Working Paper
Sustainable Biosphere
(Critical Overview of the Basic Concepts
of Sustainability)
Yuri M. Svirezhev
Anastasia Svirejeva-Hopkins
WP-96-95
August 1996
'01IASAInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis A-2361 Laxenburg Austria
ILAI
U.... Telephone: +43 2236 807 Telefax: +43 2236 71313 E-Mail: info@iiasa.ac.at
Sustainable Biosphere
(Critical Overview of the Basic Concepts
of Sustainability)
YuriM. Svirezhev
Anastasia Svirejeva-Hopkins
WP-96-95
August 1996
Working Papers are interim reports on work of the International Institute for Applied
Systems Analysis and have received only limited review. Views or opinions expressed
herein do not necessarily represent those of the Institute, its National Member
Organizations, or other organizations supporting the work.
UllASAInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis A-2361 Laxenburg Austria
ILAI
w.B.~ Telephone: +43 2236 807 Telefax: +43 2236 71313 E-Mail: infoQiiasa.ac.at
Contents
1. Limits to Growth
2. Sustainable Development
3. "How Many People Can Live On the Earth?"
4. Technocrat's Illusions
5. Food Security: Sustaining the Potential
6. The Increase in Food Production: Ecological Approach
7. One More Technocratic Illusion. The Limits to Agriculture
Intensification
8. Comparative Analysis for Energetics of the Biosphere
and Technosphere
9. Industry, Energy and Environment. The Myth of Sustainable
Development
References
Appendix 1. Sustainability
Appendix 2. Thermodynamic Criterion for Environmental Degradation:
Anthropogenic Impact Assessment
Appendix 3. Vernadsky's Concept of the Biosphere
About the Authors
Yuri M. Svirezhev is from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam,
Germany.
Anastasia Svirejeva-Hopkins is from the Geography Department, University of Toronto,
Toronto, Canada.
Preface
This paper was prepared by the authors during their visits to IIASA in 1994-1996.
SustainableBiosphere
(Critical Overview of the Basic Concepts of Sustainability)
Yuri M. Svirezhev
Anastasia Svirejeva-Hopkins
1. LIMITS TO GROWTH
All populations, including Horrlo Sapiens, when developed in conditions of limited
resources, sooner or later reaches a maximum size, determined by the so called
carrying capacity of the environment. When approaching that limit, the mechanisms
responsible for slowing growth start to work and exponential (or even faster than
exponential - like Homo sapience), growth slows and later stops. The population has
occupies its new ecological niche. In natural populations, these mechanisms usually
work by competition for food resources, hunger, diseases and epizootics. All this was
described by T. Malthus in relation to Human populations. Since the concrete
consequences of these regulation mechanisms are anti-humanitarian from the moral
and spirit~~alpoint of view (hunger, wars and epidemics), then the criticism of
Malthus is understandable (although how would you impose the nature out moral
criteria, or understanding of good and bad).
Of course, there are other possibilities for the regulation of population processes.
The first and the most obvious one - is the birth control, quite humanitarian, which is
~~nofficiallyapproved by Catholics. Unfortunately, in a lot of countries (in India, for
example) the different programs for regulation and limitation of birth do not produce
great results. I think the reasons are not only the religious and national traditions (for
example the marriage age, the amount of children, the sex relation) but attributers are
also to a gradual increase in the economic well being and improving quality if life of
succeeding generations on certain demographic impacts.
The second method to avoid the negative consequences of approaching the
pop~~lationlimit is to change the value of maximum size of population, in other
words, to increase the carrying capacity of the environment. It could be done with the
help of eilher more efficient use of resources, or by the expansion of resource in
pliysical space. Until now, the human population was developing in just this way. It
is clear, however, that this way of development has its limits: there are
thermodynamic limits of effective use of resources, and the finiteness of our Planet
determines the finiteness of our resources and the limits of expansion. These
concepts were a basis for investigation by the Club of Rome and its successors.
(Forrester, 1971, Meadows, etc., 1972)
There is, also the possibility of expansion into outer space, but that is not the near
future and we are not going to be considering it.
2. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
'The works of the Club of Rome concluded that: in order to avoid ecological,
demographic and resource (the result of natural resource exhaustion) disasters in the
near future, it is necessary to stop demographic and economic growth i.e. the areas of
cconomy, connected with resource usage. In other words, to rescue human
pop~~lation,the concept of zero growth has been suggested.
Naturally, this concept has caused intense criticism in both developed (with the
liberal market economies, for example, USA) and developing countries of the Third
World.
If in developed countries the main argument had to deal with the unlimited trust in
opport~~nitiesof a liberal economy ("give business a freedom and it will solve all
these problems" - N. Rockfeller), then developing countries were accusing the first
ones in national egoism: "the developed countries have already solved their
problenls, but we are just facing them and our economy has to grow very fast in order
to do it." The sit~~ationhas grown tense and Brundtland Commission was formed as a
compromise, which released the tension. The Commission suggested the remarkable
concept of "Sustainable Development"; which looks far more attractive than the
severe neo-Malthusian concept of "zero-growth". The question is : can sustainable
developnlent for the whole Earth exist in reality? Later, we are going to try to answer
this question.
But, before that in order to better ~~nderstandthe whole concept, let us quote several
sentences from the book "Our Common Future. From one Earth to one World", 1987.
Sustainable Development
Hunlanity has the ability to make development sustainable - to ensure that it nleets
the needs of the present without conlpromising the ability of fut~~regenerations to
meet their own needs. The concept of sustainable development does imply limits not
absolute limits but limitations imposed by the present state of technology and
social organization on environmental resources and by the ability of the biosphere to
absorb the effects of human activities. But technology and social organization can be
both managed and improved to make way for a new era of economic growth. The
Con~n~issionbelieves that widespread poverty is no longer inevitable. Poverty is not
only an evil in itself, but sustainable development requires meeting the basic needs of
all and extending to all the opportunity to fulfill their aspirations for a better life. A
world in which poverty is endemic will always be prone to ecological and other
catastrophes. Meeting essential needs requires not only a new era of economic
growth for nations in which the majority are poor, but an assurance that those poor
get their share of the resources required to sustain that growth..."
"Sustainable global development req~~iresthat those who are more affluent adopt
life-styles within the planet's ecological means - in their use of energy, for example.
