3rd
Interim Report
ESPON Project 3.1
Integrated Tools for European Spatial
Development
Tuesday, 30 September 2003
The content of this report does not necessarily reflect
the opinion of the ESPON Monitoring Committee
Annex B
Europe in the World
European Spatial Planning Observatory Network
Espon 3.1 / Workpackage  Europe in the World 
TWELVE MAPS
TOWARD AN ESPON VISION OF "EUROPE IN THE WORLD"
2nd
Version, October 2003
Claude GRASLAND
Christian GRATALOUP
University Paris 7 ­ Denis Diderot
CNRS- UMR 8504 Géographie-cités- UMS RIATE ­GDR LIBERGEO
4
Authors
Claude Grasland and Christian Grataloup are professors of Human Geography at University Denis
Diderot (Paris 7) where they deliver a common teaching course on the Geography of the World. Both
are members of the research unit Géographie-cités from the French National Centre for Scientific
Research (CNRS). Christian Grataloup is a specialist in historical geography, graphic modelisation,
Europe and Globalisation. Claude Grasland is a specialist in spatial analysis, geography of
boundaries, regional economy and demography. He is currently director of the French Espon Contact
Point (UMS RIATE).
Databases
The databases used in this report were elaborated jointly by the authors and by research engineers
from the UMR Espace ­ Montpellier: Patrick Brossier, Patricia Cicille and Guerino Sillre. These
research engineers have previously carried out most databases of the research group RECLUS and
insured for example the achievement of the Geographie Universelle Reclus or the Atlas de France.
Documentation and correction
The documentation used for the preparation of this report on "Europe in the world" was prepared by
Bernard Corminboeuf, research engineer of the UMS RIATE, French ESPON Contact Point. Some
corrections to the map and manuscript were also added by other members of the UMS RIATE like
Gregory Hamez and Liliane Lizzi.
Statistical analysis and mapping tools
Statistical analysis was performed with the softwares SAS and XLSTAT. Maps were elaborated
with Arcview 3.1  or Philcarto  and revised with Adobe Illustrator.
5
INTRODUCTION
The ESPON Programme 2006 focuses mainly on the European territory, but Europe
is not a self contained system. It is important to have a look at external connections
of the EU to get a complete picture of the status quo and possible future
developments of the EU. Most studies developed in the framework of the ESPON
Programme are based on databases limited to the EU and the candidate and
neighbouring countries (EU27+CH+N) and do not take into account the relations
between European territories and the rest of the world. However, many aspects of
the internal differentiation of Europe are related to existing and potential flows
between Europe and the rest of the world. This is especially true for the identification
of gateway cities, polycentrism, spatial and social integration, etc.
According to its terms of reference, the TPG ESPON 3.1 is not in charge of the
realisation of a complete study on "Europe in the world". But it has established a
small work package on this subject because one of its mission is to "fill the gaps" of
the ESPON programme and to propose new directions for further research. In its
comment to the Second Interim Report of ESPON 3.1., the Coordination Unit
indicated that "The basic outcome [of the work package "Europe in the World of
ESPON 3.1] should be the elaboration of a precise and thorough concept of the
continuation of "Europe in the World" in the future ESPON work. With a very limited
allocation of funds1
, it was not possible to explore all directions of the concept of
"Europe in the World" and the author of this preliminary study decided to focus their
research on the three following topics.
1- Toward an ESPON vision of Europe in the World : The realisation of maps
presenting the situation of Europe in the world is related to many technical
questions (projection, framework, aggregation level, ...) which are of crucial
importance from scientific and political points of view. We discuss some of
those problems through the example of the demographic situation of Europe.
2- Europe in a World without boundaries proposes a set of new representation
of the World where the border of states are removed and where the potential
effects of spatial proximity can be more easily evaluated. Of course, borders
still exist but such maps help to understand the growing importance of trans-
national flows of migration, investments, ideas, ...
3- The functional influence of Europe is an attempt to define the territories of
the World which are the most connected to Europe, according to air and trade
flows. It is a crucial question for the ESPON programme which should extend
the statistical coverage of his research to all the territories which are
functionally integrated to Europe, whatever their political situation as candidate
or non-candidate to join the EU.
1
The work package  Europe in the World  has received an allocation of 10 000 Euros in the framework of
ESPON 3.1.
6
7
PART 1
____________
TOWARD AN ESPON VISION OF
EUROPE IN THE WORLD
____________
1.1 WHICH CARTOGRAPHICAL PROJECTION OF THE WORLD ?
1.2 WHICH DIVISIONS OF THE WORLD ?
1.3 WHICH SCALE OF ANALYSIS ?
1.4 WHICH POLITICAL MESSAGE ?
8
1.1 WHICH CARTOGRAPHIC PROJECTION OF THE WORLD?
The ESPON programme has recently decided to harmonize the maps which are
produced in the network and the TPG 3.1 has proposed precise templates for the
realisation of map of the European territory (projection, shape, design, ...). In the
future, it will certainly be necessary to propose equivalent rules for the realisation of
maps of Europe in the world, which implies many choices which are not obvious and
should be discussed at both scientific and political levels.
v A map of the World can get no satisfaction
The right planisphere does not exist. The transformation from sphere to plan
implies necessarily a deformation of areas and/or angles and/or global shapes.
Furthermore, a map of the World can get no satisfaction because the global world is
economically organised as a ring around the earth (see. part C) when a map is a
plane representation with edges defining a single center. The more traditional
projections (projections 1 and 2), directed toward the north and centered on Europe,
express rather well the world`s organisation of the XIXth century when the Old
Continent ruled the other regions of the Earth.
v A polycentric Europe...
