Chapter VI LIMITING DISTRIBUTIONS OF TEST STATISTICS UNDER THE ALTERNATIVES 1. Contiguity 1.1. Asymptotic methods. Contiguity. The asymptotic approach consists in, regarding a given testing problem as a member of a sequence {Hv, Kv}, v ^ 1, of similar testing problems. In this sequence the v-th testing problem concerns Nv observations Xlt ...,Xfiv wilh Nv -* co as v -> co. As a rule, Hv depends on v through A',, only, i.e. H, = H(N^), whereas Kr depends on some parameters dvl, 0 í f í Nv, in addition. For example, we might assume that Hv = H0, H0 being applied to N = A'tf observations, and that JC, consists of a single density qt, «»° UMxi - dvt) • Of course, there are infinitely many such sequences, and we try to choose one which resembles the given testing problem as much as possible. First of all it would be desirable to keep the envelope power function ß(z, Hv, Kv) independent of v. Since this is usually difficult or even impossible, we shall be satisfied with the existence of a limit ß(x): (0 Kmß(a,HvtKv) = ß(x)t Oáaál. As in the previous chapter, we shall also consider indexed sets of testing problems {Hd,Kd,deD}, where the convergence will be equivalent to the convergence to a fixed limit for all sequences selected from the set and satisfying certain requirements. As a rule, Kä will be simple, consisting of a density qd. The limiting relation (l) entails that ß(v,Hv,KT) will approximately equal ß(a) for v ä v0. The usefulness of the asymptotic results will depend on whether the problems "#» against K" with v ^ v0, may occur in practice or not. The value of v0 is usually guessed on the basis of numerical calculations for selected v's and the assumption that the convergence is more or less monotone. In this book we shall not investigate the somewhat degenerate cases in which (2) /9(«) =1 for aU 0. 202 VI. 1.2 Wc shall even exclude the cases in which (3) ß(x)-**0 for a-»0. However, it may be shown, that in problems dealt with in the sequel, (3) implies (2). The requirement thai (3) should not take place finds its theoretical expression in the notion of contiguity, which is due to LeCam (1960). The notion of contiguity is basic for the asymptotic methods of the theory of hypothesis testing. Consider a sequence {pv, q,} of simple hypotheses p, and simple alternatives qv defined on measure spaces (Xv, sft, /jv), v ž 1, respectively. Definition. If for any sequence of events {A,}, A„ € stv, (4) IPJA,) - 0] * IQJIA.) -> 0] holds, wc say that the densities qv are contiguous to the densities pw, where dPv = = pvdft„dQ, = qvdttv, v ž 1. If Hv is composite, we say that qy is contiguous to Hv if for each v the convex hull J7, of //, contains a density pv such that (4) holds. If both Ht and K, are composite, we say that Kt is contiguous to Ht if (4) holds for some pv e Bv and q, e Kt. Contiguity implies that any sequence of random variables converging to zero in Pv-probability converges to zero in £)T-probability, v -+ co. 1.2. LeCam's first lemma. According to the Ncyman-Pearson lemma, for any event Ar there exists a critical function >PV such that (1) #, - 0 , if qy< fc.p,, where 0 á { £ 1, and that = 1, if qt> krpv, P,«) = kdP,, QiA^Ú UrdQv. Thus contiguity will follow if we show that (2) f*, dPv -> ol => I" j*v dö, -+ ol for critical functions of the type (l). VI. I. 2 203 Introduce the likelihood ratio L, = 4,/p,, or more precisely, (3) M*,) = 4,(x,)M*v). if ftfc)>0, = 1, if pr(jcj = 9,(xJ = 0 , = co , if p,(x,) = 0 < 4,(*v) , where x¥ denotes the typical point of the space X¥. » ž 1. Let F, be the distribution function of Lv under P¥: (4) F^x)-P^Sx), where L¥ = Z^), v^l. Lemma. Assume that F, given by (4) converges weakly [at continuity points) to a distribution function F such that (5) rW(x)=K Jo Then the densities qt are contiguous to the densities pv, v 2; 1- Proof. Take a sequence of critical functions 0. šy|V,dP¥ + í dߥ = = y|#,dJ\ + 1 - ľ dô.