Planetary Boundaries A safe operating space for humanity 4&M Climate change X \V\ Si "5- 3" ■1/ Beyond zone of uncertainty (high risk) ■ In zone of uncertainty (increasing risk) n Below boundary (safe) ■ Boundary not yet quantified Source: Steffen etel Planetary Boundaries: Guiding human development on a changing planet. Science, 16 January 2015. Design: Global III. Stratospheric Ozone Depletion Earth-system Control Planetary boundary Current value of process variable(s) (zone of uncertainty) control variable Stratospheric Stratospheric 03 <5% reduction from pre- Only transgressed ozone concentration, DU industrial level of 290 DU over Antarctica in depletion (5%-10%), assessed by Austral spring (R2009: same) latitude (-200 DU) Boundary: Average cone, of stratospheric 03 no lower than 276 Dobson units Current level: 283 Dobson units Diagnosis: Safe, and improving Stratospheric ozone above Antarctica ■ * m m 3250— HaJley- • & -it c £ - * * ■ • 150 - TOMS -•*#. # • -_QMI- »_OMPS ^ * " 100 —■—i—I—I—I—i—■—■—i—I—I—I—i—■—I—I—I—I—i—■—■—i—I—I—I—i—■—i—I—I—I—i—■—■—I—I—I—I—i—■—i—I—I—I—I—■—■—i—I—I—I—i—■—i—I—I—I—i—■—■—i—I—I—I—I—r- I960 1970 I960 1990 r>CCC 2010 2020 Year History of Ozone Depletion Research 974 Stratospheric Chlorine: a Possible Sink for Ozone R. S. Stolárski and R.J. Cicerone. Space Physics Research Laboratory. 77iť Univrrsity of Michigan. Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105 Received January 18. 1974 This study proposes that t ho oxides of chlorine, Cl()ls may const i Lute an important sink for stratospheric ozoue. A píiolochemictii scheme is devised which includes two catalytic cycles through which CIO., destroys odd oxygen. The individual C1X constituents (HC1. CI, CIO, and OCIO) perform analogously to ihe respective constituents (HNO!h NO, NO;, and MO*) in the NO^ catalytic cycles, hut Lhc ozone destruction efficiency is ---J-„ r , /fci JJfit?, pp. SlO-ftt2, Jan* 28, 1974) Stratospheric sink for chlorofluoromethanes: chlorine atom-catalysed destruction of ozone Mario J. Molina & F. S. Rowland Department of Chemistry, University of California, Irvine. California Chlorofiuorometkanes arc being added to the environment in steadily increasing amounts. These compounds are chemically inert and may remain in the atmosphere for 40— 150 years, and concentrations run he expected tn reach 10 to 30 times present levels. Photudissociation of the chlorojiuorometlianes in the stratosphere produces significant amounts of chlorine atoms, and leads to the destruction of atmospheric ozone. efTcclivc: rates of vertical diffusion of molecules at these altitudes arc also subject to substantial uncertainties. Vertical mixing is frequently modelled through the use or 'aldy' diffusion cneffi-tfcrts1DJ,"u, which arc: presumably relatively insensitive to the molecular weight of the ditTusing species. Calculated using a time independent one-dimensional vertical diffusion model with eddy diffusion coefficients «f magnitude Jf - (3 x 10°}-10* cm1 at altitudes 20-40 km (reft 10, 11-13). the atmospheric lifetimes or CHC1, and Ct',CI, fall into (he range tif 40-150 it. The time required for approach toward a steady state is thus measured in decades, and the concentrations of chloro-nuorflmethancs in the atmosphejie can be expected to reach 1 atom of chlorine can decompose circa 100 000 03 molecules! 1978 - CFC (chloro-fluoro-carbons) banned in sprays in USA - CFC consumption in other applications, however, still grows CFC Füll ELECTRO CONMtf fc CLEANER . ■ fnt Evaporating ■ De «so .i'gii-n to pfeHii» * Do cviperociäi rapid« 1,400 ^ 1.200 ■ ä Loco c £ BOO I 600 400 200 0 ■B c a 1 / ' 1 /WW 1 \ ff ^ l V. HCFCs \ X 1 1 *J t 1 1 1 1 v— CFCs 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 FIGURE 5-1 World Production of Chlorofluorocarbons 1984 Halley Bay station in Antartica measured 40 % 03 decrease the same dramatic decrease verified in another station 1000 miles away o o O ~F5 450 350 S 5 S 3O0 200 S 1 SO * • ■ - * - » * • I * rs:: *i"*i* pi -readings H n oth e - _-* * ^ r iL " ■ * A