Further, rapidly growing populations can increase the pressure on resources and slow
any rise in living standards; thus sustainable development can only be pursued if
population size and growth are in harmony with the changing productive potential of
the ecosystem.
Yet in the end, sustainable development is not a fixed state of harmony, but rather a
process of change in which the exploitation resources, the direction of investments,
the orientation of technological development, and institi~tionalchange are made
consistent with fi~tureas well as present needs. We do not pretend that the process is
easy or straightforward. Painfill choices have to be made. Thus, in the final analysis,
suslainable development must rest on political will." (More detailed discussion about
sustainability - see Appendix I).
Let 11s look at the last paragraph - from which it follows that a sustainable
developn~entstrategy is quite realistic and there is no physical, biological or other
natural and scientific linlitations, and its realization depends only on corresponding
political decisions. We shall try to show that the situation is fi~rmore complicated,
that what exists is the myth of sustainable development but not sustainable
development itself.
Let us, at first answer a very important question:
3. "HOW MANY PEOPLE CAN LIVE ON THE EARTH?"
There are quite a few estimates of the "carrying capacity" of ecological (trophic)
niche for Homo Snpiens species. Most estimates are tied to the ability of Biosphere to
provide food for growing populations. For 30 % of the planet population, hunger
related to agricultural production is the main factor.
The maximum estimation assumes that all net primary production of the biosphere
is used as food (Odum, E., 1983). The estimation is quite rough and idealized, but it
gives an idea about growth limits.
If we consider, that net production composes a half of total gross production, then
the productivity of the biosphere is 5 * 10" kcallyear. One human individual spends
about 1:"0%cal per year in the form of food, and then, if we assume that all this
organic production is utilized by humans then the upper limit for the human
popc~lationis 500 billion. The 500 billion are located on 1.4 * 10" m' of land, or 280
n12of surface area per person.
The minimum estimation is calculated by which could be called by E. Odum
(1983), assuming 6.7 * 10" kcal of food is collected all over the world. (in other
words, the organics, which traditionally consumed by humans). Badly regulated
distribution, large losses, low quality of crops, reduce this amount significantly. If we
presuppose, that by organizing everything perfectly, we could eliminate
these losses, then the modern agriculture could feed no more then 6.7 billion people.
The intermediate estimation is based on assumption, that agriculture is based on
cereals, with significant consumption of artificial energy. Its productivity constitutes
an average 5 10'kcal /(m2:': year). Then one person will need (in the coildition of
vegetarian diet) 200 m' of arable land. Considering, that no more then 25 % of the
land territory could be used for agriculture, we estimate the population at about 170
billion.
Unfortunately, the intermediate estimation is not the mean one. There are other
limitations, which reduce this number significantly. The maximal possible
population, calculated with the help of the Moscow global model of biosphere
processes (Krapivin, Svirezhev, Tarko, 1982) was about 16 - 17 billion people
(presupposing that all major contenlporary tendencies for econonlic development are
going to be maintained during next 100 years and no revolutionary changes in food
processing will be introduced).
4. TECHNOCRAT'S ILLUSIONS
Pi-incipally, it is possible to imagine algae as a food source. This will cause the
artificial energy consunlption to increase, because these technologies require large
amounts of mineral resources and energy.
Theoretically, the nlaximum possible production of algae culture is on average
2,5 :;:lo4kcallm' per year, so only 40 m' is needed for sc~pportingone person.
Howcver, at the present time using these technologies, in order to produce 1 kcal of
organics 600 kcal artificial energy should be spent. The input is equal to 6 " 10"cal
(or 400 barrels of oil) in a year per individual. In order to feed an existing population
(5 billion people) using this technology, 2 * 1012barrels of oil must be extracted,
which is 20 times higher than all the oil extracted today.
There are other sources of energy, of course. Physicists promise us an "ocean" of
energy as a result of high-temperature synthesis. At first glance, it could be also used
for food production, but other factors are at work here. An increase in energy
consumption of 25-30 times could break the global climatic equilibrium. Because
energy transforms into heat and an increase in atmospheric temperature will cause a
deterioration of the current metastable climate state into one of two possible stable
states. It is either going to be either going to be so warm that the polar ice begins to
melt and most of civilization's centers will be flooded, or winter will take over all of
the planet.
With these considerations in mind, solutions for overpopulation will not be found
with extensive increases in energy production from new technologies, i.e. the
technocratic solution will fail.
5. FOOD SECURITY: SUSTAINING THE POTENTIAL
Let 11ssee how the Brundtland Commission suggests solving the problem of food
production within the framework of "sustainable development".
"Growth in world cereal production has steadily outstripped world population
growth. Yet, each year there are more people in the world who do not get enough
food. Global agriculture has the potential to grow enough food for all, but food is
often not available where it is needed.
Production in industrialized countries has usually been highly subsidized and
protected from international competition. These subsidies have encouraged the
overuse of soil and chemicals, the pollution of both water resources and foods with
these chemicals, and the degradation of the countryside. Much of this effort has
produced si~rplusesand their associated financial burdens. And some of this surplus
has been sent at concessional rates to the developing world, where it has undermined
the farming policies of recipient nations. There is, however, growing awareness in
some countries of the environmental and economic consequences of such paths, and
the emphasis of agricultural policies is to encourage conservation.
Many developing countries, on the other hand, have suffered the opposite problem:
farmers are not si~fficientlysupported. In some, imported technology allied to price
incentives and government services has produced a major breakthrough in food
production. But elsewhere, the food-growing small farmers have been neglected.
Coping with often inadequate technology and few economic incentives, many are
pushed onto marginal land: too dry, too steep, lacking in nutrients. Forests are cleared
and productive dry lands rendered barren.
Most developing nations need more effective incentive systems to encourage
production, especially of food crops. In short, the 'terms of trade' need to be turned in
favor of small farmer. Most industrialized nations, on the other hand, must alter
present systems in order to cut surpluses, to reduce unfair competition with nations
that may have real comparative advantages, and to promote ecologically sound
fru-mingpractices.
Food security requires attention to questions of distribution, since hunger often
arises from lack of pi~rchasingpower rather than lack of available food. It can be
fi~rtheredby land reforms, and by policies to protect vulnerable subsistence farmers,
pastoralists, and the landless - groups which by the year 2000 will include 220 million
households. Their greater prosperity will depend on integrated rural development that
increases work opportunities both inside and outside agriculture."
