Diets for
a Better
Future:
Rebooting and Reimagining
Healthy and Sustainable
Food Systems in the G20
Diets For a Better Future
2
Design and Graphics
Hannah Olwer
Senior Graphic Designer
EAT
Jacob Leslie
Graphic Designer
EAT
Acknowledgements
This report would not be possible without the generous support of
the Climate and Land Use Alliance. This report would also not have
been possible without the advice and generous contribution of Marco
Springmann whose analysis forms the basis for this paper and is part
of a global study on the healthiness and environmental sustainability
of national dietary guidelines compared to various dietary patterns.
We would also like to thank the numerous individuals at EAT who
gave their advice and critiques of this report. This includes Gunhild
Stordalen MD, PhD, Olav Kjørven, Lujain Alqodmani, BMSc MBBS
MIHMEP, Olof Olsson PhD, and Sudhvir Singh MD.
Image credit
Page 7: Unsplash, Johnny McClung
Page 12: Getty Images, Wahyu Noviansyah / EyeEm
Page 16: iStock, Simon Gurney
Page 18: Shutterstock, Roman Akhmetov
Page 24: Unsplash, Li-An Lim
Page 27: Shutterstock, Olga Klochanko
Page 32: Getty Images, Artur Debat
Lead Author
Brent Loken PhD
Current Global Food Lead Scientist
WWF
Past Director of Science Translation
EAT
Contributing Author
Fabrice DeClerck PhD
Science Director
EAT and Bioversity
Exponential Roadmap modeler
Avit Bhowmik PhD
Karlstad University and Exponential Roadmap
Reviewers
Prof Walter Willett MD
Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health and Harvard Medical School
Bronson Griscom PhD
Conservation International
Marco Springmann PhD
Oxford Martin Programme on the Future of Food
Jonathan Foley PhD
Project Drawdown
Editor
Biz Ghormley
Director of Communication and Engagement
EAT
Diets for a Better Future investigates current food
consumption patterns and the efficacy of national
dietary guidelines in G20 countries compared to the
Planetary Health Diet. It also explores the potential
for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by shifting
toward more healthy and sustainable diets and how
this could lead to a more equitable distribution of the
global “carbon budget” for food. The modeling used
in this report is part of an academic research paper
titled The healthiness and sustainability of national and
global food-based dietary guidelines (Springmann et
al. 2020).
Diets For a Better Future
3
Table of Contents
04	 Foreword
05	Critical Points
06	Executive Summary
07 Food is Fundamental
12	 Guiding The Food Choices we Make
18	 Leading The Way
24	 The Climate Impact – Food Emissions in the G20
27	 Achieving Healthy Diets For All Within Planetary Boundaries
32	 A Roadmap For Change
34	 Critical Conclusions
35 Methodology Used in this Report
36 Scope and Limitations
37 Glossary And Country Abbreviations
38 Literature
39 About EAT
Diets For a Better Future
4
Foreword The future of the food system will be central in shaping the
future of our planet and our civilization.
First, let’s consider the environmental impacts of food. Most
people don’t realize it, but our food system and agricultural
practices are major drivers of environmental degradation
worldwide. Already, agricultural land use dominates about 40%
of the Earth’s land surface and has been the principle driver of
tropical deforestation, habitat loss and degradation, and global
biodiversity loss. Agriculture is also the biggest consumer, and
polluter, of the world’s water resources. Lakes, aquifers, rivers,
and even coastal oceans around the world have been disrupted by
human activities, notably food production. And the food system
contributes about 25% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions,
roughly comparable to the emissions resulting from the world’s
production of electricity. In short, nothing else we do has come
close to how food, agriculture, and land use are causing global
environmental harm. Without major changes, our food
system will continue to push Earth well beyond its planetary
boundaries.
Beyond these environmental concerns, the world’s current food
system also contributes to significant human failures. On the
one hand, a sizable fraction of the world still faces crippling food
insecurity and under-nutrition, while on the other hand, hundreds
of millions of people face serious health challenges – including
obesity, diabetes, and heart disease – linked to unhealthy diets.
To address these environmental and social challenges, we must
reboot and reimagine our global food system. Numerous changes
to the food system are needed, including protecting intact
ecosystems, improving the sustainability of our farming practices,
and addressing the tremendous levels of waste in the food system.
But there is one crucial factor that can simultaneously improve our
health, our food security, and our environment at the same time –
namely, changing our diets.
Our dietary choices, especially how much conventionallyproduced
red meat and dairy products we consume, can drive
health and environmental outcomes across the entire food system.
Simply put, reducing the consumption of some foods, while
increasing the consumption of others, could have tremendous
benefits to the global environment and to human health.
This pioneering study by EAT examines how national dietary
guidelines in G20 countries need to be shifted to improve human
health and environmental outcomes in the food system. The
results strongly indicate the need to change our views on diet and
consider both the human health and environmental sustainability
implications while setting national food policies. This study helps
illustrate ways to build a better food system – promoting improved
food security and human health while reducing environmental
impacts.
In a world where climate change, biodiversity loss, food
security, and diet-related illnesses are major concerns,
changing diets may be one of the single most effective
things we can do to build a better future. And this study is a
powerful reminder of how we can do it.
Dr. Jonathan Foley
Executive Director
PROJECTDRAWDOWN
drawdown.org | @ProjectDrawdown
Critical
Points
Food is critical in our fight
against climate change and
requires leadership from the
G20. The food we choose to eat,
how much is lost or wasted and how
it is produced will determine whether
we meet the Paris Agreement and
Sustainable Development Goals.
2
A shift toward healthy and
sustainable diets should be a
priority in all G20 countries.
Consumption of less healthy and less
sustainably produced “lose-lose” foods
is too high in most G20 countries, while
intake of healthier “win-win” foods is
consistently too low.
4
Following the current national
dietary guidelines of the G20
countries will not ensure global
warming stays below 1.5°C.
Total food-related GHG emissions in
G20 countries currently account for
approximately 75% of the carbon budget
for food, while adopting a healthy
flexitarian diet would reduce this to
approximately 40%.
6
National dietary guidelines are
an opportunity for policymakers
to support coherent food and
agriculture priorities aligned
with the Paris Agreement and
Sustainable Development Goals.
The national dietary guidelines of G20
countries are inconsistent in their dietary
recommendations, and few integrate both
health and environmental sustainability.
3
Dietary choices in G20
countries are destroying the
planet. Global adoption of current
G20 food consumption patterns by
2050 would exceed the planetary
boundary for food-related GHG
emissions by 263%. This would require
between one to seven Earths to support.
1
The G20 countries have a variety
of rich and vibrant diets and
culinary traditions that require
different approaches and scales
of intervention to achieve healthy
diets within planetary boundaries.
Some countries would require more
ambitious reductions in per-capita foodrelated
GHG emissions while others may
require a slight increase.
7
Food-related per-capita
emissions in G20 countries as a
whole need to be approximately
halved by 2050. Doing so
would ensure we can feed 10 billion
people healthy diets within planetary
boundaries, and enable a more equitable
global distribution of food-related GHG
emissions.
