CCGT Economics Sensitivity Assumptions Capacity MW 750 Upside 30 Upside 15 Base Down 15 Down 30 Upside 30 Upside 15 Base Down 15 Down 30 Load Factor (Utilisation) % 85% Gas 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 Gas 285.1 Annual output TWh 5.58 Electricity 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 Electricity 285.1 MWh 5584500 Carbon 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 Carbon 285.1 kW 750000 Capex 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 Capex 285.1 Construction time years 3 Var Opex 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0.00 Var Opex 285.1 Project life years 20 Fuel Efficiency 54% Fuel consumed MWh 10341667 NPV 110.1 Gas cost US$/mmbtu 2.80 US$/MWh 9.56 Convert mmbtu to MWh 3.413 US$=€1 1.13 EIA Estimates €mm Capital Cost US$/kW 978 733.5 US$mm 649 Fixed Cost US$/kW 11 8.25 US$mm 7 Variable Costs US$/MWh 3.5 19.55 US$mm 17 Gas Cost US$/MWh 9.56 98.8 US$mm 87 Carbon output per MWh Tonnes 0.18 Carbon price US$/t 40.00 Corporate Tax Rate 20% Electricity Price US$/MWh 50 Capacity Payment US$/kW 0.00 Project Economics 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 Utilisation 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% Output MWh 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 Price $/MWh 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Revenues $mm 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 279.2 Capacity Payment $mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capex $mm -244.5 -244.5 -244.5 Total $mm -733.5 Variable Cost $mm -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 Fixed Cost $mm -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 Fuel Cost $mm -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 -98.8 Cost of Carbon $mm -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 -74.9 Total Costs $mm -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 -201.5 Operating Cashflow €mm 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 77.7 Depreciation 20 years -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 Pre-tax profit €mm 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 Corporation Tax 20% -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 -8.2 Net Income €mm 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 Post-tax Cashflow €mm 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 Net Cashflow €mm -244.5 -244.5 -244.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 69.5 Cumulative Net Cashflow -244.5 -489.0 -733.5 -664.0 -594.5 -525.0 -455.6 -386.1 -316.6 -247.1 -177.6 -108.1 -38.7 30.8 100.3 169.8 239.3 308.8 378.2 447.7 517.2 586.7 656.2 Discount Rate 4.63% Discount Factor 1 1.05 1.09 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.31 1.37 1.44 1.50 1.57 1.64 1.72 1.80 1.88 1.97 2.06 2.16 2.26 2.36 2.47 2.58 2.70 2.83 Discounted Cashflow €mm -233.7 -223.4 -213.5 58.0 55.4 53.0 50.6 48.4 46.3 44.2 42.3 40.4 38.6 36.9 35.3 33.7 32.2 30.8 29.4 28.1 26.9 25.7 24.6 NPV €mm 110.1 IRR % 6.3% Payback (Years) 15 Breakeven Utilisation 77% Breakeven Gas Price 2.80 Breakeven Electricity Price Breakeven Carbon Price Load Factor 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Capacity Payment 59.27 48.85 38.43 28.01 17.59 7.17 -3.25 ##### Sheet/List 2 ##### WACC Cost of Equity 20-year return 10.53% Risk Free Rate 1.75% Beta 0.49 Cost of Equity 6.05% Interest Rate 4.00% Tax Rate 20% Cost of Debt 3.20% WACC 4.63% % Debt 50% % Equity 50% ##### Sheet/List 3 ##### Capital Costs US$/kW Gas CCGT 978 Onshore Wind 1877 Solar PV 2534 Hydro 3123 Coal (USC) 3636 Biomass 4985 Nuclear 5945 Offshore Wind 6628 Waste 8843 Operating Costs Fixed (LHS) Variable (RHS) Gas CCGT 11 3.5 Solar PV 23.4 0 Onshore Wind 39.7 0 Coal (USC) 42.1 4.6 Offshore Wind 54 0 Nuclear 100.3 2.3 Biomass 110 4.2 ##### Sheet/List 4 ##### 2.205 Pounds per mmBtu Tonnes per mmbtu Tonnes per MWh Gas 117.0 0.053 0.181 Gasoline 157.2 0.071 0.243 Diesel 161.3 0.073 0.250 Lignite 215.4 0.098 0.333 Coal 228.6 0.104 0.354