--yU9dP9+l- í I*dPr- =>'f*vdpv+i - r.xdpv. Now for any e > 0 we can find a continuity point y of F such that, in view of (5), 1 - x dF < le . :ui VI. J. 2 Since F„-> F entails we shall have for some v0 (8) 1- íXdF-íXdF x df¥ < \i, v £ v0 . Furthermore, (6) ensures the existence of v-j such that M 0, dPy < j£ , v £ v,. Finally, from (7) through (9) il follows that *> dÖ. < £ for v £ max (v0, yj . J- Thus J\rv dö, -+ 0, which concludes the proof. Remark. Note that contiguity does not entail that the Q, are absolutely continuous with respect to the P,. The singular part of Qv. however, must tend to zero, Ô,(p, = 0) - 0 as a consequence of Pv(pv = 0) = 0 -* 0. The asymptotic distribution of the likelihoods Lv will regularly be log-normal. We shall say that a random variable Vis log-normal (/*, >s asymptotically log-normal ( — \ — x with (^-probability I. Thus we may regard log Lv as an extended random variable allowed to attain — co with positive probability under P„. However, asymptotic normality of logL,, is defined in the same way as for an ordinary random variable, i.e. as convergence of PT(Iog L, < x) to a normal distribution function in every real point x. Thus asymptotic normality entails ^„(IogL, = — co) -* 0. In what follows we restrict ourselves to cases in which the summands in (3) are uniformly asymptotically negligible, i.e. (4) lim max P, »-as l E =0 Under this condition necessary and sufficient conditions of asymptotic normality arc well-known. These conditions arc considerably simpler if the summands have Unite variance. However, this fails sometimes to be satisfied in (3) within the class of problems considered below. For this reason we instead consider the statistic .=] which always consists of summands with finite variances, as may be easily seen, and has additional advantages. The following lemma, due to LeCam, shows that asymptotic normality of log L, may be established by proving asymptotic normality of If,. Lemma. Assume thai (4) holds and lhal the statistics l^,vž 1, are asymptotically normal ( — $<7Z, o1) under Pv. Then the statistics log L, satisfy (6) limP,(|logLv- »; + ä s) = 0, e>0. and are asymptotically normal ( — \g2, a2) under Pt. 206 ________________________________VI. 1. 3 Proof. If a function h(x) has a second derivative /»"(x), then (7) h(x) = h(xo) + (x-xo)h'(x0) + + i(x - xoy ľ 2({ - X) h«[x0 + X(x - x0)] dX, as may be easily seen by integration by parts. Thus, putting (8) Tvi = 2[gvl(Xl)!frl(Xiy]*-2, we obtain ', r "ibx/ x iogfe„//„) = 2iog(i + ir„) = ** *TfH = t« - m ľ'[2(i - m + i^wH d.. Consequently, (9) log Lv = W, - - £ 7* f [2(1 - X)i(l + UTvif] dX . This holds even for logLv = -co. Introduce Tf., = rw, if |r„|$af = 0 , otherwise . As is well known (Louvg (1955), p. 316), asymptotic normality ( — £ 0 (io) Ži\(Irw[>á)->o, (n) EetS-,-iff2, (12) SvwTS-*^. i-l Now (10), holding for eoéry ô > 0, entails (13) Z ii f [2(1 - i)/(i + iÁr¥í)2] dA ~ £ (r£) n* VI. i. 3 207 where ~ denotes thai the ratio of both sides tends to 1 in /^-probability. Thus, in order to prove (6), it remains to show that 1-1 in Pv-probability. For this purpose it suffices to prove (15) ŽE(7Í()'-„! 