An Analysis
of
The Forthcoming 2010 Election in Burma
Aung Htoo
General Secretary
Burma Lawyers' Council
(1)
I. The 2010 Elections: Political Parties and Ethnic
Organizations A. Political Parties
(1) The Issue of Set Objectives.
"Non-disintegration of the Union,
Non-disintegration of national solidarity and
Perpetuation of sovereignty".
Constitution of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar
(2008), Article 404(a).
111 Constitution of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar (2008), Article 404(a).
(2)
(2) The Issue of Dissolving Political Parties
If a political party infringes one of the following stipulations, it shall
have no right of continued existence:
(a)having been declared an unlawful association under the existing
law;
(b) directly or indirectly contacting or abetting the insurgent group launching armed rebellion against the Union or the associations and persons determined by the Union to have committed terrorist acts or the association declared to be an unlawful association;
(c) directly or indirectly receiving and expending financial, material and other assistance from a foreign government, a religious association, other association or a person from a foreign country;
(d) abusing religion for political purpose.111
111 Constitution of the Republic of the Union of Myanmar (2008), Article 407.
(3)
B. Ethnic Organizations
2Constitution of the Republic of the U nion of Mysnmsr (2008), Article 407.
Issue on the Electoral System
First Past the Post (FPTP) Electoral System Mr. A                                 38
Mr. B                                 35
Mr. C                                 27
Total Vote                          100
Mr. A will be elected although he does not receive support of
62 voters,
out of 100.     (Simple Majority System)
Recommendation: Proportional Representation (Party List)
Electoral System
(4)
Issue of the Ethnic Armed Resistance Organizations Issue Arising from the Constitution
All the armed forces in the Union shall be under the
command of the Defense Services (Army). (Article 338)
Border Guard Force
• No prior discussion in the National Convention • No provision in the Constitution
• No Law at all
(5)
II. The Impossibility of Free Elections Under Existing Draconian Laws
A.1962 Printers and Publishers Registration Law
B.  1975 State Protection Law
C. 2004 Electronic Transaction Law
D. Section 505(B) of the Penal Code
(6) III. Disenfranchised Demographics:
A. Migrant Workers
•Estimated 3 Million Population in Thailand •The Right to Vote is denied: Out-of-country Voting (OCV) system
(The Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand and
Laos)
(7)
B. Refugees and Internally Displaced Persons
•Estimated 3.5 million Internally displaced people
C. Political Prisoners
• Political prisoners have historically been denied the
right to vote.
•Though the SPDC may release all political prisoners
before the election, timing is also a factor.
•How to enjoy the right to be elected
60
(8) IV. Democratic Election Standards
A. Election Commission
•Independence Issue
The President appoints each member of the
commission and does not need approval from
parliament.     (Art 398)
•Accountability Issue
It is likely that their election commission will not
investigate charges against the SPDC.
(9)
B. Electoral Roll
•Update issue of electoral roll
•Voter registration irregularities
•Registering displaced voters and Identity Documents
•Asking assistance of IOM
C. Voting, Advance Voting, Out-of-Country Voting
(10) D. Election Observers
•National Observers
(a)Formation of Election Observation Organizations
(b)Learning Election Knowledge from the
International Community and Providing trainings to
the Public
(c)Publication and distribution of election education
materials
(11)
E. Election Observers
•International Observers (ANFREL, NDI, EU, etc—) Free reign in the host country
-the ability to travel widely to ensure universal suffrage,
-access to financial documents,
-meeting with election officials,
-permission to be physically present during polling and
counting,
-speaking to representatives from all political parties,
-access to interview normal citizens, and
-anything else the monitors deem necessary to verify the
validity of the election.
(12) E. Counting, Recounting, and Declaration of Results
•Transparency:
Manual counting is considered more transparent than computerized
counting.
•SECURITY:
Security of the ballots and ballot boxes must be maintained from the
beginning of voting through the completion of the count.
•Professionalism:
The UN Election Assistance Division should be requested to prepare
•Secrecy:
Voters should be hidden from view when marking their selections
•Timeliness
Delays in counting could result in a negative perception of the voting
process.
(13)
F. Complaint Mechanism and The Role of Judiciary
Independence of judiciary
G. Right to Information and the Role of the Media
G. Election Fraud
Election Watch
(14) V. Conclusive Analysis on 2010 Election
A. 2010 Election: Not A Plan to Step Down but to Strengthen SPDC's Power
•The Establishment of The Nay-Pyi-Daw (New Capital) •The Creation of Weil-Founded Fear of Being Persecuted the location of the state institutions •Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons
B. Are All Elections Stepping Stones for a Gradual Democratization?
C. 2010 ELECTION: Is it a gradual change for democratization?
(l)The Nexus Between Constitution and Election
(2) Granting Impunity or Denying Impunity
(3) Political Environment   of the   Country