01 The theory: „all what is said, is said by somebody" a>. The context and meaning
Lubomir Kostron 2020
(1) Peter Senge
The course structure
1. Introduction
2. Perception, judgment (and behavioral activities); the story of Egon Brunswik
3. a) social judgment theory, b) the nature of information
4. A model of personalisty - what is missing?
5. The theory o tasks, situations and the environment/ecology
6. The role of emotions and group support in ill defined problems solution
7. System dynamics - learning to „see" processes
8. The decision-making under uncertainly
9. Interpersonal cognitive conflict solution (workshop dedicated to POLICY)
10. The puzzle of consciousness.
11. The ultimate knowledge - the art of asking the smart questions
Students are expected to turn in a paper on one of the issues, listed above. For more detailes see the sylabus.
Simple definition of psychology
1: the science or study of the mind and behavior 2 : the way a person or group thinks
Full Definition of psychology - plural psychologies
1: the science of mind and behavior
2 a : the mental or behavioral characteristics of an individual or group
b : the study of mind and behavior in relation to a particular field of knowledge or activity
3 : a theory or system of psychology <Freudian psychology> <the psychology of Jung>
Source: Merriam-Webster's Learner's Dictionary
l.The Introduction:
* The history of psychology and its position within the system of science,
* Psychological states and processes,
* The problem of cosciousness (what are we aware of and is subconscious, subliminal?)
* The life story of psychologist, Egon Edler Brunswik of Korompa (Krompachy)
2. The Perception: the story of Egon Brunswik
18.3.1903 - 7.7.1955
4
Egon's parents.
Egon Brunswik's father and his brothers. Austro-Hungarian nobility i Korompa (Krompachy), central Slovakia
The professional career of Egon Brunswik started with experiments on perception („the perception constancy") in Psychological Institute of Karl Buhler, Vienna. Brunswiks PhD disertation: second chair on the committee was Moritz Schlick.
The philosophy that came to dominate research in psychology in the first half of the 20th century was called logical positivism. ... The basic idea of logical positivism is that all knowledge is based on empirical observation, assisted by the rigorous use of logic and mathematics.
Logical positivism, also called logical empiricism, a philosophical movement that arose in Vienna in the 1920s and was characterized by the view that scientific knowledge is the only kind of factual knowledge and that all traditional metaphysical doctrines are to be rejected as meaningless.
The program of logical positivism gave inspiration to the unity of science movement. The movement carried the belief that all sciences, including the social sciences and the humanities, ought to share some common language if these disciplines were to be considered genuine sciences (Wissenschafteh).
Overview of the members of the Vienna Circle
Inner Circle: Gustav Bergmann, Rudolf Carnap, Herbert Feigl, Philipp Frank, Kurt Gödel, Hans Hahn, Olga Hahn-Neurath, Béla Juhos, Felix Kaufmann, Victor Kraft, Karl Menger, Richard von Mises, Otto Neurath, Rose Rand, Josef Schächter, Moritz Schlick, Friedrich Waismann, Edgar Zilsel.
Periphery: Alfred Jules Aver, Egon Brunswik, Karl Bühler, Josef Frank, Else Frenkel-Brunswik, Heinrich Gomperz, Carl Gustav Hempel, Eino Kaila, Hans Kelsen, Charles W. Morris, Arne Naess, Karl Raimund Popper, Willard Van Orman Quine, Frank P. Ramsey, Hans Reichenbach, Kurt Reidemeister, Alfred Tarski, Olga Tausskv-Todd, Ludwig Wittgenstein.
Karl Popper In 1928, he earned a doctorate in psychology, under the supervision of Karl Bühler. His dissertation was titled On Questions of Method in the Psychology of ThinkingSln a book „The Logic of Scientific Discovery'' he criticised psvchologism, naturalism, inductivism, and logical positivism, and put forth his theory of potential falsifiability as the criterion demarcating science from non-science.
The Unity of Science Movement
Tree of Knowledge
Gregg Henriques' Tree of Knowledge System
Jean Piaqet's 1918 work Recherche: ...the unity of science can be considered in terms of a circle of the sciences, where logic is the foundation for mathematics, which is the foundation for mechanics and physics, and physics is the foundation for chemistry, which is the foundation for biology, which is the foundation for sociology, the moral sciences, psychology, and the theory of knowledge, and the theory of knowledge is based on logics
Science is a human endeavor, a part of human culture. It is unified in the sense that it is understood as a single endeavor, and there are no scientists studying alternative realities. To the extent that they do, however, one could argue that they are not unified. It is the perception of a single reality that results in a unity of science.