But today we live in a polycentric world. And pictures which try to provide
evidences of multiple centralities and competitive influence areas should not induce
biases related to false polarisation introduced by the choice of map projections. It is
the reason why we propose ESPON to choose a polar projection, setting Northern
Hemisphere at the center, simply because it is the place where 90% of the human
beings are living. Such a map can easily be revolved in order to emphasize the
various centralities (projections 6, 7 and 8). Finally, it appears useful to keep the
continuity of the earth surface, avoiding aphylactic maps where continents are
floating in an unspecified mixture of ocean and "nothing" (projections 3, 4 and 5).
v ...in a polycentric world
In the ESPON context, it is important to bring to the fore a map projection which
gives the opportunity of a polycentric, but also universal, representation. Of course,
Southern Hemisphere is badly treated (the disparition of Antartica), which proves that
any planisphere introduces an implicit subjectivity. But, when looking at the maps of
the second part of this report, we can verify that not only rich people but also the
majority of poors are fairly represented with this map projection. Finally, none of the
world economic centers is advantaged, as far as the user of such map can turned it
in any directions. This implicite message is essential for the analysis of a polycentric
Europe in a polycentric world.
In the rest of this annex, we have used the same projection of the World in order to
evaluate its advantages or limits on various cartographic topics (territorial maps,
continuous maps, flows, ...).
9
MAP 1
10
1.2 WHICH DIVISIONS OF THE WORLD?
The European Union as any international organisation should produce geographical
divisions of the world adapted to their statistical, scientifical and political needs.
v The national level
The list of states that should be included in the ESPON database "Europe in the
world" is not a trivial question. For example, it is well known that Ta-Wan is never
present in the statistical databases of the United Nations because China does not
recognise its existence as an independent state. But, on the other hand, the CIA has
introduced Ta-Wan in its "World Factbook"2
which presents the official position of US
Government. An ESPON Atlas of the world would necessarily lead to difficult political
questions because, as in the case of the World Factbook, it could be considered as a
form of official position of the European Union.
v The "regional" level
More complicated but more important is the question of the delineation of "regions"
of the world because it implies necessarily a mixture of ideological, scientific and
political constraints. The 17 ESPON regions presented in Map. 2 are a provisional
typology which will be further improved by the results of the analysis of air and trade
flows. The table 2 presents the main characteristics of those initial ESPON Regions
of the World.
ESPON REGIONS SUP POP URB RUR GDP1 GDP2 CO2
Western Europe 3.0 6.4 10.9 2.5 26.7 21.1 13.9
Central Europe 1.0 2.2 2.8 1.6 1.3 2.4 3.4
Eastern Europe 13.5 3.7 5.6 2.1 1.1 3.5 8.4
South and East Mediterannea 5.1 3.9 5.1 2.8 1.8 2.8 2.9
Western Africa 4.6 3.9 3.4 4.4 0.2 0.6 0.5
Central Africa 4.0 1.4 1.0 1.7 0.1 0.1 0.0
Eastern Africa 4.4 3.2 1.6 4.6 0.2 0.5 0.1
Southern Africa 5.2 2.4 2.0 2.8 0.6 1.2 1.7
Central Asia 3.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.1 0.4 1.2
Persian Gulf 3.8 2.2 3.1 1.5 1.1 1.5 3.9
Southern Asia 3.8 22.5 13.6 30.3 1.9 6.8 5.3
Northern America 16.1 6.8 11.1 3.0 36.0 25.8 27.8
Central America 4.4 3.1 4.4 1.9 1.3 1.9 2.0
Southern America 9.5 3.8 6.7 1.3 3.2 4.5 2.2
Eastern Asia 8.8 24.3 20.0 28.2 21.2 21.4 21.6
South-Eastern Asia 3.3 8.6 6.9 10.0 1.8 4.1 3.4
Oceania 6.4 0.5 0.8 0.3 1.5 1.4 1.6
World 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
Criteria : SUP= area (km2) ; POP= Population (inhabitants) ; URB = Urban Population; RUR= Rural population ;
GDP1=Gross Domestic Product ($); GDP2= Gross Domestic Product (pps); CO2=Carbon Dioxyde emissions (t.)
Source : ESPON 3.1 - "Europe in the World" / World Development Indicator 2002
2
http://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/geos/tw.html
11
MAP. 2
Original data
Source : World Development Indicators, 2002
(c) World Bank
Harmonisation of database & ESPON Region
Claude Grasland, UMR Géographie-cités
Map contour and projection
SAS-MAP revised and completed by
CNRS-UMR Espace / Montpellier
Cartography
Draft map realised with Philcarto V.3.x
http://perso.club-internet/philgeo
12
1.3 WHICH GEOGRAPHICAL FRAMEWORK?
The fact to limit the research of the ESPON programme to EU27 or EU29 can
produce illusions and mistakes in the analysis of main trends shaping the European
territory. In many cases, the perception of inequalities, potentialities, polarisations ...
will be fully transformed according to the geographical shape and the basic territorial
units used by the observers. As an example, we propose to consider how the map of
the percentage of young (0-14 years) in 2000 is modified when the geographical
framework is modified (Map. 3).
v A Global View
With a global view, the reader of the map will perceive a major opposition between
Europe and Africa. Indeed, at the scale of the world divided in 17 ESPON regions,
the lowest proportion of young are observed in Western, Central or Eastern Europe
(less than 20%) and the highest in Africa and Middle East (more than 40%). The
South and East Mediterranean countries appear in an intermediate situation with a
proportion of young which is equal to the mean of the world (30-35 % of young).
v A Pan European View
With a restricted view on the pan-European area and a more precise territorial unit
(the state level), the reader of the map will perceive a major opposition between
North and South of the Mediterranean Sea. At this scale of analysis, we can indeed
observe a discontinuity in the statistical distribution of the percentage of young with
very few states characterised by the intermediate situation of 20-30% of young.
v An Espon View
With a restriction of the analysis to the ESPON space at NUTS 2 level, the reader
of the map will perceive a completely different spatial opposition, with relatively low
proportion of young in Central and Southern Europe and relatively high proportion in
Northern, Western and Eastern Europe. From a global view, this internal
differenciation of Europe would appear very limited, but for European policies it is
important to deal with it because they produce an important differential of growth.