i ; " - Octc ber readinqs -V L * * * " * * months - -1 -r I960 1970 19S0 1990 2000 201O FIGURE 5-4 Oione Measurements at Halley. Antarctica Large losses of total ozone in Antarctica reveal seasonal CIO*/NO* interaction J. C. Farman, B. G. Gardiner & J. D. Shaoktin British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, High Cross, Madingley Road, Cambridge CB3 OET, UK Recent attempts1'2 to consolidate assessments of the effect of human activities on stratospheric ozone (03) using one-dimensional models for 30° N have suggested that perturbations of total 03 will remain small for at least the next decade. Results from such models are often accepted by default as global estimates"1. The inadequacy of this approach is here made evident by observations that the spring values of totat Os in Antarctica have now fallen considerably. The circulation in the lower stratosphere is apparently unchanged, and possible chemical causes must be considered. We suggest that the very low temperatures which prevail from midwinter until several weeks after the spring equinox make the Antarctic stratosphere uniquely sensitive to growth of inorganic chlorine, C1X, primarily by the effect of this growth on the N02/NO ratio. This, with the height distribution of UV irradiation peculiar to the polar stratosphere, could account for the O, losses observed. Total 03 has been measured at the British Antarctic Survey ct-irinnc 4rnpnlinp Iclnnr-fc H° 6SS latitude 70S Stratospheric 03 depletion - is it only the one environmental/health issue linked to 03? Start the presentation to see live content. For screen share software, share the entire screen. Get help at pollev.com/app Significance of the Ozone Depletion Og- protection of biosphere against harmful UVB radiation Degradation of Q2 layer - CI- radicals from Chloro-fluoro-carbons (CFC, Freon) - Br- radicals from Bromo-fluoro-carbons (BFC, Halon) Degradation of Q2 layer - CI- radicals from Chloro-fluoro-carbons (CFC, Freon) - Br- radicals from Bromo-fluoro-carbons (BFC, Halon) Degradation of Q? layer - NoO from fertilizers Ozone hole - ozone depletion primarily over the South pole area - however, significant 03 depletion observed everywhere Consequences of O depletion What are the consequences of the stratospheric ozone depletion? Start the presentation to see live content. For screen share software, share the entire screen. Get help at pollev.com/app Less Og = more cancer 1% l cone. 03 ~ 2% t intensity UVB ~ 4% | skin cancer hazard Increased UV-E Efffects on the Environment urban pollution and material damage. Efffects on ,, _ . weekend Human Be ngs W^X^- and akin caneef malrutnUon acule eye defecfi and cataract - majority of melanoms are on sunlit parts of the skin - greatest incidence in Australia Impact of increased UVB irradiaton on crop Possible changes in plant characteristics Consequences Selected sensitive crops ■ Reduced photosynthesis ■ Reduced water-use efficiency ■ Enhanced drought stress sensitivity ■ Reduced leaf area ■ Reduced leaf conductance ■ Modified flowering (either inhibited or stimulated) ■ Reduced dry matter production Enhanced plant fragility Growth limitation Yield reduction Rice Oats Sorghum Soybeans Beans NB: Summary conclusions from artificial exposure studies. Source: modified from Krupa and Kickert (1989) by Runeckles and Krupa (1994) in: Fakhri Bazzaz, Wim Sombroek, Global Climate Change and Agricultural Production, FAO, Rome, 1996 ™^ [ G ■ R »Í» D IUNEP N-1 ARENDA L J Ozone hole - solution Whta can we do with a stratospheric ozone depletion? Top Start the presentation to see live content. For screen share software, share the entire screen. Get help at pollev.com/app Effect of accepted solutions 1985 - Vienna Convention for the Protection of the Ozone Layer 1987 - Montreal protocol + amendments THE EFFECTS OF THE MONTREAL PROTOCOL AMENDMENTS AND THEIR PHASE-OUT SCHEDULES Predicted abundance Thousand pans pef trillion IS in Effective stratospheric chlorine" No protocol Zero emissions ~i-1—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i—i 1380 2000 2020 2040 2000 2000 2100 " Chlorine and bromine gre 1he molecules responsible for oione depletxjn "Effecliw chlorine" is a way 80% of the pre-mdustrial aragonite saturation state of mean surface ocean, including natural diel and seasonal variability (>80%- >70%) -84% of the pre-industrial aragonite saturation state Planetary Boundaries A safe operating space for humanity riangtng planet, Sdence, 16 January 20^5. 