The unity of science thesis is most famously clarified and tentatively argued for by Ludwiq von Bertalanffy's General System Theory, Paul Oppenheim and Hilary Putnam. It is most famously argued against by Jerry Fodor, John Dupre and Paul Feyerabend.
International encyclopedia of unified science
The IEUS was an output of the Vienna Circle to address the "growing concern throughout the world for the logic, the history, and the sociology of science...„
Only the first section Foundations of the Unity of Science (FUS) was published; it contains two volumes for a total of nineteen monographs published from 1938 to 1969.
Preliminary conference in Prague in 1934, the First International Congress for the Unity of Science was held at the Sorbonne, Paris, 16-21 September 1935.
The Third International Congress for the Unity of Science, which was devoted exclusively to the IEUS, was held in Paris 29-31 July 1937.
The Conceptual Framework of Psychology (FUS 1-10) Egon Brunswik
Much later, in the U.S., he introduced the concept of probability into psychological research; also, he was inspired by the then new theory of information.
He proposed his original theory of psychology : probabilistic functionalism. He introduced several new concepts: ecological validity, conceptual isomorphism; promoted the idiographic approach to the research design (first understanding the nature of a problem studied, then may follow attempts to study causal relations, nomothetic approach).
Also, he offered an original research methodology :
representative design of experiments", as contrasted to the traditional
systematic design of experiments" (taken over from natural sciences);
He is a forerunner of ^Ecological psychology"
Psychoanalytic psychologist, Else Frenkel-Brunswik, Egon's colleague and later his wife.
18.8.1908-31.3.1958 Lemberg (Lvov), Berkeley
La figura di Yastrow commentatada L. Wittgenstein, da cui Else Frenkel-Brunswik, coautrice della ricercadi T.W. Adorno et al. (1950), La personalita autoritaria, costrui un filmatoa cartonianimati perstudiareTintolleranzadellambiguitáe la rigidita percettiva che ostacolano la ristrutturazione cognitiva
Else was involved into the intolerance of ambiguity research, the F scale
i
1950
After obtaining a position at the University of a Berkeley in California (U.S.A), Brunswik, (who was raised in a rather philosophical tradition of a logical positivism) was challanged with totally different approach to psychology: a pragmatical behaviorism
A transition cultural shock - from Vienna to Amerika: Brunswik's notes in the textbook of Woodworth, Schlosberg's ^Experimental Psychology".
which can be built into a science. "Almost necessarily," we say; hopeful beginnings in the study of the young child presage a day when there will O^kti.AfJ ke true experimentation in this field.
>jjf\      An p?rpprimenter is said tq^control the conditions in which an event oc-Mii^lwD j curs.  He has several advantages over an" observer who simply follows ®tj&BL the course of events without exercising any control.
tl^^ixt* ^e experimenter makes-the event happen at a certain time and
place and so is fully prepared to make an accurate observation. &ftfcj-gtfa        2. Controlled conditions being known conditions, the experimenter can set up his experiment a second time and repeat, the observation; jjtfaad, what is very important in view of the social .nature of scientific 4y*»3a investigation, he can .report his conditions so that another experimenter l^can duplicate them and check the data. far f 3. The experimenter can systematically varyjhe conditions and note
• -^C^ifc*    the concomitant variation in the results.  If he follows the old standard
^rule of one yariable;;"helioldsLall the conditions constantexcept for one. iactor which is hi^experimental factor" or his "independent variable." The observed effect, is the '^dependent variable" which in a psychological experiment is some, characteristic of behavior or reported experience. In an experiment ou the effect of noise on TP^fal work, noise is the independent variable controlled by the experimenter, and the dependent variable may be speed or accuracy of work or the subject's report of his feelings. „
As regards the jule_of one variable, it applies only to the ind_ependent variable, for there is nonobjection to observing a variety of effects of the" j?ne experimenta^factor. With careful planning two or three independent { variables can sometimes be handled in a single experiment with economy
/K***-^<^^^T-of effort and with some chance of "disco verTng'the in t eractiprTcT "the two" _or jnore factors (Fisher, 1936).
