Climate change and fossil fuels V Filip Cernoch cemoch@jnail.muni.cz CENTER FOR ENERGY STUDIES Explaining the climate change • „How could scientists predict the climate in 100 jears when they cannot predict the weather tomorrow? " • Climate: atmospheric conditions over a long period of time (years to centuries). •Weather: short time (minutes to weeks). • Consequences for prediction — climate undergoes more gradual change (than weather) and is easier to predics. center for energy studies 1) The planet's temperature is rising •Over the past 130 years the global average temperature has increased by 0,8°C (more than half of that in last 35 years). • Ocean accounts for more than 90% of the energy accumulated between 1971-2010. •Ancient ice samples (from Antarctica and other places) — their layers are dated and gas bubles inside are analysed. • C02 concentration is measured by infrared spectroscopy or mass spektromectry. • Isotope ratios of water molecules are measured to determine historical temperatures. center for energy studies The planet's temperature is rising •Earth's climate has always fluctuated. The cooler period — ice ages or glacial periods, the warmer period — interglacial periods. • Orbital variations • Solar output • Volcanism • Plate tectonics •The rate of change has become more dramatic since the Industrial Revolution = anthropogenic origins. • Problems with adaptation center for energy studies Temperature Changes in the Past 800,000 Years soo^JDir 600,000 400,000 200,000 Years Before Present Temperature (:C) relative to 1961-1990 average center for energy studies < "./St-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-1-r 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 CENTER FOR j ENERGY STUDIES i Observed change in surface temperature 1901 - 2012 >+**.*. -'******-4-44****l i't +■ + +-t + +■ + +4444444' j^* + *-+ + 4 + ** *++4**+++ ,+*++*+*+++++*+•+*+* 4i*4++t.T + + ■ ** + t *t + * + + ■ * * * * +^ V4 4" * * * fc. +. 4 4 4 + + ■"4 + + 4-4- + 4* + +4-4-4-- 4+4++4++ tT^V 4 P J- 4 r t + I-44 + + 4 4 4 4 4 * + 4 4 4 * 4 4 « + 4*44+44+4 4 t+Vt 4 4 4 + 4 K + + h 44 + l * * * * 4 + + + »+- + + + 4 + 4 J* + 4*4 * + + * 4 + + » 4 4 *V 444444+ 4 4' + 4X4 4 4*4 hk-4 4 4 + + 4 4 h 4 4 *\ ** *. * + * 44+44+4 + + + 4 • * 4 4 + 4 4 + 4 + 4 h 4 + 4 ',+ ± * + * * * + 44 + 44+44*> + \ 4 1_ + 4 4 £ 4 4 + 4 4 ' * + * * '. 4 4- * * + »- + +••++ + + 4 4 + + 4 4 4 4 4 * + 4 j4 4 + * ' h 4 + • * *L 1? * tlw * + + * ,\ * * + * + 4 + 4r + 4 + 444 + 44444 + + + + + + + ■* + + + + + + flMMBfc,* + + + *■ ■ + 4^4(44n4+-44 + + 4 + + + * + + + +^T>-# * * +> + J 4 + 4." ■ + 4 4fVt 4**44*4 + 4** + J-*** 4 + * * 1 4 ■ * *]*