UNIIRECETOX Sj Baylor University E0321 Sustainable Development - The biggest challenge today? Michal Bittner, Ph.D. Centrum RECETOX Přírodovědecká fakulta Masarykova univerzita Brno, Česko Environmental Science Dpt. Baylor University Waco, Texas, USA Planetary Boundaries A safe operating space for humanity langing planet. Science, 16 January 2015, III. Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Earth-system process Control variable(s) Planetary boundary (zone of uncertainty) Current value of control variable Stratospheric ozone depletion (R2009: same) Stratospheric 03 concentration, DU <5% reduction from pre-industrial level of 290 DU (5%-10%), assessed by latitude Only transgressed over Antarctica in Austral spring (-200 DU) Boundary: Average cone, of stratospheric 03 no lower than 276 Dobson units Current level: 283 Dobson units Diagnosis: Safe, and improving Stratospheric ozone above Antarctica 300- * * * ■ • ** ■ •••• . 150 TOM*— * • NILU-UV-1 • OMI 1 DO IIPP|flllliPIF|i'*PIPI<'|'i—i i r i f p ■ i i fill p p i T J «i i ■■ i p i i i p p i ■ p i ■ i 1960 1970 1960 1990 3000 2010 Year Stratospheric 03 depletion - is it only the one environmental/health issue linked to 03? Start the presentation to see live content. For screen share software, share the entire screen. Get help at poLLev.com/app Significance of the Ozone Depletion Og- protection of biosphere against harmful UVB radiation Degradation of Q2 layer - CI- radicals from Chloro-fluoro-carbons (CFC, Freon) - Br- radicals from Bromo-fluoro-carbons (BFC, Halon) Degradation of Q2 layer - CI- radicals from Chloro-fluoro-carbons (CFC, Freon) - Br- radicals from Bromo-fluoro-carbons (BFC, Halon) Degradation of 0-» layer - NoO from fertilizers Ozone hole - ozone depletion primarily over the South pole area - however, significant Os depletion observed everywhere Průměrné množství ozónu, ČR, 1962-2002 335 -Průměr AVE + STD -Tříletý kl. průměr -- AVE - STD -Průměr (62-90) I I I I—r~r- —i—i i i—n—i—t—I—I—I—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—r~ 1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 L982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 300 350 DubSůri Units Consequences of O depletion What are the consequences of the stratospheric ozone depletion? Start the presentation to see live content. For screen share software, share the entire screen. Get help at poLLev.com/app Less 0? = more cancer 1% l cone. Os ~ 2% t intensity UVB ~ 4% t skin cancer hazard increased UV-H acule eye defects and cataract - majority of melanoms are on sunlit parts of the skin - greatest incidence in Australia Impact of increased UVB irradiator! on crop Possible changes in plant characteristics Consequences Selected sensitive crops ■ Reduced photosynthesis Rice ■ Reduced water-use efficiency Enhanced plant fragility Oats ■ Enhanced drought stress sensitivity ■ Reduced leaf area Growth limitation Sorghum ■ Reduced leaf conductance ■ Modified flowering (either inhibited or stimulated) Yield reduction Soybeans ■ Reduced dry matter production Beans NB: Summary conclusions from artificial exposure studies Source: modified from Krupa and Kicked (1989) by Runeckles and Krupa (1994) in: Fakhri Bazzaz, Wim Sombroek, Global Climate Change and Agricultural Production, FAO, Rome,1996. [ G » R »Í »D| ^UNEP V-1 ARENDA L J Ozone hole - solution Whta can we do with a stratospheric ozone depletion? Top Start the presentation to see live content. For screen share software, share the entire screen. Get help at poLLev.com/app Effect of accepted solutions 1985 - Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer 1987 - Montreal protocol + amendments THE EFFECTS OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL AMENDMENTS AND THEIR PHASE-OUT SCHEDULES Predicted abundance Thousand pans per trillion 15 Effective stratospheric chlorine' 10 No protocol Zero emissions ~i-1—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i 1960 2000 2020 2W0 2060 2080 2100 ■ Chlorine and oromine gre the molecules responsible for ozone depleoon "Effedive chlorine' is a way :80% of the pre-mdustrial aragonite saturation state of mean surface ocean, including natural diel and seasonal variability (>80%- >70%) -84% of the pre-industrial aragonite saturation state Planetary Boundaries A safe operating space for humanity Beyond zone of uncertainty (high risk) ■ In zone of uncertainty (increasing risk) ■ Below boundary (safe) ■ Boundary not yet quantified Source: Sleffen etal. Planetary Boundaries; Guiding human development on a changing planet Science, 16 January 2015. Design: Global Start the presentation to see live content. For screen share software, share the entire screen, GethelpatpoLlev.com/app Ocean acidification - what is the cause? 