JLa    '   , i
A cultural shock in Amerika: Brunswik's comments in the textbook of Woodworth, Schlosberg ^Experimental Psychology".
a.
'Mb'M*> ». r»"*^ »«**" - *•*«-*- tv .
INTRODUCTION ' 3
Whether one or more independent variables are used, it remains essential that all other conditions be constant.   Otherwise you .cannot, f connect the effect observed with any definite cause.   The psychologist • must expect to encounter difficulties in meeting this requirement of scientific work.  He has to contend with differences between individuals, „ inequalities in thejnaterialsjised (problems to be solved, tor example;, and changes due to motivation, practice ancTfatigue. He can often over-gome_these dimculties by some system of compensatingjactors.  Suppose (( the efficiency of work under two conditions, noise and quiet, or, in gen-eraL_A and E, is to be compared.  If the subjects work^rstlinder con-dition A and then under condition B, B will probably show better performance because of the practice effect. We may meet this difficulty in several ways:. U)^g^'e_tiie_s^bie^^^bua^nt preliminary practice: ., (2) use the double order of conditions, ABBA; (3) use two groups of *>ft'-'-subjects, one in the order AB and one in the order BA, and combine the 'Cr3^'\^rtt results irom the two groups.  The exp^nmeht rnust'Ee carefully planned in advance, always with an eye to.some defensible way of handling the data.
To be distinguished from the experimental method, and standing on^ (~Q~^) a par with it in value, rather than above or below, is the comparative_and__ ~/s ^correlational method.  It takes its start from individual differences. By   ]| j ube ui' ^LuLable tests it measures the individuals m a sample oFsome population, distributes these measures and finds their average, scatter, 1 etc.   Measuring two or more characteristics of the same individuals_it_ computes the correlation "of these characteristics and goes on to factor analysis. This-meYhöd~döes "not introduce an "experimental factor";" it has no "independent variable" but treats aH the measured variables alike.~"Tt does not directly study cause and effect.  The experimentalist's    \\ : mdependent variable is antecedent to his dependent variable; one is cause (or part of the cause) and the other effect.   The correlationist . studies the interrelation of cüfferent jifiects^ >\
Everything from the beginning again: how does it fit together?
-Whu is knowledge?
-Essences
-Causes
l7ihCcnl.
Hoboes M J. Locke
D. Hume (Causality)
Empiric ism
Classical Antiquity Aristotle -^^^ Plato
4
lSlhCcnlury Hartley (Auocialicmiim)
rhcnorocnology.
19th » beginniog of 20ih Century Experiment Method
Ralmnjlism
lltuuftl-
I KiM -» Sul>jc<bwi)
O. H«gfU-> Critilka) Theory
Through Philosophy of Science
Ft. Uortt P. St cord -*E McMulUn
E3
W. Wundi Experimental Psvch
Suuclujalum
C. Jung A. Adler K. Homey E. ErikjOD
K. U - II
Qinirnl/CnunsclinB.
S«lf.
TTKcliii
T. A. T. Himi
W. Michel. G. Allport, H. Mumy. G. Murphy
EE
/ iguiv (>0-1    I Inwaid'i cognitive mjp ol the history ot psychology
Behavioral
J. Wolpe A. Luinij A Bariduii H. Eyienck A. Kudin . Maheney
Pimm
T. Meilum N Gulanick
Brunswik had to rethink psychology anew
EXPLICATIO
TABLE 17.4 Scientific background and cross-disciplinary relations of psychology with special emphasis on general systematic isomorphisms and on methodology
SYSTEMATIC THEORIZING
DESCRIPTIVE APPROACH
Bacon, Hume, Mill, Mach
STATISTICAL APPROACH
Nomothetic or axiomatic
Astronomy
Kepler 1609 Physics
Galilei, Newton 1687
"Models-
Sciences
Heimholt! 1847 (Cons, of energy)
Maxwell 1873
Geometry Hilbert 1899
Biology
Darwin 1859 Physiology
Bernard 1865
Pavlov 1903 (Conditioning)
PSYCHOLOGY
Experimental-Normative
Introspective Behavioral Fechner 1860 (Sensation)
Ebbinghaus 1885 (Association)
"-v
Gestalt psychol. Wertheimer 1912
Differential \ [Anatomy Gall 1810 (Claims in y "phrenology")]
Gallon 1869 (Heredity)
Formal
