A Green New Deal for Europe: Decarbonization by 2050 Prof. Jeffrey D. Sachs University Professor at Columbia University Director of the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network Forum on Sustainable Development Academy of Public Investments Prague, November 22, 2019 CHINA’S CO2 EMISSIONS More than half of the world’s largest cities are on the coastline. Flames rise as a wildfire burns in the town of Rafina, near Athens, 23 July 2018. Photo by Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP/Getty Image Photo by Valerie Gache/AFP/Getty Cars blocked at closed National Road as wildfire rages in Kineta, west of Athens. Photo by Angelos Tzortzinis/AFP/Getty Charred cars lined a roadway in the village of Mati, east of Athens, July 24. Data source: National Interagency Fire Center 1960-2016: https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/fireInfo_stats_totalFires.html GOAL: DECARBONIZATION BY 2050 So What’s Wrong? US, Canada, Russia, China, India, GCC, Australia, Indonesia Account for Roughly Three-Quarters of Fossil Fuel Production They fight for market share and profits The governments empower their companies or their companies run the governments or the oil companies and governments are the same thing! Oil & Gas Campaign Contributions by Cycle and Party The Way Forward All countries should set bold 2050 Decarbonization Plans The European Union should engage China, India, Africa and Latin America in Decarbonization Partnerships The Financial Industry must understand that new Oil, Gas, and Coal Investments will be Stranded Assets Roadmap to Decarbonization Every Signatory Should Prepare a 2050 Roadmap (Article 4.19 of the Paris Climate Agreement) by 2020 2050 Roadmap Should Include • Power • Transport • Buildings • Industry • Land Use • Adaptation, Resilience, Disaster Preparedness Five Pillars of Decarbonization 1. Zero-Carbon Electricity (Wind, Solar, Hydro, Nuclear, CCS, Ocean, Geothermal, other) 2. Sustainable Land-Use and Agriculture (End deforestation, restore degraded lands, plant-based proteins diets) 3. Electrification of Transport, Buildings, Industry (Battery EVs, heat pumps, induction heating, other) 4. Synthetic Fuels made with Zero-Carbon Electricity (Hydrogen, Synthetic Liquids and Green Methane) 5. Energy Efficiency (Design, Materials, Behaviors) The Relatively Easy Sectors: Zero-Carbon Power Light-Duty Vehicles: Electric Zero-Emission New Buildings The Relatively Hard Sectors: Zero-Emission Old Buildings Heavy-Duty Vehicles: H2, Synthetics Shipping: H2, Synthetics Aviation: Electricity, Synthetics, Biofuels Steel: H2, Electrification Petrochemicals: CCS, reuse, others Cement: Materials substitution Agriculture: Diet, Land Use  Timelines for phasing out fossil-fuel-related capital stocks  Allocations of responsibilities across Brussels, member states, and local governments  Carbon pricing, including carbon taxes, feed-in tariffs, and renewable energy auctions  Fiscal incentives for utilities and other sectors (such as EIB guarantees on loans to utilities to expand zero-carbon capacity)  Horizon Europe R&D outlays for the hard technologies  Public investments in interstate transmission, charging stations, catenary lines, government fleets and buildings, and other public infrastructure  Financing for a fair transition (job retraining, income supplements, regional development)  Public financing for building retrofits  Leadership of the Paris Agreement ELEMENTS OF A EUROPEAN GREEN NEW DEAL PLAN The Asian Drama Gigatons CO2 Percent Asia 17.43 56.1% America 7 22.5% Europe 5.05 16.2% Africa 1.16 3.7% Oceania 0.44 1.4% World 31.08 100.0% Asian Decarbonization Asia is profoundly vulnerable to heat waves, droughts, floods, and extreme storms. Asian decarbonization will also bring about vast co-benefits of public health, especially through reduced air pollution. Global Energy Interconnection (GEIDCO)