1-1 and (16) lim lim sup £ var (7j)2 = 0, 6-0 »-» (-1 since then (14) will follow by the Chebyshev inequality. Further, in view of (12), (15) is equivalent to (17) Í"(E72)2-0. We first prove (17). If Ô > 2, then 7j $ Tti, since Tvl £ -2, in view of (8). Consequently, (18) E7J š ET,, = 2E{gvi(Xi)//w(*i)}i - 2 £ ú 2{E[ff,^)//vi(X1)]}i - 2 = M = 2 jí ff„(x)d.xj -2 SO. Ui;.i>oi J Thus, for ô > 2, S(ElS)aS min EISIeiS, and (17) follows from (11) and from the fact that min E7Í-*0, which is an easy consequence of (4). Now it remains to note that the validity of (17) for any Ô > 2 entails its validity for any Ô > 0, because of (12) and of E e(ü)! š E E(rt')3, ô, < ô2 . 1*1 1=1 As for (16), first note that E «r [(Iff] S E E(7?,)4 S í* J E(7?r)'. i-1 (=1 (=1 208 VI. I. 4 Thus, on account of (15), (19) limsup£var(Tj)2á ffl2) if it converges in distribution to a normal vector (Zlt Z2) such thai EZ,- = /((, varZ, = fff, / ■ 1,2, and cov (Zt,Z2) = ax2. (For convergence in distribution in k ž 2 dimensions see the definitions of Section V.2.1.) Lemma. Assume that the pair (S,, logLv) is under i% asymptotically jointly normal (/i,, //2, a\, a\, ff12) with jt2 = ~\o\- Then S, is under Q, asymptotically normal (/i, + ffI2, a]). Proof. Obviously, (1) Q,(Sy g x) - f dßv - J {5„S*} | L,dP,+ Ô¥(pv = 0,Sv^.v) = J IS.S*) - r ľ e" áh\(u, v) + QXp, = 0, S, á x) , J —to J — to where Fv{u, v) denotes the distribution function of (Sv,logL,). Now /i2 = — \o\ implies contiguity (Corollary 1.2), and hence (2) Qv(p, = 0,S,Sx)-»0, VI. 1.4 209 since Pv(pv = 0, 5¥ á x) = 0 -»0. Furthermore, for any c > 0 J"* ("ť ŕX fC (3) e'dF/«,»)-* j e"d(u, ľ) denotes the two-dimensional normal distribution function with parameters (u,, p2l a\, o\, ffu). Actually, Fv -* if we show that for every e there exist c0 and v0 such that (5) ľ 'V dFv + T fV dFw < s, v ä v0 . J — CC J — M J—«Jco In other words we must show that the truncated parts of the integral are uniformly small if c0 's sufficiently large. However, (5) is an easy consequence of contiguity. Actually, if (5) were not true for some c > 0, we would have a sequence of pairs (cj, Vj) such that (6) lim Cj = co , lim vj = co , j-*n J—a> and ôv/log LVJ < -Cj or log Lt] > cj) = ľ pVdFv+r pdFv,ä J — co J - co J — co J c j r ľvM* í J —to *) — ") J — to J< On the other hand, since log L, is asymptotically normal under Pv, Pv,(Iog LtJ < -cj or log LVJ > Cj) -» 0 , because of (6). This contradicts contiguity, and thereby (4) is proved. 14 — Hijelc-Sidik: Theorv of Rank TeM* VI. 1. 4 209 since Pv(pv = 0, S, g x) = 0 -» 0. Furthermore, for any c > 0 (3) T ľC"dFT()->r fe-d^r), J—coJ—c J—aiJ—e where 0(«, ľ) denotes the two-dimensional normal distribution function with parameters (/i,, fi2, a\, a\, <71?). Actually, Fv -* O according to our assumption, and the function h(u, v) = e", - co < u < x, - c ž t> 5 c = 0, otherwise, is uniformly bounded and continuous except on the set {(u, v):v= — c or v = c or u=x}, which obviously has 0-probability 0. Thus we may apply Dl of Section V.2.1. Now (1), (2) and (3) will imply (4) ß/S,Sx)->r f" e'ďb(u,v) J - 0, we would have a sequence of pairs {cj, Vj) such that (6) lim Cj = co , lim v, = co , J-<© J-« and Qtfi°S Lvj< -Cj or log LfJ > Cj) - r* c~et p« f« C*dF„ + e'dF„š J -«J - cj) -♦ 0, because of (6). This contradicts contiguity, and thereby (4) is proved. 