The 2020 U.S. Presidential Election and the Future of American Politics: A Movement Toward National Political Healing? Putting things into perspective: New Deal Democratic majority: • The South, traditionally Democratic since the Civil War. • Roman Catholic/ethnics brought into the Democratic party, given their recognition with the presidential nomination of Al Smith. Mobilized ethnic women. • Economic collapse/Great Depression, 24% unemployment, hence many “poor.” Coalition maintained by voters coming of age and participating. Changing base of American politics brought about by the end of WWII: • Rapid expansion of higher education—population 18-years old and older who are college graduates: 1960, 15.5%; 1970, 21.6%; 1980, 32.9%; 1990, 42.8%; 2000, 51.4%; 2004, 55.5%. College enrollments—1940, 1M; 1950, 2M; 1960, 4M; 1970, 8M; 1980, 12M; 1990, 14M; 2000, 15M; 2006, 18M (est.). • Redistribution of income (1968 constant dollars) — 1956 1968 1980 Under $10,000 82.0% 60.0% 39.0% $15,000 plus 05.0% 15.0% 34.0% • Creation of a “new middle class” based on consumption, a movement from scarcity to abundance—by the mid-1970s: • fossil fuel consumption 1 ½ times the rest of American history; • leisure time 5 times to $45 billion; in 1992 dollars the expenditures on recreation in 1980, $159 billion; in 1990, $292 billion; • toys, 500%; • TV sets, from 1/10th of 1% to 97.1% being watched 30% of one’s waking hours; by 1990 over 90% were color sets and 1992, 60%+ had cable television. Demographic groups and the political parties 1. Both political parties contained substantial numbers of “poor” and “well off” though conventional wisdom.... a) By 1956, Republicans and Democrats competing equally for the votes of the “Above Average.” b) By 1964, Republicans and Democrats competing equally for the votes of the “college educated.” c) By 1964, Republicans and Democrats competing equally for the votes of “professionals” by occupation. 2. Suburban movement of the 1950s, of today— a) Initially projected by writers of the time to benefit Republicans, but... b) Middle class became the home of the Democrats, the principal architects of the current economic policies with national government regulation; the “new middle class” grew up with the regulated economy and were the principal beneficiaries of it, hence.... 3. New Deal conflict was one between Catholics and Protestants, but, today.... a) Catholics moved up the economic ladder, became part of the “new middle class.” b) Political attachments of Catholics were holding, but.... • Generally, 60% of the Catholics considered themselves Democrats since the New Deal, but that attachment dropped to 51% in 1968 and further to 47% in 1972, the subsequent gains being among the category “independent” though there was a bounce back to 53% in 1976! • In terms of votes, though, Catholics began to desert Democratic presidential candidates in 1952 (51% R) ... 1956 and 1972 (56% R). 4. Partisan conflict shifted from religion to race—blacks v. whites—with the nationalization of the race issue WITHIN the Democratic Party, especially by the mid-1960s with the Civil Rights Acts and Voting Rights Act of 1965. Focus on the South: Civil War + Agricultural Economic Base = Democratic TRADITION, but... — Civil War relegated to the dust bin of history; a new Republican respectability emerged with the 1964 Goldwater presidential campaign. — Region moved from agriculture to INDUSTRY, from rural farm to METROPOLITAN, hence.... — abandonment of the central cities by the more affluent, both white AND black. — Only an ever weakening TRADITION helps maintain a strong STATE Democratic party/elected officials SOUTH (partisan identification) ‘37 ‘40 ‘44 ‘48 ‘52 ‘56 ‘60 ‘64 ‘68 ‘72 ‘76 ‘80 Dem 76 76 