Mathematics Gauss 1809 (Law of error)
Biophysics
Rashevsky 1938 Biology _
Woodger 1939 Physics
Prigogme 1946
(Open system
thermodyn )
Cannon 1932 (Homeostasis)
Thorndike 1898 (Animal experiments)
Class, behaviorism Watson 1913 \
Molar or functional behaviorism Tolman 1932
Postulational behaviorism Hull 1943
Biometrics Pearson 1896 (Correlation)
Binet 1903
Spearman 1904 (Factor analysis)
Agriculture Fisher 1925 (Factorial design)
Thurstone 1934
Econometrics Frisch 1938. Haavelmo ^   (Probabilism, cf also Meteorology)
Biology
Bertalantry 1950 (Equifinallty)
[ / 947 (Representative design)]
Engineering Wiener 1949 (Time series) Shannon 1949 (Communication)
PURE INTROSPECTIONISM:
Meditative philosophy
(From  17th century)
Sensationism
(I8th and 19th centuries)
Areas (regions): Geographic (ecological) environment
Stimuli
<9. \
4us
Distal - —
_ „__Proximal---
. - - Peripheral----,
Central
Organism
Overt responses
OBJECTIVE APPROACH:
Micro -phy si ologism
(First half of 19th century)
Intentionalism
(Lost quarter of  19th century)
Classical behaviorism
(First  quorter of 20th century)
Symbols (for all figures):
Observed Introspective    f Objective
Units, variables, s—\
processes {_) -
Relationships .------_____
fUnivoco/ reI ) ~--~^
---*%%%&>lnfarred processes ond hypothe-
~~l-~?ftico/ univocol relationships
]  Tacit presuppositions
1 -
Empty organism" approach ■
Objective functional psychology
(Second quarter of   20th century)
t F,g'J." ^ J gC.S °f introsPect,ve and objective psychology. Reprinted from The Conceptual Framework of Psychology 1952 bv E Brunswik bv permission of the University of Chicago Press. Y       Brunsvxlk by
TABLE 17.1 The emergence of physiological psychology from physiology
A. INTERNAL PROCESS TRACING
B. PERIPHERAL ARC
C. CENTRAL-DISTAL APPROACH
Specific nerve energies Bell, Müller 1834
'Rate of nervous impulse Müller, Helmholtz 1850
Reaction time Bessel 1822 Wundt, Cattell 1893
*Sensory-motor approach Watson 1913, Skinner
*Brain-and-achievement Lashley 1929, Halstead
Hypothetical brain models Köhler 1920, McCulloch
The Brunswik s „lens moder of a perception
Working together with Edward C.Tolman, they realized, that the Jens model", may be mirror like reversed and the output side may be added. So, thus the lens contains input with impulses, stimulating receptors, and also output, which signifies the choice of means of activities, actual behavior.
The choice of action, behavior: the extended lens model offered a common base for the co-operation with Edward C.Tolman
object
Behavior^
of we$
response
of m&tov
DM
1856 -1959
The organism and the environment (ecology) :
two equally important systems in a mutual interaction
CENTRAL
RESPONSE
PROXIMAL
Distal S-R laws
DISTAL R
environment
www.brunswik.org
The organism and the causal texture of the environment [1935] Edward C. Tolman and Egon Brunswik
Psychology as a science of objective relations [1937] Egon Brunswik
Representative design and probabilistic theory in a functional psychology [1955] and In defense of probabilistic functionalism: A reply [1955] Egon Brunswik
The Conceptual Framework of Psychology [1952] Egon Brunswik
"Ratiomorphic" models of perception and thinking [1955] Egon Brunswik
Historical and thematic relations of psychology to other sciences [1956] Egon Brunswik
Perception and the representative design of psychological experiments [1956] Egon Brunswik
3 a: Judgment
His student, Kenneth R. Hammond University of Colorado at Boulder), extended the focus of perception research on subsequent ^reasoning how do we arrive at judgments?
K.R.H: (1955) "Probabilistic Functionalism and the Clinical Method
K.R.H., 1917 - 2015
He with his colleagues, created a number
of lens model versions; L.R. Tucker came
up with regression equation, which makes possible to quantify
the lens model, decompose the relations into linear and
nonlinear components and to use it for a research in various
settings.
