US Foreign Policy (USFP) and the Policy of Containment: U.S. Grand Strategy, 1947-1991 George F. Kennan (b. 1904; d. 2005) The Architect of Containment Policy U.S. Emerges Really as The Only Superpower in 1945 * Consequences of World War II: * Britain, France, Japan, Germany reduced to second-rate powers. * USSR victorious, and a direct challenger to US power, but badly wounded: over 20 million dead, devastated infrastructure, GDP down by some 30%. * U.S.: overwhelming military presence in Asia, Western Europe; monopoly of the atomic bomb (1945-49); doubles its GDP during the war * U.S. as leader of international organizations: UN, IMF, World Bank Imagining the threat * Realism predicts former allies would collide over spoils; * Soviet moves during 1945-48 seen as threats against the U.S.: Iranian crisis, communist takeover in Eastern Europe, the first Berlin crisis, threats against Turkey, the beginning of the civil war in Greece; * Controversy: post 1980`s authors claim that these were defensive moves; M. Evangelista argues that Stalin was designing a defensive conventional posture in Europe; Devising the Strategy * Grand Strategy: body of thought and policies combining existing and predicted means for use in diplomatic and military actions to achieve long-term goals regarding the distribution of power in the international system; * Main work: George F. Kennan` s July 1947 "Foreign Affairs" article "The Sources of Soviet Conduct": ­ Soviet expansionism is a product of both Russian imperialism and Marxist-Leninist thought and is inevitable; ­ Soviet expansionism is a natural tendency of the Communist elite seeking security by conquering the world; ­ Only resistance to the establishment of other Communist regimes by "containing" USSR is an appropriate policy; ­ Through patience and firm resistance, the Soviet power will erode and decay from within. The Diplomatic features of Containment * Enrolling Allies: ­ Truman Doctrine (1947): commitment to defend Turkey and Greece against a Communist takeover; U.S. assumes Britain` s role in the Eastern Mediterranean; ­ NATO (April 1949) ­ enrollment of all former Western great powers through the form of a democratic and liberal coalition against Soviet totalitarianism; ­ CENTO former METO (Baghdad Pact), (1955-79) comprising Britain, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Iraq (to 1959); after the Suez Crisis (1956) and the British withdrawal "east of Suez" (1967-71) assumes Britain` s role in the Middle East; the heaviest pressured zone, but not by the Soviets; ­ South Korea (after June 1950) and Japan after WWII; Engaging the Soviet Union * War against Soviet and Chinese backed North Korea (1950- 53); * Firm position on both Berlin crises (1947-48; 1957-62); * Castigation of the imposed communist regimes in Eastern Europe; * Tough stance on Cuba (1962); threat of war * Tough stance on Israel-Arab wars 1967 and 1973 (preventing the arrival of Soviet ground and air forces in the Middle East); * War against Communists in Indochina (1965-75) * Combining sticks with carrots at nuclear negotiations (NPT 1968), ABM Treaty (1972-2001/2), SALT, Geneva negotiations (1983-85), INF (1987) * Help to Afghan insurgents (1979-88); the Carter Doctrine; Attacking From Within * Undermining Communist countries by propaganda (Radio Free Europe, the Voice of America); * Threatening with war or grave consequences (Romania 1968, Poland 1980-81); * Active involvement in the Polish crisis of the 1980`s; * Most important diplomatic action: the triangular diplomacy of Kissinger and Nixon ­ rallying Communist China in the anti-Soviet camp (1969-71); * Rewarding dissident (Yugoslavia) or pseudo-dissident communist nations (Romania) through diplomatic and economic means; Military Preparations * Nuclear buildup: from the "Little Boy" of Hiroshima to the 14000 warheads of the middle 80` s; * Devising the MAD: massive retaliation, flexible response and the balance of terror; * Tough policy on both Western Allies and the Soviet Union on the issue of medium-range ballistic missiles and cruise missiles (early 1980`s); * The Strategic Defense Initiative (1983) * Up, nuclear blast; down, USS Los Angeles Conventional Buildup * After Korea the U.S. commences to build a strong conventional deterrent in order to prevent the Soviet Union takeover of the entire Europe or military adventures in the Middle East or Asia; * Numbered armies in Germany and Japan, numbered fleets in the Mediterranean, the Atlantic Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the Chinese Seas; almost 2 million military personnel. * A F-4 Phantom II, USS Saratoga and a M60 Patton Conclusion * The Strategy, also highly criticized throughout the war, WORKED. * Main problem: Was containment applied as such, or was the argument a post hoc ergo propter hoc thinking?