71 74 69 59 55 56 43 44 57 41 Rep 16 15 21 16 17 26 27 22 22 23 16 24 ind 08 08 08 10 14 15 18 23 35 33 28 35 — Analogy of partisanship to religion! — Impact of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, with respect to voter registration in the 11 states of the South; focus on blacks, but, in reality, 5 whites were registered for every 1 black, beginning in 1966! — With respect to the Electoral College, the South steadily has increased its proportion from 31% in the 1960s, to 32% in the 1970s, to 37% in the 1980s, to 39% in the 1990s, to 41% of the necessary (270 votes to win) in the 2000s as shown in Table 1 below. It is now the STRONGEST region for the Republican Party in presidential politics. — The South has moved from the strongest region of support for the Democratic party and its candidates to the STRONGEST REGION OF SUPPORT FOR THE REPUBLICAN PARTY AND ITS CANDIDATES while the Northeast has moved to the STRONGEST REGION OF SUPPORT FOR THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY AND ITS CANDIDATES. 5. Race AND religion. While race remains a source of political conflict, religion re-emerged as a source of political conflict in late-1980s/early-1990s, but now it is among Protestants, Mainline versus Fundamentalist, the latter being the most loyal supporters of the Republican Party and its candidates. 6. CONCLUSION: The future of American Politics. Cycles of political control — “critical” elections theory TIED TO ECONOMICS Table 1. Shift in Partisan Control, Major Political Offices, 1994 and 1995/6 1994 1995/6 Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other President/1992 and 1996 % of vote 43.0 37.4 18.9 49.2 40.7 8.4 Electoral College 370 168 0 379 159 0 Congress House % of vote* 50.9 45.5 3.6 45.4 52.4 2.2 Number of seats 258 176 1 197 236 1 Senate Number of seats 57 43 0 46 53 0 Governors 30 18 2 18 31 1 State Legislatures Lower House Number of seats 3186 2223 0 2817 2603 0 % of seats 58.9 41.1 51.9 48.1 Upper House Number of seats 1132 799 0 1021 905 0 % of seats 58.6 41.4 53.0 47.0 *Number of votes cast in 1992 was 96,239,000 and 1994 was 69,770,000. Source: Calculated from statistics presented in U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1996 (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 1996), pp. 270-280. Table 2. Shift in Partisan Control, Major Political Offices, 2004/6 and 2007/8 2004/6 2007/8 Dem Rep Other Dem Rep Other President/2004 and 2008 % of vote 48.3 50.7 1.0 52.6 46.1 1.3 Electoral College 251 286 0 364 174 0 Congress House % of vote** 46.6 49.2 4.2 52.2 44.3 3.5 Number of seats 202 232 0 233 202 0 Senate Number of seats 45 55 0 51* 49 0 Governors 22 28 0 28 22 0 State Legislatures Lower House Number of seats 2702 2675 34 2971 2422 18 % of seats 49.9 49.4 0.6 54.9 44.8 0.3 Upper House Number of seats 952 964 6 1010 909 3 % of seats 49.5 50.1 0.3 52.5 47.3 0.2 ______________________________________________________________________________ *Includes Independent Lieberman (CT) and Socialist Sanders (VT), both of whom organize with the Democrats, bringing that total to 51 seats. **Number of votes cast in 2004 was 113,192,000, and in 2006 it was 80,568,000. Sources: Calculated from statistics presented in U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2008 (Washington, DC: Government Printing Office, 2008), pp. 245, 249, 250, 252, and 253. Table 3. National Exit Poll (in percentages), 2006 ______________________________________________________________________________ Voters Demographic Characteristic Democrats Republicans 100% All Voters 54% 46% 52 Women 56 44 48 Men 52 48 79 White 48 52 10 Black 89 11 08 Hispanic 70 30 02 Asian 62 38 12 Age 18 to 29 61 39 24 Age 30 to 44 54 46 34 Age 45 to 59 54 46 29 