The problem is not to decide what is the best point of view between the previous
ones but to be aware that they are absolutely complementary and that, whatever the
target of the analysis, it is important to combine several scales of analysis. In
concrete terms, the ESPON view is certainly the most interesting in a short term
perspective. But the pan-European view and the global view should be taken into
account when European policy makers try to elaborate strategies in a long term
perspective.
13
MAP 3
N.B. The partition of the statistical distribution in the three maps is different because the spatial framework is
not the same. In each case, the spatial units in orange an yellow are located above the mean value of the
reference area and the regions in blue are located under this mean value.
14
1.4 WHICH POLITICAL MESSAGE?
The maps are very powerful tools of communication and they can transmit implicit
or explicit political message. As an example, consider the typology of age structure
presented on Map 4 and examine which political messages could be delivered by
such a map if it was included in the Third Cohesion Report or the new version of the
European Spatial Development Perspective.
v An "old" Europe ...
This map indicates that the demographic structure of the world at the beginning of the
21th
century is characterised by a very high level of heterogeneity. According to the
timetable of their demographic transition, some states are characterised by
over/under representations of young, adult, or old as compared to the world structure
(Map. 4). The figures clearly indicate that Western, Central or Eastern Europe are all
characterised by a deficit of young population (less than 20%) and an excedent of old
(more than 12%) as compared to the rest of the world and especially to the Triade's
challengers : Northern America or Eastern Asia.
v ... with "young" neighbours.
But the map explains also that the regions of "Northern America" and "Eastern
Asia" include economic peripheries with high demographic potential like Mexico for
NAFTA and China for Japan. It is obvious that the situation of Europe would appear
very different if the future scenarios include peripheral areas which are strongly
related to Europe like S.E. Mediterranean countries, Africa, Central Asia or even
Southern Asia.
ESPON REGIONS Age structure (%) Population
0-14 15-64 65+ (millions)
Western Europe 17% 67% 16% 389
Eastern Europe 19% 69% 12% 226
Central Europe 19% 68% 13% 130
S.E. Mediterranean 34% 62% 5% 235
Western Africa 45% 52% 3% 237
Central Africa 47% 50% 3% 82
Eastern Africa 45% 53% 3% 194
Southern Africa 42% 55% 3% 147
Central Asia 34% 61% 5% 56
Persian Gulf 40% 57% 3% 134
Southern Asia 35% 60% 5% 1355
Northern America 24% 65% 11% 410
Central America 34% 61% 5% 187
Southern America 29% 65% 6% 231
Eastern Asia 24% 68% 8% 1469
South-Eastern Asia 32% 63% 5% 518
Oceania 25% 65% 10% 30
World 30% 63% 7% 6029
Source : ESPON 3.1 - "Europe in the World" / World Development Indicator 2002
15
MAP. 4
Original data
Source : World Development Indicators, 2002
(c) World Bank
Harmonisation of database
Claude Grasland, UMR Géographie-cités
Map contour and projection
SAS-MAP revised and completed by
CNRS-UMR Espace / Montpellier
Cartography
Draft map realised with Philcarto V.3.x
http://perso.club-internet/philgeo
16
17
PART 2
____________
EUROPE
IN A WORLD WITHOUT BOUNDARIES
____________
2.1. "GEOGRAPHIC" POTENTIAL
2.2 DEMOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL
2.3 ECONOMIC POTENTIAL
2.4 POLLUTION POTENTIAL
18
2.1 "GEOGRAPHIC" POTENTIAL
The researchers of the Hypercarte Project have proposed new cartographic
representations of the world which were first published in a CD-ROM on World
population3
and have received the 1st
Price of Cartography at the International
Festival of Géography from Saint-Dié-des-Vosges in 2000. Those maps which are
based on a new smoothing method propose a vision of a world "without boundaries".
With a sample of those results, we propose to examine for which criteria
(geographic, demographic, economic, ...) is it possible to observe something that
could be called "Europe" when we do not take into account the political division of
the world between states ?
v Five continents ...
Europe is commonly defined as one of the five continents. And a continent is usually
defined as a kind of very large island. If we try to propose a neutral representation of
the distribution of emerged lands we can note the existence of 4 to 5 large sets, of
different sizes, apparently clearly distinct. But in fact, their degree of spatial
separation is variable. If the two Americas are clearly distinct, as Australia and
Antartica (which is not mapped according to the chosen map projection), Africa and
Asia remain very closely joined together. A massive "Old World" is opposed to an
archipelago of new worlds.
v ...without Europe !
But the most significant fact is that this "geographical" approach of the world does not
reveal any part of the world which could be assumed to be a European continent.
Europe is not a natural fact but a social fact, a historical construction. It is funny to
observe that the non-continent of Europe has been the place of the definition of
continents for the entire world. According to this observation we don't use continents
as an a priori operational tool for the regionalisation of the world. The ESPON
programme should be free to use any other partition of the world which would be
more relevant for its own objectives. If Europeans want to measure their current
influence in the World, they are obliged to free from their own inheritance, from the
Weltanschauung produced by their ancestors.
3
Pison G., Chesnais J.C., Grasland C., al. (1999), 6 milliards d'hommes et moi, CD-ROM, Syrinx, Paris.
19
MAP 5
Original data
Source : World Population Datasheet, 2000
(c) World Bank
Computation of potential
ID-IMAG / The Hypercarte Project
Map contour and projection
SAS-MAP revised and completed by
C. Grasland - UMR Géographie-cités
Cartography
Map realised with Surfer
NORTHERN
AMERICA
SOUTHERN
AMERICA
ASIA
AFRICA
Oceania
???
20
2.2 DEMOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL
v The 3rd
demographic centre of the World.
The most significant part of the world population is concentrated in three peaks of
population located in "Eurasia". The peaks of population located in the rest of the
world appear clearly of secondary importance (NE. of Northern America, Atlantic
coast of Southern America, Western Africa, Eastern Africa, SE. of Australia). The
major node of population is composed of two major neighbouring peaks (Eastern
Asia and Southern Asia). Europe is clearly separated from the twinning demographic
giants of Asia by a clear discontinuity which follows more or less the Ural.
v With wider extension than usual definition of Europe.
