Study * Examples * Bush, Gore, and the Electoral College * Bush, Kerry, and 60,000 votes in OH * Comparative focus: USA versus Britain, France, Germany * CA Recall 2003 * CA Gubernatorial Race 2006 * 1994 ­ 2004, & - 2006 in the US Congress * Both the Primary season & the General Election of 2008 * What prospects look like for Fall 2010 What the class is, and is not... "The difference between political science and politics is like the difference between reproductive science and sex." -Thomas F. Schaller, associate professor of political science at the University of Maryland, Baltimore County 4 The Macro-Micro problem * Data, gathered from study after study in Political Science, suffers from what is called the "Ecological Fallacy" problem. * Let's illustrate with results from the 2004 election, setting up the 2006 election, with an eye towards 2010. * Why? Two successive MIDTERM election periods. * Then, we'll examine the 2008 results. The House Prior to November 2006 5 Setting Up 2006 in the Senate: The Over-Exposure Thesis Setting Up 2010 in the Senate: The Show On The Other Foot 6 Status / Trend of Races, Feb 2010 Did the Results of 2004 & 2008 Reflect a Clear Preference Amongst Voters? What is all this attention to the Red-Blue Divide? Are there other ways to envision the previous data beyond the simple, "Winner Takes All" system? 7 2008 General Election Results 2008 Gen'l Election by Pop. Size 8 2008 Gen'l Election by Counties 2008 Gen'l Election, Purple America 9 10 Is a "Purple" America a New Thing? What Determines the "Color" of the Electoral Winds?