Germany and the Visegrad countries within the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy: promising partners after Brexit? Jana Urbanovská, Martin Chovančík, Stanislava Brajerčíková Masaryk University, Czech Republic The paper was written as part of the project “Germany and Out-of-Area Military Operations: Civilian Power, Trading State or Middle Power?” Registration number 17-12243S, supported by the Czech Science Foundation. INTRODUCTION •Brexit is expected to have large implications for European security • •The significance of German leadership will rise X a lot of reluctance à importance of international institutions, int. cooperation and partnerships • •Partnership between Germany and V4 countries within CSDP •Is it viable vis-à-vis Brexit? •Has the defence cooperation between Germany and V4 countries intensified? • •V4 countries as supportive partners for Germany? •Role of path-dependency •A way to balance France •Central Europe’s pivot to Germany (interrupted by the migration crisis) • •Defence as the area where V4 countries most visible as a united group •Rise of bilateral defence relations • MINILATERALISM AS A CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK •Minilateralism as a “trendy” mode of international cooperation • •Aims to “bring to the table the smallest possible number of countries needed to have the largest possible impact on solving a particular problem” (Naim 2009) •A “process of a small group of interested parties working together … in tackling subjects deemed too complicated to be addressed appropriately at the multilateral level” (Moret 2016) •Based on “purpose-built partnerships” (Patrick 2015) •“Functional multilateralism” where “coalitions of the willing and relevant” aim to address a certain part of governance as a first step in solving a larger problem (Haass 2010) • •CSDP offering space for minilateral initiatives (EU battlegroups, “pooling and sharing”, PESCO, …) • •Can recent strengthening of bilateral defence relations between Germany and some V4 countries go beyond bilateralism? • • GERMANY AND V4 COUNTRIES WITHIN THE CSDP: 1) EU BATTLEGROUPS •Examples of minilateral formations in CSDP – cooperation within established groups of states under the leadership of a “framework nation” • •Fruitful ground for a concurrent engagement of Germany and V4 countries • •BG I-2010 (Poland, Germany, Slovakia, Lithuania, Latvia) •German-Czech-Austrian BG II-2012 (Germany, Austria, Czech Republic, Croatia, North Macedonia, Ireland) •Weimar BG I-2013 (Germany, Poland, France) •German-Czech-Austrian BG II-2016 (Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands) •German-Czech-Austrian BG II-2020 (Germany, Austria, the Czech Republic, Croatia, Finland, Ireland, Latvia, Netherlands, Sweden) • •+ German operational headquarters for the Czech-Slovak BG II-2009 •+ Appreciation of the V4 BG (I-2016, II-2019) by Germany • • • • 2) PESCO •PESCO projects led by Germany with a participation of V4 countries PESCO projects CR Hu Po Sl European Union Training Mission Competence Centre X EUFOR Crisis Response Operation Core European Medium Altitude Long Endurance Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems X European Medical Command X X Network of logistic Hubs in Europe and support to Operations X X X Geo-meteorological and Oceanographic Support Coordination Element •Typical purpose-built, output-oriented partnerships • •Established by “those Member States whose military capabilities fulfil higher criteria and which have made more binding commitments to one another in this area with a view to the most demanding missions” (Lisbon Treaty, 42(6)) • •Germany and France – main drivers X differing visions • 3) DEFENCE INDUSTRIAL COOPERATION •German-V4 Group defence industrial cooperation – little viable • •POLAND: major obstacle of a Germany-V4 cooperation; resisting EU strategic autonomy, close ties to the US à unintegrated into European defence industry; disputes over national policies •HUNGARY: increasingly linked to Germany; a way to overcome German reservations over internal policy matters? •CZECH REPUBLIC: interconnected economies suggesting high feasibility in defence projects X not materialized so far, though some promising departures •SLOVAKIA: engagement with Germany non-existent despite all rhetoric; partnership with the CR as the most viable link in minilateral cooperation • •Ongoing bilateral cooperation •Nascent minilateral cooperation as an upgrade of existing bilateral ties (but only very specific and underdeveloped) • • • IMPLICATIONS OF BREXIT FOR GERMANY-V4 DEFENCE COOPERATION •Brexit is expected to shift the balance of power in the EU à strengthening of German leadership •For V4 countries, Brexit means both… •… new challenges •… new opportunities •The position of V4 countries will depend on a proper rearrangement of their relationships with Germany and on strengthening their pro-European attitudes •The potential for cooperation far greater than in the economic field •Security and defence policy offer a lot of opportunities to strengthen mutual relations •V4 countries extend the area of EU’s security to the East – much appreciated by Germany • • CONCLUSION •The record of utilizing the minilateral form of cooperation among Germany and V4 countries in CSDP is mixed • •1) EU battlegroups – cooperation on several occasions X no sign of an intensification since the in/out referendum •2) PESCO – V4 countries present in 4 German-led projects à a viable platform for minilateral cooperation •3) Defence industrial cooperation – yes, but bilateral approaches perceived to be more effective than minilateral cooperation • •Generally, Brexit accelerated European defence cooperation in many ways, BUT • •CSDP has not turned out to be the primary platform for V4 countries to cultivate minilateral cooperation – when compared to NATO (FNC) •Other competing minilateral formats of cooperation (e.g. CEDC) • •Prevailing preference of bilateral ties •Minilateral cooperation in a nascent phase • • REFERENCES •AMO. 2017. 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