Accordingly, it appears that Europe which was a "geographic" fiction is a
demographic reality. But the demographic concentration of population which has its
centre in Europe is not limited to the classical boundaries of EU15 or EU27. Europe
is "potentially" the 3rd
concentration of population in the World as far as it develops
relations and exchange with neighbouring areas. Western Europe only represents
6.4% of the world population which is less than the NAFTA. With the addition of
Central Europe, we obtain an amount of 8.6% of the world population which is just
equivalent to South-Eastern Asia. It is only with the addition of wider peripheries that
Europe can reach a potential of population equivalent to the one of China or India.
World population by ESPON region in 2000
W. Eur
C. Eur
E. Eur
C. As
S.E Med
W. Afr.
C. Afr.
E. Afr.
S. Afr.
P. Gulf
S. As.
E. Asi
SE Asi.
Oce
N. Ame.
C. Ame.
S. Ame.
Source : ESPON 3.1 - "Europe in the World" / World Development Indicator 2002
21
MAP 6
Original data
UNEP-GRID repartition of population in 1990
Corrections by C. Grasland (UMR Géographie-cités)
Computation of potential
ID-IMAG / The Hypercarte Project
Map contour and projection
SAS-MAP revised and completed by
C. Grasland - UMR Géographie-cités
Cartography
Map realised with Surfer
Northern
America
WESTERN
EUROPE
EASTERN
ASIA
South-Eastern
America Western
Africa
SOUTHERN
ASIA
Eastern
Africa
Oceania
22
2.3 ECONOMIC POTENTIAL
v World economy and the Triad
As concerns wealth, measured here in terms of GNP in US dollars in 1995 (see
map 7), the peaks of concentration are distributed in a simpler fashion, roughly a
large northern triad (United States and Canada, Europe and Near-East, East Asia),
and a small Southern triad (Brazil-Argentina, South Africa, Australia-New Zealand).
Minor concentrations of wealth can be observed in Nigeria and in isolated peaks in
the Pacific (Hawaii, French Polynesia).
v Scale parameter and polycentrism
However, this new point of view also raises a host of theoretical and
methodological potential variations which will be discussed in our final report. Indeed,
a change in the choice of radius of smoothing (250, 500, 2,000 km) would modify the
location and relative importance of the main hubs of population and wealth4
. It would
also give more information on the internal spatial structure of each peak of
concentration: monocentric for Western Europe, polycentric for Northern America,
axial for Eastern Asia.
World GDP ($) by ESPON region in 2000
SEAs.
S. Ame.
C. Afr.
E. Afr.
Western
Europe
Northern
America
Eastern
Asia
S. Afr.
W. Afr.
E. Eur
S.E Med
C. Eur
P. Gulf
C. Asia
S. As. Oce
C. Ame.
Source : ESPON 3.1 - "Europe in the World" / World Development Indicator 2002
4
Gilles PISON (dir.), Jean-Claude CHESNAIS, Claude GRASLAND, al. ­ 6 milliards d'hommes ... et moi,
CD-Rom, Éditions Syrinx, 1999.
23
MAP 7
Original data
Source : World Population Datasheet, 2000
(c) World Bank
Computation of potential
ID-IMAG / The Hypercarte Project
Map contour and projection
SAS-MAP revised and completed by
C. Grasland - UMR Géographie-cités
Cartography
Map realised with Surfer
NORTHERN
AMERICA
WESTERN
EUROPE
EASTERN
ASIA
South-Eastern
America
Southern
Africa
South-Western
Pacific
24
2.4 POLLUTION (CO2) POTENTIAL
v World sustainability and the Triad
In usual publications, the distribution of CO2
emissions is presented in the
framework of territorial units which can be states or regions of the world. This
territorial presentation of reality induces some implicit way of thinking which can
influence the decision-maker. In particular, the use of territorial delimitation will favour
the idea of a market of pollution with identified actors having rights to produce some
quotas according to their size (economic, demographic) and being able to buy the
rights of pollution of the other actors. The continuous approach of the reality
presented in Map 8 is more relevant because it reveals the direct correlation between
world economic organisation and world distribution of pollution.
v The ecological responsibility of Europe.
The centres of the Triad have a tendency to export their pollution to neighbouring
countries. It is especially true in the case of Europe where the model of industrial
development of the XIXth century was adopted by socialist countries, but also in the
case of Japan which exports its model toward China or Korea. A reduction of
pollution in Western Europe will produce no real ecological effects if the CO2
emissions are simply transferred toward Eastern Europe or Africa. A map without
boundaries demonstrates that Europe is an economic and ecological reality and that
both phenomena are clearly interrelated.
World Pollution (CO2 emissions) by ESPON region in 2000
C. Ame.
Oce
S. As.
C. Asia
Persian
Gulf
Central Europe
S.EMed
Eastern
Europe
W. Afr.
S. Afr.
Eastern
Asia
Northern
America
Western
Europe
E. Afr.
C. Afr.
S. Ame.
SEAs.
Source : ESPON 3.1 - "Europe in the World" / World Development Indicator 2002
25
MAP 8
Original data
Source : Worldbank - WRI 1998-1999
& Carbon Dioxyde Information Center
Computation of potential
ID-IMAG / The Hypercarte Project
Map contour and projection
SAS-MAP revised and completed by
C. Grasland - UMR Géographie-cités
Cartography
Map realised with Surfer
NORTHERN
AMERICA
WESTERN
EUROPE
EASTERN
ASIA
South-Eastern
America
Southern
Africa
South-Western
Pacific
26
27
PART 3
____________
THE FUNCTIONAL INFLUENCE AREA OF EUROPE
____________
3.1. MAIN INTER-REGIONAL FLOWS / AIR 2000
3.2 MAIN INTER-REGIONAL FLOWS / TRADE 1996-2000
3.3 EUROPE INFLUENCE AREA / AIR FLOWS 2000
3.4 EUROPE INFLUENCE AREA / TRADE FLOWS 1996-2000
28
3.1. MAIN INTER-REGIONAL FLOWS / AIR 2000
v Western Europe represents 50% of international air flows ...