We see, that suggested strategy is a strategy of improvement of already existing
technology of food production. Of course, this strategy increases the carrying capacity
of the trophic niche for humans. But it does not cancel those upper limits for the size
of the trophic ecological niche, which we have discussed earlier. (See#3).
Now, let us consider one more way of increase of carrying capacity of the trophic
niche.
6. THE INCREASE IN FOOD PRODUCTION: ECOLOGICAL APPROACH
Usually, ecosystems consist of two chains: grazing and detritus, where a significant
part of energy (sometimes more then half) goes to the detritus chain. Humans use the
grazing chain for their consumption. Timofeev-Resovski (1968) has proved for the
first time that humans can globally use the detritus chain. As an example he pointed
out the possibility of using a "sapropel" (half decomposed and transformed organics
on the bottom of the water bodies), as a food source. One more quality of the detritus
chain makes it useful for this purpose: buffering capacity, the capacity allowing to
accumulate and store organics for a long time. For example, there is enough sapropel
only in the water reservoirs of European part of Russia for providing food for all of its
population for 100 years. But sapropel accumulates again and again. The only thing
needed, is a technology for its processing, but this task has been partially completed
in Japan.
And what is lnore, the removal of parts of stored matter in detritus chain accelerates
matter circulation in the whole ecosystem, which in turn, increases its productivity.
But this increases the efficiency coefficient for the system. It is obvious, the food
production problem should be solved with ecological means and not technocratic
solutions.
7. ONE MORE TECHNOCRATIC ILLUSION. THE LIMITS TO
AGRICULTURE INTENSIFICATION
It is known that intensification of agriculture (the increase of crop production)
correlates with increase of artificial energy flow in the ecosystem. Indeed, the increase
of fertilizers input, usage of complex infrastructure, pesticides, herbicides etc., i.e. all
that is called a "modern agriculture technology", results in greater crop production.
This is a typical pattern of development agriculture in industrial countries.
However, there are li~l~its,determined by physical laws. In other words, we pay the
price for increasing of the productivity of agriculture, which is a degradation of the
environment (including soil degradation).
It is obvioi~sfrom the analysis of maize production in Hungary in 80-es (Svirezhev
et al., 1990).
Let the gross agroecosystem production be P ,the net production be (1- r) P where
I '
I- is the I-esl>irlrtiotzcoejficielzt, so that rP are the respiratiolz losses. For maize crop in
the temperate zone r E 0.4. The kth part of the net production is being extracted
from the system with the yield, so that the crop yield
y=k(l-r)P, (1)
Let o be the annual entropy production (overproduction) by one area unit of
agroecosystem and T be the mean temperature of vegetation period in this site (in
K).
Then the entropy balance of this system is:
where W is the artificial energy irtflow and Po is the gross production of
successiorlally closed ecosystem. In the Hungarian case it is a middle - European
steppe.
There is an empirical relation between P, (and y) and W (let us remember, even if
the ecological-energetic analysis by D.Pimente1 et al. was very popular in 1970s -
1980s). Results of this popularity is that we know the coefficients of energy efficiency
( 11 = y / W ) for different agroecosystems of many countries and various regions.
The average yield of maize was 4.9 (/ha (in dry matter), which makes 0.735 * 10 11
Jlha. For maize production in Hungary q = 2.7 and k = 0.5. Since the steppe
community is a s~~ccessionallyclose ecosystem for a corn field after cultivation is
stopped (grassland of the temperate zone), then the gross production
Substituting these values into (2) ,we get:
On the other hand, artificial energy input to the system is
Therefore, coinpensatioil for environinental degradation requires the 300% incrernerzt
iiz energy iizput with all the additional energy spent only for soil reclanzatio~z,
pollr~tio~lcorztrol, etc. with no increase in the crop production.
From the condition a = 0 we have Wc,i,= 16 GJIha. (1GJ = 10"~).Let us compare
this value with the value of "the limit energy load", which has been got by
M.Simmons by means of very concrete and detailed calculation. This value is equal to
15 GJIha. It is a very curious coincidence, is not it?
Calculating y,,,, (from (2) at a = 0), we get y,,,,. = 2.9 tha. This is the estimation
of maximal crop production (in dry matter) for "sustainable" or "ecological"
agriculture.
Let us suppose, that the primary degradation process, which accumulates all the
degradation processes, is soil erosion. If we have the thermodynamic model of soil
erosion, we can estimate the annual erosion losses resulting from the intensive
agriculture. In accordance with (Svirezhev, 1990), the erosion loss of It of soil from
I 0
one hectare corresponds to the production of entropy as:Then Us*T = 0.31*10 J/ha.
Consequently, high crop production will cost us 26 tons of soil loss annually. By the
USA standards, no more than lot of soil may be lost from a hectare. Obviously, 26
tons per hectare is the extreme estimate: the actual losses are less, since there are other
degradation processes, like environmental pollution, soil acidification (this factor is
very important for Hungary), etc.
Within the framework of the thermodynamic approach we can calculate the entropy
of these processes as well. For example, the entropy contribution to the acidification
of soil can be calculated in terms of appropriate chemical potentials. However, (and
this is the principal constraint of thermodynamic approach), we can not predict the
way of realisation the degradation of the environment: the strong mechanical
degradation of soil and weak chemical pollution, the high acidification of soil, the
strong chemical contamination by pesticides and fertilisers, or some intermediate .
ways. Every way is equiprobable. For the solution of this problem some additional
information is needed.
On the other hand, this approach gives as the possibility to estimate the "entropy
fee", which the mankind pays for high crop yield, for intensification of agriculture.
Overproduction of entropy can be compensated by processes of environmental
degradation , in particularly, by soil degradation. It is known that the loss about 40%
of soil tends to fast fall of crop yield to 5-7 times (G. Dobrovolsky The Soil
Geography, Moscow Univ. Press, Moscow, 1974). This is a typical agricultural
disaster. But it is a disaster from anthropocentric point of view, from point of view of
physics laws, a fall of crop yield by the reason of soil degradation is a natural reaction
of physical system, tending to decrease an internal production of entropy and to
minimise its overproduction. It is the consequences of the Prigogine theorem. The
corresponding estimations for Hungary shows that if the intensive production of
maize woilld be continued, it would be finished by agricultural disaster through 30-40
years.
8. COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS FOR ENERGETICS OF THE BIOSPHERE
AND TECHNOSPHERE
In order to do the correct analysis of sustainabiliry concept we must analyse the
main dynamic factor of evolution for biosphere and techosphere (anthroposphere), i.e.
to compare their energy flows patterns.
The Biosphere, as an open thermodynamic system, exists with a permanent flow of
solar energy. Earth receives 1.2'k1022kcal of solar energy per year (which maintains
the work of climatic machine). Vegetation is the main concentrator and transformator
of solar energy in the Biosphere, but uses only 2.5*10'" kcallyear (Krapivin,
Svisezhev, Tarko, 1982). This energy is spent on the evaporation through the leaves,
providing water and nutrient transport, and creating new biomass.
In
The filnction of the "green cover" results in 1.3:k10 kcallyear of the new biomass.
Approximately 60% of it is immediately used for respiration and the rest 40 % is the
17
( r r l r z r i ( ~ lglobal production, which is equal to 5.4*10 kcallyear.
The energetic characteristics of the Biosphere have not significantly changed since
9
the beginning of photosynthesis (0.5 - 1*10 years ago). The filnctioning of
autotsophic component of the Biosphere provides the energetic basis for evolution of
animals ("biological evolution"). Since, the efficiency coefficient of this autotrophic
component is e q ~ ~ a lto:
Then, the Biosphere stability is maintained by the continuous dissipation of energy.
In other words, the Biosphere is a typical dissipative system. This energy flow
In IX
provides the steady state for 1.84*10 grams of living biomass (or 8.3*10 kcal), and
Ih
the animal biomass is only 0.8%, i.e. 1.46*10 grams. Only 3% of annual net-
Ih
production (1.75:k10 kcallyear) of plants is consumed by animals (Smil, 1991). This
energy flow supports both a metabolism of living matter and its diversity, i. e. the
irzforr~zatiorzbasis of evolution.
At the present time, the Technosphere of Earth (technological civilisation) spends
16
about 6.9:VO kcal/year (Krapivin, Svirezhev, Tarko, 1982) for its functioning and
evolution. This is mainly the energy of fossil fuels and nuclear energy. The part of
piire biosphere energy (water energy, wood) in this balance is small ( =5 %).
Obviously, Homo Sapiens is a component both of the Biosphere and the
Technosphere.
If we consider humans as animals, then all human energetic requirements are
h
satisfied through food, and the annual energy demand per individual is 10 kcal. For
9
the current population size of Homo Sapiens ( = 5*10 individuals) annual energy
I S
demand is equal to 5*10 kcallyear. When we compare these variables, one can see
that the energy c/enlcr~zdof iiznizki~zdas a biological species is currently equal to IN of
tlze totcrl biological energy of the Biosplzere. The Figure 1 represents the dynamics of
food energy demand for mankind, using the reconstruction of human population
growth from Neolithic era.
14
14 1*10
&
12 14 3'10 3.5*10
4*10 2*10
& &
&&
I I I I I I >16000BC. 1 1250 1400 1800 1990 Years
Neolithic Mongols Begining
revolution. defeat of industrial
From and revolution
gathering "Black
to producing Death"
in Europe
Fi,y.1 Ellerg))food dernnnd for mcolkirld. Source: (Krapivin, Svirezhev, Tarko, 1982)
Until Neolithic revolution, when a man had changed his behaviour from gathering to
producing food, he was a part of the Biosphere, no different from other animals. The
6 I 2
human population was 4*10 individuals, and required an energy supply of 4*10
kcallyear, which was 0.023 % of the energy flow for all animals.
According to the physical theory of fluctuations (Landau, Lifshitz, 1964) the
probability of fluctuation which could cause the elimination of Homo Sapiens is equal
to:
energy demandfor human population
P - exp{- ---------------------------------------------e - 1
energy supplyfor all animals
I2 16
= exp { -4*10 /1.75*10 } = 99.9%.
During the time period from Neolit until the origin of the Technosphere (XVIII
century) with its own source of energy (fossil fuels), Humans were the part of the
Biosphere only. They were competing with other species, and had increased their
IJ
energy demand up to 6:$10 kcallyear and the probability of their elimination
diminished:
Looking at these numbers one can say that as a biological species, Homo Sapiens
were very fortunate that they were not eliminated before the origin of the
Technosphere.
17
The primary biosphere net production (5.4'"10 kcallyear), is the energy flow which
supports the diversity of biota. Even now, the energy flow, used by the Technosphere
I0
(6.9'''lO kcallyear), is about 10% of the total primary production of the Biosphere.
The conclusion is: At the present moment, the Biosphere and Technosphere are in a
state of strong competition for common resources, such as land area and fresh water.
Pollution of the environment and reduction of biota diversity are the consequences of
this competition.
Since, the Biosphere (considered as an open thermodynamic system) is in the state
of dynamic equilibrium, then all entropy flows must be balanced too. Therefore, the
entropy excess, which is produced by the Technosphere, must be compensated by
llleails of two processes:
1. Biosphere degradation;
2. Change in the work of the Earth climate machine (in particular, increasing
of the Earth's average temperature).
Let LIS assume that all energy, consumed by the Technosphere, is transformed into
heat Q. Then the ann~lalentropy produced by the Technosphere, is equal to :
(The annual average temperature of Earth (T) is equal to 140C or 273+ 14=287 K.)
The full destruction of biota ,which, we assume, is equivalent to its full combustion,
gives us the following value of entropy:
If we assume that the energy consumption of the Technosphere will not be increased,
then this "anti-entropy storage" of biota is enough for compensation of the
technosphere entropy production during 100 years. If this technogenic entropy is used
for soil destruction, then the agony would take 300-400 years more, since the organic
matter storage in soil is 3-4 times larger than in biota.
9. INDUSTRY, ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT. THE MYTH OF
SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
In this section we would like to formulate several theses, which could provoke an
interesting discussion.
'3~1stainableDevelopment for the world community is the Brundtland Commission's
main idea.
'"i~stainable Development means:
- the developnlent of the world's industry and technology while saving its natural
environment;
'"i~stainable Development is an old idea. Let us remember that still V. Vernadsky
(see Appendix 3) spoke of the new global system called him the "Noosphere", which
is the result of the evolution of the Biosphere under the influence of human
technological civilisation.