5
Diets For a Better Future
6
Executive
Summary
The food we choose to eat, how much is lost or wasted,
and how it is produced will determine whether or not we
meet the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development
Goals (SDGs). Food systems must transition from being a
net source of GHG emissions to a net sink. Shifting toward
healthy flexitarian diets is central to this goal. Despite
this, food consumption is rarely considered as a solution
by countries in meeting climate targets outlined by their
Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). A large body
of evidence has shown that a diet rich in healthy plantbased
foods and with fewer animal source foods (i.e. up to
five servings of animal source foods per week) confers both
improved health and environmental benefits. Overall, this
literature indicates that such diets are “win-win” in that they
are good for both people and planet.
The EAT-Lancet Commission on Food, Planet, Health
brought all of this evidence together and proposed scientific
targets for healthy diets and sustainable food systems. The
Commission concluded that achieving healthy diets from
sustainable food systems for 10 billion people by 2050
is possible but only with a significant reduction of animal
source foods in some countries (mainly G20 countries)
and universal increase in healthy plant-based foods in
our diets. Hence, shifting towards flexitarian diets, such
as the Planetary Health Diet, composed predominantly of
healthy plant-based foods, can optimize human health while
reducing environmental impacts. Despite this, most food
consumption patterns in G20 countries are not aligned with
those of a healthy flexitarian diet and most national dietary
guidelines (NDGs) are not ambitious enough to bring food
systems within planetary boundaries, including limiting
global warming to 1.5°C. This is important because NDGs
are a necessary component of food policy and an essential
first step to promoting healthy eating habits in a country
often through educational programs or public awareness
campaigns. If NDGs lack ambition or are incompatible
with the latest science on human health and environmental
sustainability, then this could influence national level food
policy and individual food consumption.
Although there are significant differences in food
consumption—within and between G20 countries—
reflecting each country’s distinct food traditions and socioeconomic
circumstances, there is a common trend towards
increased prevalence of unhealthy diets, characterized
by overconsumption of red meat, dairy, sugar, and highly
processed foods and under consumption of healthy foods.
This is leading to increasing rates of non-communicable
diseases (NCDs) in these countries and at the global level,
unhealthy diets now pose a greater risk to morbidity and
mortality than does unsafe sex, and alcohol, drug, and
tobacco use combined. If these consumption patterns are
adopted globally over the coming decades, GHG emissions
from food production will nearly double by 2050, largely
surpassing the “carbon budget” of 5.0 Gt CO2eq for
food. These projected consumption trends could trigger
irreversible global “tipping-points” leading to catastrophic
environmental damage and jeopardizing human civilization as
we know it.
At the same time much of the world’s population still faces
burdens of undernutrition, with more than 820 million people
having insufficient food and many more consuming lowquality
diets. Given all of this, we need an unprecedented
effort to shift dietary patterns towards healthy and
sustainable food consumption and a global commitment
to reverse trends toward unhealthy diets in the rest of the
world. Transitions to healthy diets would decrease total global
food-related GHG emissions and enable more equitable
distribution of these emissions within planetary boundaries.
This would ensure that all countries can adequately address
all forms of malnutrition while leaving our children a thriving
and healthy planet. Without leadership by the G20, the world
cannot achieve this critically important goal.
Diets For a Better Future
7
Global food production is the single largest human pressure
on Earth, threatening local ecosystems, driving a sixth
mass extinction of species, and impacting the stability of
the entire Earth system.1
,
2
,
3 Feeding and producing food
for our current population of 7.7 billion people accounts for
approximately 12.5 Gt CO2eq or 24% of annual greenhouse
gas (GHG) emissions (see Figure 1). Of this, 5.6 Gt CO2eq
come mainly from livestock production and rotting food
waste, while 6.9 Gt CO2eq come from rice production,
agriculture practices, fertilizer use, land conversion and
deforestation mainly for agriculture.1
,
4 Despite the central
role of food consumption and production as a major driver
in the climate and biodiversity crises, food has so far not
been considered central to global policy agendas such
as the Paris Agreement, Sustainable Development Goals
(SDGs), or Convention on Biological Diversity.
Food is
Fundamental
Diets For a Better Future
8
Figure 1.
Agriculture, Forestry, and Land Use (AFOLU) account for nearly 24% of
global GHG emissions. Without adequately integrating food consumption
and production into national level decision-making, there is a low chance
of achieving international policy agendas like the Paris Agreement and
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Agriculture, Forestry, and Land
Use are commonly grouped into a single sector called AFOLU but have
been separated into two sectors here to highlight the GHG gases (i.e.
methane and nitrous oxide) we focus on in this report. Data: IPCC WG3
FAR Image: Jonathan Foley, Drawdown.org.
Although global food production of calories has kept
pace with population growth, approximately 820 million
people still lack sufficient food and many more consume
an unhealthy diet that contributes to premature death
and morbidity.5
,
6 Globally, obesity rates are soaring, as
nearly 800 million people are considered obese (more
than 2 billion when considering both overweight and
obese), and 40 million children under the age of five are
overweight.7 This is mainly driven by a shift to less healthy
foods, including diets increasingly dominated by refined
carbohydrates, sugars, and red and processed meats. This
unhealthy dietary pattern is leading to increasing rates of
non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and unhealthy diets
now pose a greater risk to morbidity and mortality than does
unsafe sex, and alcohol, drug, and tobacco use combined.8
Globally, this double burden of malnutrition is unequally
distributed with many G20 countries largely suffering from
high rates of overweight and obesity (e.g. 72% of Americans,
Australia 63%) while many non G20 countries suffering from
undernutrition, with global hunger rates increasing in recent
years.9
,
10
Moving from incremental to exponential action
There is a growing body of scientific evidence for the
need to keep global warming to well below 2°C, aiming
for 1.5°C.1
,
11
,
12 These are the global temperature limits
necessary to maintain the stability of the Earth system
and reduce catastrophic impacts to human civilization.
Coupled with this evidence are rapidly growing bottomup
movements demanding action on the Paris Agreement
and the biodiversity crisis.13 However, any actions taken
on the climate emergency must move from incremental
to exponential following a power law related to GHG
emissions, termed the Carbon Law.4
,
14 This roadmap
outlines the exponential rate of change necessary to reduce
emissions fast enough to limit warming to 1.5°C. According
to the Carbon Law, emissions need to peak in 2020 and
halve every decade with decarbonization happening no
later than 2050 (Figure 2).
Food is Fundamental
Agriculture Forestry and
Land Use
Global Emissions by Sector
Transportation
14%
AFOLU
24%
Industry
21%
Other
10%
Electricity
25%
Buildings
6%
Methane: Animals
Nitrous Oxide:
Fertilizers
& Manure
Methane: Rice
Land Use Change,
Forestry
Other Food,
Agriculture,
Land Use
10%
14%5%
4%
1%
5%
9%
Diets For a Better Future
9
2020 2030 2040 2050
−20
−10
0
10
20
30
40
50
Gt CO2eq
Reaching Negative
Emissions in 2039
Electricity
Industry
Forestry and Land Use
Buildings
Transport
Agriculture
Other
Nature Based Sinks
Roadmap to 1.5°C
A 'carbon budget' for food
Of the sectors outlined in Figures 1 and 2, food is unique.
