SELECTING AMERICAN PRESIDENTS BY ACCIDENT OR DESIGN? A) The early 1970s a) Candidate selection re: Commission on Party Structure and Delegate Selection (McGovern-Fraser Commission) for 1972. 1) Required written party rules governing delegate selection; 2) All delegates required to stand for election (75% by congressional districts/10% by state level appointment; 3) Required wide-spread notice that the process was taking place at places of easy access and at uniform dates and times; 4) Affirmative action for blacks, women, and young people (>age 30); 5) Proportional representation. Tinkering and coping: 6) Three month window and front-loading of the election calendar— —Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary —Super Tuesday —Continued movement toward a defacto national primary election b) Public funding of presidential elections beginning with 1976. B) Combined impact a) Background or demographic characteristics of national convention delegates was unchanged, even exaggerated! 1) Pushed Democratic AND Republican national convention delegates to the extremes of their respective national political parties. 2) Take major political issues in 1980 and 1988. b) VOTER TURNOUT problem for primary elections and political party caucuses v. national general elections. C) The example of 1992 a) Republican President George H.W. Bush, the most popular president in the history of public opinion polling through that time, and 89% approval rating on how he was doing his job between 28 February and 3 March 1991. Scared out many substantial Democratic presidential candidates (e.g., U.S. Senators Al Gore and John D. Rockefeller IV; New York Governor Mario Cuomo; U.S. Representative Richard Gebhardt; and Rev. Jesse Jackson, to name a few) and it opened the door for Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton v. U.S. Senators Paul Tsongas (MA) and Bob Kerrey (NEB), former California Governor Jerry Brown and Virginia Governor L. Douglas Wilder. b) Why Bill Clinton? 1) Gennifer Flowers revelation on January 21, 1992, in the tabloid Star; ROTC promise to attend the University of Arkansas, but he never did attend as revealed in The Wall Street Journal on February 6, 1992; but... 2) "Ground rules" for media reporting had changed from candidate to accuser bearing the burden of proof; 3) Public attention was focused on the economy; 4) The election calendar worked to his advantage— —January 21,1992, filing deadline to get on the ballot had passed in 15 states with 28% of the Democratic National Convention delegates; —February 6, 1992, the filing deadline for ballot access had passed in 18 states with 40% of the Democratic National Convention delegates before Clinton acknowledged ROTC report on February 12. 5) Adversity actually helped Bill Clinton because the Gennifer Flowers allegation gave him NAME RECOGNITION without content, as he soared to 86% among all voters and to 89% among Democrats and Democratic leaning potential voters. —Election support rose from 17 to 42% in three weeks, giving Bill Clinton a commanding lead! D) A Democrat in the White House, and the election process will not change. Why? a) Because Americans do not participate in the most important phase of the presidential candidate selection process, the primary elections and caucuses; b) Because the presidential candidate selection reforms cannot be reversed by the Democratic Party because they were written into the state laws governing the nomination process; and c) Because the election of delegates IS DEMOCRATIC. CONCLUSION: The broader pattern of political party support (i.e., increasing numbers of Republican Party affiliates from the South and equally increasing numbers of Democratic Party affiliates from the Northeast) will continue into the future and favor Republican candidates because its region of greatest support is growing while that for Democrats continues to decline in population. WE DEMANDED A REFORMED PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE SELECTION PROCESS; WE HAVE DONE IT TO OURSELVES WITH NO TURNING BACK! 1992 Iowa New Hampshire Maine South Dakota Colorado Georgia Idaho Maryland Minnesota Utah Nominating Season at a Glance Delegate Count D R 57 24 30 20 23 23 22 19 (It -3 W 3 •"3 Form of Delegate Selection Open Caucus t Open Primary t Open Caucus t Closed Primary Filing Deadline Dec. 20 Dec. 31 54 88 24 79 87 28 80 37 52 22 42 32 27 35 Open Primary f ) Open Primary Open Caucus (D)/Open Primary (R) '20.5%-D/ Closed Primary 11 LV--K °Pen CaLJCUS "•^a K Open Caucus Open Caucus (D)/Open Primary (R) Jan. 2 April 27 * Jan. 9 (D)/Dec. 23 (R) Jan. 28' Feb. 14 1992 Date of Main Democratic Event 1-8 Feb. 10 1 0 Feb. 18 Feb. 23 Feb. 25 Alabama California 18% 62 383 38 201 18% Open Primary Closed Primary OUT ildir March 3 March 3 March 3 March 3 March 3 March 3 March 3 North Dakota 20 17 Open Caucus April 10 • March 5-1S , Arizona 47 37 Closed Caucus Jan. 6 March 7 South Carolina 49 36 Open Primary Feb. 1 (D)/Jan. 31 (R) March 7 Wyoming \ 19 20 Closed Caucus March 7 Nevada 24 21 Closed Caucus March 8 3 Delaware . 