Power Station Economics Gas CCGT Capacity MW 750 Load Factor % 85% 50% worse 25% worse 0% 25% better 50% better Annual output TWh 5.58 Gas Price 45.2 351.6 657.9 964.3 1270.6 MWh 5584500 Electricity Price -941.7 -141.9 657.9 1457.7 2257.5 kW 750000 Load Factor -0.4 328.8 657.9 987.1 1316.2 Construction time years 3 Carbon Price 414.2 536.1 657.9 779.8 901.6 Project life years 20 Fuel Efficiency 54% Fuel consumed MWh 10341667 NPV 657.9 Gas cost US$/mmbtu 4 IRR 13.4% US$/MWh 13.65 Convert mmbtu to MWh 3.413 US$=€1 1.13 EIA Estimates €mm Capital Cost US$/kW 978 733.5 US$mm 649 Fixed Cost US$/kW 11.0 8.3 US$mm 7 Variable Costs US$/MWh 3.5 19.5 US$mm 17 Gas Cost US$/MWh 13.65 141.2 US$mm 125 Carbon output per MWh Tonnes 0.18 Carbon price US$/t 30.00 Corporate Tax Rate 20% Electricity Price US$/MWh 66 €/MWh 95 Capacity Payment US$/kW 0 US$/MWh 107 Project Economics 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 Utilisation 0% 0% 0% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 85% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Output MWh 0 0 0 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 5584500 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Price $/MWh 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 66 Revenues $mm 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 368.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capacity Payment $mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Capex $mm -244.5 -244.5 -244.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total $mm -733.5 Variable Cost $mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 -19.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fixed Cost $mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Fuel Cost $mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 -141.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cost of Carbon $mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 -56.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Total Costs $mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 -225.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Operating Cashflow €mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 143.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Depreciation 20 0.0 0.0 0.0 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 -36.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Pre-tax profit €mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 106.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Corporation Tax 20% 0.0 0.0 0.0 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 -21.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Income €mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 85.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Post-tax Cashflow €mm 0.0 0.0 0.0 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Cashflow €mm -244.5 -244.5 -244.5 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 122.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Cumulative Net Cashflow -244.5 -489.0 -733.5 -611.4 -489.3 -367.2 -245.1 -123.1 -1.0 121.1 243.2 365.3 487.4 609.5 731.6 853.6 975.7 1097.8 1219.9 1342.0 1464.1 1586.2 1708.3 1708.3 1708.3 1708.3 1708.3 1708.3 1708.3 1708.3 1708.3 1708.3 1708.3 Discount Rate 4.93% Discount Factor 1 1.05 1.10 1.16 1.21 1.27 1.33 1.40 1.47 1.54 1.62 1.70 1.78 1.87 1.96 2.06 2.16 2.27 2.38 2.50 2.62 2.75 2.88 3.03 3.17 3.33 3.50 3.67 3.85 4.04 4.24 4.45 4.67 4.90 Discounted Cashflow €mm -233.0 -222.1 -211.6 100.7 96.0 91.5 87.2 83.1 79.2 75.4 71.9 68.5 65.3 62.2 59.3 56.5 53.9 51.3 48.9 46.6 44.4 42.3 40.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 NPV €mm 657.9 IRR % 13.4% Payback (Years) Breakeven Utilisation Breakeven Gas Price Breakeven Electricity Price Breakeven Carbon Price Discount Rate Cost of Interest 5.2% Tax Rate 20% Cost of Debt 4.2% Cost of Equity 7.5% Share of Debt 77% Share of Equity 23% WACC 4.93% Debt and Interest 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 2051 2052 2053 2054 2055 Cumulative Debt 188 367 554 577 478 376 270 159 43 -77 -202 -333 -469 -610 -758 -911 -1071 -1238 -1411 -1592 -1780 -1976 -2180 -2393 -2492 -2595 -2703 -2815 -2932 -3054 -3181 -3313 -3450 Interest on Debt 8 15 23 24 20 16 11 7 2 -3 -8 -14 -19 -25 -31 -38 -44 -51 -59 -66 -74 -82 -91 -99 -103 -108 -112 -117 -122 -127 -132 -138 -143 Total Interest Paid -235 Capital paid off 565 330 Load Factor 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Capacity Payment 43 24 ##### Sheet/List 2 ##### WACC Cost of Equity Equity market return 10.60% Risk Free Rate 4.60% Beta 0.49 Cost of Equity 7.54% Interest Rate 5.19% Tax Rate 20% Cost of Debt 4.15% WACC 4.93% % Debt 77% % Equity 23% ##### Sheet/List 3 ##### Equity Market Return MSCI World Index % Return 2009 31% 2010 12% 2011 -1% 2012 17% 2013 27% 2014 6% 2015 0% 2016 8% 2017 23% 2018 -8% 2019 28% 2020 17% 2021 22% 2022 -18% Average 11.8% 10yr average 10.6% 5 year average 8.3% Debt Yields Risk Free Return US Treasury 4.61% UK LIBOR 5.37% US AAA 5.19% UK AAA 6.20% Beta and Leverage Analysis Industry Name Number of firms Beta D/E Ratio Oil/Gas (Integrated) 4 0.98 11.50% Oil/Gas (Production and Exploration) 174 1.26 20.08% Oil/Gas Distribution 23 0.99 71.41% Oilfield Svcs/Equip. 101 1.38 32.60% Power 48 0.73 77.16% Software (Internet) 33 1.55 17.66% Utility (General) 15 0.64 74.18% ##### Sheet/List 4 ##### Capital Costs US$/kW Gas CCGT 978 Onshore Wind 1877 Solar PV 2534 Hydro 3123 Offshore Wind 3617 Coal (USC) 3636 Biomass 4985 Nuclear 5945 Waste 8843 Operating Costs Fixed (LHS) Variable (RHS) Gas CCGT 11 3.5 Solar PV 23.4 0 Onshore Wind 39.7 0 Coal (USC) 42.1 4.6 Offshore Wind 92.7 0 Nuclear 100.3 2.3 Biomass 110 4.2 ##### Sheet/List 5 ##### 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Onshore 21.9% 27.9% 25.8% 28.4% 26.2% 29.3% 23.6% 28.0% 26.7% 26.5% 28.1% 23.2% 27.4% Offshore 30.5% 37.0% 35.8% 39.1% 37.3% 41.5% 36.0% 38.9% 39.9% 40.4% 45.7% 37.4% 40.7% 10yr ave 5yr ave 3 yr ave Onshore 26.7% 26.4% 26.2% Offshore 39.7% 40.8% 41.3% ##### Sheet/List 6 ##### 2.205 Pounds per mmBtu Tonnes per mmbtu Tonnes per MWh Gas 117.0 0.053 0.181 Gasoline 157.2 0.071 0.243 Diesel 161.3 0.073 0.250 Lignite 215.4 0.098 0.333 Coal 228.6 0.104 0.354 Wind 0 Solar 0 ##### Sheet/List 7 ##### Cost Breakdown US$mm Capex 734 Opex 556 Cost of Finance 1050 Cost of Finance Total Cashflow 1708 Total Discounted Cashflow 658 Difference 1050