According to the database from the ITA, Western Europe is the origin or the destination of
50% of the international air flows of passengers in 2000. This important share is partly due to
the importance of air traffic between Western European countries (70 % of intra-regional
flows!) and the comparison with Northern America is biased because flows inside the United
States are not taken into account. Western Europe presents the highest level of regional
integration with 71% of international flows which are internal to the region5
v ...and 30% of interregional air flows.
If we consider only interregional flows, the comparison becomes possible and one can
demonstrate that Western Europe is the major centre of the world air traffic with 30% of
interregional passenger flows in 2000. It is equivalent to the sum of the interregional air traffic
of the other members of the Triad: Northern America (19.8%) and Eastern Asia (11.6%). The
main air traffic flows of passengers from Western Europe are directed to Northern America
(62 millions), South and East Mediterranea (38 millions), and Central Europe (23 millions).
Other important flows are directed to Eastern Asia (12 millions), South-Eastern Asia (9
millions) and Central America (9 millions) and at a less degree to Persian Gulf (5.5 millions),
Eastern Europe (5 millions), Southern Asia (4 millions) and Southern America (4 millions
each).
International Intra-regional Inter-regionalESPON REGIONS
Millions
Pass.
% Millions
Pass.
% Millions
Pass.
%
Regional
integration
Western Europe 628.2 50.5% 443.9 70.1% 184.3 30.2% 0.71
Central Europe 26.9 2.2% 1.4 0.2% 25.5 4.2% 0.05
Eastern Europe 6.3 0.5% 0.0 0.0% 6.3 1.0% 0.00
South and East Mediterannea 47.7 3.8% 1.7 0.3% 46.0 7.5% 0.04
Western Africa 4.7 0.4% 1.1 0.2% 3.6 0.6% 0.23
Central Africa 0.9 0.1% 0.2 0.0% 0.8 0.1% 0.19
Eastern Africa 3.9 0.3% 0.2 0.0% 3.7 0.6% 0.05
Southern Africa 4.6 0.4% 0.0 0.0% 4.6 0.8% 0.00
Central Asia 0.8 0.1% 0.0 0.0% 0.8 0.1% 0.04
Persian Gulf 22.9 1.8% 5.9 0.9% 17.0 2.8% 0.26
Southern Asia 15.7 1.3% 2.3 0.4% 13.4 2.2% 0.15
Northern America 171.0 13.8% 50.4 8.0% 120.6 19.8% 0.29
Central America 36.9 3.0% 3.9 0.6% 33.0 5.4% 0.11
Southern America 16.7 1.3% 6.4 1.0% 10.3 1.7% 0.38
Eastern Asia 148.2 11.9% 77.6 12.2% 70.7 11.6% 0.52
South-Eastern Asia 79.4 6.4% 29.8 4.7% 49.6 8.1% 0.38
Oceania 28.1 2.3% 8.5 1.3% 19.6 3.2% 0.30
World 1243.3 100.0% 633.4 100.0% 609.9 100.0% 0.51
Original data : CD-ROM IT00.XLS (c) ITA - Institut du Transport Aerien
Harmonisation of database : Brossier P., Cicille P., Sillre G. CNRS - UMR Espace / Montpellier
5
But this index is biased because it is related to internal political divisions which are higher in Europe. It is the
reason why we will eliminate intra-regional traffic (flows between states of the same ESPON region) in further
analyses.
29
MAP 9
Original data :
CD-ROM IT00.XLS
(c) ITA - Institut du Transport Aerien
Harmonisation of database :
Brossier P., Cicille P., Sillre G.
CNRS - UMR Espace / Montpellier
Map contour and projection
SAS-MAP revised and completed by
CNRS-UMR Espace / Montpellier
Cartography
Draft map realised with Philcarto V.3.x
http://perso.club-internet/philgeo
30
3.2 MAIN INTER-REGIONAL FLOWS / TRADE 1996-2000
v Western Europe represents 37 % of international trade flows ...
In order to obtain a structural evaluation of flows, independent from conjonctural yearly
fluctuations, the GDR Libergeo (UMR Espace-Montpellier & UMR Géographie-cités) has
established a matrix of the mean value of trade flows between states during the time period
1996-2000 without distinction of direction (mean of import and export6
). According to this
robust estimator, we can demonstrate that Western Europe has been the origin or the
destination of more than 37% of trade flows during the last years7
.
v ...and 24 % of interregional flows.
If we consider only interregional flows, Western Europe remains the main centre of world
trade (24%) but its total of interregional flows appears slightly equivalent to the one of the
other members of the Triad (22% for Northern America and 21% for Eastern Asia). The main
bilateral trade flows of Western Europe are logically related to Northern America (210
billions of $) and Eastern Asia (155) but very important flows can also be observed with the
neighbouring regions of Central Europe (91) and S.E. Mediterranea (62) and with S.E. Asia
(53). Important commercial relations take place also with Southern America (26), Eastern
Europe (26) and Persian Gulf (23).