400 Ocean acidification I 375 - what is the cause? 350 o Ü 325 300 275 Atmospheric C02 (ppmv) Seawater pC02 (patm) Seawater pH t 8.38 8.33 8.28 8.23 8.18 8.13 8.08 L8.03 X a 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Year 1990 2000 2010 Ocean Acidificatio HOW WILL CHANGES IN OCEAN CHEMISTRY AFFECT MAFU CO2 absorbed from the atmosphere consumption of carbonate ions impedes calcification Change in pH of oceans 1700-2000 A sea-surface pH [-] i i i— i— i I_I_I_I_I_-^-^H_I_I -0.12 -0.1 -0.08 -0.06 -0.04 -0.02 0 Change in pH of oceans - 3D distribution SHELL HELL Many creatures make their shells or skeletons from a form of calcium carbonate called aragonite. This is possible because, apart from the deepest waters, most seawater is supersaturated with carbonate ions (green areas). As C02 levels rise, the saturation horizon will move upwards and even some surface water will become undersaturated (red). Tropical corals thrive in water three or four times past me samrafron pome (danV green) Not modelled z o ü Hews Sport Weather Capital Future Shop] NEWS MAGAZINE 9 UK Africa Asia Europe Latin America Mid-East US & Canada Business Health SciiEnvironr „Natural laboratory" IBIBICI NEW News Front Page m Africa Americas Asia-Pacific Europe Middle East South Asia UK Business Health Science & Environment Technology Entertainment Also in the news Video and Audio Programmes Have Your Say In Pictures Country Profiles Special Reports Related BBC sites Sport News Sport Weather Travel TV Page last updated at 17:08 GMT, Sunday, 8 June 2008 18:08 UK I E-mail this to a friend B Printable version Natural lab shows sea's acid path By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News website Scientists study conditions at the bottom of the Mediterranean Sea Natural carbon dioxide vents on the sea floor are showing scientists how carbon emissions will affect marine life. Dissolved C02 makes water more acidic, and around the vents, researchers saw a fall in species numbers, and snails with their P.lagazine In Pictures Also in the News Editors'Blog Have Your Say World News TV World Service F 26 March 2014 Last updated at 23 03 GMT LÜlUÜ E □ Ö How climate change will acidify the oceans By Roger Harrabin BBC environment analyst, Normanby Island Off the remote eastern tip of Papua New Guinea a natural phenomenon offers an alarming glimpse into the future of the oceans, as increasing concentrations of C02 in the atmosphere make sea water more acidic. Streams of volcanic C02 bubbles emerge from deep under the seabed here, like a giant Jacuzzi. Ac the, hiihhloc nf r-arhnn riinviric riiccnluo intn the iratur r-arhnnir- ar-iri ic In today's Magazine One lonely man and his hoard of Nazi art Malaysia plane: 10 questions that are -------■—■ V and VI. Bioqeochemical flows of P and N Earth-system process Control variable(s) Planetary boundary (zone of uncertainty) Current value of control variable Biogeochemical flows: (P and N cycles) (R2009: Biogeochemical flows: (interference with P and N cycles)) P Global: P flow from freshwater systems into the ocean P Regional: P flow from fertilizers to erodible soils N Global: Industrial and intentional biological fixation of N 11 Tg P yr"1 (11-100 Tg P yr"1) 6.2 Tg yr 1 mined and applied to erodible (agricultural) soils (6.2-11.2 Tg yr-1). Boundary is a global average but regional distribution is critical for impacts. 