Unfortunately this very attractive idea of Sustainable Development runs counter to
the basic laws of physics (the Second Law of Thermodynamics).
What arguments can be used for proof of this last thesis? Let us consider the entropy
balance of one area unit of the Biosphere, occupied some natural ecosystem (in detail
see Appendix 2). From the viewpoint of thermodynamics, any ecosystem is an open
thermodynamic system. Climax of the ecosystem corresponds to the dynamic
eqi~ilibrium(steady - state), when the entropy production in a system is balanced with
the entropy flow from the system to the environment. This work is being done by the
"entropy pump".
In other words, the clilnatic, hydrological, soil und otlzer erzvirorznzental corzditiorzs
([reorgcirzised irz slich a way, tlznt only ntlturul ecosystem, rvllich is specific for these
cor~clitior~sis at the eq~tilibri~irnstate.
Let 11ssuppose that the considered area is influenced by anthropogenic pressure, i.e.
a) The direct flow of artificial energy takes place (energy load).
b)There is the inflow of chemical elements inside the system (chemical load).
It is a typical impact of industry (and in broad sense, technological civilisation) on the
envii.onment.
* If we consider the main characters of technological civilisation, we can see that
they create the energy and chemical loads. These characters are:
a) the use of non-biosphere sources of energy (fossil fuels - are the traces of past
biospheres, not replenishable by the current biosphere; nuclear energy);
b) technological processes increase concentrations of chemical elements in the
Biosphere (metallurgy, chemical industry, etc.);
c) dispersion of chemical elements in comparison with their "biotic" concentrations.
:b All the above processes produce entropy which can not be "sucked" away by the
Biosphere's "entropy pump".
Since the ecosystem should also remain in dynamic equilibrium with its
environment, the entropy production (overproduction) of ecosystem should be
compensated by the outflow of entropy to the environment. This compensation can
occul- only at the expense of environmental degradation in this, and , may be other
location, I-esulted,for instance, from heat and chemical pollution, from mechanical
impact on the system. The value of this overproduction can be used ns the criterion
for elzvirolznrental degradation or as the "entropyfee" which has to be paid by society
(retrlly, slrfferi?rg frouz tlre degradation of envirolzmerzt) for moderlz industrial
teclarologies. Th~is
:I: Degradation of the environment is a unique way to compensate for the
overproduction of entropy.
:k The process of ove~productioncan be non-homogenous in space - there is the
spatial transportation of entropy. This transportation can be either natural or artificial.
The natural process of entropy transportation connects to the wide spreading of
different pollution by natural agents (wind, rivers, etc.). The artificial process is either
pi~rposefiilexport of industrial waste into other regions, or the import of low - entropy
matters (for example, fossil fuels) from other regions. Thus,
'? Slrstcrintlble Development is possihle only locally, in selective areas of the planet
trnd o~zlycis cr resrrlt of creating "entropy dumps" elsewhere.
REFERENCES
1. Alcanlo J., Kreileman, G.J.J., Krol, M., Zuidema, G., 1993. Modelling the Global
Society - Biosphere - Climate - System: Part 1: Model Description and Testing.
Water, Air, Soil Pollution . Kluwer: Dordrecht
2. Esser, G., 1991. Osnabruck Biosphere Model: Construction, structure, results. In:
Modern Ecology. Basic and Applied Aspects (Esser G., Overdieck, D., eds.). Elsevier,
Amsterdam, 3-30.
3. Forrester, J.W. , 1971. World Dynamics, Cambridge ,Mass., Wright-Allen Press,
142 p.p.
4. Kostitzin, V.A. 1935. Evolution de l'atmosphere: circulation organique, epoques
glaciares. Hermann, Paris. 125 p.p.
5. IO-apivin,V.F., Svirezhev, Yu.M. and Tarko, A.M. 1985. Mathematical Modelling
of the global biosphere processes. Moscow, Nauka, 237 p.p. (in Russian).
6. Meadows, D.H., Meadows, D.L. et al., 1972.The Limits to Growth: A Report for
the Club of Rome's Project on'the Predicament of Mankind, New York, Universe
Books, 205 p.p.
7. O~LIIII,E.P., 1983. Basic ecology, vol. 1. Philadelphia - New York, Saunders
College P~~blishing,320p.p.
8. O L I ~conllllon future. From one Earth to one World: A Report of the Brundtland
Commission. Oxford - New York, Oxford University Press, 1987.
9. Pimentel, D.(ed.), 1980. Handbook of energy utilization in agriculture. CRS Press,
Florida, 475pp.
10. Rotmans, J. 1990. IMAGE: an integrated model to assess the greenhouse effect.
Kluwer: Dordrecht.
1 1. S~~khachev,V.N. 1967. Structure and dynamics of biogeocoenoses. In: Structure
and types of matter., Moscow, Nauka, p. 560-577 (in Russian).
12. Svirezhev, Yu.M., 1976. Vito Volterra and the modern mathematical ecology. In:
Volterra, V., Mathematical theory of struggle for existence. Nauka, Moscow (the
postscript to the Russian translation of this book).
13. Svirezhev, Yu.M., 1977. Systems analysis of the Biosphere: Concepts of Russian
Classical School. Problems of Cybernetics, v.32, Moscow, Nauka, p.p.225 - 236 (in
Russian).
14. Svirezhev, Yu.M., 1989. Coevolution of the Biosphere and Mankind: the modern
globalistics and concepts of Russian Classical School. In: Ontogenesis, Evolution and
Biosphere. Moscow, Nauka, p.p. 254 (in Russian).
15. Svirezhev, Yu.M., 1990. Entropy as a measure of environmental degradation.
Proc. Int. Conf. on Contaillinated Soils, Karlsruhe, Germany.
16. Svirezhev, Yu.M., Krapivin, V.F. and Tarko, A.M. 1985. Modelling of the main
biosphere cycles. In: T.F.Malone and J.G.Roederer (Editors), Global Change.
Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, pp. 298-313.
17. Svirezhev, Yu.M., Harnos, Zs., Racsko, P., Semyonov, M., Szeidl, L., 1991.
Systems Analysis of the Hungarian Crop Production: a Report of Int. Ecol. Modelling
Group, Budapest, Academy Press.