Unique in that it is not feasible to reduce emissions to near
zero by 2050. This is due to the fact that the biological
processes that produce emissions for food production are
intrinsic to crop (i.e. nitrous oxide from fertilizer use) and
livestock production (i.e. methane from ruminants – see
Figure 1) and therefore some amount of GHGs will always
be generated by food production practices. While we
can and must set high ambitions for anthropogenic GHG
emissions reductions, we cannot expect to fully eliminate
all GHG emissions (i.e methane and nitrous oxide) related
to food production.2 Given this, the EAT-Lancet Commission
proposed a scientific target for GHG emissions from food
production, which they assessed as both necessary and
hard to reduce further to achieve both healthy diets for
nearly 10 billion people and the Paris Agreement by 2050.
The Commission set the upper boundary of emissions from
food at 5.0 Gt CO2eq, which we also adopt as the boundary
or maximum allowable “carbon budget” in this analysis.
Figure 2.
Total global emissions projections, showing the exponential
decreases necessary to keep global warming to 1.5°C,
across major contributing sectors. The orange and light
green sectors are emissions from agriculture, forestry
and land use mainly for food production (e.g. clearing of
tropical forests for livestock and agriculture). Emissions
in all sectors, except for agriculture, must peak in 2020
and rapidly decrease, halving every decade until 2050.
Emissions from agriculture must reduce to at least 5.0 Gt
CO2eq, but reducing even further below this boundary may
be difficult to achieve while feeding 10 billion people by
2050. We offer the term “carbon budget” to describe this
5.0 Gt CO2eq planetary boundary for food. In addition to
rapid decarbonization, we must also begin storing massive
amounts of carbon dioxide in nature based sinks (dark
green in figure). Figure adapted from Willett, Rockstrom,
Loken, et al. (2019).2
Food is Fundamental
Diets For a Better Future
10
0
2
3
1
4
6
7
9
5
8
10
2020 2030 2040 2050
Emissions gap
from food production
Planetary boundary for food
Gt CO2eq
Year
5.6
9.8
5.0
Business As Usual
Healthy and Sustainable Diets +
Reduced Food Loss and Waste
This is possible because these natural systems are both
sources and very large sinks for carbon (see Figure 2). With
changes in how and where we produce food and what we
eat, we can both reduce GHG emissions and use forests,
croplands, pastures and peatlands to sequester carbon.1
,
2
However, current food consumption trajectories and
estimated growth of another 2 billion people on the planet
by 2050 will largely exceed food’s maximum allowable
“carbon budget”. Behaviorial changes associated with
rising incomes and urbanization are driving a global dietary
transition in which traditional diets are being replaced by
more homogenous diets higher in animal source foods.8 If
this trend is not broken and reversed, emissions from food
production will nearly double by 20502 (Figure 3).
Food is Fundamental
Figure 3.
If we follow a business as usual approach, GHG emissions
from food production are projected to rise to 9.8 Gt
CO2eq. A shift toward healthy flexitarian diets (such as
the Planetary Health Diet) in G20 countries and halving
in food loss and waste can help prevent this gap. To
achieve the Paris Agreement, global emissions from food
consumption must not be greater than 5.0 Gt CO2eq
by 2050. Figure adapted from Exponential Roadmap
(2019).4
Food is also unique in that it can go
from being a large part of the climate
change problem to being one of the
most important solutions by driving
change in the agriculture, forestry
and land-use sector.
Diets For a Better Future
11
Low
Low
High
High
Health impact
Fish
Dairy
Unprocessed
red meat
Processed
red meat
Eggs
Chicken
Limited foods
Optional foods
Emphasized foods
Environmental impact
Vegetables
Fruits
Refined grains
Added sugar
Olive oil
LegumesNuts
Potatoes
Whole grains
Health and environmental
impacts of various foods
Some foods are "win-win" others are "lose-lose"
A large body of evidence has demonstrated that
overconsumption of red and processed meat, saturated
fats, and (to a lesser degree) dairy products, are linked to
increased risk for certain types of preventable diseases
(e.g. cancers and heart disease).2 In tandem, a large body
of work has emerged on the environmental impacts of
various diets, with most studies concluding that a diet rich
in healthy plant-based foods and with fewer animal source
foods confers both improved health and environmental
benefits.15,16,17 Overall, this literature indicates that such
diets are “win-win” in that they are good for both people
and planet (Figure 4). The EAT-Lancet Commission on Food,
Planet, Health brought all of this evidence together and
proposed scientific targets for healthy diets and sustainable
food systems and concluded that achieving healthy diets
from sustainable food systems for 10 billion people by 2050
is possible, but only through an unprecedented global
transformation of the food system that includes a significant
reduction of animal source foods in countries where they
are over consumed, along with a halving of food loss and
waste and significant changes in food production practices.
Figure 4.
The health and environmental impacts
of various foods. Overconsumption of
red and processed meats increases
the risk to both human health and the
environment. Plant foods tend to be
good for both people and planet. Added
sugar is a major driver of poor health but
has much lower environmental impacts.
Source: Clark et al. (2019).17
Food is Fundamental
Diets For a Better Future
12
National dietary guidelines (NDGs) are key tools for
changing food systems. NDGs are public, governmentendorsed
documents that are intended to provide
generalizable recommendations and advice on healthy diets
and lifestyles.18 They are a key component of public health
policy and an essential first step to promoting healthy eating
habits in a country, often through educational programs
or public awareness campaigns.19 Typically, NDGs set
guidance on the individual foods people should be eating
to maintain and improve good health and can provide either
quantitative recommendations by food groups or more
general qualitative advice of overall diet.20 Given that NDGs
are a key component of national public health policy and
used to educate the general public, aligning NDGs with
the latest scientific evidence on human health is critical for
promoting public health. Additionally, these guidelines are
increasingly understood as an important opportunity to flag
the climate implications of dietary choices.
Guiding the
Food Choices
We Make
Diets For a Better Future
13
The current state of National Dietary Guidelines
Globally, more than 100 countries have developed or are
developing NDGs.20 They are, however largely absent for
low- and middle-income countries.8 Broadly speaking, NDGs
encourage higher consumption of fruits and vegetables
and lower consumption of sugar and salt – trends that are
highly compatible with international guidelines and healthy
flexitarian diets such as the Planetary Health Diet. Less than
25% of NDGs recommend reducing or moderating meat
intake and few countries make specific recommendations
for whole grain consumption.8
Many NDGs, however, are taking significant steps to
promote healthy plant-based diets. Canada recently
launched a food guide (see Figure 5) with the words “Eat
Well. Live Well.” across the top of their guidelines. Their
recommendations are to: have plenty of vegetables
and fruits (half of the plate), eat protein foods (quarter
of the plate), choose whole-grain foods (quarter of the
plate), and make water the drink of choice. The “guide
emphasizes getting protein from plant-based sources such
as beans, lentils and nuts, rather than always choosing
animal-based foods such as milk, meat and poultry.”21
The new Chinese guidelines recommend to “eat a variety
of foods, with cereals as the staple; balance eating and
exercise to maintain a healthy body weight; consume
plenty of vegetables, milk, and soybeans; and consume an
appropriate amount of fish, poultry, eggs, and lean meat.”20
Guiding The Food Choices We Make
National Dietary Guidelines of Canada National Dietary Guidelines of China
Diets For a Better Future
14
*Some countries may decide to not offer quantitative targets because these will
vary substantially depending on body size and physical activity. For this analysis,
however, quantified targets were needed to compare consumption patterns and
GHG emissions and every effort was made to translate all targets into comparable
quantified targets. When this was not possible (e.g. Canada), then NDG targets
were aligned with current consumption levels. This assumption could have
an impact in accurately assessing NDG targets in countries that do not offer
quantified targets.
