Oil and natural gas Peak Oil and ERoEl
V
Filip Černoch cernoch@tn ail .muni, cz
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World total primary energy supply by fue
Note: Peat and oil shale aggregated with coal.
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World total primary energy supply by fue
1973
HnAnli*iflw*sle
6 101 Mtoe
2015
IS 647 Mtoe
Note: Peat and oil shale aggregated with coal.
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Peak Oil
• A point in time when the maximum rate of extraction is reached and only decline in production is expected.
•Based on Marion King Hubbert's (1903-1989) models (Shell, US Gelogical Survey).
•Presentation in San Antonio in 1956 predicting U.S. oil peak for 1970.
•Concept    is    being    criticized    for „Malthusian perspective".
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Oil (gas) peak
1850      1870       1890       1910      1930 1956   1970      1990      2007       2030 2050
year
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Early peak" predictions
Peak oil date	Source and date of forecast
2006-2007	Bakhtiari f2004^
2006 on	Simmons (2006)
After 2007	Skrebowski f2004^
Soon after 2007	World Enerp-v Council f2007^
2009-2031	Sorrell et al. f2009^
Before 2010	Goodstein f2004^
Around 2010	Campbell f2005N)
Possibly 2010	Klare f2004^
2010	Aleklett et al. f2010^
After 2010	Skrebowski (2005)
2006-2017	Hiro f2007^
Soon after 2010	De Margerie. C. Total S.A. (Walt. 2010^
2008-2012	De Almeida and Silva f2009^
2012-2017	Koppelaar. 20    and Koppelaar. 2006
2008-2018	Robelius f2007^
2014	Nashawi et al. f2010^
2015	Shell f2008^
„Late peak" predictions
Peak oil date
Not before 2017 After 2020 After 2020
2020 or beyond 2035 2020 (for oil and gas) 2025 or later 2035
Not before 2035 No visible peak
No peak but 54.2 years of global production
Teak oil theories have been abandoned'
'Oil demand ... reaching a long plateau in the 2040s'
Source and date of forecast
CERA (2008)
Hayward, T., BP (Macalister. 2010) CERA (Jackson and Esser. 2004)
TEA (2010)
Shell (2011)
Davis (2003)
CERA (Jackson. 2006)
EIA (2010)
Maugeri (2012)
BP (2012)
Mountains Scenario
Oceans Scenario (Shell. 2013)
Was Hubbert right?
•Easily  accessible  oil  and  gas  deposits  are being depleted.
•Decreasing discovery rate (fields 'too big to miss').
•But    predicted    peak    repeatedly   increased and postponed.
• How to explain this contradiction?
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Was Hubbert right?
•Economic perspective — „oil reserves are the amount of oil that is minable at today's prices using existing technology" (proven, probable and possible reserves).
• E&P in extreme conditions.
•New techniques of extraction (unconventional oil and gas).
•Increasing recovery rate - from 22% in 80s to 35% today.
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US oil production since 1965
12.0
6.0
1965      1 968      1 971      1974      1 977      1 980      1 983      1 986      1 989      1 992      1 995      1 998      2 0 01      2 0 04      2 0 07      2 010 20Ü
Data source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2014 © Robert Rapie
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New areas of exploration - deep waters
Wells drilled in excess of 1000 feet as deep (first in 1975), 5000 and more (1986) as ultra-deep.
Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, West Africa.
Reserve billion barrels: Onshore
Offshore
Deepwater
213
Mote: Figures are a representative sample of tile world's major oilfields in billion of barrels,
source: world Energy Outlook 2010 © OECD/Iinternational Energy Agency 2010
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Location of deepwater drilling oil fields
Gutfof Msxico
UK
Mauritania •
India #
Brazil /
Ivory Coast     nigeria a EquatoriaI Guinea
Angola %
a Congo
«
Indonesia é
1>
Deepwaier uevelopneni areas
"Golden Triangle'
K under af deepwater cil fields belowMOm
Source: Petraleun Economist
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New areas of exploration - deep waters
Traditional onshore drilling.
•Limited impacts — considerable experience, physically limited possibility of spillage.
•Impacts similar to mining operations in non-energy industry — land use, water and air pollution, dust, noise, transportation damages of habitats.
• Long history of regulation in the EU and USA.