International Intra-regional Inter-regionalESPON REGIONS
Billions
$
% Billions
$
% Billions
$
%
Regional
integration
Western Europe 1990.8 37.1% 1268.1 54.7% 722.6 23.7% 0.64
Central Europe 145.4 2.7% 20.5 0.9% 124.9 4.1% 0.14
Eastern Europe 82.0 1.5% 18.8 0.8% 63.2 2.1% 0.23
South and East Mediterannea 110.4 2.1% 6.0 0.3% 104.3 3.4% 0.05
Western Africa 23.5 0.4% 1.8 0.1% 21.7 0.7% 0.08
Central Africa 6.1 0.1% 0.1 0.0% 6.1 0.2% 0.02
Eastern Africa 8.2 0.2% 0.6 0.0% 7.6 0.3% 0.07
Southern Africa 35.2 0.7% 2.9 0.1% 32.3 1.1% 0.08
Central Asia 10.1 0.2% 0.7 0.0% 9.4 0.3% 0.07
Persian Gulf 98.5 1.8% 3.9 0.2% 94.6 3.1% 0.04
Southern Asia 50.2 0.9% 1.6 0.1% 48.6 1.6% 0.03
Northern America 1203.1 22.4% 532.8 23.0% 670.2 22.0% 0.44
Central America 87.9 1.6% 15.5 0.7% 72.4 2.4% 0.18
Southern America 103.1 1.9% 23.6 1.0% 79.5 2.6% 0.23
Eastern Asia 979.3 18.3% 339.2 14.6% 640.1 21.0% 0.35
South-Eastern Asia 348.6 6.5% 74.6 3.2% 274.0 9.0% 0.21
Oceania 80.8 1.5% 8.3 0.4% 72.5 2.4% 0.10
World 5363.2 100.0% 2319.2 100.0% 3044.0 100.0% 0.43
Original data : CD-ROM PC-TAS (c) Trade Analysis System ITC-UNSD
Harmonisation of database : Brossier P., Cicille P., Sillre G. CNRS - UMR Espace / Montpellier
6
Distinction between import and export will be examined in the final report of  Europe in the World .
7
The level of regional economic integration of Western Europe (64% of international trade flows are internal) is
much higher than for the NAFTA (44%) or the Eastern Asia (35%). But this index is not reliable as it has been
explain previously.
31
MAP 10
Original data
CD-ROM PC-TAS
(c) Trade Analysis System ITC-UNSD
Harmonisation of database
Brossier P., Cicille P., Sillre G.
CNRS - UMR Espace / Montpellier
Map contour and projection
SAS-MAP revised and completed by
CNRS-UMR Espace / Montpellier
Cartography
Draft map realised with Philcarto V.3.x
http://perso.club-internet/philgeo
32
3.3 EUROPE INFLUENCE AREA / AIR FLOWS 2000
According to a division of the international flows between Western Europe (30%),
Northern America (20%), Eastern Asia (12%) and "rest of the world" (38%), it is
possible to propose a preliminary represention of the comparative influence of
Europe and the other members of the Triad.
v Europe major influence from Capetown to Vladivostok
At the state level, the European influence area appears as a relative continuous field from
Capetown to Vladivostock. Indeed, most African countries and most states from Central Asia,
Middle East or former Soviet Union have more passenger flows with Europe than with other
members of the Triad or with the rest of the World. In comparison, the influence area of
Northern America appears very small and does not even cover all the Americas because of
the regional integration of Mercosur. And the influence of Eastern Asia appears relatively
limited to the states of Western Pacific coast.
v Is Western Europe the "World Wide Hub"?
Looking at this map from air transportation, it appears that in terms of accessibility,
Europe is the World Wide Hub. This position can be explained by the great diversity of
relations established in the past by the European states (France in Western Africa, UK in
Eastern Africa and India, Spain in Southern America, Portugal in Brazil, Italia in Libya and
Ethiopia ...). Taking benefit from this inheritance, Europe has to examine the best way to
organize its connexions with the rest of the world, which is an external problem (world
influence) and an internal problem (choice of gateway cities).
World influence of Western Europe / Interregional air traffic 2000
ESPON REGIONS Western
Europe
Northern
America
Eastern
Asia
Rest of the
World
Total
Western Europe - 33% 6% 60% 100%
Central Europe 91% 2% 0% 7% 100%
South and East Mediterannea 83% 4% 1% 12% 100%
Western Africa 83% 6% 0% 11% 100%
Southern Africa 79% 5% 3% 12% 100%
Eastern Europe 79% 5% 5% 11% 100%
Eastern Africa 78% 1% 1% 21% 100%
Central Africa 72% 0% 0% 28% 100%
Central Asia 63% 2% 12% 23% 100%
Northern America 51% 0% 19% 30% 100%
Southern America 39% 49% 2% 10% 100%
Persian Gulf 32% 1% 2% 65% 100%
Southern Asia 32% 2% 4% 62% 100%
Central America 26% 71% 0% 3% 100%
South-Eastern Asia 18% 3% 53% 26% 100%
Eastern Asia 17% 32% 0% 51% 100%
Oceania 10% 14% 40% 36% 100%
World 30% 20% 12% 38% 100%
Original data : CD-ROM IT00.XLS (c) ITA - Institut du Transport Aerien
Harmonisation of database : Brossier P., Cicille P., Sillre G. CNRS - UMR Espace / Montpellier
33
MAP 11
Map contour and projection
SAS-MAP revised and completed by
CNRS-UMR Espace / Montpellier
Cartography
Draft map realised with Philcarto V.3.x
http://perso.club-internet/philgeo
Original data :
CD-ROM IT00.XLS
(c) ITA - Institut du Transport Aerien
Harmonisation of database :
Brossier P., Cicille P., Sillre G.
CNRS - UMR Espace / Montpellier
34
3.4 EUROPE INFLUENCE AREA / TRADE FLOWS 1996-2000
Many recent publications of American researcher in economy and political sciences have
underlined the growing power of the "discrete" Europe which is slowly becoming a
"superpower" in many fields, if not in military terms.
v "Sweet commerce" and the World power of Europe
Many European policy-makers would probably share the opinion of William Robertson who
said in 1769 that "sweet commerce tends to wear off those prejudices which maintain
distinctions and animosity between nations. It softens and polishes the manners of men." But
they certainly do not ignore that trade is also an instrument of power which induces
dissymmetrical links between partners when their sizes are different. According to the
polarisation of the world by the Triad, the map 12 shows clearly that Europe has a
dominating influence on most African and Middle-East countries. And it is important to
underline that the areas where the trade is not dominated by a member of the Triad
(Southern India, Southern America, and Eastern Europe) have more relations with Western
Europe than with Eastern Asia or Northern America.
v European responsibility concerning the neighbouring countries
The dissymmetry of trade relations between Europe and its neighbours is well-known. For
example Western Europe represents more than 75% of the commercial trade of Tunisia
when Tunisia represents less than 1% of the trade of Western Union. The European policy
makers should keep in mind that this situation was the situation of their states in their relation
with America before the construction of the EU. Accordingly, they should consider this
dissymmetry as a responsibility rather than an advantage.