18.Timofeev-Ressovsky, N.V., 1961. About some principles of the biohorological
units of classification. Proc. UF AS USSR, 27, p.p. 290-3 11 (in Russian)
19.Timofeev-Ressovsky, N.V., 1968.The Biosphere and Mankind. UNESCO Bull., n
I, p.p. 3 - 10.
20. Vernadsky,V.I.,1926. The Biosphere. Leningrad, Nauchtekhizdat (in Russian).
2 1. Vernadsky,V.I.,1977. Natural investigator reflections. vol.1. The scientific thought
as a planetary phenomenon. Nauka, Moscow (in Russian).
22. Vernadsky,V.I., 1978. Living matter. Nauka, Moscow (in Russian).
APPENDIX 1. SUSTAINABILITY
What does the term "sustainability" mean? Despite of its wide spreading, there is
no rigorous, mathematically correct definition of this concept. (Note, the same
situation takes place with term "stability", with one exclusion: there is the
mathematical theory of stability with Lyapunov definition.). Here we try to specify
these concepts.
We start from the implicate citation of the Brundtland Commission book "Our
common Future. From one Earth to one World". (Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford - New
York, 1987).
Sustainable development is not a fixed state of harmony, but a process of change in
which the exploitation of resources, the direction of investments, the orientation of
technological development, the instit~~tionalchange are made consistent with future as
well as present needs. Humans are able to make a development sustainable, to see that
it iileets our needs without compromising the future generation needs. There are limits
of course, based on the state of technology and social organisation and by the ability
of the Biosphere to neutralise the human impacts. Brundtland Commission believes
that both tech~lologyand biosphere can be both managed and improved, and lead to a
new era of economic growth.
"Development is growth", that is how sometimes it is perceived, but they are not
the same, of course. Sustainable development and sustainable growth are related.
The challenge of sustainable development is to find new products, processes and
technologies which are environmentally friendly, while satisfying our needs. In other
words, it must be insured that every economic and social decision takes into account
the physical world. On the other hand, there is the concept of "zero growth" (Club of
Rome concept), called also "stability concept" (not completely correct). Shortly this
concept can be presented in following words: to stop all pollution, population etc. at
the current level, hoping that the impacts on the environment are going to be
diminished with some time. But as we know now, the desired effect is not going to
happen, because of the complexity and uncertainty involved. Plus, the evolution
process (of the technosphere, in this case) is irreversible.
In order to explain the term "sustainability", some standard method is used: the
definition is expended, so that three forms of sustainability are considered: sustainable
use, sustainable growth and sustainable development.
If humans use living components of ecosystem (renewable resources) in ways that
allow nat~lral processes to replace what is used, the system will renew itself
indefinitely and human use will be "sustainable". The examples are the use of
resources for a long periods of time without degradation (western Amazonia, coastal
north-western North America, northern Australia) and such practices are often tied up
to strong cultural beliefs. There are few, if any examples of long-term sustainable use
by modern industrialised societies and even non-industrial societies have not always
been s ~ ~ c c e s s f ~ ~ lin sustaining exploitation of a resource, particularly when new area
have been colonised. The question "how modern societies can live and prosper
sustainability" is the great challenge, facing our generation.
Next, let us consider the term "sustainable growth", particularly its implications to
the limits of resources. Growth in human population and growth in per capita resource
consumption and the associated habitat degradation often happens without recognition
of the finite nature of Earth resources. A basic question, concerning sustainable
growth is whether economic growth could be sustained without population growth,
growth in consumption of resources, or continued destruction of habitat.
Sustainable development can be defined in a variety if ways and usually undefined.
It can mean sustainable use, in which case it is imperative, it can mean sustainable
growth of pop~llationand resource consumption, in which case it is impossible. The
main problem is, that unregulated growth in quest of sustainable development can be
potential for real economic and social improvement and could be fostered by
s~~stainableuse of renewable resources.
APPENDIX 2. THERMODYNAMIC CRITERION FOR ENVIRONMENTAL
DEGRADATION: ANTHROPOGENIC IMPACT ASSESSMENT
"... rzobody knows, what is the entropy in reality, that is
ivlly in the debate you will nlwnys have an advantage"
Jolzrz v012 Neunzann
There are no principal constraints for the application of thermodynamic
concepts to such physical-chemical systems as ecological systems. The problem is the
following:
tllere is rzot a clirect hoirzeo~norphismbetween the models (in n broad sense) in
tllerr~iodyrzarnicscutd the rrzodels irz ecology.
But despite all of this, if we would be able to formulate correctly the concept
of a thermodynamic system in relation to the ecosystem, it could be very useful
(Svirezhev et al., 1990). From the viewpoint of thermodynamics, any ecosystem is an
open thernlodynan~icsystem. Climax of the ecosystem corresponds to a dynamic
equilibrium, when the entropy pl-oduction inside the system is balanced with the
entropy o~~tflowto the environment. This work is being done by the "entropy pump".
What does this term mean?
1. Let us consider one unit of the Earth surface, which is occupied by some
nat~lralecosystem (i.e. meadow, steppe, forest, etc.) and is maintained in the
climax state. Natural periodicity in such a system is 1 year.
2. Internal energy of ecosystem is increased by a value of gross primary
production (which can be expressed in caloric units).
3. One part of this production is used for respiration (with the further
transformation into a heat).
4. Another part, on the one hand, turns into litter and other forms of soil organic
matter, and, on the other hand, is being taken by consumers.
5. But, since the system is in the equilibrium, an appropriate part of dead
organic matter in litter and soil has to be decomposed (releasing a place for a
"new " dead organic matter form annual net primary production). The "old"
dead organic matter has "to be burned" , so that the chemical energy of it is
transformed into the heat.
Consequently, the heat production dQ in a stable (climax) ecosystem at the state of
thermodynamic equilibrium with its environment (temperatures in ecosystem and its
environment are equal) is equal to the gross production P :
I1
dQ = P
In fact,
total heat yroductio~z =
heat enlissiorz of plant rnetabolisrn (heat ernitted during the process of respiration +
lzeat e~~zissiorzof consumers metabolism + heat ernission of the decorrlpostion of'old"
organic Inotter (which is equal to caloric equivale~ltof appropriate part of the
lzet yrit1za1-yprodllctio~z)
= gross (total)pri~naryprod~ictio~z.