Many other countries offer similar recommendations, all
of which are encouraging signs that NDGs are becoming
more closely aligned with the latest science on foods that
optimize human health.
Some NDGs offer only qualitative recommendations*
that are broadly in line with WHO guidance on healthy
diets.22 This approach can make monitoring progress
toward meeting targets more difficult. This also applies
to the WHO dietary recommendations which provide
few concrete intake values or ranges and do not provide
quantitative recommendations on red meat, dairy and sugar
consumption.22 Quantified targets can be useful because
they can help ensure NDGs are in line with the latest science
on foods that optimize human health. In addition, targets
assist with monitoring global and national progress toward
health and environmental outcomes including the SDGs,
Paris Agreement, and the Global NCD Action Plan.23
For those countries that do offer quantified recommendations,
there is a wide range of daily intake values for
distinct food groups. An analysis24 of NDGs for G20
countries used in this report found, for example, that
recommended levels of red meat consumption varied from
35 g/day to approximately 70 g/day, vegetable consumption
from approximately 200 g/day to 400 g/day, and dairy
consumption (in milk equivalents) from 200 g/day to over
1000 g/day. This wide variation of recommended intake
levels can have large impacts on both human health and
environmental sustainability.
Figure 5.
Visual representations of the dietary guidelines in Canada, China,
Australia, and Indonesia demonstrating a breadth of recommendations
and communication styles. Source FAO (2019).20
Guiding The Food Choices We Make
National Dietary Guidelines of IndonesiaNational Dietary Guidelines of Australia
Diets For a Better Future
15
Are consumption patterns in
G20 countries aligned with their NDGs?
G20 Countries
Argentina
Brazil
Canada
Germany
Japan
Mexico
South Africa
United Kingdom
USA
EU28
Bulgaria
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
Hungary
Ireland
Latvia
Poland
Portugal
Slovakia
Sweden
Switzerland
G20 Countries
France
India
Italy
EU28
Austria
Belgium
Croatia
France
Greece
Italy
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Romania
Slovenia
G20 Countries
Australia
China
Indonesia
South Korea
Turkey
EU28
Malta
Spain
0 1 2 3+guideline achievedguidelines achieved guidelines achieved guidelines achieved
Figure 6.
G20 countries current
consumption patterns vs. their
NDG recommendations. No
countries currently meet at least
three of the recommendations in
their NDGs, while a few meet at last
one or two recommendations. Data
from Springmann et al. (2020).24
Integrating environmental sustainability into NDGs
Very few countries explicitly mention or incorporate
environmental sustainability into NDGs.8,19 Sweden, Brazil,
Germany, and Canada are a few of the countries that have
mentioned climate considerations and the relative impact
of various food groups. Of these countries, Sweden and
Brazil have the most embedded message on environmental
sustainability, yet their NDGs are not necessarily more
climate-friendly than other NDGs. Integrating the health
and climate action messages is critical to offer citizens a full
understanding of the implications of their diet, given that
certain foods, such as red meat and dairy, have much higher
climate impacts (see Figure 4). Countries that recommend
higher levels of red meat and dairy consumption may also
be inadvertently causing increased levels of GHG emissions.
Even slightly higher recommendations in red meat (from 100
g/week to 300 g/week) and dairy consumption (from 250g/
day to 500g/day) will increase GHG emissions from the
agricultural sector by nearly 50%, well above the planetary
boundary for food.2
Guiding The Food Choices We Make
Diets For a Better Future
16
Need for consensus on what is healthy and sustainable
The differences in NDGs outlined above highlights the
imperative for broader scientific consensus on what defines
a healthy and sustainable diet to help ensure that both the
Paris Agreement and SDGs are achieved. A healthy diet
should optimize human health while a sustainable diet
should be produced within the planetary boundaries. For
the analysis completed in this report24 we are adopting
the Planetary Health Diet put forth by the EAT-Lancet
Commission and using the global GHG boundary of 5 Gt
CO2eq for food production, which is consistent with keeping
temperature increases to 1.5°C (Figure 7). We adopt this diet
because, when considering the ranges of this diet outlined
in Figure 7, this healthy flexitarian diet can be adapted to
the multitude of culinary traditions around the world. In
addition, adoption of the Planetary Health Diet would also
help to alleviate all forms of malnutrition.
The food groups in the Planetary Health Diet, which is
based on a 2500 kcal/day diet, can be divided into three
categories: emphasized foods which should form the bulk
of one’s diet; limited foods which could form a moderate
portion of one’s diet and; optional foods which are not
necessary and if consumed should form the smallest portion
of one’s diet. The food groups in each category are listed
below. For more information on the health impacts of each
food, please see the EAT-Lancet report.2
Guiding The Food Choices We Make
Diets For a Better Future
17
Guiding The Food Choices We Make
Dairy foods
Plant sourced protein
Animal sourced protein
Unsaturatedplantoils
Addedsugars
W
holegrains
Starchy vegetables
Figure 7.
The Planetary Health Diet by intake
values and ranges for major food
groups, visually represented by
relative proportion of these foods
on a plate. Figures adapted from
Willett, Rockström, Loken, et al.
(2019).2 Click for more information.
The Planetary Health Diet
Diets For a Better Future
18
The G20 countries consists of 19 countries plus the
European Union (EU28). Collectively, the G20 economies
account for around 90% of gross world product, 80% of
world trade, "two thirds" of the global population, and
approximately half of the global land area.25 Given their
influence, the G20 countries presents a unique “win-win”
opportunity for a shift toward healthy flexitarian diets, such
as the Planetary Health Diet, to improve the overall health of
a majority of the global population while decreasing GHG
emissions from food consumption in line with a 1.5°C world.
A full analysis of food polices in all G20 countries is beyond
the scope of this report and therefore we are using NDGs as
an important starting point to determine if current policies
are ambitious enough to keep warming to 1.5°C.
Leading
the Way
Diets For a Better Future
19
Food consumption patterns in G20 countries
Despite significant variations when it comes to food
consumption patterns across the G20 countries, there
are some important shared characteristics. With a few
exceptions, food consumption patterns across these
countries are characterized by an overconsumption of
limited and optional foods. Across all countries, there
is universal underconsumption of emphasized foods.
Furthermore, NDGs for emphasized foods are roughly in
line (except for nuts and legumes) with the Planetary Health
Diet, whereas most NDGs recommend higher consumption
of optional and limited intake foods compared to the
Planetary Health Diet (Figure 8).
Leading the Way
Figure 8
Total average consumption* patterns and NDG recommendations for
the G20 compared to optimal intake levels outlined in the Planetary
Health Diet. Data from Springmann et al. (2020).24
*For the analysis in this report, whole grain and starchy vegetable
consumption are not shown due to lack of sufficient data across all
countries. Data on root vegetables was used to attain calorie balance
in the analysis.
