Approaches to a risk research on Roman
antiquity
Why modern risk research does not consider antiquity.
Rolling the dice as the root of risk research.
How to calculate probability in antiquity.
PD Dr. Ulrike Ehmig
SFB 933 – TP A03-UP2
Ústav klasických studií
Masarykova univerzita
Brünn, 9.10.2017
Perception and Handling of Risks in Roman Antiquity
1. Monday, 9.10.2017
The term “risk”. Why modern risk research does not consider antiquity. Rolling the
dice as the root of risk research. How to calculate probability in antiquity?
2. Monday, 9.10.2017
Health risks: Sources of diseases and occupational risks. Indices of a reflected
perspective?
3. Tuesday, 10.10.2017
Ex voto: the prevention of risks with the help of the gods.
4. Tuesday, 10.10.2017
Geschenke und Gelübde: Donum dedit und votum solvit in lateinischen
Sakralinschriften
5. Thursday, 12.10.2017
Natural disasters: Sources of earthquakes, floods, famine and preventive measures.
6. Thursday, 12.10.2017
Risks in seafaring and ancient economy. The variety of measures in a central field of
ancient life. From risk-minimizing contracts to magical practices.
What is “risk”? Why modern risk research does not consider antiquity?
Risk: calculable probability of damage of a certain size
Risk: calculable probability of damage of a certain size
1250 „De Vetula“: list of the number of possible combinations of the dots for rolling
three dices
First approach to a calculation
of probability
Ps.-Ovidius, De Vetula (~ 1250)
Risk: calculable probability of damage of a certain size
1250 „De Vetula“: list of the number of possible combinations of the dots for rolling
three dices
Mid 17th century „Logic of Port Royal“: assessment of future events not only
according to possible advantages or disadvantages, but equally to its probability
Port Royal des Champs near Paris
Painting by Louise-Magdeleine Horthemels, ~ 1710
Risk: calculable probability of damage of a certain size
1250 „De Vetula“: list of the number of possible combinations of the dots for rolling
three dices
Mid 17th century „Logic of Port Royal“: assessment of future events not only
according to possible advantages or disadvantages, but equally to its probability
1713 Jakob Bernoulli „Ars conjectandi“: first calculation of probability and law of
large numbers
First calculation of probability
Jacob Bernoulli, Ars conjectandi
(Basel 1713)
Risk: calculable probability of damage of a certain size
1250 „De Vetula“: list of the number of possible combinations of the dots for rolling
three dices
Mid 17th century „Logic of Port Royal“: assessment of future events not only
according to possible advantages or disadvantages, but equally to its probability
1713 Jakob Bernoulli „Ars conjectandi“: first calculation of probability and law of
large numbers
30s of the 18th century. Daniel Bernoulli: one and the same risks are perceived
differently
Risk: calculable probability of damage of a certain size
1250 „De Vetula“: list of the number of possible combinations of the dots for rolling
three dices
Mid 17th century „Logic of Port Royal“: assessment of future events not only
according to possible advantages or disadvantages, but equally to its probability
1713 Jakob Bernoulli „Ars conjectandi“: first calculation of probability and law of
large numbers
30s of the 18th century. Daniel Bernoulli: one and the same risks are perceived
differently
Basics of modern risk research
Modern definition of Risk: calculable probability of damage of a certain size
Modern definition of Risk: calculable probability of damage of a certain size
no risk research for the period before the middle of the 17th century
no risk research for antiquity
Peter Lewyn Bernstein
Against the Gods. The remarkable
story of risk (1996)
Edwin G. Booz Prize for the most
insightful, innovative management
book published in 1996
Clarence Arthur Kelp/Elizur Wright
Memorial Award from The American
Risk and Insurance Association (ARIA)
as an outstanding original contribution
to the literature of risk and insurance
1998
more than 500.000 sold copies
But there exist numerous studies with usable approaches to a risk research on
antiquity.
In the following sessions, we will see some examples from different spheres of life.
First, however, we will discuss the roots of the ancient understanding of risk and
probability.
What role does the dice play for the idea of risk in the ancient world, and how did
the Ancient deal with probability?
Is it necessary that probability can be calculated to deal rationally with risks?
Modern definition of Risk: calculable probability of damage of a certain size
no risk research for the period before the middle of the 17th century
In Latin:
The meaning of „risk“ is closely linked to the term alea / dice
Thesaurus Linguae Latinae I / 7,
München 1991, s.v. alea
Alea used in a metaphoric sense in:
- historiography (Livius, Ammianus Marcellinus)
- administrative literature (Cassiodorus)
- specialist texts (Plinius, Frontinus, Varro, Columella)
- poetry and novels (Horatius, Ovidius, Petronius, Apuleius, Claudianus)
- letters and philosophical discourses (Cicero, Seneca, Sidonius Apollinaris)
- church historical and theological writings (Ps.-Hegesippus, Ambrosius)
- legal texts (Digesta, Codex Theodosianus)
Alea used in a metaphoric sense to describe risks
mainly from a Roman-Italian upper class
- in war: Hor. carm. 2, 1, 6 : opus plenum periculosae aleae
Ps.-Heges. 3, 17. 5, 30 : varia et incerta bellorum alea
Cod. Theod. 7, 17, 1 : ad belli aleam praeparatis
Cassiod. var. 3, 1, 1 : in aleam mittere
- in political issues: Liv. 42, 50, 2 : ut in aleam tanti casus se regnumque daret
Sen. clem. 1, 1, 7 : magnam adibat aleam populus Romanus
- in agriculture: Colum. 1 praef. 8 : maris et negotiationis alea
Varro rust. 1, 4, 4 : alea domini vitae ac rei familiaris
Colum. 3, 21, 6 : neglegentiae vindemiatoris alea
- when buying and selling: Pomp. dig. 18, 1, 8, 1 : emptio spei
- in philosophical discourses: Sen. epist. 99, 12 : nisi aleam in damnum certiorem
idea of risk linked to alea / dice remains the idea of an educated public
Astragal oracles: distribution and the example of Tyriaion
Probability (P) for each of the 56 possible combinations of dots
in an oracle where you roll the dice (astragal) five times
Oracle positive Oracle negative Oracle neutral
cf: A. Charpentier, Ajuster les tables de mortalité : le rôle des actuaires,
Risques 72, 2007, 127–130.
The life table of Ulpian and later authors
Edict of Ti. Iulius Alexander from the year
68 AD at the Hibis-Temple in Egypt
P. Oxy. XXXI 2561
– monthly military list of troop
strength and rations (293/305 AD)
SEG 55, 2005, 1264bis
Fragment of a parapegma from Milet
(Pergamonmus., Berlin, SK 1606)
for the annual calculation of needs