The lens model equation /Hursch, Hammond, and Hursch, 1964; Tucker. 19641 expresses the correlation between two variables as the sum of a linear and a nonlinear component. The linear component reflects that part of the correlation which can be explained by the linear relation between the variables and a set of mediating variables, and the nonlinear component reflects the part of the correlation which cannot be accounted for by the linear component.
SINGLE-SYSTEM CASE "POLICY CAPTURING" RELATIVE IMPORTANCE
DOUBLE SYSTEM CASE
ACHIEVEMENT (ra)
CUES (Xj)
BRUNSWIKS LENS MODEL
DOUBLE SYSTEM CASE
Hierarchical model
Logic of Understanding'
Concepts of Storm Generation
B
Weather Events
Objective Data/cues
Logic of Prediction1
D
Perception of Data/cues
Concepts
Forecast
O O
o
o a
o
a
Partition Between Forecaster and World
TRIPLE SYSTEM CASE
JUDGMENTS
TRIPLE SYSTEM CASE INTERPERSONAL LEARNING, INTERPERSONAL CONFLICT
s2 cue dependencies
The POLICY program calculates the weights (the degree of utilization), which judges ascribe to individual cues
CUES
TOTAL ACHIEVEMENT L90
LINEAR  ACHIEVEMENT 4£4
NONLINEAR ACHIEVEMENT .399 DEPENDENCY MATCHING
LINEARITY OF  PERSON A .090
LINEARITY OF PERSON S .789
The POLICY program calculates by means of a regression analysis the realtions between cues and the distal variable (the goal)
cue
POSITIVE LINEAR
cue
NEGATIVE LINEAR
cue
INVERTED U-SHAPED
cue
U-SHAPED
ACCURACY (ra)
FALLIBLE INDICATORS (Xj)
A B
Patient
Physiological state Process (Intangible)
o
c
Fallible Tangible Indicators
Objective
Data (Lab Data)
Physician's A. Subjective
Data ^
(Palpation) ^3
Patient's © Symptoms
(Headacne) i^k.
History
Physician's Judgment of Indicators
Integration
Diagnostic Hypothesis
= fallibility index
Hammond came up with the following
^cognitive continuum theory":
Cognitive Continuum Theory
Quasirationality_
Intuition Compromise Analysis
Three Premises
arious modes, or forms, of cognition can be
V ordered in relation to one another on a continuum that is marked by intuitive cognition at one pole and analytical cognition at the other, in contrast to the traditional dichotomy, and antinomy, that has existed between these modes of cognition.
e forms of cognition that lie on the continuum
JL between intuition and analysis include elements of both intuition and analysis and are included under the term quasirationality. This is the most common form of cognition: It is known to the lay person as "common sense."
Cognitive tasks can be ordered on a continuum with regard to their capacity to induce intuition, quasirationality, and analytical cognition.
MODES OF. INQUIRY
ANALYTICAL*——- MODE CF COGNITION-> INTUITIVE
CONFLICT- REDUCING CONFLICT-PRODUCING
High -I
Feasibility for Policy Formation
Low
(0 (0
c <
(Coherence Theories)
c o
c
o o
o
•a o
Quasi-experiments with relaxed controls (social science)
Control-group experiments & statistics (agriculture; medicine; behavioral science)
True experiments (physics; chemistry)
c O '<*-» 3 C
(Correspondence Theories)
Unrestricted judgments
01 c
c
0)
2
+-*
c
n
'55
o o.
o o
o
a> o> t_
O)
a> Q
Ol
c c
0)
in
a
rr
Kahneman's „slow" System 2
Kahneman's „fast" System 1
High
Interpersonal Conflict Potential
Low
Properties of Intuition and Analysis
(Hammond, Hamm, Grassia, & Pearson, 1987)
	Intuition	Analysis
Cognitive Control	low	high
Rate of Data Processing	rapid	slow
Conscious Awareness	low	high
Organizing Principle	weighted average	task specific
Errors	normally distributed	few, but large
Confidence	high confidence in answer; low confidence in method	low confidence in answer; high confidence in method
ELABORATION OF TASK-COGNITION RELATION
(Hammond, Hamm, Grassia, & Pearson, 1987)
TASK CHARACTERISTIC	INTUITION-INDUCING STATE OF TASK CHARACTERISTIC	ANALYSIS INDUCING STATE OF TASK CHARACTERISTIC
1. Number of Cues	large ( > 5 )	small
2. Measurement of cues	perceptual measurement	objective, reliable measurement
3. Distribution of cue values	continuous, highly variable distribution	unknown distribution; cues are dichotomous; values are discrete
4. Redundancy among cues	high redundancy	low redundancy
5. Decomposition of task	low-	high
6. Degree of certainty in task	low certainty	high certainty
7. Relation between cues and criterion	linear	nonlinear
8. Weighting of cues in environmental model	equal	unequal
9. Availability of orga-izing principle	unavailable	available
10. Display of cues	simultaneous display	sequential display
11. Time period	brief	long
Some Predictions
1 1
Task properties induce corresponding cognitive processes; closer correspondence results in better performance.