19 19 Closed Caucus March 10 Florida 1S0 97 £ Closed Primary March 10 Hawaii »>-, 26 14 A 1*7 r> / Closed Caucus Feb. 2 March 10 Louisiana (0 69 38 41/.-D/ closed Primary Jan. 10 March 10 Massachusetts If) 106 38 Open Primary t Jan. 3 March 10 Mississippi 4) 3 44 33 Open Primary Jan. 15 March 10 Missouri 66 47 Open Caucus March 10 Oklahoma U 53 34 Closed Primary Jan. 15 March 10 Rhode Island QJ P. 28 15 Open Primary t Jan. 7 March 10 Tennessee 3 in 77 45 Open Primary Jan. 7 March 10 Texas 214 121 Open Primary & Caucus (D)/Open Primary (R) Jan. 10 March 10 Puerto Rico 57 14 Open Primary March 15 Illinois 183 85 Open Primary Jan. 28 March 17 Michigan 148 72 Closed Primary Jan. 10 March 17 Connecticut 61 35 Closed Primary Feb. 7 March 24 3 ~ Vermont s 20 19 Open Caucus March 31 Alaska 18 19 Closed Caucus (D)/Open Caucus (R) f April 2 r Kansas 42 30 Open Primary f Feb. 12 April 7 New York 12 .5% 268 100 9% Closed Primary Feb. 6 (RVFeb. 13 (D} April 7 Wisconsin 91 35 Open Primary Feb. 18 April 7 Virginia 92 55 Open Caucus April 11 Pennsylvania 188 91 Closed Primary Feb. 18 April 28 District of Columbia 30 14 Closed Primary March 6 May 5 Indiana 87 51 Open Primary March 6 May 5 North Carolina 93 57 Closed Primary (D)/Open Primary (R) | Feb. 4 May 5 Ohio 167 83 Open Primary Feb. 20 May 5 Nebraska 31 24 Closed Primary March 13 May 12 West Virginia 3S 18 Closed Primary (D)/Open Primary (R) j Feb. 1 May 12 Oregon 53 23 Closed Primary March 10 May 19 Arkansas 43 27 Open Primary March 31 May 26 Kentucky 61 35 Closed Primary Jan. 28 May 26 Kerry Harki 19 Isonga April 3 June 2 March 19(D)/March 20 (R) June 2 Montana New Jersey 22 117 20 60 New Mexico U.S. territories Democrats abroad Unassigned 33 25 Open Primary Open Primary t March 19 April 9 June 2 June 2 Closed Primary No later than March 16 June 2 12 9 265 12 TOTAL 4,287 2,209 f Indtpendenii may participate; voters registered by party may participate only in their party's primary or ecucuj. 'Primary filing deadline (Idaho primary. May 26, Mtnneiota primary, April 7. North Dakota primary, June 9. Washington pnmary. May 19) NOTE; Delegate count as 0/ January 1992; subject to change CQ, FEBRUARY 1. 1092 — 259 10/8/2015 Important dates in the 2016 presidential race - Ballotpedia PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS THE ROAD TO THE WHITE HOUSE This page tracks important dates throughout the 2016 presidential election cycle, including primaries, caucuses and conventions, filing deadlines and campaign finance reporting Contents [show] deadlines. Candidate registration and financial disclosure Federal candidacy registration The Federal Election Commission (FEC) requires those running for the U.S. House,Senate or presidency to file a Statement of Candidacy form within 15 days raising the first 55,000 in campaign funding. The Statement of Candidacy form allows a candidate's campaign committee to engage in fundraising and spending of the campaign funds. Within 10 days of the Statement of Candidacy submission, the Statement of Organization form must be submitted to the FEC.I1) Campaign finance disclosures Presidential candidates, like Congressional candidates, must file regular campaign finance disclosure reports, depending on the extent of the committee's fundraising. If the committee has raised or anticipates raising or spending a total of $100,000 by the end of a calendar year, the committee will file monthly campaign finance reports in the following year. If the committee does not raise, spend or anticipate raising or spending that much, they must only file quarterly reports to the FEC.'2' Important campaign dates _ Iowa caucus The Democratic National Committee's Rules and Bylaws Committee chose to tentatively hold the Iowa caucus on February 1, 2016.'3' New Hampshire primary The DNC's proposed date for the New Hampshire primary was February 9, 2016.13' Democratic National Convention See a/so: Democratic National Convention, 2016 Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee {DNC), announced on February 12, 2015, that Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, will host the Convention during the week of July 25, 2016. M According to the National Journal, the initial list of possible host cities for the DNC were Birmingham, Alabama, Brooklyn,New York, Columbus, Ohio, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, and Phoenix, Arizona.I5' Republican National Convention See also: Republican National Convention, 2016 The Republican National Committee (RNC) will hold the 2016 convention on July 18-21, 2016. "The convention will be held significantly earlier than previous election cycles, allowing access to crucial general election funds earlier than ever before to give our nominee a strong advantage heading into Election Day," Priebus said.'6' 2016 Presidential Election General Election Date Novembers, 2016 Declared candidates 0$ Democratic Lincoln Chafee ■ Hillary Clinton 'Lawrence Lessig ■ Martin O'Malley -Bernie Sanders • Jim Webb Democratic Convention Democratic Primary fkf Republican Job B jsh • Ben Carson • Chris Christie 'Ted Cruz • Carly Fiorina • Jim Gilmore -Lindsay Graham ■ Mike Huckabee -Bobby Jindal • John Kasich • George Pataki • Rand Paul • Marco Rubio • Rick Santorum • Donald Trump Republican Convention Republican Primary 2016 election coverage Presidential debates • Important campaign dates • Polling ■ Candidates -Ratings and scorecards • Straw polls -Election by state State primary dates data:text/html;charset=utf-8,%3Cdiv%20class%3D% 1/1 2016 Presidential Primaries and Caucuses for Elected National Convention Delegates by Filing Deadlines State Date Filing Deadline Primarv/Caucus Type Democratic* Republican** South Carolina February 20, 2016 September 30, 2015 Republican Primary Open J 31 Arkansas March 1, 2016 November 9, 2015 Primary Open 32 22 Texas March 1, 2016 November 10, 2015 Primary Open 208 118 Louisiana March 5, 2016 November 20, 2015 Primary Closed 54 28 New Hampshire February 9, 2016 November 27, 2015 Primary Mixed 24 16 Illinois March 15, 2016 November 30, 2015 Primary Open 160 64 Tennessee March 1, 2016 December 1, 2015 Primary Open 68 37 Oklahoma March 1, 2016 December 2, 2015 Primary Closed 38 25 South Carolina February 27, 2016 December 7, 2015 Democratic Primary Open 51 Idaho March 8, 2016 December 9, 2015 Republican Primary Closed 16 Florida March 15, 2016 December 15, 2015 Primary Closed 207 91 Virginia March 1, 2016 December 17, 2015 Primary Open 95 43 Michigan March 8, 2016 December 20, 2015 Primary Closed 133 52 North Carolina March 15, 2016 December 29, 2015 Primary Mixed 107 49 Missouri March 15, 2016 December 30, 2015 Primary Open 15 34 Nevada February 20, 2016 January 1, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 31 Georgia March 1, 2016 January 2, 2016 Primary Open 98 52 Massachusetts March 1, 2016 January 2, 2016 Primary Mixed 95 37 Ohio March 15, 2016 January 2, 2016 Primary Mixed 148 58 Minnesota March 1, 2016 January 4, 2016 Caucus Open 78 34 Vermont March 1, 2016 January 4, 2016 Primary Open 15 13 Alabama March 1, 2016 January 6, 2016 Primary Open 52 31 Kentucky March 5, 2016 January 7, 2016 Republican Caucus Closed 28 Hawaii March 26, 2016 January 8, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 22 Nevada February 23, 2016 January 9, 2016 Republican Caucus Closed 22 Colorado March 1, 2016 January 9, 2016 Caucus Closed 64 31 Mississippi March 8, 2016 January 9, 2016 Primary Open 36 22 Iowa February 1, 2016 January 22, 2016 Caucus Closed 46 22 Rhode Island April 26, 2016 January 23, 2016 Primary Mixed 22 16 Kentucky May 17, 2016 January 26, 2016 Primary Closed 47 28 Alaska March 26, 2016 January 29, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 14 Kansas March 5, 2016 January 30, 2016 Caucus Closed 33 22 West Virginia May 10, 2015 January 30, 2016 Primary Mixed 26 19 Alaska March 1, 2016 January 31, 2016 Republican Mixed Closed 13 Nebraska March 5, 2016 February 1, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 26 Wisconsin April 5, 2016 February 2, 2016 Primary Open 79 34 Arizona March 22, 2016 February 3, 2016 Primary Open 63 37 Maryland April 26, 2016 February 3, 2016 Primary Closed 78 34 Utah March 22, 2016 February 5, 2016 Caucus Closed 24 22 Indiana May 3, 2016 February 5, 2016 Primary Open 70 37 Hawaii March 8, 2016 February 16, 2016 Republican Caucus Closed 16 Pennsylvania April 26, 2016 February 16, 2016 Primary Closed 160 64 Maine March 6, 2016 February 21, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 25 