Age 60 and older 52 48 03 Did not complete high school 64 36 21 High school graduate 56 44 31 Some college education 52 48 27 College graduate 50 50 18 Postgraduate education 59 41 55 All Protestants 45 55 43 White Protestants 38 62 26 All Catholics 56 44 19 White Catholics 51 49 02 Jewish 88 12 24 White evangelical, born-again Christian 29 71 07 Family income under $15,000 69 31 12 $15,000 to 29,999 63 37 21 $30,000 to 49,999 57 43 22 $50,000 to 74,999 51 49 16 $75,000 to 99,999 52 48 23 $100,000 and over 48 52 36 Republican 08 92 25 Independent 59 41 39 Democrat 93 07 22 East 64 36 27 Midwest 53 47 30 South 46 54 21 West 56 44 20 Liberal 87 11 47 Moderate 60 38 32 Conservative 20 78 ____________________________________________________________________________________________ Table 4. Political Party Regional Strongholds with States Won by Senators Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton and State Electoral College Votes, 2008 Democratic Republican Stronghold Swing States Stronghold Northeast EC Midwest EC South EC Connecticut 7 Illinois 21 Alabama 9 Delaware 3 Indiana 11 Arkansas 6 Maine 4 Iowa 7 Florida** 27 Maryland 10 Kentucky 8 Georgia 15 Massachusetts 12 Michigan** 17 Louisiana 9 New Hampshire 4 Minnesota 10 Mississippi 6 New Jersey 15 Missouri* 11 North Carolina 15 New York 31 Ohio 20 South Carolina 8 Pennsylvania 21 West Virginia 5 Tennessee 11 Rhode Island 4 Wisconsin 10 Texas 34 Vermont 3 120 Virginia 13 Washington, DC 3 153 117 Mountains/ Pacific Coast Plains Alaska 3 Arizona 10 California 55 Colorado 9 Hawaii 4 Idaho 4 Oregon 7 Kansas 6 Washington 11 Montana 3 80 Nebraska 5 Nevada 5 New Mexico 5 North Dakota 3 Oklahoma 7 South Dakota 3 Utah 5 Wyoming 3 68 Grand Total 197 120 221 EC Deficit (73) (49) Source: Earl Black and Merle Black, Divided America (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007) Compiled from "Democratic Delegate Counts - Election Guide 2008 - Dem. Delegates," http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/delegates/index.html, accessed June 4, 2008. Italics=won by Obama; Normal=won by Clinton; *tie; **no delegates for violation of primary scheduling rules; restored to half delegations by the Democratic National Committee, May 31, 2008. Table 5. Political Party Regional Strongholds by Electoral College (EC) Vote, 2008 Democratic Republican Stronghold Swing States Stronghold Northeast EC Midwest EC South EC Connecticut 7 Illinois 21 Alabama 9 Delaware 3 Indiana 11 Arkansas 6 Maine 4 Iowa 7 Florida 27 Maryland 10 Kentucky 8 Georgia 15 Massachusetts 12 Michigan 17 Louisiana 9 New Hampshire 4 Minnesota 10 Mississippi 6 New Jersey 15 Missouri 11 North Carolina 15 New York 31 Ohio 20 South Carolina 8 Pennsylvania 21 West Virginia 5 Tennessee 11 Rhode Island 4 Wisconsin 10 Texas 34 Vermont 3 120 Virginia 13 Washington, DC 3 153 117 Mountains/ Pacific Coast Plains Alaska 3 Arizona 10 California 55 Colorado 9 Hawaii 4 Idaho 4 Oregon 7 Kansas 6 Washington 11 Montana 3 80 Nebraska* 5 Nevada 5 New Mexico 5 North Dakota 3 Oklahoma 7 South Dakota 3 Utah 5 Wyoming 3 68 Obama 194 96 74 McCain 3 24 147 Source: Earl Black and Merle Black, Divided America (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007, 2008) Compiled from “After the Vote: State by State,” The New York Times, Section P, November 8, 2008, pp. P10-P20; “2008 General Election,” North Carolina State Board of Elections, http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/content.aspx?id=69/results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/7937/13362/en/ summary.html, accessed November 10, 2008; “Statewide Races,” Missouri Secretary of State, http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb, accessed November 10, 2008. Blue=Obama (365); Red=McCain (173). *Obama received one (1) Electoral College vote from the Omaha, Nebraska, congressional district. Table 6. National Exit Poll for President, 2008 (in percentages). Voters Demographic Characteristic Obama McCain Other/NA 100% All Voters 53% 47% 0% 53 Women 56 43 1 47 Men 49 48 3 74 White 43 55 2 13 Black 95 4 1 9 Hispanic 67 31 2 2 Asian 62 35 3 3 Other 66 31 3 18 Age 18-29 66 32 2 29 Age 30-44 52 46 2 37 Age 45-64 5 49 1 23 Age 60 and older 47 51 2 4 No High School 63 35 2 20 High School Graduate 52 46 2 31 Some College 51 47 2 28 College Graduate 50 48 2 17 Postgraduate 58 40 2 54 All Protestants 45 54 1 42 White Protestants 34 65 1 27 All Catholics 54 45 1 2 Jewish 78 21 1 38 Evangelical, Born Again Christian 41 57 1 39 Democrat 89 10 1 29 Independent 52 44 4 32 Republican 9 90 1 22 Liberal 89 10 1 44 Moderate 60 39 1 34 Conservative 20 78 2 Is This the First Year You Ever Voted? 11 Yes 69 30 1 89 No 50 48 2 _____________________________________________________________________________________________ Source: "Dissecting the Changing Electorate," The New York Times, November 9, 2008, Week in Review Section, p. 5; For detailed income categories "President - Election Center 2008 - Electiions & Politics from CNN.com, http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#USP00p1, accessed November 8, 2008. N=17,836. Table 7. Political Party Regional Strongholds by Electoral College (EC) Vote, 2012 Democratic Republican Stronghold Swing States Stronghold Northeast EC Midwest EC South EC Connecticut 7 Illinois 20 Alabama 9 Delaware 3 Indiana 11 Arkansas 6 Maine 4 Iowa** 6 Florida** 29 Maryland 10 Kentucky 8 Georgia 16 Massachusetts 11 Michigan 16 Louisiana 8 New Hampshire** 4 Minnesota 10 Mississippi 6 New Jersey 14 Missouri 10 North Carolina** 15 New York 29 Ohio** 18 South Carolina 9 Pennsylvania 20 West Virginia 5 Tennessee 11 Rhode Island 4 Wisconsin** 10 Texas 38 Vermont 3 114 Virginia** 13 Washington, DC 3 160 112 Mountains/ Pacific Coast Plains Alaska 3 Arizona 11 California 55 Colorado** 9 Hawaii 4 Idaho 4 Oregon 7 Kansas 6 Washington 12 Montana 3 81 Nebraska 5 Nevada** 6 New Mexico 5 North Dakota 3 Oklahoma 7 South Dakota 3 Utah 6 Wyoming 3 71 Obama 190 80 62 Romney 3 34 169 Source: Earl Black and Merle Black, Divided America (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007, 2008) **“Battleground” states. Compiled from “How the States Voted,” The New York Times, Section P, November 8, 2012, p. P11; for the Florida results see Real Clear Politics, “Florida: Romney v. Obama,” accessed November 14, 2012 at http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/fl/florida_romney_vs_obama-1883.html. Obama won Florida with 50.0% of the vote to Romney’s 49.1%. Blue=Obama (332); Red=Romney (206). Table 8. National Exit Poll for President, 2012 (in percentages). Voters Demographic Characteristic Obama Romney Other/NA 100% All Voters 51% 48% 1% 53 Women 55 44 1 47 Men 45 52 3 72 White 39 59 2 13 Black 93 06 1 10 Hispanic 71 27 2 3 Asian 73 26 1 2 Other 58 38 4 19 Age 18-29 60 37 3 27 Age 30-44 52 45 3 38 Age 45-64 47 51 2 16 Age 60 and older 44 56 0 03 No High School 64 35 1 21 High School Graduate 51 48 1 29 Some College 49 48 3 29 College Graduate 47 51 2 18 Postgraduate 55 42 3 53 Protestant/Other Christian 45 54 1 25 Catholic 54 45 1 02 Jewish 78 21 1 07 Something Else 74 23 3 12 None 70 26 4 39 White Protestant/Other Christian 30 69 1 26 Evangelical, Born Again Christian 21 78 1 38 Democrat 92 07 1 29 Independent 45 50 5 32 Republican 06 93 1 25 Liberal 86 11 3 41 Moderate 56 41 3 35 Conservative 17 82 1 _______________________________________________________________________________ Source: CBS News, National Exit Poll for President, http://www.cbsnews.com/election-results- 