Emphasized foods Optional foods Limited foods
0%
500%
% above or below the optimal intake level
400%
300%
200%
100%
600%
Eggs Sugar Red
meat
VegetablesLegumesNuts Fish DairyPoultryFruit
Current consumption and NDGs for
G20 countries compared to optimal intake Current Consumption
National Dietary Guidelines
Planetary Health Diet
Diets For a Better Future
20
Both current consumption and NDG recommended intake
of red meat in most G20 countries are above intake levels to
optimize human health (Figure 9), and more than half of the
countries have current consumption patterns between three
to five times the maximum optimal intake value of 28 g/day
in the Planetary Health Diet.
Dairy consumption is slightly more aligned intake levels to
optimize human health with half of the countries providing
recommendations that fall within the intake range of 0 to
500 g/day. However, only Japan and South Africa have
recommendations that are at or below the 250g/day optimal
intake level, whereas China and India are just slightly above
(Figure 10).
Meat
Dairy
Re
Fruit recommendations in most G20 countries are at or
above the optimal intake level of 200 g/day in the
Planetary Health Diet, but current consumption is below
this level in all countries except Brazil, Turkey, Canada,
Italy, and France (Figure 11). Most countries provide
recommendations within the optimal intake range of 100 to
300 g/day.
Fruit
Re
All countries, with the exception of Brazil*, France* and
UK*, have recommendations for vegetable consumption
that are within optimal intake range of the Planetary Health
Diet (200-600 g/day) although consumption levels in all
countries are below this optimal intake range except for
Turkey, EU28, Italy, USA, South Korea, and China (Figure 12).
Vegetables
NDG recommendations for legumes is at or above the
Planetary Health Diet optimal intake level of 75 g/day in only
five countries, and current consumption is far below this
intake level in all G20 countries (Figure 13). However, most
countries provide recommendations that fall within the
optimal intake range of 0 to 100 g/day.
Legumes
Nut consumption data shows the greatest deviation from
the Planetary Health Diet optimal intake level of 50 g/day,
with both NDGs recommendations and consumption well
below this intake level (Figure 14). However, all countries
provide NDG recommendations that fall within the optimal
intake range of 0 to 75 g/day.
Nuts
G20 consumption patterns and NDG recommendations by food groups
*Some countries may decide to not offer quantitative targets because these will vary substantially depending on body size and physical activity. For this analysis,
however, quantified targets were needed to compare consumption patterns and GHG emissions and every effort was made to translate all targets into comparable
quantified targets. When this was not possible (e.g. Canada), then NDG targets were aligned with current consumption levels. This assumption could have an impact in
accurately assessing NDG targets in countries that currently do not offer quantified targets.
Diets For a Better Future
21
Increased risk
500
750
1,250
1,500
grams/day
1,000
250
0
G20 Countries
Optimal
intake range:
0–500g
Dairy
Current Consumption
National Dietary Guidelines
Planetary Health Diet
ARG
AUS
BRA
CAN
CHN
DEU
EU28
FRA
GBR
IDN
IND
ITA
JPN
KOR
MEX
RUS
SAU
TUR
USA
ZAF
0
100
120
140
160
80
60
40
ARG
AUS
BRA
CAN
CHN
DEU
EU28
FRA
GBR
IDN
G20 Countries
IND
ITA
JPN
KOR
MEX
RUS
SAU
TUR
USA
ZAF
20Optimal
intake range:
0–28g
Increased risk
Red meat
grams/day
Current Consumption
National Dietary Guidelines
Planetary Health Diet
Figure 9.
Current red meat consumption in each G20 country compared
to individual country NDGs and the Planetary Health
Diet (orange dashed line represents optimal red meat intake
level of 14 g/day with optimal intake range of 0 to 28 g/day
shown in unshaded area). Outside optimal intake range represents
increased risk to human heath and the environment.
Data from Springmann et al. (2020).24
Figure 10.
Current dairy consumption* in each G20 country compared
to individual country NDGs and Planetary Health Diet (orange
dashed line represents optimal dairy intake level of 250 g/day
with optimal intake range of 0 to 500 g/day shown in unshaded
area). Outside optimal intake range represents increased
risk to human health and the environment. Data from Springmann
et al. (2020).24
*Dairy consumption is represented in milk equivalents. Some
dairy products, such as cheese, use a large amount of milk
to make the product (e.g. 50g cheese = approximately 500g
milk) and therefore have a higher emissions footprint.
Leading the Way
Diets For a Better Future
22
0
100
200
300
400
G20 Countries
Optimal
intake range:
100–300g
Fruit
grams/day
Current Consumption
National Dietary Guidelines
Planetary Health Diet
ARG
AUS
BRA
CAN
CHN
DEU
EU28
FRA
GBR
IDN
IND
ITA
JPN
KOR
MEX
RUS
SAU
TUR
USA
ZAF
0
700
G20 Countries
100
200
300
400
500
600
Optimal
intake range:
200–600g
Vegetables
grams/day
Current Consumption
National Dietary Guidelines
Planetary Health Diet
ARG
AUS
BRA
CAN
CHN
DEU
EU28
FRA
GBR
IDN
IND
ITA
JPN
KOR
MEX
RUS
SAU
TUR
USA
ZAF
Figure 11.
Current fruit consumption in each G20 country compared to
individual country NDGs and Planetary Health Diet (orange
dashed line represents optimal fruit intake level of 200 g/
day with optimal intake range of 100 to 300 g/day shown in
unshaded area). Data from Springmann et al. (2020).24
Figure 12.
Current vegetable consumption in each G20 country
compared to individual country NDGs and Planetary Health
Diet (orange dashed line represents optimal vegetable intake
level of 300 g/day with optimal intake range of 200 to 600 g/
day shown in unshaded area). Data from Springmann et al.
(2020).24
Leading the Way
Diets For a Better Future
23
0
G20 Countries
Optimal
intake range:
0–75g
100
80
60
40
20
Current Consumption
National Dietary Guidelines
Planetary Health Diet
grams/day
Nuts
ARG
AUS
BRA
CAN
CHN
DEU
EU28
FRA
GBR
IDN
IND
ITA
JPN
KOR
MEX
RUS
SAU
TUR
USA
ZAF
0
G20 Countries
Optimal
intake range:
0–100g
100
75
50
25
200
225
175
150
125
grams/day
Legumes
Current Consumption
National Dietary Guidelines
Planetary Health Diet
ARG
AUS
BRA
CAN
CHN
DEU
EU28
FRA
GBR
IDN
IND
ITA
JPN
KOR
MEX
RUS
SAU
TUR
USA
ZAF
Figure 13.
Current legume consumption in each G20 country
compared to individual country NDGs and Planetary Health
Diet (orange dashed line represents optimal legume intake
level of 75 g/day with optimal intake range of 0 to 100 g/
day shown in unshaded area). Data from Springmann et al.
(2020).24
Figure 14.