2
Errors produced by analytical cognition (or systems) will be extreme; not so for intuitive cognition.
3
Analytical cognition does not always provide a ceiling for performance
[See Hammond, K. R., Hamm, R. M., Grassia, J., & Pearson, T. (1987). Direct comparison of the efficacy of intuitive and analytical cognition in expert judgment. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, SMC-J 7(5), 753-770.]
Goals
s
Correspondence Theories
tudy accuracy of judgments of empirical events from multiple fallible indicators.
Lens Model Cognitive Continuum Theory e.g., highway engineers'judgments of highway safety
Coherence Theories
Study match of probability judgments with answers from mathematical models (e.g., Bayes' Theorem)
e.g., Gambler's Fallacy Similarity
Kahneman (Twersky) „Thinking Slow and Fast"
Need for Expansion
Dynamic Cognition
Cognitive activities move along the intuitive-analytical continuum over time; as they do so the relative contributions to cognition of intuitive and analytic components of quasirationality will change. Successful cognition inhibits movement, failure stimulates it.
Inclusion of Coherence Research
Human cognition is capable of pattern recognition and the use of functional relations.
Film strips - intuition inducing
Bar graphs - quasi Rationality inducing
Fomulas -    analysis inducing
Task Continuum Index
1	Q	A
	2	3
(normal) best \y 1	mediocre \	poor
1 4 i	\	6
1 mediocre 1	best\	mediocre \
mediocre	8 mediocre	9 best
The highway design study
tudy		SURFACE TASK CHARACTERISTICS		
		Film Strips	Bar Graphs	Formulas
		(Intuition Inducing)	(Quasi Rationality Inducing)	(Analysis Inducing)
		1	Q	A
D E	Aesthetics			
P T H	(Intuition Inducing)	IE	QE	AE
T A	E			
S K	Safety			
C H A R	(Quasi Rationality Inducing)	IS	QS	AS
n A C	S			
T E	Capacity			
R 1 S T i	(Analysis Inducing)	IC	QC	AC
i C S	C			
Design of Study
Other approaches to judgment and decision making.
Ward Edwards (1927 - 2005)
An American psychologist, prominent for work on decision theory and on the formulation and revision of beliefs. For twenty-two years, he directed the university's Social Science Research Institute as a professor of psychology and of industrial and systems engineering. Edwards retired from USC in 1995. Edwards published more than one hundred journal articles and books including Decision Analysis and Behavioral Research and Utility Theories: Measurement and Applications.
Ward Edwards (1954) „The Theory of Decision Making"
In 1962, Edwards founded the Bayesian Research Conference with the aim to incorporate and apply Bayesian statistical methods and ideas to decision theory- His approach was adopted by many leading psychologists of the time including future Nobel Prize laureate, Daniel Kahneman. In the 1970s, Edwards began to look at social utilities and how to use their measurement for social decision making.