14 — Hájcle-Sidik: Theory of Rank Teiu 210 VI. 2.1 Now, by easy computations, we derive lhal w r ľ e-d*=r r h*,. &)-' kí - e!)]-». J — n J — co J ~ m «I — to .exp^-Ri-e2)]-1^-^)2^2- - 2tf(u - nt)(í + i^Xa,^)-' + (» + tá)2 *í2]} du du = = ar,(2*ri f exp[-i(«-^-ffia)2«rr3]dii( where g = ff^^i^)'1- Combining (4) and (7), we easily conclude the proof. Remark. The above Lemma holds even if a\ = 0, i.e. if logL, converges to 0 in probability. 2. Simple linear rank statistics 2.1. Location alternatives for // . Wc shall consider alternatives (0 «i-n/o(*i-4). where f0 is a known density with I{fo) < °o, and ä = (dlf.... ds) is an arbitrary vector. Recall that Ihe vector d runs through the set of all real vectors of all finite dimensions, and lhal the asymplotic statements concern sequences { i=i \m + n + 1 ./. with (S) and (9) still applicable. If , i=i \wi + n + 1 ./)-=2> I N (-i \m + n -f 1 ./ ■ However, since Jôo>(u,/)di/ = 0, the correction is asymptotically negligible, as may be shown. 2.4. Rank statistics for //._ against regression. Now we shall investigate the limiting distribution under qä of the statistics (0 5e = Z(c,-č)flff(Ä(). f=i Theorem. Let qd be given by (2.1.1) and assume that (2.1.4) and (2.1.5) hold. Then, under qd the statistics Se given by (1), where the scores satisfy (2.3.1), are for N £ (c; - č)2/ max (c,- - č)2 -* co asymptotically normal (uäc, ff2) with i- : (2) and (3) I 5 ig A' N pi toe = [ E (cf - Č) («*l - 3)] («>/o) <*" '=» Jo ^ = [E(^-a)2]fw«)-^]2d«. 1-1 Jo 77ie assertions remain true if we replace (2.1.1), (2.1.5) and q>(u,f0) by (2.2.1), (2.2.3) and 2 = 1 i=i EOv- *0(rf,~ a)-*"*„. 1=1 VI. 2. 4 217 Note that under (4) £(c, - č)2/max (c, - č)2 -» co is equivalent to (6) max (c, - a)2 -* 0 . Furthermore, if S* is given by (7) Sj-ffo-íJaSílO, where the scores arc related to

arid covariance a12 = bl2 JÔ a(«,/o) du - b1, i-i Jo cov (Te, ij - [J] (c, - č) (rf, - a)] ľ 9>(u) 9>(«,/0) du 1-1 Jo ->b12\ (u,f0)du. 218 VI. 2. 4 Thus ihe limiting parameiers have the required values. In view of D3 of Section V.2.I. it remains to show, for all real Xt and X2, that XiTe + X2Td i$ either asymptotically normal (0, o2cd) with c2ci = var(A,Tc + X2Td), or var(^Tť + X2Té) -> 0. Write xtTe + jar, - z M<> - *) -p(^i) + 4(* - 3) 0. Now put Zu =Xt{cl-č)[$, = 0, if |Z,|áä, and define Z(i(<5) and Z3ť(í>) similarly. In view of (ll) the Lindeberg condition for XiTe + X2Td may be expressed as follows: (12) IEpiMP-0, ô>0. However, we obviously have so that (12) follow« from .v ('3) and (14) £E[Z2((Ó)]2^0, 5>0. i-i Finally, observe that (13) and (14) are equivalent to the Lindeberg condition for XXTC and X*Td, respectively, in view of (4) and (2.1.5). Moreover, from (6) and (2.1.4) it follows ihat this condition is satisfied in both cases (see the proof of Theorem V.1.2). This concludes the proof for qd given by (2.1-1). If qd werfi given by (2.2.1), we would proceed quite similarly. Q.E.D. 220 VI. 2. 5 The density qá will be associated with the density (?) p=n/o(xi). which obviously belongs to Hv Our aim is to establish the limiting distribution of (■») s;=£«.v(Rr)signX,. under qA. Theorem. Let qNJ be given by (1), where fQ is symmetric about zero, /(/0) < ^ and (N, A) satisfy (2). Further assume that the f unctions aN(i + [«A']), 0 < « < 1. converge in quadratic mean to a square integrable function ip*(u). Then the statistics (4) are under qSÁ asymptotically normal (/ix, , and + ^-wľdu = 0-