2012/exit.shtml?state=P&jurisdiction=0&party=R&tag=contentBody:exitLink, accessed November 14, 2012. N=26,565 Table 9. Political Party Regional Strongholds by Electoral College (EC) Vote, 2016 Democratic Republican Stronghold Swing States Stronghold Northeast EC Midwest EC South EC Connecticut 7 Illinois 20 Alabama 9 Delaware 3 Indiana 11 Arkansas 6 Maine# 4 Iowa** 6 Florida** 29 Maryland 10 Kentucky 8 Georgia 16 Massachusetts 11 Michigan 16 Louisiana 8 New Hampshire** 4 Minnesota 10 Mississippi 6 New Jersey 14 Missouri 10 North Carolina** 15 New York 29 Ohio** 18 South Carolina 9 Pennsylvania 20 West Virginia 5 Tennessee 11 Rhode Island 4 Wisconsin** 10 Texas 38 Vermont 3 114 Virginia** 13 Washington, DC 3 160 112 Mountains/ Pacific Coast Plains Alaska 3 Arizona 11 California 55 Colorado** 9 Hawaii 4 Idaho 4 Oregon 7 Kansas 6 Washington 12 Montana 3 81 Nebraska 5 Nevada** 6 New Mexico 5 North Dakota 3 Oklahoma 7 South Dakota 3 Utah 6 Wyoming 3 71 Clinton 169 30 33 Trump 24 84 198 Source: Earl Black and Merle Black, Divided America (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007, 2008) **“Battleground” states. Compiled from “Election 2016,” The New York Times online accessed September 6, 2017, at https://nytimes.com/elections/results/president?mcubz=0. #Maine gave 3 Electoral College votes to Clinton and 1 Electoral College vote to Trump. Red=Trump (306); Blue=Clinton (232). Table 10. National Exit Poll for President, 2016 (in percentages). Voters Demographic Characteristic Clinton Trump Other/NA 100% All Voters 51% 48% 1% 53 Women 54 41 4 47 Men 41 52 5 71 White 37 57 5 12 Black 89 08 3 11 Hispanic 66 28 5 04 Asian 65 27 6 03 Other 56 36 2 19 Age 18-29 55 36 8 25 Age 30-44 51 41 7 40 Age 45-64 44 52 3 16 Age 65 and older 45 52 2 18 High School or less 46 51 3 32 Some College 43 51 5 32 College Graduate 49 44 5 18 Postgraduate 58 37 4 52 Protestant/Other Christian 39 56 3 23 Catholic 46 50 3 03 Jewish 71 23 6 08 Something Else 62 29 7 15 None 67 25 7 74 All Others 60 34 5 26 Evangelical, Born Again Christian 16 80 2 36 Democrat 89 08 2 31 Independent 42 46 9 33 Republican 08 88 2 26 Liberal 84 10 5 39 Moderate 52 40 6 35 Conservative 16 81 2 _______________________________________________________________________________ Source: Fox News, [National] Exit Polls, http://www.foxnews.com/politics/elections/2016/exit-polls accessed September 6, 2017. N=24,537 Table 11. Political Party Regional Strongholds by Electoral College (EC) Vote, 2020 Democratic Republican Stronghold Swing States Stronghold Northeast EC Midwest EC South EC Connecticut 7 Illinois 20 Alabama 9 Delaware 3 Indiana 11 Arkansas 6 Maine# 4 Iowa** 6 Florida** 29 Maryland 10 Kentucky 8 Georgia** 16 Massachusetts 11 Michigan** 16 Louisiana 8 New Hampshire 4 Minnesota** 10 Mississippi 6 New Jersey 14 Missouri 10 North Carolina** 15 New York 29 Ohio** 18 South Carolina 9 Pennsylvania** 20 West Virginia 5 Tennessee 11 Rhode Island 4 Wisconsin** 10 Texas 38 Vermont 3 114 Virginia 13 Washington, DC 3 160 112 Mountains/ Pacific Coast Plains Alaska 3 Arizona** 11 California 55 Colorado 9 Hawaii 4 Idaho 4 Oregon 7 Kansas 6 Washington 12 Montana 3 81 Nebraska# 5 Nevada** 6 New Mexico 5 North Dakota 3 Oklahoma 7 South Dakota 3 Utah 6 Wyoming 3 71 Biden 189 56 61 Trump 4 58 170 Source: Earl Black and Merle Black, Divided America (New York: Simon & Schuster, 2007, 2008) **“Battleground” states. Compiled from “Election 2020,” The New York Times online accessed November 14, 2020, at https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results- president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections- 2020®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=storyline_menu_recirc #Maine gave 3 