Daniel Kahneman's and Amos Twersky's study of judgment and decisions:
D.Kahneman: ^Thinking Fast and Slow"
System 1
Fast
Unconscious
Automatic
Everyday
0 Q Decisions
Error prone
System 2
r-i—H
24
1-2-3
Slow
Conscious
Effortful
Complex Decisions
Reliable
	System 1	System 2
Characteristics	c3ct Effortless ■asu Unconscious Triggers Associative emotions Locks for patterns Looks for —,    .     . . causation    Creat,es stones to explain events	Siow    Effortful Consdous Logical Deliberative Can handle abstract concepts
Advantages	Speed of response Creativity in a crisis through associations, Easy completion     so good for of routine or expansive repetitive tasks thinking	Allows reflection and consideration of the "bigger picture", options, pros and cons, consequences Can handle logic,       Good for maths, statistics reductive thinking
itages	Unhelpful emotional responses	Slow, so requires time
Disadvar	Can make errors that are not detected and corrected, such as wrong assumptions, poor judgements, false causal links	Requires effort and energy, which can lead to decision fatigue
Mats Bjorkman: human judgment as related to Carl Popper's „Three Worlds"
K.R.Hammond.: Human Judgment and Social Policy - Irreducible Uncertainly, Inevitable Error, Unavoidable injustice, Chapter.8
World 1: the world of
physical objects and states,
the ecology T, ,
07 The correspondence competence;
cccuracy of judgment (KRH),
intuition inclined, (System 1),
pattern recognition ,
World 2 : Our subjective world. Perception, thinking, our cogitive systems, dispositions to act
The coherence competence; Rationality of judgment (Ward Edwards); functional analysis inclined (System 2),
World 3: the world of scientific concepts, problems and theories, „objective objects of thought"
Methodology:
Representative design of experiments; E.Brunswik. Modern computer „flight" simulators
Systematic design of experiments; R.A.Fisher, one experimental variable, exper. and control groups
Helping to synthetize:
pictorial presentations as a tool to
reveal non obvious relationships.
Three books
Graphic Press, Cheshire, Conn. :
Edward R. Tufte
1942 -
- The Visual Display of Quantitative information (1983)
- Envisioning Information (1990)
- Visual Explanations images and quantities, evidence and narrative (1997)
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CARTE FIGURATIVE, des penes successives en hommes, de I'Armee Fran<;aise dans lacampagne de Russie 1812-1813.
Dressee oarMJIuiwd, Inspecteur Genera./ des Ponts et Chamssees en retraite.
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A comprehensive narrative description of a transport system requires a record of both time and spatial experiences. Here a complex network of routes is brought together with flight times and identification numbers in a brilliant map/schedule for the Czechoslovakia Air Transport Company in 1933. A playful and polished cover makes the brochure an exceptional union of graphic and information design.
ČESKOSLOVENSKA LETECKÁ SPOLEČNOST
ČECHOSLOVAKISCHE LUFTVER KEHRS-GE S
LETECKY
DOPRAVISII
ŘAD
FLU GPLAN1933
ISTANBUL
Cairo Karachi Saigon Bafravia
m
v xn
Kellom Tomlinson, 77ie ;4rt 0/"Dancing, Explained by Reading and Figures (London, 1735), book 1, plate xn.
Changes impressed by the Vegetable World upon the Atmosphere.
Changes impressed by the Animal World upon the Atmosphere.
3 b: The nature of information and its processing; some related opinions....
„Tangible", explicit kind of infomation, Analysis.      C ^     diffused by means of communication.
The meaning of information is usually less dependent upon the context.
Michael Polanyi 1891-1976
„Tacit" knowledge, skills, is rather of a Intuition. very personal experience nature. It is
difficult to communicate it, it gets shared differently. Most often it is story telling, metaphors, skills by dsimply imitation. The meaning may to a considerable extent depend upon the context.
System dynamics modelling: systems behavior is given by the structure of process interaction.
In the case of complex systems, most often we are not even eware of.
Quantifiable knowledge
Tangible knowledge
Tacit knowledge
Jay Wright Forrester 1918 - 2016
„A percept turns into an information when we are able to ascribe any meaning to it. The meaning is, of course, determined by the econtext, the situation - which changes most of the time..." (Lem, 1964, pp.?) Summa Technologiae, published 1964
1818 - 1862
What we look at is not that important. Important is what we
Henry David Thoreau
see
An example of other model of perception (one of many sirnrnilar ones (Ny5tedl972)
the ou:sicle environment
the system of a subject
The clis:al		
situation:		The
subs:ances.		Proximal
qalities.		situation
■elations		
The Input selector!
The I abstract ■" structures-
The momentarily states
Y
Y
t
Jf he perceptual-{cognitive structure: {substances, ■qualities, relataions
The covert
eactio" s
reactio" ^
The overt "eactions
L
Feedback
The context indepencency
rn - un
Wisdom - understandding
of principles
Knowledge - understanding
to the structures of process
Information — understanding 1othe relations among elements
/
irnulae, data > The level
of understanding