Biophysical Limits to Growth Brian D. Fath Professor, Biology Dept, Towson University, USA Senior Research Scholar, IIASA, Austria Co-Editor-in-Chief, Current Research in Environmental Sustainability Biophysical Limits to Growth Brian D. Fath Professor, Biology Dept, Towson University, USA Senior Research Scholar, IIASA, Austria Co-Editor-in-Chief, Current Research in Environmental Sustainability We witness unsustainable human-ecosystem interactions nHow could people make such serious mistakes in the past and why does society continue to repeat such mistakes today? nIs it inevitable that the environment must be degraded to satisfy human needs? Why environmental resources have been poorly conserved in the past? 1.Nature’s rate of return of ecosystem services leads us to over exploitation ¨Living off the flow is too slow, for how we want to grow ¨Poor understanding of growth, exponential growth 2.Externalities ¨Indirect cost not paid for by producer and consumer as part of a transaction ¨When a decision (for example, to pollute the atmosphere) causes costs or benefits to individuals or groups other than the person making the decision 3.Pressure for resource consumption ¨Economic and institutional growth paradigm ¨Victor Lebow (1955): our enormously productive economy demands that we make consumption our way of life, that we convert the buying and use of goods into rituals, that we seek our spiritual satisfactions, our ego satisfactions, in consumption ¨Marketing Drivers of Unsustainability nHUMAN POPULATION INCREASE ØAgriculture ØShelter ØMobility ØStuff Use Energy and Material Resources causes ØLand use change ØHabitat loss ØDeforestation ØAlter biogeochemical cycles Climate Change Eutrophication Acid precipitation Ozone Depletion Smog … Leads to Economics nEconomics is one the main organizing forces in society n nMany decisions are made based on cost-benefit analysis but true costs (direct + indirect) to individual, society, or environment are often not known Economic Growth Models WHERE IS ENVIRONMENT? http://www.polyp.org.uk/cartoons/consumerism/polyp_cartoon_Still_Not_Happy.jpg http://environment.research.yale.edu/documents/images/0-9/08Spr-happiness-chart03.jpg What is the purpose of growth? Alternative well-being indicators tell a different story Does bigger always mean better? http://www.polyp.org.uk/cartoons/consumerism/polyp_cartoon_enough.jpg Humans are social animals, measuring in terms of others, not absolutes www.nytimes.com/2016/08/07/upshot/were-in-a-low-growth-world-how-did-we-get-here.html?hp&action=cli ck&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=first-column-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top- news&_r=0 It increasingly looks as if something fundamental is broken in the global growth machine — and that the usual menu of policies, like interest rate cuts and modest fiscal stimulus, aren’t up to the task of fixing it (though some well-devised policies could help). Assumption error: Economy as an isolated system A better model: Economy as an open system A look back at the history recognizing limits Thomas Malthus nPredicts eventually food and resources will run out as populations explode n A person posing for the camera Description automatically generated 1798 George Perkins Marsh n“A certain measure of transformation of terrestrial surface, of suppression of natural, and stimulation of artificially modified productivity becomes necessary. This measure man has unfortunately exceeded.” n n n“The ravages committed by man subvert the relations and destroy the balance which nature has established…; and she avenges herself upon the intruder by letting loose her destructive energies…” Image, Source: from print from LC-BH8201-4981 http://images.amazon.com/images/P/0295983167.01._AA240_SCLZZZZZZZ_.jpg 1864 Aldo Leopold nA Sand County Almanac – regarded as the most influential book on conservation ever written. n nThe land ethic: n"A thing is right when it tends to preserve the integrity, stability, and beauty of the biotic community. It is wrong when it tends otherwise." n nEnlarges the boundaries of the community to include soils, waters, plants, and animals, or collectively: the land. n http://www.historycooperative.org/journals/ht/37.1/images/frese_fig02b.jpg 1949 Rachel Carson n1960s – The modern environmental movement is born n n1962 Silent Spring nCarson, writer and marine biologist, told how chemical use on farms, forests, and gardens, poison the environment. Insects were dying (not just the pest species) which meant no food for the birds. No birds, no bird song – a silent spring n nPublic awareness that humans are damaging environment http://www.todayinliterature.com/assets/photos/c/rachel-carson-190x290.jpg http://library.furman.edu/resources/subject/women/images/rachelcarson.gif 1st Earth Day 1970 The first Earth Day was a shot heard around the world Donella Meadows and Club of Rome http://www.clubofrome.org/cms/wp-content/uploads/2011/07/ov-simmons1.jpg 1972 Forrester-Meadows world model (a) A standard computer simulation based on 1970 values. (After Meadows, 1971) (b) Pollution-induced collapse even when known natural resource reserves are 2x. (c) Collapse due to population growth even though resources are set as unlimited and pollution controls are assumed. (d) Stabilized model producing a sustainable future. Assumptions: birth rate= death rate, capital investment= capital depreciation, and technological policies are implemented, e.g., resource recycling, pollution control, and restoration of eroded and infertile soils. http://cdn.theatlantic.com/static/mt/assets/science/cool-space-picture-5.jpg Importance of scale Importance of scale Emergence of humans, from a minor component of natural system to predominant occupant Scale of humanity has increased greatly putting pressure on all natural resources The changes have come so fast our customs, ethics, and religious patterns may not have adapted to them. http://www.csc.noaa.gov/coastal/economics/images/sa7_fig06.gif Planetary Boundaries – Stockholm Resilience Centre 2009 Donut Economics – Kate Raworth 2012 Overshooting the limits Overshooting the limits Figure 1 www.flightradar24.com/blog/then-and-now-visualizing-covid-19s-impact-on-air-traffic/ nasasport.wordpress.com/2020/04/04/new-generation-satellite-observations-monitor-air-pollution-duri ng-covid-19-lockdown-measures-in-california/ Venice Canals in 2019, left, and 2020, right Venice, Italy Alternative Economic Systems… nOne mistake of the 2007 financial crisis was the rush to put the system back as it was, flaws and all n nUse Covid to Build back better Herman Daly nBeyond Growth: the economics of sustainable development ¨The first and second laws of thermodynamics must be the starting point of economics ¨Neither the sources of useful inputs nor the sinks for polluting waste outputs are infinite. 1996 Nicolas Georgescu-Roegen nThe Entropy Laws and the Economic Process (1971) ¨Wealth is an open system, a structure maintained in the midst of throughput ¨It begins with the depletion of useful matter/energy and ends with the return of an equal quantity of spent matter/energy back to the environment. John Stuart Mill nBritish philosopher, political economist and civil servant (1806-1873) nConsidered “the most influential English-speaking philosopher of the nineteenth century" n n“Perpetual growth in material well-being is not possible or desirable.” Mill argued that the logical conclusion of unlimited growth was destruction of the environment and a reduced quality of life. He concluded that a stationary state could be preferable to unending economic growth WHY HAVE WE NOT LEARNED THIS LESSON? 1848 Steps forward nIdentify a shared common vision that respects planetary boundaries nEnhance built environment by mimicking natural processes nSystems thinking at all levels of decision-making nDefine sustainability and measure/monitor if current trends are heading toward or away from these trajectories n nNext generation initiates transformative change n Greta Thunberg n2018 – School Strike for climate – Friday’s for Future n n2019 Spoke before UN Climate conference n nWe will remember… Sunrise Movement - 2017 Cartoon by Joel Pett from USA Today, December 2009 clubofsiena.eco-soft.dk 2015 Ecosystems do quite well under constraints, let’s learn from them n“There are limits. Let’s celebrate the limits, because we can reinvent a different future.” Sunita Narain This Changes Everything 2015