62 Tg N yr-1 (62-82 Tg N yr-1). Boundary acts as a global Valve' limiting introduction of new reactive N to Earth System but regional distribution of fertilizer N is critical for impacts. -22 Tg P yr-1 -14 g P yr l -150 Tg N yr-1 Planetary Boundaries A safe operating space for humanity riangtng planet, Sdence, 16 January 20^5. Nitrogen - natural qeochemical cycle Denitrifying bacteria Mitrifying bacteria Nitrites (N02~) Nitrogen-fixing soil bacteria Nitrifying bacteria Cop/rir^n© Pearson Education, Inc , puWi3hingas Benjamin Cummirgs N - Nitrogen I Unbalancing the cycle Nitrogen flows, megatonnes 1390 r Lightning Atmospheric nitrogen Bacterial fixation Ssurce: Galloway a nd Cowling, .dmim N - Nitrogen I today, human activity changes more N2to reactive forms of N than all terestrial processes together Haber-Bosch 80 MtN/yr, leguminosis 40 MtN/yr, fossil fuels combustion 20 MtN/yr, biomass combustionIO MtN/yr Unbalancing the cycle Nitrogen flows, megatonnes 1390 r Lightning Atmospheric nitrogen fixation Farms] Lightning Atmospheric nitrogen Source: Galloway and Cowling, Ambia - Nitrogen major reason of N2 fixation ? NITROGEN POLLUTION The amount of reactive nitrogen released into the Environment is increasing I Total human input ► Fertiliser and industrial uses I Nitragen fixation in agri-ecosystems ► Fossil fuels "i-1-1-r 1900 1920 19W I960 1980 2000 g a N - Nitrogen - major reason of N2 fixation ? - N-fertilizers - significant part ends in water -eutrofication and nitrates issue - significant part ends in atmosphere N20 is GHG and 03decomp. - owerall decrease of resilience of planetary systems thanks to high input of reactive nitrogen molecules NITROGEN POLLUTION The amount of reactive nitrogen released into the Environment is increasing I Total human input ► Fertiliser and industrial uses I Nitrogen fixation in agri-ecosystems ► Fossil fuels "i-1-1-r 1900 1920 19W I960 1980" 2000 a l=: a P - phosphorus - natural qeochemical cycle Copyrignl Pearson Education, lne , puHi3hing as Benjamin Cummings P - phosphorus - primary source - weathering or apatite mining - anthropogenic flow to oceans - 8-9x higher amount - from 20 MtN/yr industr. P - half ends in oceans - higher risk of anoxic events Year P + N = anoxic zones in oceans 200 AMD COUNTING The number of dead tones around the world is doubling every decade P + N = anoxic zones in oceans i ANNUAL PLAGUE Every summer, oxygen levels in Chesapeake Bay plummet. Strong winds car make sjfface water pile up on one side of the bay, causing the dead zone to spill over into the shallow waters Dissolved oxygen (mg/l) «10.0 • SO 2.5 • 0.0 (dead zone) ^l^^pv i ) ,r HO WIND Dissolved oxygen in Chesapeake Bay in August 2005 WIND DIRECTION / Deadly trio Home I Environment I Life I News The oceans are heating, acidifying and choking ) 19:58 04 October 2013 by Fred Pearce For similar stories, visit the Climate Change Topic Guide We know the oceans are warming. We know they are acidifying. And now, to cap it all, it turns out they are suffocating, too. A new health check on the state of the oceans warns that they will have lost as much as 7 per cent of their oxygen by the end of the century The cascade of chemical and biological changes now under way could see coral reefs irreversibly destroyed in 50 to 100 years, with marine ecosystems increasingly taken over by jellyfish and toxic algal blooms. The review is a repeat of a study two years ago by the International Programme on the State of the Ocean [IPSO), a coalition of scientists. It concludes that things have become worse since the first study 'The health of the oceans is spiralling downwards far more rapidly than we had thought, exposing organisms to intolerable and unpredictable evolutionary pressure," says Alex Rogers at the University of Oxford, the scientific director of IPSO. Deadly trio Rogers describes a "deadly trio" of linked global threats. The first is global warming: surface sea water has been warming almost as fast as the atmosphere. The second is acidification - a result of the water absorbing ever more CO„ from the atmosphere. The third is deoxygenation. ti To se mi líbí □ Share wt |256| g+1 109 X Hyundai WO 2013,1.7 CRDl Simplified view of the nitrogen and phosphate cascade Unreactive di-nitrogen inair (N2) N, High temperature combustion Nr & industry Mineral phosphate (P04) m Fertilizer manufacture Crop biological nitrogen fixation CD Fertilizer manufacture Greenhouse gas balance Nitrous Oxide (Np) Stratospheric ozone loss Urban air Tropospheric Particulate quality ozone formation Matter Nitrogen Oxides (NOJ ▲ Ammonia (NH3! Ammonium nitrate in rain (NH4NQj) Crops for animal feed, human food & energy Manufactured detergents & other products Consumption by humans Manure Food & materials Livestock farming 1 Further Nr emission as NO.