BSSb1194
Complex societies and their collapse
JAKUB DRMOLA

Early complex societies
- what is their purpose?
-
- why were early civilizations where they were and not somewhere else?

- what do they need?
- acceptable climate
- water, food
- natural resources
-

Image result for ancient village

Agriculture

 - ability to feed people is dependent on local crops
 - it must be efficient to allow for specialization
 - crops are not equal
◦wheat and rice are ideal
◦
 - it is difficult to spread crops to different latitude

Livestock
 - domestication of animals is also crucial
◦for both meat and physical power
◦
 - animals are not equal either
◦some are much harder to domesticate than others
◦diet, growth and breeding, temperament, sociability, etc.
◦
 - can also have trouble migrating to different latitudes


Image result for world map physical


Natural resources
Image result for ancient metal mine


Causes of collapse
 - societies grow more complex to solve problems
 - complexity “costs energy”
 - increasing complexity has diminishing returns
◦can be recovered by innovation and technology
 - complexity tends to lead to specialization
 - specialization tends to lower adaptability
 - adaptability is needed to respond to shocks

Causes of collapse
 - collapse = forced loss of complexity
◦when a society cannot “afford” itself anymore
◦can overshoot carrying capacity or diminish it

 - dependent on neighboring societies
◦lack there of, trade, takeover – W vs. E Roman Empire
◦
 - most collapses from combination of causes, but not always, single shock can be enough

Resilience

 - ability of a (social) system to maintain its function during some crisis or restore it
afterwards

 - specialization and optimizing for efficiency decrease resilience
◦for example on-time supply chains
◦or lacking redundancies

On shocks

 - natural shocks are common triggers
◦famines, earthquakes, disease
◦
 - but “unnatural”, i.e. man-made, accidents
◦unintentional consequences of intentional actions
◦most commonly industrial disasters
◦like Chernobyl or Bhopal
◦
◦

Note on “self-propagating systems”

 - any system that grows or multiplies with success (ie society/nation/empire …)
 - competition among systems (for resources, etc.)
 - winner grows and multiplies, loser withers

 - basically a Darwinian perspective: natural selection among social systems
 - prioritizes short-term gains over long-term risks

The Great Filter
 - Drake equation
◦N = R * fp * ne * fl * fi * fc * L
◦
 - Fermi paradox
◦“where are all the ETs?”

 - Great Filter?
◦something stops intelligent life

Questions

 - can we collapse?
 - what would it take?
 - what would it look like?
 - are you prepared?