Nebraska May 10, 2016 February 25, 2016 Republican Primary Closed 1 19 Washington March 26, 2016 February 26, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 86 Delaware April 26, 2016 February 26, 2016 Primary Closed 17 13 New York April 19, 2016 March 1, 2016 Primary Closed 233 91 Connecticut April 26, 2016 March 7, 2016 Primary Closed 51 25 Montana June 7, 2016 March 7, 2016 Primary Open 15 13 Oregon May 17, 2016 March 8, 2916 Primary Closed 52 25 Wyoming April 9, 2016 March 10, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 13 Idaho March 22, 2016 March 14, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 20 Washington, DC June 14, 2016 March 15, 2016 Primary Closed 17 16 New Mexico June 7, 2016 March 17, 2016 Primary Closed 29 19 California June 7, 2016 March 25, 2016 Primary Closed 405 169 South Dakota June 7, 2016 March 29, 201 Primary Closed 15 13 New Jersey June 7, 2016 April 4, 2016 Primary Mixed 110 46 North Dakota June 7, 2016 May 2, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 14 Maine March 5, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 16 North Dakota March 1, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 6 Wyoming March 1, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 13 Washington March 5, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 40 American Samoa March 8, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Open 6 Guam March 12, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 6 Northern Marianas March 12, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Closed 6 6 Virgin Islands March 12, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Open 6 Puerto Rico March 13, 2016 TBD Republican Primary Open 20 Northern Marianas March 15, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 6 Guam May 7, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Closed 6 Puerto Rico June 5, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Open 51 Virgin Islands June 5, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Open 6 American Samoa March 1, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Open 6 6 3696 1898 TBD = To Be Determined Democratic Republican December 30, 2015 1,192 (32%) 626 (22%) January 9, 2016 1,831 (50%) 954 (33%) 2016 Presidential Primaries and Caucuses for Elected National Convention Delegates by Contest Date State Date Filing Deadline Primary/Caucus Type Democratic* Republican** Iowa February 1, 2016 January 22, 2016 Caucus Closed 46 22 New Hampshire February 9, 2016 November 27, 2015 Primary Mixed 24 16 Nevada February 20, 2016 January 1, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 31 South Carolina February 20, 2016 September 30, 2015 Republican Primary Open 31 Nevada February 23, 2016 January 9, 2016 Republican Caucus Closed J 22 South Carolina February 27, 2016 December 7, 2015 Democratic Primary Open 51 Alabama March 1, 2016 January 6, 2016 Primary Open 52 31 Alaska March 1, 2016 January 31, 2016 Republican Mixed Closed 13 American Samoa March 1, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Open 6 6 Arkansas March 1, 2016 November 9, 2015 Primary Open 32 22 Colorado March 1, 2016 January 9, 2016 Caucus Closed 64 31 Georgia March 1, 2016 January 2, 2016 Primary Open 98 52 Massachusetts March 1, 2016 January 2, 2016 Primary Mixed 95 37 Minnesota March 1, 2016 January 4, 2016 Caucus Open 78 34 North Dakota March 1, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 6 Oklahoma March 1, 2016 December 2, 2015 Primary Closed 38 25 Tennessee March 1, 2016 December 1, 2015 Primary Open 68 37 Texas March 1, 2016 November 10, 2015 Primary Open 208 118 Vermont March 1, 2016 January 4, 2016 Primary Open 15 13 Virginia March 1, 2016 December 17, 2015 Primary Open 95 43 Wyoming March 1, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 13 Kentucky March 5, 2016 January 7, 2016 Republican Caucus Closed 28 Kansas March 5, 2016 January 30, 2016 Caucus Closed 33 22 Louisiana March 5, 2016 November 20, 2015 Primary Closed 54 28 Maine March 5, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 16 Nebraska March 5, 2016 February 1, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 26 Washington March 5, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 40 Maine March 6, 2016 February 21, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 25 American Samoa March 8, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Open 6 Hawaii March 8, 2016 February 16, 2016 Republican Caucus Closed 16 Idaho March 8, 2016 December 9, 2015 Republican Primary Closed 