World influence of Western Europe / Interregional bilateral trade 1996-2000
ESPON REGIONS Western
Europe
Northern
America
Eastern
Asia
Rest of the
World
Total
Western Europe - 29% 21% 49% 100%
Central Europe 73% 5% 5% 16% 100%
South and East Mediterannea 59% 16% 8% 17% 100%
Central Africa 47% 27% 13% 13% 100%
Western Africa 45% 22% 12% 21% 100%
Eastern Africa 44% 8% 13% 35% 100%
Southern Africa 43% 18% 20% 20% 100%
Eastern Europe 41% 9% 12% 38% 100%
Southern America 33% 31% 17% 19% 100%
Northern America 31% - 36% 32% 100%
Southern Asia 30% 21% 18% 32% 100%
Eastern Asia 24% 38% - 38% 100%
Persian Gulf 24% 14% 38% 25% 100%
Central Asia 22% 5% 11% 62% 100%
Oceania 21% 19% 38% 22% 100%
Central America 20% 59% 9% 12% 100%
South-Eastern Asia 19% 26% 42% 13% 100%
World 24% 22% 21% 33% 100%
Original data : CD-ROM PC-TAS (c) Trade Analysis System ITC-UNSD
Harmonisation of database : Brossier P., Cicille P., Sillre G. CNRS - UMR Espace / Montpellier
35
MAP 12
Map contour and projection
SAS-MAP revised and completed by
CNRS-UMR Espace / Montpellier
Cartography
Draft map realised with Philcarto V.3.x
http://perso.club-internet/philgeo
Original data
CD-ROM PC-TAS
(c) Trade Analysis System ITC-UNSD
Harmonisation of database
Brossier P., Cicille P., Sillre G.
CNRS - UMR Espace / Montpellier
36
37
CONCLUSION
"The World transformed himself into the form of a magnificent white bull and appeared in the sea shore where
Europa was playing. The great bull walked gently over to where Europa stood and knelt at her feet. The appearance
and movements of the bull were so gentle that Europa spread flowers about his neck and dared to climb upon his
back. But suddenly, the bull rushed over the sea abducting Europa. Only then the bull revealed its true identity and
took Europa to the Mediterranean island of Crete. There, the World cast off the shape of the white bull, and back into
his human form, made Europa his lover beneath a simple cypress tree. Europa became the first queen of Crete and
had many sons all around the World8
."
The aim of this very preliminary study on "Europe in the World" is certainly not to
provide definitive results on such a complex subject. All studies and maps presented
in this annex should be considered as exploratory results which try to indicate new
interesting directions for further research to be developed in the future by the
members of the ESPON Program. According to the political objectives of ESPON we
have yet identified some priorities for further research
1) Identification of the peripheries of Europe through a combination of
criteria of homogeneity, flows and accessibility. As a very preliminary
example of such a research, we have tried to combine in the same factorial
analysis the basic structural characteristic of the 17 ESPON regions
(demography, economic development, urbanisation ...) with their degree of
connexion to Europe according to air and trade flows. As a result, we obtain a
graphic plot which present an interesting representation of the positions of the
regions of the world according to their level of development (Factor 1) and the
intensity of their relationships with Europe (Factor 2).
2) Comparison of the European territory with the other global integration
zones of the world. For most political concepts developed in the ESPON
programme (polycentrism, territorial cohesion, gateway cities, ...), it should be
interesting to compare the European Territory with comparable territories of
NAFTA or Eastern Asia. The partnership between OECD and ESPON could
be the ideal platform for such exchange of experiments.
8
Text adapted from http://www.windows.ucar.edu/tour/link=/mythology/planets/Jupiter/Europa.html
38
39
PRELIMINARY SYNTHESIS OF "EUROPE IN THE WORLD" RESULTS
(a) Correlation of variables with factors
VARIABLES (in 2000) Factor 1 (46.8%) Factor 2 (30.4%)
Coord Contrib. Coord Contrib.
(A) Interaction with Europe
Mean aerian distance to Western Europe 0.177 0.672 -0.834 22.923
Air flows toward W. Europe (% of flows*) -0.312 2.082 0.913 27.446
Air flows toward W. Europe (per inhabitant) 0.616 8.115 0.500 8.224
Trade flows toward W. Europe (% of flows*) -0.341 2.485 0.812 21.698
Trade flows toward W. Europe (per $ of GDP) -0.495 5.233 0.669 14.738
(B) Structural situation
% of 0-14 in population -0.874 16.309 -0.118 0.460
% of 65 and more in Population 0.838 15.019 0.196 1.260
% of urban population 0.824 14.526 0.218 1.572
GDP/inh in pps 0.958 19.598 0.134 0.592
CO2 emission per inhabitant 0.864 15.962 0.182 1.089
* the percentage of flows is calculated after exclusion of internal flows of the world regions.
(b) Position of world regions
Central Africa
Eastern Africa Southern Africa
Western Africa
Northern America
Central America
Central Asia
Eastern Asia
Southern Asia
South-Eastern Asia
Central Europe
Eastern Europe
South and East
Mediterannea
Southern America
Oceania
Persian Gulf
Countries in maximum interaction with Europe
Countries in minimum interaction with Europe
Moredeveloppedcountries
Lessdeveloppedcountries
40
41
Annex 1: The world database on air flows
Les données brutes utilisées pour construire la base de données géoréférencées proviennent de l'Institut du Transport Aérien (ITA),
association regroupant au niveau international les différents acteurs du monde aéronautique (directions de l'aviation civile, compagnies
aériennes, aéroports, etc.).
