Final Lecture: Thinking About Future Trends Affecting USNSP & Shifting Naťl Security Paradigms US Naťl Security Policy Dave McCuan Masaryk University Dept. of Int'l Relations & European Studies Fall 2009 Introduction - What Does the Future of USNSP Look Like? • Why Think about the Future? • Increasing rate of historical change. • Governments need to anticipate and respond early in order to effectively manage change. • As students, we need to practice & enhance techniques of theorizing & forecasting as a regular part of our thinking. • Forward Emerging Issues - The Great "Shift" of Security: • Changes in the post-World War II of the US as a global leader • Changes to the liberal democratic system • Survival of the International State System • Changes with / to sovereignty (Is sovereignty over?) • Changes with / to conflict • Higher level of tensions that result Future Variables of Interest Security & Technology • Nanotechnology • Genetics • Environment • Energy • Disease • Artificial Intelligence • NLW (Non-Lethal Weapons t) Security • Increased asymmetric warfare • Geopolitical shifts and alliances • Revolutionary weapons development • Surveillance • Demographics • State disintegration Economics • High technology textiles • Energy • Rejection of Capitalism by developing world • India's growth • China's growth • Environment • Developing countries default on IMF loans Governance • Internet governance • Water Scarcity • Mass privatization • Space colonization • Regionalism • Disease • State disintegration The Security - "Shift Happens" • "In times of rapid change, the learners inherit the earth, while the learned find themselves beautifully equipped to deal with a world that no longer exists." - Eric Hoffer • "The illiterate of the 21st Century will not be those who cannot read or write, but those who cannot learn, unlearn and relearn." - Alvin Toffler • It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change. - Charles Darwin • We must always renew, change, rejuvenate ourselves; otherwise we harden. - Johann Wolfgang von Goethe • Evolution of thinking is, thus, imperative. A New National Security "The greatest test of global leadership in the 21st century will be the way in which nations act in the face of threats that transcend international borders, from nuclear proliferation, armed conflict, and climate change to terrorism, biological hazards, and abject poverty. Today, national security is interdependent with international security." -U.S. Global Strategic Assessment 2009 The Cold War - Adversarial Map The Long War / GWOT Adversarial Map A Map of Emerging Security Issues? Widespread Troubles? And Perennial Security Issues - Left Behind The NKPD at Night Nighttime Lights, Korean Peninsula , 21 September 2003, 12012 j/tl £^-nT ^^ y^^ *ť^- ^£ľX :w^mm ^■;w ^ The Nation-State: Is it Losing Ground? International Bodies Global Advocacy Groups Licit Private Actors Illicit Private Actors Aggrieved National Groups Mn intensifying war PASHTUNISTAN" Shaded areas on the map indicate approximate lands al ethnic Pashtuns, AFGHANISTAN KHOST One of three cfties. along with Kabul and Kandahar, thai the additional American troops will focus on securing. Kwai KANDAHAR The former Taliban stronghold belong 9/11 and center of resurgence in southwestern Afghanistan is now a crucial objective of the American effort to control major urban areas Kaůu! American troops will also go to HeJmand province, a center of opium production. the hammer of American pressure on Taliban forces north of the border can be more effective if... KMVBEB Fw4 ?. KrlOSt '—* « Islamabad PAKISTANI BADLANDS Wajiristan has been the target of American drone attacks against Islamist extremists who had operated here with near impunity until recent Pakistani army attacks. „.THE ANVIL of Pakistani military attacks and American drone strikes teeps them from fleeing to safety in the soul h PAKISTAN MLOCHfSTAN tauban refuge Quetta is a city where Afghan Taliban leaders can plan operations across the border. It is m Baluchistan, where Americans have sought to conduct additional drone slrtkes Pakistan has resisted. Missile Strikes In the Tribal Areas AslLtJy ly the Center fo' America-- ^rwjress IoijfkJ Ifsal INeie have haen at lt»as! flf) niissiln stipkr?« in it 'ribal areas n f Pakislan since January ZÜOÖ. I he strides ape L>eMevtriJ lu Ire fjart u I a class lied United Stales piogiiafn lo usn missiles fired 'mm moifHely DÜotori "Hrnne"1 direral tu ((Ji operatives uf Al Qaeca. Ihf Taliban a'-d Itie-r a lies flamaiMa ■ BAjAURAGtHtV NllrnOrt ni Klndr.s by month IDC BDI Ja".3iM8 Jan SUM Mac shuws location* of alii, tfiou^l * !t* *d rn:l ti*»a .ri.mgri Inf «met«* 1« ri1' <rs in which higl-value ■-.I'n^l-V "VL:r" l-líiť;" dfeKZ* h U-F.AM AFGHANISTAN PAKISTAN '^■aÉpJ^^i NCRTh WtóFHSTAN á1 =# l.srtia i 5QUTH WÄ^tfli&TAN ^,m VV..r?. I * Jar« Kliöl -.<;■ rrules r äúun».-Ltfi£aayr^ĽU^ ty 3h* fráter AxAnwfcdftftdgnMj h ani n a«« ^orto i . AFGHANISTAN ape* j Z "TY v ■■ ■ I.