400 375 350 o o 325 300 Atmospheric CO, (ppmv) Seawater pC02 (uatm) Seawater pH T 1940 1950 1960 1970 ■ ■ ■ I ■ ■' 1980 Year Ocean Acidification HOWWILL CHANGES IN OCEAN CHEMISTRY AFFECT MARIN CO2 absorbed from the atmosphere CO2 + H2O + CO3 -> 2HCO3 carbon water carbonate dioxide ion bicarbonate ions consumption of carbonate ions impedes calcification Change in pH of oceans 1700-2000 A sea-surface pH [-] News Sport Weather Capital Future / Sho[ NEWS MAGAZINE V 9 UK Africa Asia Europe Latin America Mid-East US S Canada Business Health SciiEnvironr Magaiine In Pictures Also in the News Editors' Btog Have Your Say World News TV World Service F IBIBICI NEW News Front Page m Africa Americas Asia-Pacific Europe Middle East South Asia UK Business Health Science & Environment Technology Entertainment Also in the news Video and Audio Programmes Have Your Say In Pictures Country Profiles Special Reports Related BBC sites Sport News Sport Weather Travel TV Page last updated at 17:08 GMT, Sunday, 8 June 2008 18:08 UK I E-mail this to a friend B Printable version Natural lab shows sea's acid path By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News website Scientists study conditions at the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea Natural carbon dioxide vents on the sea floor are showing scientists how carbon emissions will affect marine life. Dissolved C02 makes water more acidic, and around the vents, researchers saw a fall in species numbers, and snails with their 26 March 2014 Last updated at 23:03 GMT una How climate change will acidify the oceans By Roger Harrabin BBC environment analyst. Norm-anby Island Off the remote eastern tip of Papua New Guinea a natural phenomenon offers an alarming glimpse into the future of the oceans, as increasing concentrations of C02 in the atmosphere make sea water more acidic. Streams of volcanic C02 bubbles emerge from deep under the seabed here, like a giant Jacuzzi. Ac tha hi ihhlQC nf i-artmn Hinvirio riiccnhm intn the uruttir r-nrhnnir- =sr-irl ic In today's Magazine One lonely man and his hoard of Nazi art Malaysia plane: 10 questions that are -*.....-----■—■ V and VI. Bioqeochemical flows of P and N Earth-system process Control variable(s) Planetary boundary (zone of uncertainty) Current value of control variable Biogeochemical flows: (P and N cycles) (R2009: Biogeochemical flows: (interference with P and N cycles)) P Global: P flow from freshwater systems into the ocean P Regional: P flow from fertilizers to erodible soils 11 Tg P yr"1 (11-100 Tg P yr"1) -22 Tg P yr-1 N Global: Industrial and intentional biological fixation of N 6.2 Tg yr 1 mined and applied to erodible (agricultural) soils (6.2-11.2 Tg yr-1). Boundary is a global average but regional distribution is critical for impacts. 62 Tg N yr-1 (62-82 Tg N yr-1). Boundary acts as a global Valve' limiting introduction of new reactive N to Earth System but regional distribution of fertilizer N is critical for -14 g P yr l -150 Tg N yr-1 Planetary Boundaries A safe operating space for humanity Beyond zone of uncertainty (high risk) ■ In zone of uncertainty (increasing risk) ■ Below boundary (safe) ■ Boundary not yet quantified Source: Sleffen etal. Planetary Boundaries; Guiding human development on a changing planet Science, 16 January 2015. Design: Global N - Nitrogen - natural qeochemical cycle Denitrifying bacteria Nitrifying bacteria Nitrites (N02~) Nitrogen-fixing soil bacteria Nitrifying bacteria Copyri^iiQ Pearson Education, Inc , publishing as Benjamin Cummiro.3 N - Nitrogen I Unbalancing the cycle Nitrogen flows, megaton nes 1390 r Lightning Atmospheric nitrogen Bacterid fixation a 1 