Current nut consumption in each G20 country compared to
individual country NDGs and Planetary Health Diet (orange
dashed line represents optimal nut intake level of 50 g/day
with optimal intake range of 0 to 75 g/day shown in unshaded
area). Data from Springmann et al. (2020).24
Leading the Way
Diets For a Better Future
24
Food-related GHG emissions in each G20 country can be
seen in Figure 15 below. Total emissions in G20 countries
are approximately 3.7 Gt CO2eq of a total 5.6 Gt CO2eq or
66% of current total global food-related GHG emissions.
These emissions are driven both by total population in
each country and individual food consumption patterns.
Currently, the top five most populous countries in the
G20 (excluding the EU28) are China, India, United States,
Indonesia, and Brazil, which are also the countries with the
highest total GHG emissions from food production.26
The Climate
Impact – Food
Emissions in
the G20
Diets For a Better Future
25
Food consumption patterns that align with current NDGs
would reduce total GHG emissions for most G20 countries.
If NDGs are universally followed in each country, GHG
emissions would be reduced by approximately 19%, while
adopting the Planetary Health Diet would reduce food
related emissions in G20 countries by nearly 46%. These
reductions are mainly achieved through reductions in red
meat and dairy consumption. However, adoption of NDGs
or the Planetary Health Diet does not reduce GHG emissions
in all countries. India and Indonesia would see their total
food-related GHG emissions increase slightly if either
was adopted in each country. This is most likely because
both countries still face burdens of under-nutrition27,28 and
adoption of either the NDGs or the Planetary Health Diet
would result in increased consumption of nearly all food
groups including red meat and dairy.
The Climate Impact – Food Emissions in the G20
Figure 15.
Total food-related GHG emissions in G20 countries vs the Rest of the
World; all figures are Gt C02eq. Current consumption patterns globally
exceed the planetary boundary for food by 0.6 Gt CO2 eq while following
either NDGs or the Planetary Health Diet could reduce emissions to
within the 5.0 Gt CO2eq boundary, with various GHG distribution
scenarios presented. Data from Springmann et al. (2020).24
China
918
USA
195
EU28
191
Mexico
91
Brazil
314
Indonesia
192
India
632
Japan
62
Italy
36
Australia
38
South Korea15
Turkey
35 27
France
47
UK
5559
Germany
47
Canada
42
South Korea
34 South Africa33
26
19
China
1,078
Brazil
426
USA
316
EU28
259
Mexico
101
Australia
96
France
73
UK
66
Germany
64
Russia
142
Indonesia
142
Japan
59
Italy
51
Canada
42
Argentina
107
India
573
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Planetary boundary for food:
5.0 Gt CO2eq
Planetary boundary for food:
5.0 Gt CO2eq
Indonesia
236
USA
84
EU28
79
Russia
52
Mexico
33
Japan
31
Germany
24
France
19
Brazil
92 13 11
13
Italy
1517
14 13
592
India
572
China
20
UK
Canada
Argentina
Turkey
Australia
Saudi Arabia
South Africa
Potential of reducing emissions from
food consumption patterns in G20 countries
G20
3.7 Gt CO2eq
Rest of the World
1.9 Gt CO2eq
G20
3.0 Gt CO2eq
Rest of the World
2.0 Gt CO2eq
G20
2.0 Gt CO2eq
Rest of the World
3.0 Gt CO2eq
Current consumption If NDGs are followed↓↓ ↓ If the Planetary Health
Diet is followed
Current Emissions:
5.6 Gt CO2eq
14
South KoreaSouth Africa
Argentina
Diets For a Better Future
26
Per capita GHG emissions
Per capita emissions tell a different story, with Australia,
Argentina, Canada, and France having the highest per
capita food-related GHG emissions of G20 countries,
while China and India some of the lowest. Again, NDGs
and the Planetary Health Diet decrease per capita emissions
in all countries with the exceptions of both India and
Indonesia, where per capita emissions rise slightly when
compared with baseline emission levels (Figure 16).
The Climate Impact – Food Emissions in the G20
Figure 16.
Per capita emissions in each G20 country for current consumption
patterns and if national dietary guidelines (NDGs) are followed. The
orange dashed line represents the 5.0 Gt global planetary boundary for
food consumption translated into a per capita planetary boundary for
food consumption. It is difficult to propose a single per capita boundary
for food consumption because the actual per capita boundary would
vary depending on local conditions. However, this exercise allows us
to see roughly the level of ambition needed in each country to ensure
food-related emissions are compatible with a 1.5ºC world. Data from
Springmann et al. (2020).24
*NDGs are not available in these countries.
0 2
Emissions in tCO2eq Emissions in tCO2eq
1 43
AUS
ARG
BRA
CAN
FRA
GBR
USA
RUS
MEX
ITA
CHN
DEU
KOR
SAU
ZAF
IDN
EU28
IND
JPN
TUR
AUS
ARG
BRA
CAN
FRA
GBR
USA
RUS*
MEX
ITA
CHN
DEU
KOR
SAU*
ZAF
IDN
EU28
IND
JPN
TUR
0 21 43
Nil
Nil
Planetary boundary
for food
Planetary boundary
for food
Per capita GHG emissions from food
consumption patterns in G20 countries
Current Consumption
National Dietary Guidelines
Diets For a Better Future
27
In addition to setting scientific targets for healthy diets
and sustainable food production, the EAT-Lancet
Commission sought to determine if it was possible to
achieve these targets while feeding 10 billion people. In
short, the answer is yes, but just barely. Feeding 10 billion
people a healthy flexitarian diet (e.g. Planetary Health Diet)
within the 5 Gt CO2eq GHG planetary boundary for food
production requires a theoretically near universal adoption
of healthy diets across the globe by 2050, improvements in
technology and management at the farm level and halving
food loss and waste.
In the previous section we assessed food consumption
in G20 countries. In this section we use these results to
draw insights on the global implications of current food
consumption patterns in G20 countries and how the
5 Gt CO2eq food budget may need to be more equitably
distributed to achieve healthy diets for all.
Achieving Healthy
Diets for All
Within Planetary
Boundaries
Diets For a Better Future
28
Numerous studies in recent months have demonstrated that
a shift toward healthy diets, such as the Planetary Health
Diet, is the single greatest lever for reducing food related
GHG emissions.1,2,4,17 The Exponential Roadmap4 report
built upon this growing body of scientific evidence and
outlined specific solutions to halve current levels of global
GHG emissions by 2030. For food consumption, achieving
this required different approaches for G20 countries than
for the rest of the world. First, a rapid rise in food-related
emissions (from 5.6 to 6.8 Gt by 2030) must be prevented
by reversing shifts in many developing countries towards
unhealthy “Western” diets. Second, countries with high
food-related emissions (i.e. many of the G20 countries) must
rapidly adopt healthy flexitarian diets, such as the Planetary
Health Diet. When these approaches are coupled with a
50% reduction in food loss and waste, global food-related
emissions can be brought within the planetary climate
boundary for food by 2050 (see Figure 3).
Achieving Healthy Diets for All Within Planetary Boundaries
Reducing emissions to within
the planetary climate boundary
for food can be accomplished by
preventing an unhealthy dietary
transition in many parts of world
and implementing ambitious dietary
shifts in G20 countries with at
least 40% of the global population
adopting healthy diets by 2030
and 75% by 2050. This dietary shift
must also be coupled with efforts to
reduce food loss and waste by 50%.