-, || .11 . Globalization as Two-Edged Sword Exacerbating Tensions? The forces of globalization that stitch the world together and drive prosperity could also tear it apart. In the face of new transnational threats and profound security interdependence, even the strongest countries rely on the cooperation of others to protect their national security. No nation, including the United States, is capable of successfully meeting the challenges, or capitalizing on the opportunities, of this changed world alone. But American security, defense, & foreign policies lag behind these realities. Examples of this Paradigm Shift Natural Resources Challenges The Spread of (violent) Islam The Changing Nature of War & Conflict The Rise of China Re-emerging, perennial / traditional issues such as "piracy" & "arms control and proliferation." 9 Actual Attack 0 Attempted Attack of vj v jj' m m mftrn t (BW 3 /«pom li Mi mi t* «f í* Ociniwi »oer f ho p..-! iíoti J J* í W C 5f J J ? ŕ Resources - Specific Regional Challenges • China, a country with more than 22% of the world's population, only has 8% of its fresh water. • India's water demand is expected to double by 2025. • The Middle East's fresh water availability is expected to drop by 50% well before 2025. Islam - Why We Care: Foreign Policy Implications • Our interests in Afghanistan, Pakistan, Israel, Palestine, and Iran are inextricably tied to Islam. • A negative perception of the US and its involvement in the region feeds Islamic extremism "Ironically, our greatest strength—military power—has become our greatest liability because extensive use of military power can help to mobilize Muslims to become Salafi jihadists. Our most important partners are Muslims, and we will have to continue to find ways to support ongoing Muslim efforts to marginalize the Salafi jihadist ideology across the Islamic world while taking prudent actions to inhibit catastrophic terrorism." -U.S. Global Strategic Assessment 2009 The Changing Nature of War/ Conflict •As society & technology change, the nature of war also changes, specifically with regard to: •Actors •Means "The most capable opponents may seek to pursue what has been called hybrid warfare—the combination of conventional, irregular, and catastrophic forms of warfare simultaneously." -U.S. Global Strategic Assessment 2009 Changing Conflict, cont'd Inter-state conflicts expected to prevail in the next decades Most conflicts - identity-driven (issues of ethnicity, breakup of federalism, religious violence) Chaos, barbarity, complexity Traditional methods of intervention (diplomatic pressure, sanctions) fail Violence - not a means but an end aim Lack of legal criteria for international intervention (right of human right intervention) on part of UN, NATO,OECD Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA) as an impetus to unilateral actions (e.g.USA) Cases of Kosovo 1999 and Iraq 2003 Today's global troubles Net migraüon flows «3KS i i N s: err g ration sountr as AnnLal avg nz of migrants (1S95-2COO0 ■+100,000 120,000-100,000 -20,000 Nat immigration countries: Annual avg no erf migrants SOG - 2COO0 + 100,000 20,000-100r000 -20,000 Immig ration äqual bo emigration No data Tomorrow's domestic concerns! öQUHCt: Umtrü Nations (2DOZ) Diplomacy, Development and Defense The United States Department of State: United States Agency for international Development and Linited States Department of Detense y NORTHCOM ariuD-V R L SOUTHCOM U.S. AFRICA COMMAND HIÜ HUMANITARIAN INFORMATION UNIT VS-DetxirtimtHotSHf '■■i.'v:J.:í:i.-äi.i United States Agency for International Development (USAID) J5A D reg ora: Lxjunsaires Countrea mih U5AID ntsaiors oe programs United States Department of State Regional Bureaus A tricar- A"ai r?- f Je ar Eas:e t i?a rs East Asian and Dacif c AlWs South wid Genual As an Alairs European anc Eura^iar AiTaiTS /Ve»em Hem jphere APars United States Department of Defense ^^~ Regional Mrrrrand boundary ... CEkTCCWAORÍAFRICOM Merest ■..- hORTHCOM AOR/PACCM ttMRl Thoughts on Doctrine & Policy: Why Bother? • "The most difficult thing about planning against the Americans, is that they do not read their own doctrine, and they would feel no particular obligation to follow it if they did." Admiral Sergei I. Gorshkov, (Father of the Russian blue water navy) • "The British write some of the best doctrine in the world, it is fortunate that their officers do not read it." Col (later FM) Erwin Rommel • "I am tempted to say that whatever doctrine the armed forces are working on now, they have got it wrong. I am also tempted to declare that it does not matter. What does matter is their ability to get it right quickly, when the moment arrives." Sir Michael Howard The Future of Engagement - Requires Alliances • What is a peer? • Will asymmetric, nontraditional means become a commonplace element of war? • What does it mean to "win"? • Must we be prepared to fight a war on many fronts? - combat