Wild plaints Source: Galloway a nd fowling, .dmir'o N - Nitrogen I today, human activity changes more N2to reactive forms of N than all terestrial processes together Haber-Bosch 80 MtN/yr, leguminosis 40 MtN/yr, fossil fuels combustion 20 MtN/yr, biomass combustionIO MtN/yr Unbalancing the cycle Nitrogen flows, megatonnes 1890 r Lightning Atmospheric nitrogen fixation Wild plants Farms] 1990 Lightning Atmospheric nitrogen Wild i plants Farms Source: Galloway and Cowling, Ambia N - Nitrogen - major reason of N2 fixation ? NITROGEN POLLUTION The amount of reactive nitrogen released into the environment is increasing • Total human input • Fertiliserand industrial uses • Nitrogen fixation in agri-ecosystems • Fossil fuels 3D0-I N - Nitrogen - major reason of N2 fixation ? - N-fertilizers - significant part ends in water -eutrofication and nitrates issue - significant part ends in atmosphere N20 is GHG and 03decomp. - owerall decrease of resilience of planetary systems thanks to high input of reactive nitrogen molecules NITROGEN POLLUTION The amount of reactive nitrogen released into the environment is increasing • Total human input • Fertiliserand industrial uses • Nitrogen fixation in agri-ecosystems • Fossil fuels 3D0- P - phosphorus - natural qeochemical cycle Copyň^n© P&ereon Education, lne , puWÍ3hingas Benjemin Cummings P- phosphorus - primary source - weathering or apatite mining - anthropogenic flow to oceans - 8-9x higher amount - from 20 MtN/yr industr. P - half ends in oceans - higher risk of anoxic events 1800 1810 18201830 1840185018601870 1880 18901900 1910 1920 1930 19401950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Year P + N = anoxic zones in oceans 200 AND COUNTING The number of dead zones around the world if doubling every decade Start the presentation to see live content. For screen share software, share the entire screen, GethelpatpoLlev.com/app Deadly Trio in the oceans The oceans are heating, acidifying and choking 19:58 04 October 2013 by Fred Pearce For similar stories, visit the Climate Change Topic Guide We know the oceans are warming. We know they are acidifying. And now, to cap it all, it turns out they are suffocating, too. A new health check on the state of the oceans warns that they will have lost as much as 7 per cent of their oxygen by the end of the century The cascade of chemical and biological changes now under way could see coral reefs irreversibly destroyed in 50 to 100 years, with marine ecosystems increasingly taken over by jellyfish and toxic algal blooms. The review is a repeat of a study two years ago by the International Programme on the State of the Ocean [IPSO), a coalition of scientists. It concludes that things have become worse since the first study 'The health of the oceans is spiralling downwards far more rapidly than we had thought, exposing organisms to intolerable and unpredictable evolutionary pressure," says Alex Rogers at the University of Oxford, the scientific director of IPSO. Deadly trio Rogers describes a "deadly trio" of linked global threats. The first is global warming: surface sea water has been warming almost as fast as the atmosphere. The second is acidification - a result of the water absorbing ever more C02 from the atmosphere. The third is deoxygenation. UĽJMJIMfct,^ (äši) g+i 109 51% South America 60% Awitralis Distribution of very large rivers K Columbia -—Yangtze Amazon *0 Congo ■ Free-flowing Dammed or disrupted Sal ween —Mekong V I Murray THEODORE SICKLEY AND RYAN MORRIS, NG STAFF SOURCE NATURE Aral See - Kazachstan, Uzbekistan THE SHRINKING SEA The (hanged shape of trie Aral Sea since 1960 I960 Aralsk 1999 2002 2005 - a dam between N and South part was constructed what has happened? - 2005 - a dam between N and South part was constructed - what has happened? An original area of the Aral sea (1960) was Biggerthan Ofsimilar Smalerthan Czechia size to Czechia Czechia Start the presentation to see live content. For screen share software, share the entire screen. Get help at palLev.com/app THE SHRINKING SEA THE SHRINKING SEA The (hanged shape of the Aral Sea since 1960 I960 Araisk 1999 KAZAKHSTAN ^. -r*V:-' ■St. Czech Silesia * Muynak UZBEKISTAN 1UU Km Lake Hamoun - Iran, Afghanistan Areas and types of water consumption Pacific Ocean Industry widely dominant Industry and agriculture equally dominant Industry dominant with significant use by the domestic sector Pacific Ocean Domestic use widely dominant Domestic use and agriculture dominant Agriculture dominant with significant use by the domestic sector Agriculture widely dominant Agriculture dominant with significant use by the industrial sector Agriculture widely dominant with significant use by the industrial sector Source: Based on data fromTable FW1 in World Resources 2000-2001, People and Ecosystems: The Fraying Web of Life, World Resources Institute (WRI), Washington DC, 2000. _I Data not available PHII IPPE F1EKACEWICZ MARCH 2002 Water consumption - what does it mean? Start the presentation to see live content. For screen share software, share the entire screen. Get help at poLLev.com/app Areas and types of water scarcity Areas around the globe suffering from depleted water resources Physical water scarcity Water resource development is approaching or has exceeded sustainable limits. More than 751 of river Hi:w is extracied lor agriculture Approaching physical water scarcity More than 60% of river How is extracled. These areas will experience physical W3ter scarcity in the near luture □ 0 0 Economic water scarcity Limited access lo water even though natural local supplies a re available to meel human demands. Less than 251 of water extracted for human needs Little or no water scarcity Abundant water resources relative la use, with less than 25% of water extracted for human purposes Not estimated S VIII. Land use Earth-system process Control variable(s) Planetary boundary (zone of uncertainty) Current value of control variable Land-system charge (R2009: same) Global: Area of forested land as % of original forest cover Global: 75% (75-54%) Values are a weighted average of the three individual biome boundaries and their uncertainty zones 62% Biome: Area of forested land as % of potential forest Sj'ome: Tropical: 85% (85-60%) Temperate: 50% (50-30%) Boreal: 85% (85-60%) Planetary Boundaries A safe operating space for humanity Beyond zone of uncertainty (high risk) ■ In zone of uncertainty (increasing risk) ■ Below boundary (safe) ■ Boundary not yet quantified Source: Sleffen etal. Planetary Boundaries; Guiding human development on a changing planet Science, 16 January 2015. Design: Global Santa Cruz, Bolívia Figure 1. Extent of Cultivated Systems, 2000. Cultivated systems cover 24% of the terrestrial surface. Change in land system - agriculture (main driver) - In the last 50 years, change of the ice-free land to the agriculture land circa 0.8% per year - main force of the changes of ecosystem services and functions (e.g. food production, water cleaning, etc.), - habitat loss is a main force of biodiversity loss - it undermines human well-being and sustainability - exceeding the safe level of a land system change in a certain region can lead to a sudden change in the character of the landscape Change in land system - agriculture (main driver) In the last 50 years, change of the ice-free land to the agrJCl iro l^nrl rirra 0 ft% nor \/oar main Parts of Amazon close to tipping point funct , ... 13:52 05 March 2009 by Catherine Brahic lldUllc j por similar stories, visit the Endangered Species Topic Guide it und _ The Mato Grosso. the most scarred region of the Amazon rainforest, is eXCe( teetering on a deforestation "tipping point", and may soon be on a one-way Certai r0Ljte *° becoming a dry and relatively barren savannah. chara Monica Carneiro Alves denna and colleagues at the Federal University of Vicosa, Brazil, used computer models to simulate how the Amazon would recover from various amounts of deforestation. Their simulations ranged from a complete wipe-out of the entire forest to a situation where just one fifth of the forest would be removed. Optimistic future? Shrinking farmland For the first time, more land is being leftto return to nature than is being cleared for agriculture Percentage change in farmland between 2000 and 2015 Q Increase or stable □ -lto-4 □ -5 to-9 □ -10 to-14 □ -15 to-19 ■ -20 to -30 SOURCE: FAO(2017), doi.org/n2k