Electoral College votes to Biden and 1 to Trump. Nebraska gave 1 Electoral College vote to Biden and 4 to Trump. Blue=Biden (306). Red=Trump (232). Table 12. National Exit Poll for President, 2020 (in percentages) N=15,590 Voters Demographic Characteristics Biden Trump 53% Women 56 43 47 Men 48 49 65 White 42 57 12 Black 87 12 13 Hispanic/Latino 66 32 04 Asian 63 31 06 Other 58 40 17 Age 18-29 62 35 24 Age 30-44 52 45 38 Age 45-64 50 49 22 Age 65 and older 48 51 19 Never Attended College 48 51 22 Attended College But Received No Degree 48 49 15 Associate’s Degree (2 year) 52 46 27 Bachelor’s Degree 51 46 16 Advanced Degree (e.g., Law, MA, MBA, PhD, etc.) 62 36 43 Protestant or other Christian 39 60 25 Catholic 52 47 02 Jewish 00 00 08 Something Else 69 29 22 None 65 31 28 White Evangelical Born-Again Christian 24 76 72 All Others 62 36 37 Democrat 94 06 35 Republican 06 93 28 Independent 54 40 24 Liberal 89 10 40 Moderate 64 33 37 Conservative 14 84 Source: The New York Times, National Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted (accessed November 4, 2020) https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/exit-polls- president.html?action=click&pgtype=Article&state=default&module=styln-elections- 2020®ion=TOP_BANNER&context=election_recirc; ABC News, Your Voice,/Your Vote, National Exit Poll (accessed November 4, 2020) https://abcnews.go.com/Elections/exit-polls- 2020-us-presidential-election-results-analysis. Table 13. Classification of Presidential Elections Interval Critical Election Election Date in years Classification Party in Control 1836 ** Converting Democrat 1864 28 Realigning Republican 1892/96 28(32) Converting Republican 1928/32 36 Realigning Democrat 1960/64 32 Converting Democrat 1994/96 34 (32) Realigning Republican 2024/28? 28 (32) Converting Republican Basic Sources for “Critical Elections” in American Politics V.O. Key, Jr. 1955. “A Theory of Critical Elections.” Journal of Politics 17:3-18. V.O. Key, Jr. 1959. “Secular Realignment and the Party System.” Journal of Politics 21:198- 210. E.E. Schattschneider. 1960. The Semisovereign People. New York: Holt, Rinehart & Winston. Angus Campbell, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller, and Donald E. Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Wiley. Gerald M. Pomper. 1967. “Classification of Presidential Elections.” Journal of Politics. 29: 535-566. Walter Dean Burnham. 1970. Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American Politics. New York: W.W. Norton. Everett Carll Ladd, Jr. 1970. American Political Parties: Social Change and Political Response. New York: W.W. Norton. Paul Allen Beck. 1977. “Partisan Dealignment in the Postwar South.” American Political Science Review. 71: 477-496. Harold W. Stanley. 1988. “Southern Partisan Changes: Dealignment, Realignment or Both?” Journal of Politics. 50: 64-88. Walter Dean Burnham. 1996. “Realignment Lives: The 1994 Earthquake and Its Implications.” Pp. 363-395 in The Clinton Presidency: First Appraisals, eds. Colin Campbell and Bert A. Rockman. Chatham, NJ: Chatham House. Jeffrey M. Stonecash. 2006. Political Parties Matter: Realignment and the Return of Partisan Voting. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner. Earl Black and Merle Black. 2007. Divided America: The Ferocious Power Struggle in American Politics. New York: Simon & Schuster. Samuel Merrill, III, Bernard Grofman, and Thomas L. Brunell. 2008. “Cycles in American National Electoral Politics, 1854-2006: Statistical Evidence and an Exploratory Model.” American Political Science Review. 102: 1-17. James E. Campbell. 2008. “Editor’s Introduction: [Symposium on] Forecasting the 2008 National Elections.” PS: Political Science & Politics. 41(4): 679-681.