Renewable sources of energy
Filip Černoch
cernoch@mail.muni.cz
Energy policy of the EU
What are RES?
• Renewable energy is energy derived from natural processes that
is replenished at a higher rate than it is consumed.
• Solar, wind, geothermal, hydropower, bioenergy, ocean power.
• Traditional vs. „new“ renewables.
• Variable/non-dispatchable (wind, solar) vs. dispatchable (hydro,
biomass/biogas) RES.
Drivers for deployment
• Environmental concerns.
• Energy security.
• Rural development.
• Employment.
• High-tech manufacturing.
RES and climate change
• Could RES be the pillar of the (global) energy system?
• What is the growth potential?
= are they ready to meet some substantial share of energy
demand of society?
Deployment of new technologies (RES) –
governmental perspective
1) Inception phase – creates a climate allowing investment in
early projects.
2) Take off phase - managing support policy costs.
3) Consolidation phase – to integrate mature technology to the
system (RES can no longer be considered in isolation due to
their impacts across the whole energy/power system that needs
to acomodate them).
7
RES
deployment
curve
Inception phase
Renewable power capacity and annual growth rate, 2000-2015.
• Targets combined with financial and regulatory support to
create market for RES and decrease investment risks.
Take off phase - barriers
Sector and
barriers
Cost barriers Regulatory
barriers
Market entry
barriers
Technical
barriers
ELECTRIC
ITY
Relatively high initial
capital costs for
some technologies;
subsidies for fossil
fuels and nuclear
power; unfavorable
power pricing rules
Non-existent or
insuficient legal
framework for
independent
producers;
restrictions on
siting,
construction and
transmission
access; arduous
permitting
processes and
utility
interconnection
requirements;
inadequate market
operation rules
Lack of access to
credit; higher cost
of
capital due to lack
of
experience;
perceived
technology
performance
uncertainty
and risk; lack of
technical
or commercial
skill and
information
Integrating high
shares of variable
renewable energy
(VRE) into
existing grids
Take off phase - barriers
Sector and
barriers
Cost barriers Regulatory
barriers
Market entry
barriers
Technical barriers
HEAT High initial capital
costs compared to
well-established
conventional
systems, such as
gas boilers;
subsidies for
fossil fuels
Arduous
permitting
processes
Lack of access to
credit and financial
incentives; lack of
local technical or
commercial skills;
insuficient public
awareness of available
technologies and
the broad spectrum
of application options
Integrating renewable
heating and
cooling systems
into existing
infrastructure;
distributed nature
of consumption;
fragmentation of
heating and cooling
markets
Take off phase - barriersSector and
barriers
Cost barriers Regulatory
barriers
Market entry
barriers
Technical
barriers
TRANSPORT
(BIOFUELS)
Higher costs
relative
to conventional
fuels,
in some markets
Lack of government
policy to set up
charging
infrastructure;
cumbersome
permitting process
for setting up
charging stations
Immaturity of
third-generation
technology
TRANSPORT
(ELECTRICIT
Y CARS)
High cost for
renewable energy
technologies in
personal vehicle
transport relative to
existing
technologies
Lack of
government
policy to set up
charging
infrastructure;
cumbersome
permitting
process
for setting up
charging
stations
Lack of energy
infrastructure
(e.g., electric vehicle
(EV) charging
stations)
Immaturity of
technology;
relatively short
vehicle range
Economy of RES
Economic barriers - present when the cost of a technology is
above the cost of competing alternatives. Mainly related to
• externalities of conventional technologies not internalized
• subsidies for conventional technologies
• level of technology maturity
Global subsidies for fossil-fuel consumption
and renewables
Current situation – RES consumption in major
markets
• 23% of electricity.
• 5.5% of heat.
• 4% of transportation.
Current situation - electricity
• For the first time RES accounted for more than 2/3 of global
net electricity capacity growth.
• Solar expanded the most quickly at 97 GW of addictions (over
half in China).
• China is responsible for 41% (438 GW) of global expansion.
• EU the second-largets growth market (124 GW operation in
2018-2023).
• Uncertain forecast in USA due to the changes in the federal tax
code, trade policies etc.
• India is to double its capacity over 2018-2023 (PV, onshore
wind)
Annual net electricity capacity additions by
source
Capacity growth by country/region
Current situation - transport
• Global conventional biofuel production expected to grow from
143 bn. litres in 2017 to 165 bn. litres in 2023.
• The Asia-Pacific region and China combined responsible for
half of production growth (security of supply). Weakening
support in the EU.
• Advanced biofuels (non-food crops, waste, resiudal feedstocks)
expected to deliver 1.4 – 2.3 bn. litres in 2023.
• Biofuel demand in aviation sector is growing, production
remains low.
Global conventinal biofuel production (L) and
indexed road transport fuel demand (R)
Current situation – heating /cooling
• Heat account for over half of total final energy consumption
(heating houses, water, cooking, drying…). RES (excl.
traditional biomas) only 10%.
• Bioenergy penetration higher in industry than in buildings.
• RES electricity for heat is expected to have the 2nd largest
absolute growth by 2023.
Fuel shares in global heat consumption, 2017
Illustrative daily profile of space cooling load
and solar PV output
Consolidation phase - 1) auctions
Utility-scale renewable capacity growth by remuneration type.
Consolidation phase – 2) competitiveness of
RES
LCOE ranges for new utility-scale instalations by commissioning date
Consolidation phase – 3) solar PV
perspectives
Solar PV capacity growth and total generation
Consolidation phase – 4) solar PV
perspectives
Residental electricity prices compared with average residental LCOE, 2017
Consolidation phase – 5) integration of VRE
• Traditional systems built around base- and peak-load source.
• With VRE being pivotal part of the system flexibility is valued
highly.
Consolidation phase
RES and climate change
• Could RES be the pillar of the (global) energy system?
• What is the growth potential?
= are they ready to meet some substantial share of energy
demand of society?
Sources
• ODI (2017): Phase-out 2020: Monitoring Europe´s fossil fuel
subsidies
• IRENA (2017): Rethinking Energy 2017