Faculty of Social Studies, Masaryk University

                              BSS 186/486 – NATO & European Security

                                Dr. Schuyler Foerster – Spring 2019

                                      NATO Crisis Simulation

                                     Morning Situation Report

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Reuters.

Blaming “outside agitators” for riots in Crimea, the Kremlin has airlifted additional security
forces into Crimea to put down protests and has threatened to declare martial law in the region.
In addition, a battalion of Russian infantry—with armored personnel carriers—has begun to move
through Mariupol in eastern Ukraine.  NATO sources indicate that the forces appear to be poised to
move down the coast in an effort to secure a land bridge to Crimea.

Kiev has protested the Russian movements as a violation of the OSCE Minsk Accords and has warned
that further Russian incursion into Ukrainian territory would be met with “all appropriate force.”
The Ukrainian Ambassador to NATO has formally notified the Secretary General that Ukraine, as a
NATO Partner, is seeking consultation within NATO under the NATO-Ukraine Charter.

Baltic Times.

Macintosh HD:Users:schuylerfoerster:Downloads:Kaliningrad_map.PNG The Lithuanian government has
issued a stern protest to Moscow, warning that continued “nationalist” rhetoric out of Kaliningrad
calling for a “land-bridge” with Russia “does not contribute in any way to the stability of an
already-fragile security situation and threatens to enflame public opinion against Russia” within
his own country.

In both Tallinn and Riga over the weekend, more protests erupted by Russian communities who
continue to be denied citizenship because of their inability to pass language tests.  The protests
were peaceful, but organizers warned that they would come back if the government did not respond to
their demands.  Russian language media warned residents that “fascist activists” might hijack the
protests and turn them violent.  Local security forces said they would continue to respect
non-violent protest but would take “necessary measures” to protect the population from violent
outbreaks.

Estonia Post Times

This morning, in Tartu, Estonia, a group called the "Estonian Russian Alliance" claims that they
have occupied Tartu City Hall and called upon Russia to support their cause in restoring the Baltic
borders of the Soviet Union.  There are no known records of the existence of this group.  Crowds of
ethnic Russians surrounded the building and kept Estonian Homeland security forces at bay.

This follows anti-Russian protests last night in Tartu, after which some of Tartu’s 15% ethnic
Russian population launched a counter-demonstration, claiming persecution.

A Kremlin press spokesman repeated Russia’s determination to protect the rights of Russian
minorities living in neighboring countries.

Kiev Times

The Ukrainian Interior Ministry announced today that they had captured four Russian Spetsnaz
soldiers 100 km southwest of Mariupol.

Unless Russia admitted to its aggression eastern Ukraine, the Ministry said they would be tried as
criminals instead of being treated as prisoners of war.

The Kremlin responded that this would be viewed as a “severe provocation” in what was already a
volatile relationship.

The Warsaw Voice

Poland’s Defense Ministry announced that Polish Air Force F-16’s intercepted a Russian fighter in
Polish airspace and escorted it back to Russian airspace in Kaliningrad without incident.  The
Russian Ministry of Defense had no comment.

Associated Press.

A spokesman for the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that the Russian military has redeployed
a battery of its new 9M729 ground-launched cruise missiles (GLCM) to a position approximately 500
miles east of the Estonian/Latvian border.  The Ministry claims this was part of pre-planned
deployment in conjunction with ongoing exercises, but the spokesman also cautioned that the system
could be used in response to any NATO “provocations.”  The spokesman would neither confirm nor deny
whether the missile had conventional or nuclear warheads available with the deployment.

Moscow Times.

The Kremlin confirmed this morning that Russian President Vladimir Putin had tweeted over the
weekend, complaining that the West was once again “interfering in the internal affairs” of
sovereign states on Russia’s border, where Russia has “vital” national security interests.  Putin
called upon President Trump to meet with him and find ways for Russia and the United States to
“manage” growing crises in Europe.

CNN.

President Trump tweeted this morning that he did not understand why the United States would want to
defend small countries so far away, especially since they were not paying their “fair share” of
what he claimed NATO owes the U.S.

The U.S. State Department and Defense Department both issued statements affirming continued U.S.
support for NATO and America’s commitments under the NATO Treaty.

In the U.S. Senate, Senator Lindsay Graham was reported to be preparing a draft Senate resolution
reaffirming U.S. support for NATO and its Article 5 commitments.


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