The annual entropy production produced by ecosystem (internal production) is equal
to
S,, = dQ/T =P,/T,
where T is the mean "active" temperature (in K) at given point of the Earth , i.e. the
mean temperature of season, when the ecosystem functions. According to our
assumption, this production is compensated (in accordance with the equilibrium
condition) by the flow of the entropy due to the solar "entropy pump" with the power
at some point of the Earth is equal to S,,=P,/T
"Entropy pump" hypothesis:
tlze cli~~iatic,l~ydrological,soil and other enviro~znze~ztnlconditions are orgn~zizedat
gi~le~zpoi~ztill S L ~ C ~CI rvny, that o~zly~zaturalecosyste~n,rvhicll is specific for these
loc(11co~zditio~ls,is at tlze equilibriu~n.
If this area is ~ ~ n d e ranthropogenic pressure, i.e. there are:
a) direct inflow of artificial energy (energy load). We suppose that this inflow
is dissipated inside the system and transformed into the heat.
b) inflow of chemical elements with molar concentration C (i = 1,...,n)
8
(clle~izicalload) is being also dissipated inside the system .
Let the gross production of ecosystem under the anthropogenic pressure be P , the
ellergy lnncl be W and the concentrations of chemical elements in natural ("wild")
ecosystem be C .1,1
We assume that "natural" and "anthropogenic" ecosystems are connected by the
relation oj's~~ccessio~z.
A few words about the relation of successio~z.
Let us assume that the anthropogenic pressure has been removed. The succession
from the anthropogenic ecosystem towards the natural one has started. The next stage
of this succession would be "natural" ecosystem in our sense. Really, if the
i~nthropogenicpressure has been weak, the "natural" ecosystem (in our sense) is
typical for this locality "wild" ecosystem.
On the other hand, if the anthropogenic ecosystem is an agroecosystem, surrounded
by forest, successionaly close to its "natural" ecosystem is a grass-shrubs ecosystem
(not a forest).
The following "Gedankenexperiment" testify in the favour of this hypothesis. Let
us stop the energy and chemical fluxes into the ecosystem. As a result a succession
would take place at the site which tends towards the natural ecosystem type, specific
for the territory (grassland, steppe, etc.).
Under severe degradation a succession would take place also, but towards the
another type of ecosystem.
This is quite natural, since the environmental conditions has been perturbed (for
instance, as a result of soil degradation). So, if there is no input of artificial energy,
the equilibrium state for a given site (locality) will be presented by the natural
ecosystem, as the local characteristics of the "entlzropy pump" correspond exactly to
the nat~~raltype of ecosystem.
Nevertheless, there is a small incorrectness. When we discussed successionally
closed system above, we assumed implicitly that any stage of the succession is a
dynamic equilibrium. Since a succession is a transition process between two
stationary states, this statement is incorrect, but as far as we can suggest that the timescale
of ecological succession is much more than the time-scale of anthropogenic
processes, we can consider a succession as the thermodynamically quasi-stationar
process (simulatanously, we remain inside the model of equilibrium
thern~odynamics).However, if we suppose to construct a thermodynamic model of
succession, we should release the hypothesis on quasi-stationary transition.
The equation of the balance of entropy production (o)at the given site:
aT = W +RT C(C,ln(C/Cj,,) - (C, - C,,)) + P, - PI,, (3)
where R is the gas constant and C are some basic concentrations.
111
The values in (3) are not independent. For instance, P depends on Wand Ci. Since
we are not able to estimate this correlation in a framework of theory of
thermodynamics, we have to use the empirical correlation.
Since the ecosystem should also remain at a dynamic equilibrium with its
environment, the entropy production of ecosystem should be compensated by the
outflow of entropy to the environment. This compensation can occur only at the
expence of environmental degradation (o > O), resulted, for instance, from heat and
chemical pollution, from mechanical impact on the system. Therefore, the value o can
be ~ ~ s e das the criterion for environmental degradation or as the "enthropy fee" which
has to be paid by society (really, suffering from the degradation of environment) for
nod ern industrial technologies.
APPENDIX 3. VERNADSKY's CONCEPT OF THE BIOSPHERE
We nwst remember that the "new" concept of the Biosphere has the long-time
history. At the beginning of XIX century J.-B. Lamarque had introduced the term
"Biosphere". He considered it as the "Scope of Life" and some external Earth cover.
In 1875 the same term had been introduced in geology by E. Suss, who distinguished
the Biosphere as one of the Earth covers. But V. Vernadsky was the first person, who
had created the modern concept of the Biosphere. This concept was stated in two
lectures, issued in 1926. This concept seemed very new and incomprehensible at that
time, and started to be fully understood only recently.
While Vernadsky has formulated the so-called conceptual model of the biosphere,
its further development and formalization were provided by his disciple V.A.
Kostitzin (1935). Vernadsky specified the important role of global cycles of oxygen,
carbon, and nitrogen in the geological history of the planet, and, particularly, in the
evolution of the atmosphere and climate. A mathematical model describing these
global cycles was first formulated by Kostitsyn (1935). Based on the balance
eqi~ations,it allowed to evaluate global cycles in relation to periodical climate change.
While the concept of Vernadsky can be considered as maximally aggregated (it is
like a view on the biosphere from the outside), the concept of the biogeocoenosis
(BGC) developed by V.N.Sukachev (1967), related to the elementary units of the
biosphere, is basically atomistic in nature.
In accordance with definition of N.V.Timofeev-Ressovsky (1961), BGC is the part
qf' the Biosphere, hnvirlg no any essential ecological, geornorplzologic, hydrological,
r~licroclinzaticor any other bo~indaryinside itse& By this the whole biosphere of the
Earth is divided into elementary systems, naturally separated from one another. Due
to the reality of existence of these boundaries, BGCs can be considered as semiisolated
subsystems, function of averaging inside of BGC is quite natural. So, the
BGC dynamics can be described by comparatively few number of variables.
According to N. Basilevich (personal communication), there are about 50 000
BGCs on the Earth.
From the other side, BGC is the elementary unit of biogeochemical cycles in the
biosphel-e. Indeed, nitrogen and phosphorus cycles inside the BGC are practically
isolated (excluding denitriphication). If we consider only horizontal migration of
biogeochen~icalelements (without river transport), then the carbon cycle is also
isolated. We understand this isolation so, that all carbon (and partly nitrogen) cycles
of the BGC are connected with one another through the atmosphere and hydrosphere,
and their direct relationships or the intensity of their internal connections are
developed much weaker. It is significant that all the BGCs are dynamically similar for
every BGC we have the same structure of local biogeochemical cycles. Therefore,
if we describe the BGC dynamics as the dynamics of local biogeochemical cycles,
then the differences between the BGCs are the differences in parameters of the same
dynamic systems.