Diets For a Better Future
29
100%
200%
50%
Planetary
boundary
for food
Projected food-related GHG emissions if
G20 consumption patterns are adopted globally
If NDGs were followed↓Current consumption↓ ↓ If the Planetary Health
Diet was followed
0%
300%
+263%
+178%
–1%
% above or below the planetary boundary for food
Figure 17.
The projected impact on food-related GHG emissions by 2050 if either current
consumption patterns or NDGs of G20 countries are adopted globally and if a
local adaptation of the Planetary Health Diet is adopted in all countries. Each case
assumes improvements in technology and management at the farm level, as well
as reductions in food loss and waste see Springmann et al. (2018).29 The orange
dashed line represents the planetary climate boundary for food. Data from
Springmann et al. (2020).24
An unsustainable path
The previous section highlighted that current food
consumption patterns in G20 countries could be more
healthy and sustainanble, and largely trending in the wrong
direction. If these trends continue within and beyond the
G20 countries, food-related GHG emissions
will exceed the 5 Gt CO2eq climate boundary for food by
approximately 263% by 2050 (Figure 17). The majority
of these emissions in G20 countries arises from an
overconsumption of limited intake and optional foods
in nearly every country, trends that are also on the rise
elsewhere. However, even if the NDGs of G20 countries
are adopted globally, the planetary climate boundary for
food would still be exceeded by approximately 178%. This
highlights that current NDGs are not ambitious enough to
keep total global warming to 1.5ºC.
Global adoption of the Planetary Health
Diet would decrease emissions to within
the planetary GHG boundary for food
but requires near universal adoption
(Figure 17).
When coupled with a 50% reduction in food loss and waste,
a 75% global adoption of the Planetary Health Diet would
reduce emissions within the global boundary for food
(Figure 17). However, when significant changes in food
production are combined with a dietary shift and halving of
food loss and waste, there is evidence that we can produce
food for 10 billion people within all planetary boundaries
(i.e. climate, land-use, water, nitrogen, phosphorus, and
biodiversity loss) for food.2
Achieving Healthy Diets for All Within Planetary Boundaries
Diets For a Better Future
30
Unbalanced global consumption of food
Currently the food systems in G20 countries are emitting
approximately 3.7 Gt CO2eq, nearly 75% of the total global
carbon budget for food. The grand challenge facing
humanity is how we will sustainably feed healthy diets to
nearly 10 billion people by 2050 and do this within the
planetary boundary for food-related GHG emissions, a
boundary we are already exceeding by 12% (see Figure 18).
The majority of the projected population increase will take
place in developing countries,30 many of which are facing
high rates of malnutrition with nearly 820 million people
currently suffering from hunger and hundreds of millions
from stunting and wasting.2
Figure 18.
Scenarios of current and future distributions of total global foodrelated
emissions. Currently, G20 countries are consuming the
majority of the total global carbon budget for food. However, adoption
of the Planetary Health Diet in G20 countries will help to more
equitably balance the total global carbon budget for food especially
as population grows in non G20 countries. The orange dashed line
represents the 5 Gt CO2eq planetary climate boundary for food
production, which is currently exceeded by approximately 12%. Data
from Springmann et al. (2020).24
34%
Rest of the World
66%
G20
40%
Rest of the World
19%
reduction
Additional
28%
reduction
60%
G20
61%
Rest of the World
39%
G20
Planetary boundary for food:
5.0 Gt CO2eq
Planetary boundary for food:
5.0 Gt CO2eq
Current consumption If NDGs are followed↓↓ ↓ If the Planetary Health
Diet is followed
Current Emissions:
5.6 Gt CO2eq
Scenarios of a more equitable distribution
of the global carbon budget for food
Achieving Healthy Diets for All Within Planetary Boundaries
Diets For a Better Future
31
Central to solving this dilemma is a more equitable
distribution of the global carbon budget for food to enable
all countries to alleviate all forms of malnutrition, while
keeping total food-related GHG emissions within the
planetary climate boundary for food (Figure 18). To do this
we need to lower total global food related emissions from
5.6 Gt CO2eq to at least 5.0 CO2eq by rapidly shifting diets in
G20 countries to healthy and sustainable diets that are more
ambitious than those currently proposed by NDGs. This
would require an on average approximate halving of current
per capita GHG emissions in G20 countries. In addition, we
need to work to ensure that unhealthy diets are not adopted
in parts of the world where current consumption aligns
more closely with healthy flexitarian diets. Overconsumption
of red meat, highly processed foods, and sugar in these
countries will not only result in higher incident of poor
health, but also in a nearly doubling of current food-related
GHG emissions.
Although we use 2050 as a cutoff in the analysis done for
this report, the issues discussed extend well beyond 2050.
Global population is expected to exceed 11 billion people
by 2100 unless actions are taken to stabilize population
Achieving Healthy Diets for All Within Planetary Boundaries
growth.31 A recent analysis by Gerten (et al. 2020) showed
that it is possible to feed 10 billion people within planetary
boundaries but only with a transformation toward more
sustainable production and consumption patterns. However,
ensuring healthy and sustainable diets to everyone on the
planet becomes increasingly unlikely past this population
threshold.32
A "win-win" solution for people and planet
Rebalancing the global distribution of food emissions as
outlined in Figure 18 would not only keep total global food
related emissions within the planetary climate boundary
for food but would also have the co-benefit of improving
and saving lives. The EAT-Lancet Commission showed
that adopting the Planetary Health Diet would save
approximately 11 million lives per year.2 Current NDGs in G20
countries are not ambitious enough to meet climate goals
but they will help countries make progress toward achieving
the SDG Goal 3 Target 3.4 of reducing premature mortality
by 2030.33 However, adopting more ambitious dietary
patterns, such as the Planetary Health Diet, would enable
these countries to achieve additional SDGs.
Diets For a Better Future
32
The IPCC 1.5 Special Report and other recent research
firmly conclude that stabilizing temperature at 1.5°C
above pre-industrial levels is essential and will require
an extraordinary transformation of lifestyles, behaviors,
norms and values in our society.1,4,11,12 Not doing so risks
the potential of crossing irreversible climate tipping
points which may result in a cascade of unstoppable or
runaway events such as the irreversible loss of ice sheets
or forests.34 These tipping points could be exceeded even
between 1°C and 2°C of warming, which makes the 1.5°C
target even more critical.12 Despite this existential threat to
humanity, current country level commitments (i.e. Nationally
Determined Contributions or NDCs) puts the world on a
path of at least 3.0°C warming. To make matters worse,
emissions are currently rising at a rate of 1.5% per year with
G20 countries being responsible for approximately 78% of
global emissions.35
The Carbon Law outlines the pace of change required to
limit global warming to 1.5°C by 2100 for all sectors (see
Figure 2). However, as pointed out in this report, foodrelated
emissions are slightly different. The global objective
with the food sector should be to prevent current food
related emissions from rising further and reduce current
total food-related emissions roughly 12%, from 5.6 Gt CO2eq
to 5.0 Gt CO2eq. When coupled with reductions in food loss
and waste, this can be achieved by a 40% global shift to
healthy and sustainable diets by 2030 and 75% by 2050.4
The majority of this 40% shift by 2030 toward healthy
flexitarian diets needs to happen in the G20 countries as
these are the countries that currently have the largest foodrelated
GHG emissions.