16 Michigan March 8, 2016 December 20, 2015 Primary Closed 133 52 Mississippi March 8, 2016 January 9, 2016 Primary Open 36 22 Guam March 12, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 6 Northern Marianas March 12, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Closed 6 6 Virgin Islands March 12, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Open J 6 Puerto Rico March 13, 2016 TBD Republican Primary Open 20 Florida March 15, 2016 December 15, 2015 Primary Closed 207 91 Illinois March 15, 2016 November 30, 2015 Primary Open 160 64 Missouri March 15, 2016 December 30, 2015 Primary Open 15 34 North Carolina March 15, 2016 December 29, 2015 Primary Mixed 107 49 Northern Marianas March 15, 2016 TBD Republican Caucus Closed 6 Ohio March 15, 2016 January 2, 2016 Primary Mixed 148 58 Arizona March 22, 2016 February 3, 2016 Primary Open 63 37 Idaho March 22, 2016 March 14, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 20 Utah March 22, 2016 February 5, 2016 Caucus Closed 24 22 Alaska March 26, 2016 January 29, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 14 Hawaii March 26, 2016 January 8, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 22 Washington March 26, 2016 February 26, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 86 Wisconsin April 5, 2016 February 2, 2016 Primary Open 79 34 Wyoming April 9, 2016 March 10, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 13 New York April 19, 2016 March 1, 2016 Primary Closed 233 91 Connecticut April 26, 2016 March 7, 2016 Primary Closed 51 25 Delaware April 26, 2016 February 26, 2016 Primary Closed 17 13 Maryland April 26, 2016 February 3, 2016 Primary Closed 78 34 Pennsylvania April 26, 2016 February 16, 2016 Primary Closed 160 64 Rhode Island April 26, 2016 January 23, 2016 Primary Mixed 22 16 Indiana May 3, 2016 February 5, 2016 Primary Open 70 37 Guam May 7, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Closed 6 Nebraska May 10, 2016 February 25, 2016 Republican Primary Closed 19 West Virginia May 10, 2015 January 30, 2016 Primary Mixed 26 19 Kentucky May 17, 2016 January 26, 2016 Primary Closed 47 28 Oregon May 17, 2016 March 8, 2916 Primary Closed 52 25 Puerto Rico June 5, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Open 51 Virgin Islands June 5, 2016 TBD Democratic Caucus Open 6 California June 7, 2016 March 25, 2016 Primary Closed 405 169 Montana June 7, 2016 March 7, 2016 Primary Open 15 13 New Jersey June 7, 2016 April 4, 2016 Primary Mixed 110 46 New Mexico June 7, 2016 March 17, 2016 Primary Closed 29 19 North Dakota June 7, 2016 May 2, 2016 Democratic Caucus Closed 14 South Dakota June 7, 2016 March 29, 201 Primary Closed 15 13 District of Columbia June 14, 2016 March 15, 2016 Primary Closed 17 16 Total 3696 1898 Sources: Important dates in the 2016 presidential race - Ballotpedia (accessed October 17, 2016); http://ballotpedia.org/important dates in the 2016 presidential race Kyle Kondik and Geoffrey Skelley, Sabato's Crystal Ball (accessed October 17, 2015); http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/the-real-presidential-deadlines/ *The Green Papers: Democratic Detailed Delegate Allocation - 2016 (accessed October 17, 2015) http://thegreenpapers.com/P16/D-Alloc.phtml **The Green Papers: Republican Detailed Delegate Allocation - 2016 (accessed October 17, 2015) http://thegreenpapers.com/P16/R-Alloc.phtml Democratic National Convention Delegates = 4,483; Republican National Convention Delegates = 2,470 Democrats Republicans l-Mar-2016 1,001(22%) 572 (23%) 5-Mar-2016 1,114(25%) 706 (29%) 8-Mar-2016 1,308(29%) 818 (33%) 15-Mar-2016 1,951(44%) 1,158(47%) 26-Mar-2016 2,180(49%) 1,217(49%) Estimated Allocation Sorted Alphabetically Rank (sort) State Pledged Delegate Votes Unpledged Delegate Votes (sort) Total Delegate Votes District Delegate Votes At-Largo Delegate Votes PLEO Delegate Votes (sort) Total Pledged Delegate Votes DNC Members Senate Hoi iso Governor Distinguished Party Leaders (sort) Total Unpledged Delegate Votes 1 Alabama 34 11 7 52 5 1 6 58 2 9 3 2 14 4 4 18 3 Mierican Samoa 6 6 4 4 10 4 Ai zona 41 14 8 63 8 4 12 75 5 Arkansas 21 7 4 32 5 5 37 6 California 264 88 53 405 29 2 39 1 71 476 7 Colorado 42 14 8 64 7 1 3 1 1 13 77 a Connecticut 33 11 7 51 5 2 5 1 1 14 65 9 Delaware 11 4 2 17 5 2 1 1 1 10 27 10 Democrats Abroad 12 1 13 4 4 17 11 District of Columbia 11 4 2 17 16 2 1 1 20 37 12 Florida 135 45 27 207 19 1 10 1 31 238 13 64 21 13 98 9 4 1 14 112 14 Guam 6 6 4 1 5 11 15 Hawaii 14 5 3 22 4 2 2 1 9 31 16 Idaho 13 4 3 20 4 4 24 17 Illinois 104 35 21 160 19 1 9 1 30 190 18 Maria. 