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New areas of exploration - deep waters
Offshore drilling
• Complicated technology and hostile environment increase the risk of accidents and their impact.
• Oil spillages in the water (lm3 = spillage up to lkm2).
•Increase in a number of off-shore installations accompanied by more stringent regulation (2010 Gulf of Mexico - Directive 2013/30/EU on safety of offshore oil and gas operations).
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High profile oil spills from offshore blowouts
Date of incident	Location	incident and Spillage Details (Estimated figures)	insured loss(S)
2S.1.69-12.2.69	Santa Barbara, California	80,000 -100,000 barrels	Not available
3.6.79 - 23.3.80	IxtocWell, Mexico	3.3 million barrels	22,000.000
22.4.77-30.4.77	Ekofisk Norwegian Sector, North sea	202,381 barrels	6,887,000
1980	Funiwa Niger Delta, Nigeria	200,000 barrels	53,554,000
2.10.80-10.10.80	Arabian Gulf	100,000 barrels	1,300,000
21.8.09-3.11.09	Timor Sea, Australia/ Indonesia	28,800 barrels of condensate oil	425.000,000
20.4.10-15.7.10	Gulf of Mexico	4.9 million barrels, plus 11 fatalities and 17 injuries	2,560,000,000
Adapted from Willis Energy Loss Database and American Petroleum institute Analysis of US Oil Spillage 2009
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Transport of oi
• One of the biggest threats in ship transportation — oil spill. Intentional (terorism, piracy) and unintentional (accident, collision,, running ashore, failure of the ship) accidents.
• Risk is significantly higher in highly frequent areas — in 1995-2005 in Turkish Straits 269 accidents.
•To stop VLCC or ULCC tanker 14 minutes and 3km are needed.
• In 70s there were 25,2 leaks annually, in 80s 9,3 leaks, in 90s 7,8 and after 2000 3,4 leaks annually.
• But with increasing capacity of tankers the oil spills are more severe with increasing environmental impacts.
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il spills during the maritime transport of oi
35
30
1970-79: 24.5 spills per year on
average
1980 89: 9.4 spills per year on average
1990-99: 7.7 spills per year on average
s
2000 09: 3.2 spills per year on average
2010-15: 1.8 spills per year on average
1970     1973     1976     1979     1982     1985     1988     1991     1994     1997     2000     2003     2006     2009     2012 2015
Annual number of spills to U.S. waters from facilities and pipelines, 1980 - 2004
3.000
# # & & # ^ # ^ <f         / ^
Facilities
Pipelines
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New areas of exploration - Arctic regions
Contributions to global oil production growth
Conventional:
Middle East
Brazil
Rest of the world
Unconventional:
Light tight oil
Oil sands, extra-heavy oil, coal/gas-to-liquids, St other
-S
0
2013-2025 2025-2035
S
mb/d
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Unconventional sources - oil
Produced or extracted using techniques other than the conventional (oil well) methods.
• Conventional oil: mineral oil consisting of a mixture of hydrocarbons of natural origin, exists in liquid form under normal surface temperatures and pressure.
• Unconventional oil: to be extracted non-conventional technology is needed, in natural state (without heating or diluting) couldn't be extracted.
• Oil sands, tight oil, oil shale, oil produced from coal...
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Oil sands, tight oil, oil shale...
• Consistency — extremely dense and viscous, almost solid.
•High level of sulphur and metals (nickel, vanadium).
•Venezuela - Orinoco Belt (1200 bn. barrels = approximately equal the world's reserves of lighter oil, 200 billion barrels technically recoverable)
•Alberta, Canada — reserves of 1700 -250 bn. barrels (11 % of world oil reserves, 3rd on the world), 99 % oil sands. Export around 2 mil. barrels/day.
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Producing techniques: in-situ mining
•Injecting hot fluids (or steam) into the rock formation, shale oil is recovered through vertical wells.
• Increased water and energy (natural gas) consumption. 2-4 barrels of water/1 barrel of oil, 70-90% could be recycled.
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voir ^viscous oil surface
Producing techniques - open pit mining
• Open pit (ex-situ) mining (max 70m) (oil sand-bitumen, also shale oil).
• Excavation, when sand is cooped out by power shovels, carried away, then hot water is used to separate bitumen from the sand. Then it is refined.