abroad, in the face of both kinetic and nontraditional threats - attacks at home, to hinder supply and deployment - attacks on civilian targets in the US homeland - shaping public opinion • When many more adversaries are nuclear powers, how will it change the equation? • Employing the private sector? Blackwater? Traditional Orientation to Security Problems Executive Branch Agencies Foreign Governments Congress Nongovernmental Organizations Intergovernmental Organizations iS5«>q. IB* ~^^é< Players and Connections The Original "Interagency" (IA) Conception Current Reality Adds.... State & Local Governments Multinational Firms How are new olavers leveraqed in "Whole BILL^MELINDA Gates/**««*' of Government" (WOG) strategy? WOG Players & Connections: Today's Reality Department of State and USAID White House National Security Strategy Other USG Partners Department ol the 1 reasury DRAFT - FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES ONLY U.S. House of Representatives Congressional Oversight of DHS By 86 Committees and Subcommittees 110th Congress U.S. Senate Border, Maritime and Global Counterterrorism Emergency Communications, Preparedness, &Response Emerging Threats, Cybersecurity and Science and Technology intelligence, Information Sharing and Terrorism Risk Assessment Management, Investigations and ■ Oversight Transportation Security and Infrastructure Protectiot O select Intelligence Oversight c Panel o g Transportation, Housing and o Urban Development, and a Related Agencies House Agriculture Committee Specialty Crops, Rural Development, & Foreign Agriculture House Armed Services Committee House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligei *a n spoliation, Housing and Urban Development, and Related Agencies Homeland Security Disaster Recovery Federal Financial Management, £* t Government Information, J ■ Federal Services, and International 3 jj Security § : 1 : Oversight and Government — 2 Management the Federal Workforce, £ : and the District of Columbia =•• , Permanent Subcommittee | >? on Investigations i § State, Local, and Private Sector Preparedness and Integration 3 Crime, Terrorism and Homeland Security Immigration, Citizenship, Refugees, Border Security, and International Law 3 Commercial and Administrative Law Technology and Innovations Immigration, Border Security and Citizenship Subcommittee Terrorism, Technology and = Homeland Security 2. Human Rights and the Law 0 o 3 Senate Small Business and 3 Entrepreneurship J Senate Finance Committee Senate Agriculture, Nutrition and Forestry Committee Interstate Commerce, Trade and j Tourism -I Oceans, Atmosphere, Fisheries and Si 3 Coast Guard § 3 •Surface Transportation and Merchant | o Marine Infrastructure, Safety and Security 3 3 Science, Technology and Innovation What Do These Changes Portend for Europe? • "Common House Europe" (Gorbachev) -A Failed Concept? • Backbones of European Security - OECD, EAPC, EU, NATO • NATO - only institution, able to manage conflict, enforce peace, provide order (Bosnia v.Kosovo) • Partnership for Peace • NATO's enlargement - does it promote a common European Security Identity? • Russia - a strategic partner or rival in the new security architecture of Europe? m NATO & Inťl Security • Should NATO's mission expand outside the European continent and if so, why? • Should NATO cover more geographic space (pertaining to the debate on enlargement)? • NATO expansion may incorporate countries with potential new threats (disease, crime, etc.) Does it make sense to take such risks at the present time? • Is NATO obsolete? Or, are there still enough shared elements (culture, ways of life) between the U.S. and Europe that justify an expanded role? • Are there other international organizations (UN) that might handle present day security threats more effectively? What Comes Next? NATO, the US, & Russia "Though the former superpower is an IR actor of regional character with a vast decrease in military power and profound economic and political problems, long term stability on the European continent can only be achieved with a clear strategy towards Moscow." Kurt Spillman, "Towards the 21st Century: Trends in Post-Cold War International Security Policy", Bern, 1999, p. 324 Final Ideas to Consider ^ ICTY I INC IN a PEACE TJ Structure How is USNSP changing going forward? Should (can?) the U.S. continue to play the role of world policeman? Is there a need for a new overarching security arrangement (maybe a NATO-Russia Council)? Does the U.S. (do other nations?) require a mandate from the UN to defend itself? How is legitimacy achieved when a nation acts without some form of international authorization? How does one tighten security (improve security provisions) without infringing upon basic human rights? Is there a need for changes in international organizations, deployment, communications, information processing? (&)lAEA.orB T*V'-- ^Jr Iniamahonal AlDmie En* Inlsmahonal AlDmie Energy Agency