46 15 9 70 6 1 2 9 79 19 Iowa 30 10 6 46 7 1 8 54 20 Kansas 22 7 4 33 4 4 37 21 Kentucky 31 10 6 47 4 1 1 6 53 22 Louisiana 35 12 7 54 6 1 7 61 23 Maine 17 5 3 25 4 1 5 30 The District (16.5 rounded to 17) and At-Large (5.5 rounded to 5) rounding was done to favor the District Delegates. 24 Marvland 51 17 10 78 17 2 7 1 27 105 25 Massachusetts 62 21 12 95 12 2 9 3 26 121 26 Mctiigan 87 29 17 133 12 2 5 19 152 27 Mnnesota 51 17 10 78 7 2 5 1 1 16 94 28 MssissipDi 23 8 5 36 4 1 5 41 29 Mssouri 49 16 10 75 8 1 2 1 1 13 88 30 Montana 10 3 2 15 5 1 1 7 22 31 Nebraska 17 6 3 26 4 1 5 31 32 Nevada 20 7 4 31 6 1 1 8 39 33 New Hampshire 16 5 3 24 5 1 1 1 8 32 34 New Jersev 72 24 14 110 8 2 6 16 126 35 NfiwWbMCO 19 6 4 29 4 2 2 1 9 38 36 New York 152 51 30 233 21 2 18 1 2 44 277 37 Nortji Carolina 70 23 14 107 10 3 13 120 38 North Dakota 9 3 2 14 4 1 5 19 39 Northern Marianas 6 6 4 1 5 11 40 Ohio 97 32 19 148 11 1 4 1 17 165 41 Oklahoma 25 8 5 38 4 4 42 42 Oregon 34 11 7 52 5 2 A 1 12 64 43 Pennsylvania 104 35 21 160 13 1 5 1 1 21 181 44 Puerto Rico 33 11 7 51 5 1 1 7 58 45 Rhode Island 14 5 3 22 4 2 2 1 9 31 46 South Carolina 33 11 7 51 5 1 6 57 47 South Dakota 10 3 2 15 4 1 5 20 48 Tennessee 44 15 9 68 6 2 1 9 77 49 Toxns 136 45 27 203 18 11 29 23? 50 Unassioned 1 1 1 51 Utah 16 5 3 24 4 4 2S 52 Vermont 10 3 2 15 4 1 1 1 1 8 23 53 Virain Islands 6 6 4 1 5 11 54 Virajnia 62 21 12 95 11 2 3 1 17 112 55 Washinoton 56 19 11 86 7 2 6 1 16 102 56 WfestWainia 17 6 3 26 7 1 1 9 35 57 Wisconsin 52 17 10 79 6 1 3 10 89 58 Vtomina 8 3 2 13 4 4 17 Totals 2,436 847 486 3,769 436 46 192 20 20 714 4,483 Republican Detailed Delegate Allocation - Z016 Sorted Alphabetically Rank (sort) State Sectoral Party Leaders Bonus Delegates fsort) Pre-Penatty SubTotal Penalty fsort) Total Delegates At-Large Delegates fsortl District Delegates President Governor US. Senate U.S. House One Chamber All Chambers 1 Alabama 10 21 3 10 1 2 1 1 1 16 50 50 2 Alaska 10 3 3 7 2 1 1 1 12 23 28 3 American Samoa 6 3 9 9 4 Arizona 10 27 3 12 1 2 1 1 1 13 58 58 5 Arkansas 10 12 3 9 1 2 1 1 1 15 40 40 6 C'.iifi.-. 10 159 3 172 172 7 10 21 3 1 1 1 3 37 37 S 10 15 3 28 28 9 Delaware 10 3 3 16 16 10 Dislrict of Columbia 16 3 19 19 11 Florida 10 81 3 1 1 1 1 1 5 99 99 12 Georaia 10 42 3 15 1 2 1 1 1 21 76 76 13 Guam 6 3 9 9 14 Hawaii 10 6 3 19 19 15 klaho 10 6 3 7 1 2 1 1 1 13 32 32 16 Illinois 10 54 3 1 1 2 69 69 17 Indiana 10 27 3 12 1 1 1 1 1 17 57 57 18 Iowa 10 12 3 1 2 1 1 5 30 30 19 Kansas 10 12 3 9 1 2 1 1 1 15 40 40 20 Kentucky 10 18 3 10 2 1 1 14 45 45 21 Louisiana 10 18 3 10 2 1 1 1 15 46 46 22 10 6 3 1 1 1 1 4 23 23 23 IVfervland 10 24 3 1 1 38 38 24 Massachusetts 10 27 3 1 1 2 42 42 25 Mchiqan 10 42 3 1 1 1 1 4 59 59 26 Mnnesota 10 24 3 1 1 38 38 27 Mississippi 10 12 3 9 2 1 1 1 14 39 39 28 Mssouri 10 24 3 11 1 1 1 1 15 52 52 29 Wbntana 10 3 3 7 1 1 1 1 11 27 27 30 Nebraska 10 9 3 8 1 2 1 1 1 14 36 36 31 Nevada 10 12 3 1 1 1 1 1 5 30 30 32 New Hamoshire 10 6 3 1 1 1 1 4 23 23 33 New Jersey 10 36 3 1 1 2 51 51 34 New Mesdco 10 9 3 1 1 2 24 24 35 New York 10 81 3 1 1 95 95 36 North Carolina 10 39 3 14 1 2 1 1 1 20 72 72 37 North Dakota 10 3 3 7 1 1 1 1 1 12 28 28 38 Northern l\ferianas 6 3 9 9 39 Ohio 10 48 3 1 1 1 1 1 5 66 66 ■10 Oklahoma 10 15 3 9 1 2 1 1 1 15 43 43 41 Crecon 10 15 3 28 28 42 Pennsylvania 10 54 3 1 1 1 1 4 71 71 43 Puerto_Riop, 20 3 23 23 44 Rhode Island 10 6 3 19 19 45 South Carolina 10 21 3 10 1 2 1 1 1 16 50 so 46 South Dakota 10 3 3 7 1 2 1 1 1 13 29 29 47 Tennessee 10 27 3 12 1 2 1 1 1 18 58 58 48 Teas 10 108 3 28 1 2 1 1 1 34 155 155 49 Utah 10 12 3 9 1 2 1 1 1 15 40 40 50 Vermont 10 3 3 16 16 51 Wain Islands 6 3 9 9 52 Virainia 10 33 3 1 1 1 3 49 49 53 Washinqton 10 30 3 1 1 44 44 54 West Virainia 10 9 3 8 1 1 1 1 12 34 34 55 Wisconsin 10 24 3 1 1 1 1 1 S 42 42 56 W^omina 10 3 3 7 1 2 1 1 1 13 29 29 Totals 560 1,305 168 247 29 55 36 39 31 437 2,470 2,470 Rank State At-Large Delegates District Delegates Party Leaders President Governor U.S. Seriate U.S. House One Chamber All Chambers Total Bonus Pre-Penatty SubTotal Penalty Total Delegates Bonus Delegate Detail Bonus delegates are awarded to states who elect Republican Senators, Republican President Sectors, Republican Governors, Republican U.S. House fvtembers, and Republican National Committee Primaries The RNC overhauled some of its rules leading into the 2016 presidential primary following what party leaders and strategists saw as a primary campaign that lasted too