• 8-10 barrels of water/1 barrel of oil, 40 - 70% could be recycled. About 2 (but up to 4) tons of material/1 barrel of oil.
• l,5x more GHG then in case of conventional crude oil.
• http: / / www.youtube.com/watch?v=YkwoRivPl 7 A
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Mining shovels dig into sand and load it into trucks.
Trucks take oil sands to crushers, where it is prepared for extraction.
Hot water is added to ttie oil sands and ttien transported via hyclrotransport to trie extraction plant.
Bitumen is extracted from the oil sands in the separaiion vessels.
The tailings - consisting of sand, clay, water and a small amount of residual oil - are pumped lo Ihe settling basin, where trie water is recycled and reused in the process,
Bitumen is sent to refineries across North America to make products including gasoline, jet fuel and plastics,
Shale gas
Natural gas (= clean fuel) trapped within shale formations.
Fracking — combination of horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing.
High consumption of water, 0,5-2% of injected liquid represents added chemicals.
One well - 280 000 hi of water.
2-4 hectares/1 drilling pad (= up to 30 wells), 3-6km between pads.
Transport — one well/700-2000 trucks (during installation one car every 4 minutes).
Methane leackages, earthquakes.
https: / / www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ag9GUogWEaO
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Peak Oil theory disproved?
• Peak oil might by postponed.
• Technology and strict regulation could limit accidents.
•New sources of oil and natural gas consumes more environmental services (water, land etc.)
•And their low ERoEI requires even more intense production.
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Peak Oil theory disproved?
North American tight oil production {January 2005-February 2014)
million barrels per day
4.0
3.5 3 0 2.5 2 0 1.5 1.0 0.5
0.0 r
Canada
other U.S.
Bakken
Eagle Ford
2005     2006    2007    2008     2009    2010    2011     2012    2013 2014
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Peak Oil theory disproved?
Movement of World ON Prices
$/bbl (real 2010 dollars, monthly average) 160
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ERoEl
•Energy returned on energy invested — ratio of the amount of usable energy delivered from a particular energy resource to the amount of energy used to obtain that energy resource.
•Less then one — energy sink, net energy loss.
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ERoEI
Standard ERoEI — divides the energy output for a project (region, country) by the sum of the direct and indirect energy used to generate that output.
Point of use ERoEI — includes additionally the costs associated with refining and transporting the fuel
Extended ERoEI — considers the energy required not only to get but also to use a unit of energy
Societal ERoEI — all gains from fuels and all costs of obtaining these fuels.
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ERoEI
oil Remaining as Consumer Reaclv Tup)
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EROEI of different sources of energy	
Oil in the beginning of oil business	100
Oil in Texas around 1930	60
Oil in the Middle East	30
Other oil	10-35
Natural gas	20
High quality coal	10-20
Low quality coal	4-10
Water power plants	10-40
Wind power plants	5-10
Shale oil	5
PV power plants	2-5
Nuclear energy	4-5
Oil sands	max. 3
Shale oil	max. 1,5
Biofuels (in Europe)	0,9-4
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60 1
45.1
Global Oil and Gas EROI Values and Trends (1990-2010)
* Global oil aid gas (Gagnan el al. 2009) — Global oil aid gas trend-
O
Of 30:1
Li.
15:1
1S89
2000
2010
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Future of fossil fuels?
Environmental cost of consumption of fossil fuels is not static.
Production needs to grow faster than consumption due to the ERoEI + each new barrel of oil and cubic metre of gas is more (not less) environmentaly demanding.
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Sources
• Hall et all (2014): EROI of different fuels and the implications for society. Energy Policy vol 64
• Lacalle, D.(2011): Peak Oil Defenders 'Most Overlooked Mythe: EROEI
• Lloyd's (2011): Drilling in Extreme Environments: Challenges and Implications for the Energy Insurance Industry
• Hook, M., Tang, X.(2013): Depletion of fossil fuels and anthropogenic climate change — a review. Energy Policy, Vol. 52.
• ITOPF: Oil Tanker Spill Statistics 2015
• Canada's Oil Sands web pages.
• The Encyclopedia of Earth (2012): Oil spills in U.S. coastal waters: background, governance and issues for
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