&Np carrying on the cascade ^ Terrestrial Eutrophi Natural ecosystems_ Soil acidification ^ Nitrate leaching (NOp, ►Phosphorus run-off (PO,1) plus Sewage N & P i Eventual denitrifkation of Nr to N^ atio N & P in streams, ^ lakes & coastal seas Key Intended N & P flows Unintended N & P flows r Environmental concern Freshwater Eutrophication Marine Eutrophication VII. Global freshwater consumption Earth-system process Control variable(s) Planetary boundary (zone of uncertainty) Current value of control variable Freshwater use (R2009: Global freshwater use) Global: Maximum amount of consumptive blue water use (km3yr_1) Basin: Blue water withdrawal as % of mean monthly river flow Global: 4000 km3 yr_1 (4000-6000 km3 yr"1) Basin: Maximum monthly withdrawal as a percentage of mean monthly river flow. For low-flow months: 25% (25-55%); for intermediate-flow months: 30% (30-60%); ""or high flow months; 55% (55-85%) -2600 km3 yr l Boundary: No more than 4000 km3 of fresh water consumed per year Current level: 2600 km3 per year Diagnosis: Boundary will be approached by mid-century Planetary Boundaries A safe operating space for humanity riangtng planet, Sdence, 16 January 20^5. FW issue - People are a dominant force changing flow of water in rivers - cca 25 % water does not reach the ocean - consequences for the biodiversity, 8 Mighty Rivers Run Dry From Overuse nutrition, aquatic and ——-- Main About the Freshwater Initiative Restoring Rivers Reducing Water Use News Videos terestrail ecosystems - The world's remaining free-flowing rivers Only 37 percent of world's largest rivers are free of dams or other disruptions. Free-flowing rivers are found primarily in the Amazon and Congo Basins, and in the Arctic. Percentage of very large rivers (longer than 1,000 km) that remain free-flowing, by continent ^ 250/0 ^ U% 33% North America Europe Jjyo ^ Asia 47% Africa 51% South America ' 60% Australia 1 Distribution of very large rivers I Columbia Amazon I Congo Free-flowing Dammed or disrupted Sal ween V \ Murray THEODORE SICKUEY AND RYAN MORRIS, NG STAFF SOURCE MATURE Aral See - Kazachstan, Uzbekistan THE SHRINKING SEA The tha nged shape of the Aral Sea since 1960 I960 Aralsk 1999 2002 - 2005 - a dam between N and South part was constructed - what has happened? - 2005 - a dam between N and South part was constructed - what has happened? An original area of the Aral sea (1960) was Biggerthan Ofsimilar Smalerthan Czechia size to Czechia Czechia Start the presentation to see live content. For screen share software, share the entire screen. Get help at pollev.com/app Lake Hamoun - Iran, Afghanistan Areas and types of water consumption Pacific Ocean Industry widely dominant Industry and agriculture equally dominant Industry dominant with significant use by the domestic sector Agriculture dominant with significant use by the domestic sector Agriculture dominant with significant use by the industrial sector Agriculture widely dominant with significant use by the industrial sector Source: Based on data fromTable FW1 in World Resources 2000-2001, People and Ecosystems: The Fraying Web of Life, World Resources Institute (WRI), Washington DC, 2000. I Data not available PHILIPPE REKACEWICZ MARCH 2002 Water consumption - what does it mean? Start the presentation to see live content. For screen share software, share the entire screen. Get help at pollev.com/app Areas and types of water scarcity Areas around the globe suffering from depleted water resources Physical water scarcity