long, lowering 2012 candidate Mitt Romney's chances of winning in the general election. The committee voted in January 2014, by a vote of 153-9, to move the convention from the end of August, when it was held last year, to as much as two months earlier at the end of June. The 2016 convention will be held July 18-21, 2016. In order to accomplish such a change, new penalties were introduced to encourage states to hold their campaign events earlier in the year. Additionally, the system of awarding delegates in primaries was changed for primaries held before March 14, 2016. The new rules stated that no primary held before March 14 could award delegates based on the "winner-take-all" system, instead the delegates were to be distributed in proportion to each candidate's support in order to stop any candidate from essentially winning the nomination in early March 2016. RNC Chairman Reince Priebus explained the reasoning, stating, "We have been saying for months that we were no longer going to sit around and allow ourselves to slice and dice our nominee for six months."^ Debates Another strategy implemented by the RNC was lowering the number of primary debates from the 20 that took place in 2012. Those familiar with the discussions claimed the new number of Republican debates would be between six and ten, with the intention of having each of the major television networks carry at least one of the debates. The RNC also discussed the idea of adding conservatives to the panels of moderators, potentially resulting in less fiery debates with easier questions, an idea that the networks were open to working with. The final change to debates was aimed at discouraging non-sanctioned debates, by barring candidates participating in them from being a part of the sanctioned debates. While big name candidates would not likely be impacted by the change, it would potentially make it harder for lesser known candidates to break through.^ References 1. t Federal Election Commission, "Quick Answers to Candidate Questions," accessed June 12, 2014 2. t Federal Election Commission, "FEC Record: Reporting," accessed June 12, 2014 3 13.0 3.1 p0ntiCOt "DNC proposes 2016 Iowa caucus date," May 2, 2014 4. t Yahoo News, "Democrats settle on Philadelphia as site of 2016 convention," February 12, 2015 5. f National Journal, "Handicapping the Democratic Convention Sites for 2016," July 25, 2014 6. f Cleveland.com, "Dates set for Republican National Convention in Cleveland; 4-day event will run July 18-21," January 14, 2015 7. t Politico, "Republican National Committee easily passes 2016 calendar tweaks," January 24, 2014 8. t Politico, "Republicans brace for 2016 free-for-all," October 7, 2014 9. t Politico, "RNC clamps down on 2016 primary debates," May 9, 2014 Mainstream G.O.P. Field of Three Faces Brutal Delegate Math Nate Cohn, fltye Jleto gotk Cutte* Online Edition February 18, 2016, A1. Photo At a campaign event for Marco Rubio in Aiken, S.C., on Wednesday. CreditEric Thayer for The New York Times If the Republican Party remains divided for much longer, it will start getting more difficult for a mainstream candidate to win the nomination. Yet Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush and John Kasich all have incentives to stay in the race, preventing the party from getting behind one candidate. On Super Tuesday, March l, 25 percent of the delegates to the Republican national convention will be awarded. If the mainstream field hasn't been narrowed by that point, it will become very hard to avoid serious damage to the candidate who ultimately emerges as the party's anointed favorite. The top mainstream candidate could easily fall more than 100 delegates short of what he might have earned in a winnowed field. He would even be in danger of earning no delegates at all in several of the largest states because of one number: 20 percent. That's the threshold for earning delegates in Texas, Tennessee, Georgia, Alabama and Vermont, which combine to award 57 percent of the delegates on Super Tuesday and 14 percent of all of the delegates in the Republican race. If candidates don't get 20 percent of the vote, they get no delegates (unless they finish in the top two of a congressional district, in which case they get a delegate). Oklahoma and Arkansas, worth an additional 13 percent of Super Tuesday delegates, have a 15 percent threshold. It is easy to imagine how none of the mainstream candidates pass this threshold. None reached 20 percent of the vote in New Hampshire; they're failing to reach 20 