Why the UK voted Leave Dr Monika Brusenbauch Meislová EVSn5065/EVS465: Brexit: Politics, Policies and Processes 31 March 2020 [USEMAP] Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? Cameron’s negotiations failed to convince three important groups in particular: ̶Conservative parliamentary party (138 out of 330 backed Leave) ̶Conservative-backing media ̶Public and Conservative voters ̶Renegotiation = time wasted? ̶Exposed tensions within the Remain camp ̶The Leave campaign had stronger messages ̶Cameron not a leading asset for Remain (unlike 2011 AV referendum) ̶2016: damaged reputation (austerity, govt cuts, Panama papers affair) [USEMAP] Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? ̶Lib Dem electorally tarnished ̶Labour/Corbyn: lack of enthusiasm, poor portrayal in the press ̶ ̶ ̶Leave campaign: mix of messengers at the UK level ̶Boris Johnson: strong, charismatic figurehead ̶Backing of other members of the Cabinet (govt in waiting) [USEMAP] Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? The Leave campaign better organised and run ̶Leave campaign: ̶ ̶more professional ̶ ̶long history of Eurosceptic groups ̶ ̶advantage of the many factions (different messages targeted at different groups of voters) ̶ ̶not without tensions, of course (Cummings versus Farage) ̶ ̶ruthless campaigning [USEMAP] Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? Economic arguments proved insufficient to win the referendum ̶Remain: too much focus on economic costs (reliability of the figures questioned) ̶ ̶ ̶Business divided (contrast with 1975) ̶ ̶ ̶“That’s your bloody GDP. Not ours“. [USEMAP] Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? Remain had no answer to arguments about immigration ̶Immigration took over economy as a number-one concern. ̶ ̶Remain hobbled by Cameron’s 2010 commitment to bring down net immigration to under 100,000 a year (UK never came close to achieving this). ̶ ̶ ̶Problems of Labour with focusing on immigration. [USEMAP] Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? The media campaign was won by Leave ̶British printed press traditionally Eurosceptic. ̶ ̶ ̶Cameron surprised by the campaigning might of British Right-leaning press. ̶ ̶ ̶Broadcast media more impartial (by law) ̶ ̶ ̶Online and social media dominated by Leave. ̶ ̶ ̶Take back control: great slogan [USEMAP] [USEMAP] Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? The EU was difficult to sell ̶2016 EU = faced with a series of crises (Eurozone, migration, Russia, Euroscepticism) ̶ ̶Not helped by the UK’s low level of knowledge about the EU (ill-prepared to assess the claims made by either side) ̶ ̶ ̶Cameron & Co: reaping what they had sown (inconsistency appeared patronising) ̶ ̶ ̶Intervention by Obama [USEMAP] Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? The electoral franchise benefited Leave ̶16- and 17-year olds, EU nationals residents in the UK and British citizens who had lived abroad for longer than 15 years unable to vote ̶ ̶ ̶Inaccurate polling [USEMAP] Why did the UK vote to leave the EU? Campaign connected to matters not directly about EU-UK relations ̶Diverse matters ̶Anti-politics and anti-austerity ̶Ill-defined targets such as distant and elitist London ̶ ̶Challenges of globalisation [USEMAP] [USEMAP]