CDSn4001: Conflict Analysis Future of war January 12, 2020 Miriam Matejova Agenda • Final exam reminder • What is the future of war and war prevention? • Course Q&A Final exam • Answer the question • Explain your answer (don’t assume the reader knows what you are talking about) – If you make a statement, explain its logic, why you believe the statement is true • Define key terms • Correctly link the authors to their theories/arguments • Provide accurate examples and explain how the examples fit the theory • Do NOT copy/paste text into your answers and reference your sources! • Answer the question Why do wars end? • Spread of democracy, • Economic interdependence, • Nuclear weapons, • Commitment to peaceful process regardless of regime type, • Credible commitments, • Addressing root causes? Credible commitment theory • Parties don’t reach cooperative solutions, because they can’t commit themselves credibly to act (in advance) in agreed ways. – Actor’s promise to behave cooperatively might not be believed by others if promises cannot be enforced. – Actors make promises but have no intention of upholding them, or – An actor may sincerely want to promise to cooperate, but in the future, it may be rational to break a promise if an opportunity arises. How to make commitments credible? • Make reneging on the agreement costly by raising the political costs of defection – Audience costs – sovereign states raise their audience costs if they want to increase the credibility of their commitments Main questions • What are “root causes” of conflict? – Triggers vs structural conditions • Does addressing the root causes of conflict help prevent wars? Why? • Can we disentangle violence from war?