percent in South Carolina polls; and they might fall short again on Super Tuesday if the field doesn't narrow further. Worse still for them, a quirk in the rules would send the delegates forfeited by the mainstream candidates straight to Donald Trump and Ted Cruz. That's because most Super Tuesday states allocate their statewide delegates proportionately among the candidates who clear the threshold for earning delegates; if only two do so, they will split all of the delegates awarded statewide. The rest of the delegates are generally awarded by congressional district — usually two to the winner and one to the second-place finisher, again most likely locking out an establishment candidate in third place. The imperative to narrow the field quickly raises the stakes heading into South Carolina and Nevada, the last chance for voters to elevate one of the mainstream candidates before Super Tuesday. The difference between falling short of the threshold in these seven states and clearing it, even if only barely, is approximately 70 delegates. It's not enough to preclude a candidate like Mr. Rubio from winning the nomination. But it would require him to fare very well from that point on to finish with a majority of delegates; he might need as much as 70 percent of the outstanding delegates to win, a plausible figure given the party's delegate rules but nonetheless a daunting one. The delegate threshold challenge poses big questions for campaigns, which will have to choose between strategies that maximize delegates and those that maximize momentum. That's because many of the conservative, Southern states where the mainstream candidates need to clear delegate thresholds on Super Tuesday aren't necessarily the same states where they have the best chance to win. Texas, Alabama, Tennessee and Georgia are all fairly conservative states where Mr. Trump or Mr. Cruz will be favored. Texas is also Mr. Cruz's home state. The mainstream candidates might have a better shot to win in states like Virginia, Minnesota, Massachusetts or Colorado, where the delegate thresholds are lower (10 percent or less) or nonexistent. Supporters of Donald Trump in North Augusta, S.C., on Wednesday.CreditStephen B. Morton for The New York Times The mainstream candidates are working out this calculus: Is it worth it for a campaign to spend millions for third place and 21 percent of the vote in Texas, which would yield many more delegates than third place and 19 percent? Or is it better to spend the money to win states like Massachusetts or Virginia, where the candidates are all but assured to win a modest number of delegates and won't necessarily earn many more delegates by spending big to win? The problem is greatest for the Rubio campaign, which would seem to have the potential to clear thresholds everywhere. But it has strong incentives to win races outright in order to help narrow the field quickly after Super Tuesday. The imperative to post victories on Super Tuesday could easily tempt Mr. Rubio's team and its allies to focus on winning states, even at the risk of losing delegates in the South. That cost wouldn't be enough to prevent a candidate like Mr. Rubio from winning the nomination. The G.O.P.'s delegate rules and primaries calendar make it surprisingly easy for a candidate to make a big comeback after Super Tuesday: The states become more favorable to establishment-backed candidates, and the rules permit states to apportion more of their delegates to the winner. Here's an easy way to think about it: The potential loss of 70 delegates would be roughly equivalent to the delegates in a large winner-take-all state like Ohio (66). So a mainstream candidate can make up for his failures on Super Tuesday merely by winning a winner-take-all state that he might not have otherwise counted on. That's why the 70 delegates lost by falling short of the threshold is nothing to ignore, either. Assuming that Mr. Rubio, Mr. Cruz and Mr. Trump's support roughly followed the demographic pattern from New Hampshire and Iowa, Mr. Rubio could win an outright majority of delegates if he won around 24 percent of the vote on Super Tuesday and then did as well as Mitt Romney in 2012 for the rest of the primary season. The fact that Mr. Rubio has failed to do as well as Mr. Romney so far is reason to question whether he would be expected to do it later. A version of this article appears in print on February 18, 2016, on page A3 of the New York edition with the headline: Remaining G.O.P. Field Faces Brutal Delegate Math.