J. Jarkovský, L. Dušek, J. Rá ek Institute of Biostatistics and Analyses, Masaryk University, Czech Republic ! " #$% ! "# $ %&' ("# & ' ( & ) * ( & + ) # ) + ) * , ( - . & /#0'%*+ & 1 & ) ' /2%) 3 ) ( & # 3 ) % 4-+"%/5.. & 4 6 ) 0 0 ) 708+ ) 984 ) %:'; & # ( 6 !" & * ( % 4 % ) <===>?@@@ " ( . " - . + !#+ . ) ?@@< % ) ( + . . " , - - . ) ?@@A>?@@B " $. 1 ( . 4 , 6 - !#+ - - 4 ' ' - ) ( - 6 ( . & * ( ( 4 *6 / ( #$ %& $ % '$" & % # Expert knowledge (species properties etc.) Species abundances Abiotic data (chemical, geography, hydrology etc.) Dynamic abiotic parameters Natural heterogeneity (static parameters) Pollution data Measured data Indices Community "quality" (biotic indices, ecological scores etc.) Community structure (diversity indices) Measured data A) Calibration data set B) Environmental gradient Contaminated sites Reference (clean) sites X1 X2 X3 ...... Xp X1 X2 X3 ...... Xp X1 X2 X3 ...... Xp New problem Searching for similarities X1 X2 X3 ...... Xp New problem Searching for similarities Gradient calibration Increasing contamination Increasing disturbance RISK ASSESSMENT SCENARIORISK ASSESSMENT SCENARIO ! % River system of the Czech Republic ! % Abiotic river types ! % Reference and standard data ( & 4 6 ( ) AC? )