Mandate responsiveness Lecture 4 Today •Theory of mandate responsiveness •Techniques for studying mandate responsiveness •Results 1. Theory of mandate responsiveness What is mandate responsiveness? •Citizens control politicians by choosing among different programs offered by parties which those parties then fulfill in office •Selection of types or programs •Selection of types: more honest, competent •Selection of programs •Programmatic links: parties connect to voters through their proposals of public policies that will apply to all (collective goods) •Eg, raising taxes, environmental regulations • Elements of mandate responsiveness Programm-aticness Parties present clear and distinct programs Issue/spatial voting Voters understand campaigns and choose based on them Promise Fulfillment Governing parties follow through on their promises Where can it fail? •Parties may not propose clear and distinctive programs •Voters may not be aware of these programs or cast votes based on them •Parties may not fulfill their programs while in office •Pursue own corrupt/personal interests •Institutions make it difficult •Situation changes •Parties make bad promises •Other modes of linkage Why do parties fulfill programs? •Policies are important to parties •Party activists/contributors want them to fulfill program •Parties that ignore program lose contributions, activists •Afraid of being punished for not fulfilling promises •Parties that break promises lose votes How else can parties link to citizens if not through their programs? •Charisma: sympathize with personality of candidates •Is it a bad thing? Everyone wants strong, inspirational leader •Clientelism: particularistic benefits in exchange for votes – vote buying •But how do you do it with secret ballot? •Partisan hearts and minds: socialized through family to associate with party •Competence/valence: politicians have skill and honesty to do a good job Which of these are charismatic? • http://www.psp.cz/eknih/cdrom/2006ps/eknih/2006ps/poslanci/i237.jpg http://ipravda.sk/res/2013/06/19/thumbs/miroslava-nemcova-clanok.jpg http://www.parameter.sk/sites/default/files/photos/promoted/andrejbabis.jpg http://czechpresidentialelections.files.wordpress.com/2012/02/1443598-jana-bobosikova.jpg http://www.kscm.cz/data2/dep_35/filip_vojtech_1.jpg http://img9.ceskatelevize.cz/program/porady/10206979350/foto09/okamura-1-rada_01.jpg http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2e/V.B%C3%A1rta2.jpg/200px-V.B%C3%A1rta2.jpg https://si0.twimg.com/profile_images/3147900366/6ba91aec56dd169856eef5e327b0a9f6.jpeg Or these Image result for merkel Image result for macron france Image result for theresa may Image result for hollande Image result for rutte Image result for berlusconi Proof that charisma is key? •Students asked to rate competence of faces of real candidates (Todorov et al. 2005) •Candidate whose face was viewed as more competent won 70% of the time •What are the potential problems here? •Selection effects •Parties choose more competent-looking candidates where they expect to win •More competent-looking reflects other factors like incumbency, ability to raise money • Case for mandate responsiveness •Closest to standard civic ideal •Citizens can directly set policy •Forward-looking •Functions even in between elections •Control can be nuanced – individual policy areas •Governments have mandate/justification for actions • Case against mandate responsiveness •Requires voters to be fairly well informed •Parties can only present a limited set of options •How to enforce? Need to punish parties for broken promises •Coalitions and veto points can prevent fulfillment •What if conditions change? •Limits leadership “The Myth of the Mandate” – Robert Dahl •If a party wins the election, do they have a mandate to implement their program? •Parties often claim that they have a mandate from voters •But: •How do we know what voters actually want? •What exactly are they voting for? •Do they really want party to do everything in their program? •Can public opinion tell us the answer? When does mandate responsiveness produce best policies? •Some party platforms include the best policies •Citizens are aware of platforms and choose those which will have the best consequences •Conditions do not change substantially in between elections 2. Techniques for studying mandate responsiveness Key issues •Some measure of programs that parties are proposing •Clarity, distinctiveness, substance •Determine whether they actual fulfill these programs •Are voters voting based on these programs_ How to measure programs? •Assumptions •Parties have positions •Parties are unitary – they have a single position •But can also try to measure divisions •These positions matter for policy, coalition •Techniques •Surveys – public opinion, expert •Political texts – manifestoes •Promises •Roll call votes • Surveys •Public opinion survey •Ask voters where parties are located on 7 point scale (left/right, pro-EU/anti-EU, high taxes-spending/low taxes-spending) •Or ask them them about their own beliefs and which party they support •Grandmother test: what would your grandmother say? •Expert survey (eg, political scientists) •Experts knowledgable and unbiased •Takes into account lots of information: programs, voting • • • Political texts •Comparative Manifesto Project •56 (or more categories) •Every sentence placed into 1 or more categories •% of sentences determines party’s position •Problems •Good for historical research •Do manifestoes matter? •Does # of sentences = priority? •Not a standardized document •Hard to get left-right measure • Categories for coding •Anti-imperialism •Military – positive •Military – negative •Peace •Internationalism – positive •Internationalism – negative • •EU – positive •EU – negative •Democracy •Constitutionalism – positive •Constitutionalism – negative •Federalism •… Political texts 2 •Automated coding of relative word frequencies •One US study finds 2 dimensions •Left-right: welfare, peace versus market, war •Style: folksy, simple words versus elevated rhetoric •Maybe do this with New Year’s speeches in CZ? • http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/monkey-cage/files/2014/01/sotu_ideology.png Most common words of Democrats and Republicans in US Congress •Rosa Parks •Wildlife refuge •Republican Party •War in Iraq •Middle class •Trade deficit •Poor people •Stem cell •Death tax •War on terror •Tax relief •Illegal immigration •Saddam Hussein •Increase taxes Election promises •Do parties fulfill their election promises? •Find concrete promises in manifesto •Hardness: “We will” or “We promise” versus “We support” or “We are for” •Specificity: Definite outcome (raise minimum wage) versus General principle (help the poor) •Policy (lower taxes) versus Outcomes (increase economic growth) Roll call analysis •How similar are voting records of different MPs and party groups •Real and consequential actions •But also strategic: quid pro quo •Usually low number of dimensions •Simple left-right divisions •Each vote is yea/nay and high discipline • Roll call history of the US http://voteview.com/images/House_means_2013.png Roll call history of the UN Graph 3. Results Policy Switches in Latin America •Carlos Menem (Argentina) and Alberto Fujimori (Peru) campaign against neo-liberal reforms •Immediately after elections they introduce massive neo-liberal reforms – privatization, spending cuts, deregulation, etc. •Common in Latin America: 12 of 44 presidents do the same •Always in same direction: anti-reform campaign => reform policy •Is it a failure of democracy? Carlos_Menem_(Retrato_Oficial_1989).jpg (300×450) fuji.jpg (298×477) How to explain these switches? • •Politicians can’t win with neo-liberal program (cf., Vargas Llosa) •But know that anti-reform policies will lead to economic disaster •Therefore lie in campaign and then switch when in office •Evidence •Switch immediately after elections •Presidents are punished for switching •But reform leads to more growth •Presidents also rewarded for growth •Prospective mandates fail, but retrospective accountability works • mario-vargas-llosa-and-gabriel-garcia-marquez.jpg (470×338) What is the problem? •Politicians do try to “represent” •Representation = do what is best for society •Responsiveness = do what people want •Voters oppose neo-liberal reform, uninformed about necessity •Are they stupid? •Should politicians teach them? b542.jpg (428×323) Switches in post-communist Europe •Fewer clear cases of switches •Hungarian Socialists in 1994 & Polish SLD in 1993? •Gyurcsany 2006: “I had to pretend for 18 months that we were governing. Instead we lied morning, noon, and night” •Any changes in opposite direction: reformist programs => anti-reformist policy? •What about Czech governments? •Klaus 1992: Reformist program => •Zeman 1998: Anti-reformist program => •CSSD 2002: •ODS 2006: Reformist program => •ODS 2010: •CSSD 2013: news-graphics-2006-_626640a.jpg (180×256) What is different in postcommunist Europe? •Citizens accept necessity of neo-liberal reform •Parties can win with reformist program and then carry out reform •Why? •Failure of communism •Transition associated with national freedom (in Latin America, reform associated with dictatorship) •European Union as prize • More general tests of mandate conception •Typical design: regression analysis of cross-national time-series data •Partisanship and macroeconomics (growth, inflation, unemployment) •Manifesto data (emphasis on policy area) and government spending on that area •Results: •Left-wing governments do seem to devote more attention to poor •Governments that emphasize a particular policy area do spend more •But •Many other influences on economy besides government •Government has to respond to previous government Election promises in advanced democracies •High levels of promise fulfillment •Typically over 50% for governing parties •Often 70-80% •One review of 21 studies finds average of 67% •Is this a surprise? •Higher for parties with control over government •Strong economy helps •Status quo promise easier to fulfill than promise of change • Czech anecdotes •Klaus in 1996: Average incomes will reach 20,000 Kcs by 2000 •Zeman in 2002: Promises infrastructure projects at each campaign stop equal to 1/5 of budget •Sobotka in 2002: “The promises were not put in a realistic economic framework… We’d be fools to insist on what isn’t economically feasible and push the country into a bigger deficit just to fulfill our promises” •Skromach in 2002: “We got 30% of the vote in the last elections and we certainly fulfilled that much of our program.” •CSSD in 2006 •Changes webpage from 2002 to eliminate promises •Tries to pass legislation at end of term to improve fulfillment Skromach again •Taková malá dovolená bez mobilu, s kafíčkem, nafukovacím bazénkem a pár dobrými lidmi. Trochu mě zarazila debata v rádiu, že je snad nějaké divné nosit v sandálech ponožky, Prý snad nějaká národní podivnost. No nevím, ale bez ponožek si sandále neumím představit. A co Vy? Hezký večer. http://www.muzivcesku.cz/wp-content/uploads/2013/07/1001531_509305449138288_862526130_n-300x191.jpg Promise fulfillment in the Czech Republic (preliminary results) 1992 1998 2002 ODS 65% (26) 24% (74) 44% (32) CSSD 14% (7) 35% (107) 58% (40) KSCM 50% (6) 12% (115) 27% (97) KDU/CSL 41% (63) 32% (119) ODA 45% (40) US 36% (135) Koalice (KDU + US) 25% (113) Total (all parties) 46% (142) 28% (551) 32% (282) What sort of promises should parties make? •George H.W. Bush in 1988: “Read my lips: No new taxes” •Later he raises taxes and loses in 1992 to Bill Clinton •What should he have done? •What was the problem? A bad promise or bad fulfillment? •What should politicians promise? •Specific policies or outcomes? •Avoid populism? Avoid vagueness? •What should they do when conditions change? •Need to explain why they are changing? •In Latin America, they blame former government for misinformation figure01.jpg (504×765) What do voters think of promises? •Widespread belief that politicians never fulfill their promises •Even in Sweden 2/3 of citizens think that parties usually break their promises •Are you surprised that governing parties usually fulfill promises? •Why do voters not trust promises? •Psychological biases: we remember promises that were broken? •We don’t trust politicians? Summing up Tradeoffs •Can we have everything? •How should voters vote? •Sanction governments for past behavior (economic accountability) •Choose best options for future (mandate responsiveness)? •How should politicians behave? •Listen to public (policy responsiveness) •Follow through on promises and manifesto (mandate)? •Try to produce the best outcomes (substantive representation) • But maybe some complementarities •Voters can punish politicians for not fulfilling promises or not listening to public •Electoral accountability helps mandates and responsiveness •If promises reasonable and public opinion stable, then mandates and policy responsiveness go together • Do we want the people to rule? •Citizens uninformed or misinformed •Later: think about the quality of citizens •But politicians greedy and self-interested •If not the people, then who? •Technocrats – Economists? Judges? Bureaucrats? •Who do you fear more: state or market?