A Roadmap
for Change
Diets For a Better Future
33
A Roadmap for Change
However, consumption patterns in G20 countries vary
considerably and some countries will require deeper
transformations than others and adoption of more
ambitious NDGs.
If the global population followed current
consumption patterns in individual G20
countries or adopted their NDGs only
India and Indonesia would have food
consumption patterns that are within
the planetary climate boundary for food
(Figures 19 and 20).
Global adoption of current food consumption patterns in
G20 countries would require between one to nearly 7.4
Earths (Figure 19). NDGs perform slightly better but are still
not ambitious enough to stay within the planetary boundary
for food-related GHG emissions for most countries. Global
adoption of the NDGs of G20 countries would require
between one to nearly 4.7 Earths (Figure 20). Only global
adoption of the NDGs of Indonesia and India would keep
total global emissions within the boundary.
Figures 19 and 20.
By 2050, the number of Earths that would be needed (ecological foodprint)
to support food production within the planetary climate boundary if
all countries globally adopted either current consumptions patterns or the
NDGs of individual G20 countries. Data from Springmann et al. (2020). 24
*Current consumption estimates were used since NDGs do not exist.
The power is on our plates.
Choosing healthy and sustainable
food is one of the single most
powerful actions that an individual can
take to combat climate change. G20
countries can use ambitious NDGs to
influence these choices.
1
Many G20 countries have taken
significant steps to promote
more plant-based diets, but
it’s time to raise ambition from
incremental to exponential
action. We need global cooperation
to ensure that all NDGs are aligned with
achieving the SDGs and Paris Agreement.
2
Raising the ambition of NDGs
is a “win-win” solution for
people and planet. This would
enable all countries to alleviate all forms
of malnutrition while keeping total
food-related GHG emissions within the
planetary climate boundary for food.
3
A food system transformation
will look differently in each G20
country. There is no single policy that
can account for the socio-economic and
environmental diversity found each G20
country and although a global issue,
solutions to transform the food system
must be nation specific.
5
The magnitude of the shift toward
healthy flexitarian diets will not
be the same in all countries. Some
G20 countries will require more ambitious
reductions of per capita emissions while
others will require less.
4
Raising the ambition of NDGs
can help create coherent public
health, agricultural, and food
policies. This is an opportunity to
ensure policy measures and individual
food consumption choices, alike, are
driving in the same direction to enable
optimization of behavior changes from
top-down and bottom-up approaches.
7
Adopting a healthy flexitarian
diet can restore the planet. Doing
so would reduce food-related GHG
emissions globally below the planetary
climate boundary for food while at the
same time saving millions of lives.
6
Critical
Conclusions
Diets For a Better Future
35
Methodology Used
in this Report
Given that many NDGs do not provide quantitative
recommendations, a graded coding method was developed
in the analysis24 to extract quantitative values from each
guideline. To do this, the NDGs were reviewed with respect
to recommendations on a set of specific food groups
of interest (Figure 7). Then, the mix of quantitative and
qualitative recommendations found in those guidelines was
translated into quantitative representations of consumption
choices for each food group. Last, the representations were
applied to estimates of current intake per food group and
country. For analyzing the health and climate implications
of NDGs, a comparative risk assessment of diet-related
disease mortality, and food and country-specific emissions
footprints were used to assess chronic-disease mortality and
total GHG emissions for current consumption patterns in
each country and if the NDGs and the Planetary Health Diet
were adopted both nationally and at a global level. More
details on the methodology can be found in Springmann et
al. (2020).
Diets For a Better Future
36
Scope and
Limitations
Central to any assessment of diets needs to be an
understanding that diets provide an inextricable link between
human health and environmental sustainability. The EATLancet
report found that a shift toward the Planetary Health
Diet would save nearly 11 million lives while reducing
environmental impacts. In this report we acknowledge this
important link between human health and environmental
sustainability but focus the main assessment on climate
impacts. A more detailed assessment of the health impacts of
dietary guidelines can be found in Springmann et al. (2020).
The EAT-Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable
food systems developed quantitative global scientific targets
for healthy diets and sustainable food systems, and assessed
whether it was possible to achieve healthy diets for 10 billion
people within planetary boundaries. The Commission found
that this goal can be achieved but requires a combination of
substantial shifts toward mostly plant-based and flexitarian
dietary patterns, dramatic reductions in food loss and waste,
and major improvements in food production practices. In
this report, we use the scientific targets for healthy diets
and sustainable food production to assess national dietary
guidelines (NDGs) within G20 countries.
The world is made up of a variety of rich and vibrant diets and
culinary traditions including in G20 countries. We have chosen
to focus on the G20 in this assessment given their geopolitical
importance, the majority of the global population resides in
these countries, they produce a large share of the world’s food
supply and a majority of unsustainable and unhealthy food
consumption takes place within their borders (yet undernutrition
still persists!). In addition, the annual gatherings of
G20 leaders have evolved into a major forum for shaping the
global economic policy agenda and discussing pressing global
challenges. Transforming the global food system is one of the
most pressing issues of our time and it is high time that the
G20 summits and other gatherings focus on this critical policy
agenda.
A stable Earth system depends upon the continued functioning
of multiple biophysical systems, including climate change,
nitrogen and phosphorus cycling, freshwater use, land-system
change and biodiversity loss. There is also strong scientific
evidence that food production is among the largest drivers
of global environmental change due to its impact on most
biophysical systems. In this report, however, we focus solely
on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions given the particular
importance of this system in regulating and maintaining a
stable Earth system.
Diets For a Better Future
37
Glossary
And Country
Abbreviations C02eq
Carbon dioxide equivalent - measure used to compare the emissions from
various greenhouse gases based on their global warming potential
GHG
Greenhouse gas
G20
An international forum for the governments and central bank governors
from 19 countries and the European Union (EU)
NCD
Non-communicable disease
NDG
National Dietary Guideline
SDGs
Sustainable Development Goals
ARG
Argentina	
AUS
Australia
BRA
Brazil	
CAN
Canada		
CHN
China		
FRA
France		
DEU
Germany	
IND
India		
IDN
Indonesia	
ITA	
Italy	
JPN
Japan		
MEX
Mexico	
RUS
Russia		
ZAF
South Africa
SAU
Saudi Arabia
KOR
Korea	
TUR
Turkey		
GBR
United Kingdom
USA
United States
EU28
European Union
Diets For a Better Future
38
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Diets For a Better Future
39
About EAT
EAT is an Oslo based non-profit with a global mission
to transform our global food system through sound
science, impatient disruption and novel partnerships.
EAT is focused on shifting the global food system
toward a fair and sustainable model that promotes
health for both people and planet. Cutting across
sectors and disciplines, EAT brings together policy
makers, industry leaders, researchers and civil society
from around the world to develop realistic, practical
solutions that yield big impact and fast. Learn more
at www.eatforum.org. The EAT-Lancet report is
available to download https://www.thelancet.com/
commissions/EAT