Finally, if, on the one hand the biosphere is a system of global biogeochemical
cycles, interacting with each other, then, on the other hand, the biosphere can be
considered as the system of loosely interacting elementary subsystems, subjected to
the same dynamic laws and regulations. So, we have the biosphere system as a
statistical ensemble.
In the sequel the Biosphere concept was developed by both Vernadsky himself?and
V. Kostitzin V. Sukhachev (1967), N. Timofeev-Resovsky and other Russian
scientists. The concept allows us to speak about the Russian classical school in
Globalistics. It is characteristic for this school, on the one hand, the tendency to the
concepti~algenei-alisation of acci~mulatedempirical data, and, on the other hand,
maximally delicate relation to speculative constructions and hypotheses. (Note, many
of contemporary global models suffer from it).
In accordance to Vernadsky, the Biosphere is an external Earth cover, the Scope of
Life (let us remember Lamarque). But he notes also that this definition (as just the
Scope of Life ) is not complete. The Vernadsky's Biosphere includes:
a) "Living incrtter".
b) "Bio-genic matter", i.e. organic and mineral substances, created by living matter
(for instance, coal, peat, litter, humus, etc.).
c)"Bio-inert matter", created by living organisms with inorganic Nature together
(water, atmosphere, sediment rocks).
There are two components in the Vernadsky concept of the Biosphere. The first is
the properly biosphere concept, which can be called some verbal model of the
Biosphere. The second component is the method of study of such complex system as
the Biosphere, called the "Empirical Generalisation Method" (EGM) by him.
Certainly, the EGM is essentially wider than some method for study of biosphere
processes, it is some general scientific method. Let us remember "Science is a
method" by Cartesius. Speaking modern language, the EGM is a typical method of the
systems analysis.
The empirical generalisation is based on real facts collected by inductive way, not
to leave the domain of these facts. On this first stage all possible scientifically
established facts about studied phenomenon must be collected. The next stage,
speaking modern language, is the aggregation of collected facts into some more
general categories called empirical generalisations. It gives us the possibility to move
from huge number of accumulated facts to considerably lesser number of statements,
that, in turn, allows to speak about the possibility to describe the studied large
(complex) system quantitatively.
Really, an empirical generalisation is a system of axioms, reflecting our level of
empii.ica1 knowledge, which could be used as a basis for any developed in the future,
forinal theory.
Hence, having the system of empirical generalisations, we can follow two ways,
when constructing models. Either we remain in the frameworks of this system,
constructing models called "phenomenological" ones, or, complementing some
hypotheses to the existing empirical generalisations, we shall get some new models.
In accordance to Vernadsky's opinion, the choice on set of these models - hypotheses
nlust be produced by the coincidence of predicted and observed again facts. If this
coincidence takes place then the hypothesis becomes an empirical generalisation of
higher level. From this point of view, for example, the practical astronomy of Ancient
World was a typical empirical generalisation, and ancient astronomers were
successfully using the phenomenological model created on its basement. The same
empirical generalisation underlain in the basis of two principally different
cosmogonies hypotheses by Ptolemeo and Copernicus. If and only if new facts had
appeared, the Copernicus cosmogony became a new empirical generalisation.
Therefore the same empirical generalisations can be a basis of different models.
But the reciprocal picture can be possible, when an empirical generalisation exists
separately, without some kind of hypotheses and explanations from viewpoint of
contemporary science. For example, the radioactivity phenomenon could not be
explained in frameworks of the Physics of XIX century.
What kind of empirical generalisations lays at the base of the Vernadsky's
Biosphere? (In this case we will call this system of axioms "Vernadsky Biosphere";
however, these axioms will be presented in a more formal form than in Vernadsky's
original work.)
I . During all geological periods on Earth, living organisms have never been
created directlyfrom inorganic matter.
This is the homogeneity axiom. Note, in mathematics, the operators, which
transforms a zero to zero, are called by homogeneous, too. There is the analogue of
this axiom in biology, called by the Redi Law ( "alive only from alive").
2. The existing facts cannot answer on the question about the origin of life on
Eclrth.
To get an answer, we must leave the frames of the Empirical Generalisation
Method and use different speculations. There is only one way to resolve this
contradiction, namely, to postulate the following: whatever was pre-biosphere history
of Earth, evolution of the Biosphere during all geological periods must give the
contemporary Biosphere as a result. This is the ergodicity axiom. It postulates that in
large degree the process of the Biosphere evolution is deterministic and stable in
respect to initial periods of its history.
3. There were no lifeless geological epochs.
This ineans that the contemporary living matter is genetically connected with living
matter of all the previous epochs. It is natural to call this axiom by the continuity
axiom .
The following empirical generalisations are, actually, some conservation laws. On
the other hand, since they generalise some equilibrium properties, of the Biosphere,
we can call them the axioms of stationary state).
4. The chenzical corrlposition of living matter was, in average, the smne as it
is 1 1 0 ~ .
5. Tlze nnzo~irltof living nzatter, in average, was tlze same for all geological
tinle.
These Vernadsky's generalisations cause a lot of objections at present times.
However, there are not enough new facts to formulate new empirical generalisations.
Therefore it is quite possible to consider the changes of the total amount of living
matter, observed in different geological epochs, as fluctuations around some constant
average level. (The same can be also said about chemical composition of living matter
and terrestrial core.)
And, at last, generalisations, which determined the principles of functioning
for biosphere mechanisms.
6. Energy, stored a~zdemitted by living organisnzs, is Solnr energy. Tlzro~igh
rlzer11(living or-garzisr~z.~)this energy is corztrolling clzernical processes in Earth core
(inpnrticulnrly, global biogeoc/zernical cycles).
7. Vegerntiorl plays the main role in as.sinlilatiorz and alloclltion of the Solar
erzergy.
If we agree with the axiom about constancy of the total amount of living matter
during the whole time of the Biosphere Life, then we have to assume that its evolution
went only on the way of structural complication of living matter, either by increasing
the number of species (there are 3'*1ohspecies on Earth), or by complication of the
stl-uctureof biological con~munities.