Water resource development is approaching or has exceeded sustainable limits. More than 751 of river Hi:w is extracted lor agriculture Approaching physical water scarcity More than 60% of river How is extratied. These areas will experience physical W3ter scarcity in the rear luture □ □ 0 Economic water scarcity Limited access lo water even though natural local supplies are available to meet human demands. Less than 251 of water extracted for human needs Little or no water scarrify Abundant water resources relative to use, with less than 25% of water extracted for human purposes Not estimated VIII. Land use Earth-system process Control variable(s) Planetary boundary (zone of uncertainty) Current value of control variable Land-system change (R2009: same) Global: Area of forested land as % of original forest cover Global: 75% (75-54%) Values are a weighted average of the three individual biome boundaries and their uncertainty zones 62% Biome: Area of forested land as % of potential forest Biome: Tropical: 85% (85-60%) Temperate: 50% (50-30%) Boreal: 85% (85-60%) Planetary Boundaries A safe operating space for humanity riangtng planet, Sdence, 16 January 20^5. Santa Cruz, Bolívia Figure 1. Extent of Cultivated Systems, 2000. Cultivated systems cover 24% of the terrestrial surface. Change in land system - agriculture (main driver) - In the last 50 years, change of the ice-free land to the agriculture land circa 0.8% per year - main force of the changes of ecosystem services and functions (e.g. food production, water cleaning, etc.), - habitat loss is a main force of biodiversity loss - it undermines human well-being and sustainability - exceeding the safe level of a land system change in a certain region can lead to a sudden change in the character of the landscape Change in land system - agriculture (main driver) In the last 50 years, change of the ice-free land to the agrJCl 'ltlirQ I^^H n\mc* O fto/> nor uoar Parts of Amazon close to tipping point 13:52 05 March 2009 by Catherine Brahic For similar stories, visit the Endangered Species Topic Guide The Mato Grosso, the most scarred region of the Amazon rainforest, is teetering on a deforestation "tipping point", and may soon be on a one-way route to becoming a dry and relatively barren savannah. Monica Carneiro Alves Senna and colleagues at the Federal University of Vicosa, Brazil, used computer models to simulate how the Amazon would recover from various amounts of deforestation. Their simulations ranged from a complete wipe-out of the entire forest to a situation where just one fifth of the forest would be removed. Optimistic future? Shrinkingfarmland For the first time, more land is being leftto return to nature than is being cleared for agriculture 4r Percentage change in farmland between 2000 and 2015 O Increase or stable □ -lto-4 □ -5 to-9 □ -10 to-14 □ -15 to-19 ■ -20 to-30 SOURCE: FAO(2017), doi.org/n2k LEADER 11 October 2D 17 It looks like an oxymoron, but Earth optimism is worth a try Decades of environmental doom-monger ing have falten on deaf ears. Maybe a new environmental ca mpaign with a message of hope is just what we need Home I Features | Earth IJ'ldl ■ gl 41 I FEATURE 11 October 2017 Is positive thinking the way to save the planet? Move over doom and gloom, there is a new environmental movement in town. Earth optimists say focusing on small successes is the way forward Reasons to be hopefu The extent of protected areas is increasing, particularly in the oceans £ BO E Jsi C M 40 1^ a so ■c at s B CL ^ 10 Terrestrial i Marine O 0 2000 2010 2017 h- 201b, rV the second year in a row, cenewables accounted for more than half of the new power capacity added globally (in gigawatts) Large hydro Othei The number of oil spills has dropped markedly in recent decades OiFspills 100 ^ ao "5 o 60 a; z 40 20 7 700 tonnes >700 tonnes 1970 III ■Hill 19B0 1990 2000 2010 What feelings does such information evoke in you? Top Start the presentation to see live content. For screen share software, share the entire screen. Gethelpatpollev.com/app