Fiabilité des données
Le fichier des flux de passagers par liaison aérienne d'aéroport  aéroport, fourni par l'ITA, comprenant souvent plusieurs sources pour une
mme liaison (33 048 lignes en tout), une seule a été conservée. Les sources nationales ont été privilégiées. Les données concernant la
répartition du nombre de passagers entre vols réguliers et non réguliers n'étant pas exploitables pour l'ensemble du réseau mondial (trop de
données manquantes), n'ont pas été conservées dans la base finale.Le niveau d'exhaustivité des données est différent d'un pays  l'autre: la
France est certainement le pays le mieux renseigné (données pour 112 aéroports sur les 136 ayant une piste goudronnée de plus de
1 523 mtres).Globalement tous les pays européens sont relativement bien renseignés.
Il manque certainement beaucoup de liaisons nationales, aux États-Unis, voire en Australie (l'aéroport de Canberra n'est pas présent, par
exemple) et dans une grande partie de l'Asie.
Base de données géoréférencées
La base de données construite par l'UMR ESPACE (Patricia Cicille, CNRS UMR ESPACE et Magali Amiel) comprend 16 525 liaisons de
ville  ville : 48 villes ayant au moins deux aéroports, les flux de passagers ont été cumulés par ville.Pour chaque liaison décrite, on dispose
du nombre de passagers (arrivées et départs cumulés) en 2000 et de la longueur de la liaison (distance en km).La correspondance avec un
fond de carte Villes Monde a été réalisée (Patrick Brossier, UPV UMR ESPACE)  partir d'un fichier de coordonnées (longitude, latitude) de
8 341 aéroports (source : http://www.airportcitycodes.com).La correspondance avec un fond de carte Pays Monde a également été réalisée
(Patricia Cicille et Patrick Brossier)  partir d'un fichier de codes de pays comprenant  la fois les codes OAG, les codes IATA (International
air transport association), les codes Nations unies, les codes ISOA2 et A3. Ce fichier comprend également des codes permettant de réaliser
des cartes par grandes régions du monde (source : UNEP/DEWA/GRID-Geneva, United Nations Environnement Program/Division of Early
Warning and Assessment/Global Resource Information Database) et par regroupement économique (type Union européenne, ALENA, etc.).
Annex 2 : Drawing maps without borders
The making of the CD-Rom "6 billion people... and me" [3] provided an opportunity to apply several new mapping methods to
the study of the distribution of the world's population and wealth. This project was made possible thanks to the data base of the
United Nations Environment Program which shows the distribution of the world's population, in 1990, according to a 1-degree
latitude/longitude gid, and ignoring state borders (UNEP-GRID). On the basis of this grid, we estimated the distribution of world
wealth by allocating each country's GNP in proportion to its population located within each cell of the grid. However, this method
does not account for regional variations of the per capita GNP, and as a result the location of wealth remains to a certain extent
approximate.
Two approaches were chosen to carry out the "borderless" analysis of the distribution of population and wealth. The "potential"-
based approach consists in evaluating the quantity of population (or wealth) located in the vicinity of a specific point in the world,
on the basis of certain hypotheses suggesting a weakening of the link with growing
distance9
. This method makes it possible to determine the main points of concentration of population or wealth. The
"accessibility" approach makes it possible to evaluate the average distance between a given point on theEarth's surface and the
entire world population or wealth. Each point of the globe can be measured in terms of demographic or economic accessibility,
and one can determine the most accessible point of the world, in demographic or economic terms.
References :
Claude GRASLAND ­ "Essai de représentation cartographique des émissions de gaz carbonique dans le monde vers 1995 : problmes
cartographiques et enjeux politiques", Réalités industrielles/Annales des Mines,February 2001, 79-87.
Gilles PISON (dir.), Jean-Claude CHESNAIS, Claude GRASLAND, al. ­ 6 milliards d'hommes ... et moi, Cédérom, Éditions Syrinx, 1999.
Claude GRASLAND, "Accessibilité sociale et accessibilité économique mondiales au début des années 1990", L'Information géographique,
1999, 63, 3.
9
The calculation of potential is weighted by a Gaussian function of a value of 0.5 for a distance of 1,000 km. In
concrete terms, this means that a population mass of 5 million people will contribute 100% (5 million) to the
potential of the place where it is located, only 50% (2.5 million) to the potential of a place located 1,000 kmaway
and less than 5% (250,000) to the potential of a place 2,000 km away.
42
EUROPE IN THE WORLD
By Claude Grasland & Christian Grataloup
SUMMARY
INTRODUCTION p.5
1. TOWARD AN ESPON VISION OF EUROPE IN THE WORLD p.7
1.1 WHICH CARTOGRAPHICAL PROJECTION OF THE WORLD?
1.2 WHICH DIVISIONS OF THE WORLD?
1.3 WHICH SCALE OF ANALYSIS?
1.4 WHICH POLITICAL MESSAGE?
2. EUROPE IN A WORLD WITHOUT BOUNDARIES p.17
2.1. GEOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL
2.2 DEMOGRAPHIC POTENTIAL
2.3 ECONOMIC POTENTIAL
2.4 POLLUTION POTENTIAL
3. THE FUNCTIONAL INFLUENCE AREA OF EUROPE p.27
3.1. MAIN INTER-REGIONAL FLOWS / AIR 2000
3.2 MAIN INTER-REGIONAL FLOWS / TRADE 1996-2000
3.3 EUROPE INFLUENCE AREA / AIR FLOWS 2000
3.4 EUROPE INFLUENCE AREA / TRADE FLOWS 1996-2000
CONCLUSION p.37
For all comments on this report,
please contact the French ESPON Contact Point
UMS-RIATE
Tel./Fax. + 33 1 44 27 99 83
infos@orate.prd.fr
http://www.orate.prd.fr